SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRICES FOR DEVELOPMENT PLANNING1

The paper reports experience in constructing social accounting matrices (SAMs) for three national economies, viz. Iran, Sri Lanka and Swaziland. The SAMs focus particularly on the distribution of income through disaggregation of household sector income and outlay accounts consistent with more conventional disaggregation of production, factors, etc. The SAMs were conceived as an initial step towards understanding income distribution as an integral part of the development process and have been developed in parallel with work on planning models. Both the Iran and Sri Lanka SAMs were constructed within the context of the International Labour Office, World Employment Programme: that for Iran was intended as a contribution to the work of the Comprehensive Employment Strategy Mission to Iran under WEP auspices; while the Sri Lanka SAM was more specifically a research oriented study. The Swaziland study was financed by the Overseas Development Ministry, London as a research activity. Some learning-by-doing was involved in the sequence of SAMs and the problems encountered, solutions adopted and lessons learned provide the main substance of the paper.     

Is there a link between alcohol consumption and the level of poverty?

In many developing countries, in addition to household income, there are a number of other socio-economic determinants of poverty. One such hidden socio-economic factor is alcohol consumption and some studies argue that there is a link between alcohol consumption and poverty. The main aim of this study is to measure the effects of alcohol consumption on the level of poverty in a systematic way. Using Sri Lanka as a case study, this article demonstrates that the consumption of various types of alcoholic beverages, particularly, the illegal beverages, has a significant positive association with the level of poverty. The findings of this study suggest that, in Sri Lanka, the consumption of illegal alcoholic beverages increases the likelihood of being in a poor household by 2–3%. The results of this study also find that households who are characterized as nonpoor but are just above the poverty line behave more like the poor rather than the nonpoor in terms of alcohol consumption. Some of the conclusions from this Sri Lankan case study can be applied to other developing countries.     

Determinants of youth not in education,employment or training: Evidence from Sri Lanka

The presence of a large proportion of youth neither in education, employment, or training (NEET) signals problems in a country’s education and labor market systems, and has wide‐ranging negative consequences, extending beyond the individual to the economy and society. Using Sri Lankan Labour Force Survey data for the year 2016 and binomial and multinomial logistic regression models, in this paper we provide the first estimates of NEET‐related risk factors in Sri Lanka. Key risk factors of becoming NEET include being female, being of ethnic and religious minorities, belonging to the older 20 to 24 age group, having very low or very high levels of education, being illiterate in English, belonging to a low‐income household or one headed by a male, having young children, and living in more remote areas. Our findings hold several important policy implications for reducing the NEET rate in Sri Lanka and engaging more youth in education and in the labor force.     

Impact of trade liberalisation on labour market and poverty in Sri Lanka. An integrated macro-micro modelling approach

This paper revisits the long standing controversy of trade and poverty linkage using a macro-micro modelling approach based on general equilibrium and microsimulation analytical frameworks. Sri Lanka, the first country in South Asia which undertook trade reforms more than three decades ago, is taken as a case in point in this study. The paper analyses the effects of trade liberalisation on income distribution and poverty in the urban, rural and estate sectors in Sri Lanka using the first ever microsimulation model built for the country in combination with a multi-household computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results reveal that without any fiscal policy adjustments a 100% tariff cut would lead to an increase in economic growth and a reduction in poverty incidence both in the short run as well as in the long run. However, when the tariff cut combined with the fiscal policy adjustments to maintain the budget neutrality, poverty outcomes showed mixed results. In contrast, results show that trade liberalisation increases the income inequality in Sri Lanka.     

Country-level Determinants of Intra-industry Trade （liT） between China and Sri Lanka

This study is based on country level determinants of liT between China and Sri Lanka. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the data in this study. Determinants of IIT from Sri Lanka to China do not depend upon economic growth rate, per capita income and size of GDP. However, variables like index of openness, size of the economy, per capita income, size of GDP, factor endowment, foreign direct investments have positive impact on IIT from Sri Lanka to China. Economic growth rate, index of openness, size of the economy, factor endowment, foreign direct investments were found to be positively related with intensity of IIT from China to Sri Lanka.     

Protecting Forests Through Farming. A Dynamic Model of Nontimber Forest Extraction

Forest resource extraction by local communities has been cited as a major impediment to the efficient management of protected forests. This paper develops a two sector dynamic model for farming and forest resource extraction by communities living in the forest periphery. The model assumes that land under forestry is constant and households allocate their time to farming and forestry. Comparative dynamic results suggest that higher prices for agriculture output, lower input prices, better knowledge of farming techniques and a lower discount rate may result in a higher equilibrium stock of forest resources. Tobit analysis with primary data collected from the Sinharaja forest in Sri Lanka provides supportive empirical evidence.     

Sri Lankan households a decade after the Indian Ocean tsunami

This study estimates the causal effect of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on household consumption and income in Sri Lanka 8 years after the event, using a difference‐in‐differences methodology and extensive household survey data. The analysis finds a strong association between the area‐wide tsunami disaster shock and increases in household income and consumption in the long term. The increase in consumption is much smaller than the observed increase in income; while the increase in income is mostly observed in nonagricultural wage income (and a decline in agricultural income). We also find that households in high‐income regions and lower‐damage districts experienced a much better recovery, in terms of income, than those in poorer regions or those districts that experienced more destruction. Deviating from the common observation on short‐term adverse impacts of catastrophic disasters in low‐ and middle‐income countries, these results are suggestive of a potential for long‐lasting and more successful recovery scenarios. Still, Sri Lanka received a very large amount of external assistance post‐tsunami—an amount that may not be replicable elsewhere. It is likely that this massive inflow of assistance, further helped by the end of the armed conflict in 2009, has contributed significantly to this relatively successful recovery.     

Unemployment In Developing Countries: Economist's Models in Light of Evidence From Sri Lanka

Observation of open unemployment in developing countries has lead some economist to formulate models which seek to explain this phenomenon. This paper examines unemployment in Sri Lanka in detail to see whether the assumptions and conclusions of economists' models are consistent with empirical data. In the case of Sri Lanka, these models provide a useful starting point but miss some of the essential details. Until one examines how the unemployed support themselves and how they spend their time, one's understanding of this phenomenon, as well as one's suggestions for policy changes, is necessarily incomplete. [820]     

Demand for Piped and Non-piped Water Supply Services: Evidence from Southwest Sri Lanka

In many countries water supply is a service that is seriously underpriced, especially for residential consumers. This has led to a call for setting cost recovery policies to ensure that the tariffs charged for water supply cover the full cost of service provision. Identification of factors driving piped and non-piped water demand is a necessary prerequisite for predicting how consumers will react to such price increases. Using cross-sectional data of 1,800 households from Southwest Sri Lanka, we estimate water demand functions for piped and non-piped households using appropriate econometric techniques. The (marginal) price elasticity is estimated at  − 0.15 for households exclusively relying on piped water, and at  − 0.37 for households using piped water but supplementing their supply with other water sources. The time cost elasticity for households relying on non-piped water only is estimated at  − 0.06 on average, but varying across sources. For both piped and non-piped households, we find evidence of substitutability between water from different sources. We discuss the implications of these results in terms of pricing policy.     

Does asymmetry in price transmission exist in the rice market in Sri Lanka?

This study analyses asymmetry in price transmission between wholesale and retail rice markets in Sri Lanka, using the threshold autoregressive model. We found that the wholesale and the retail rice markets in Sri Lanka are integrated, with price changes moving from the wholesale to the retail market. However, the price transmission process is asymmetric. In particular, price increases at the wholesale market transmit immediately to the retail market while price decreases transmit more slowly. Parameter stability test and follow-up analysis indicated that the price transmission process is asymmetric only during periods of price surges, suggesting that the rice market is not efficient during these periods.     

The effects of climatic variation on rice production in Sri Lanka

We study the responsiveness of rice production to climatic variation using a recent pseudo-panel data set from Sri Lanka. Output per farm is modelled as a non-linear function of temperature and rainfall (and other standard controls) using fixed effects regressions. We find that both climatic variables have concave, non-monotonic effects upon production, and that output is close to maximized at current climatic values. This implies that variations in growing conditions are likely to have negative effects upon production. Random simulations are used to model these impacts under various climate change scenarios, and we find that increasing temperatures will adversely affect rice production much more than varying rainfall, although the effects of a small ceteris paribus rise in temperature are positive. As rice production is a key component in economic output for Sri Lanka and other developing countries, our results have implications for food policy and poverty management in the future.     

Exchange market reform,inflation, and fiscal deficits

This paper examines the effects of exchange market reform on inflation and quasifiscal deficits in developing countries. The first part presents the conceptual framework, which identifies a variety of implicit taxes and subsidies that must be taken into account (in addition to implicit taxes on exports, as emphasized by Pinto (1991)) in assessing the fiscal and inflationary effects of exchange market reform. A formula that attempts to capture explicitly these taxes and subsidies is derived. The second part applies the formula to six countries (Guyana, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Sierra Leone, and Sri Lanka). The results suggest that exchange market reform may lead to a significant reduction in reliance on the inflation tax.     

ACCOUNTING FOR SRI LANKA'S EXPENDITURE INEQUALITY 1980–2002: REGRESSION-BASED DECOMPOSITION APPROACHES

Sri Lanka liberalized its economy in 1977, paving the way for more rapid economic growth and higher rates of job creation. But tensions over distributional issues still plague the body politic. This paper investigates the evolution of Sri Lanka's expenditure distribution in the period 1980–2002 and uses three decomposition methodologies—the Fields, the Shapley value decomposition, and Yun's unified method—to determine underlying causes. The study finds that while average adjusted expenditure rose across strata, the rich experienced more rapid expenditure growth leading to greater inequality. Inequality change was driven by differential access to infrastructure, education, and occupation status. Demographic factors, including ethnicity, and spatial factors contributed very little. The study recommends policies that ensure more equitable access to income earning assets such as education and infrastructure services, and that contain the rise in inequality along sectoral, regional, and ethnic fault lines.     

A test of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates for Sri Lanka

This paper tests the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates for Sri Lanka. The data support the hypothesis that forward and spot rates are cointegrated suggesting a stochastic trend in the structure of interest rates. However, the hypothesis that forward rates are unbiased predictors of future spot rates is rejected.     

ACCOUNTING FOR SRI LANKA'S EXPENDITURE INEQUALITY 1980–2002: REGRESSION-BASED DECOMPOSITION APPROACHES

Sri Lanka liberalized its economy in 1977, paving the way for more rapid economic growth and higher rates of job creation. But tensions over distributional issues still plague the body politic. This paper investigates the evolution of Sri Lanka's expenditure distribution in the period 1980–2002 and uses three decomposition methodologies—the Fields, the Shapley value decomposition, and Yun's unified method—to determine underlying causes. The study finds that while average adjusted expenditure rose across strata, the rich experienced more rapid expenditure growth leading to greater inequality. Inequality change was driven by differential access to infrastructure, education, and occupation status. Demographic factors, including ethnicity, and spatial factors contributed very little. The study recommends policies that ensure more equitable access to income earning assets such as education and infrastructure services, and that contain the rise in inequality along sectoral, regional, and ethnic fault lines.     

Erasing Tamil Eelam: De/Re Territorialisation in the Global War on Terror

This paper considers the Sri Lanka/Tamil Eelam conflict with attention to how its dramatic end can be explained through postcolonial territorial politics. I argue discourses of postcolonial nationalism and global terrorism aligned along domestic, regional, and international political levels to enable a military victory for the government of Sri Lanka. At the domestic political level, there was a change in government along with a split and defection within the LTTE command. At the international level, there was a turn away from Western allies due to their perceived inability to understand the needs of the Asian front in the global war on terror (GWOT). This led to a geopolitical realignment with China, a state sympathetic to fighting terrorism and secession movements. The case is studied under a theoretical lens of “de/re territorialisation” from Gilles Deleuze and Felix Guattari. De/re territorialisation reveals simultaneous efforts to inscribe nationalist meaning into territory in a constant process of “becoming.”     

THE CO‐OPERATIVE REFORM PROCESS IN TANZANIA AND SRI LANKA

ABSTRACT**: This article reports on findings from a three year study of co‐operatives in Sri Lanka and Tanzania. The article asks three questions: why do co‐operative sectors need reforming; what is the co‐operative reform process; and why has reform succeeded in some countries but not others? It provides a short history of co‐operatives in three phases: the colonial period, the post‐colonial nationalist period and the period of market liberalisation. It shows that the control exercised by colonial governments was deepened under nationalist governments, with co‐operatives becoming parastatals. Liberalisation brought a sustained attempt by international agencies to reassert the distinctive nature of co‐operatives as member‐owned businesses. However, co‐ops were ill‐prepared to adjust to a competitive market and the lifting of government regulation; many failed, some were corrupted, while a few became truly member‐controlled. The article draws on documentary analysis and key informant interviews to provide accounts of the reform process in Tanzania and Sri Lanka. It finds that the process is incomplete and often contested.     

On Corruption and Countervailing Actions in Three South Asian Nations

We argue that readily available data and information in newspaper stories enable one to discern the nature and patterns of corruption and to understand actions taken to combat corruption. We analyze and compare numerous newspaper reports of corruption in India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. Using analysis derived from existing theory of corruption, we demonstrate how information in news accounts improves our understanding of corruption. Bangladesh had more coercive corruption, with countervailing actions dominated by direct actions of victims. In India and Sri Lanka, corruption was generally collusive, with countervailing actions on behalf of victims frequently leading to legal actions and investigative reports.     

Consumption patterns in Sri Lanka: a decomposition analysis

Knowing consumer reaction to changes in prices and income is important in formulating microeconomic policies, such as public utility prices and commodity taxation. This paper analyses the consumption patterns of consumer goods grouped into eight broad commodities in Sri Lanka during the period 1975–2016, using a system-wide framework. The analysis indicates that Sri Lankan consumers allocate more than half of their income to food and nearly four fifths of their income to food, housing, and transport combined. The estimated income and own-price elasticities reveal that food, housing, medical care, and transport are necessities; clothing, durables and recreation are luxuries; and demand for all commodities is price inelastic except for recreation. To investigate the consumption growth pattern, we decomposed the growth in consumption and change in budget shares of the eight commodities into income, relative price, and change in taste. We also simulated per capita consumption expenditure of the eight commodities under various policy scenarios and found that income growth has played a significant role in Sri Lankan consumption patterns.