利率变动对中国房地产市场影响的实证分析

文章通过回顾中国近年来的利率调整变动状况,从实证角度详细分析利率变动对房地产供给市场、房地产需求市场以及土地市场的影响,总结作为宏观调控重要手段之一的货币政策的核心———利率对房地产的宏观调控作用,并得出相应的规律性。     

Correlation and Volatility Dynamics in International Real Estate Securities Markets

We study international correlation and volatility dynamics of publicly traded real estate securities using monthly returns from 1984 and 2006. We also examine, for comparison, the correlations among the corresponding stock markets. A multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model captures the time-varying correlation within the full period. We confirm lower correlations between all real estate securities market returns than those between the stock market returns themselves. Some significant variations and structural changes in the correlation structure happened within the sample period. We detect a strong and positive connection between real estate securities market correlations and their conditional volatilities. We also find the international correlation structure of real estate securities and the broader stock market are linked to each other. Our results have economic motivations regarding the potential integration of international real estate securities markets and the possibility of including information on changing correlations and volatilities to design more optimal portfolios for international real estate securities.

利率、汇率调整对房地产价格的影响——基于理论与经验的研究

本文首先构建了适合我国国情的房地产价格与利率、汇率关系模型，然后利用该模型对我国12个城市房地产价格与利率、汇率的关系进行实证研究。研究结果显示，利率与房地产价格呈负向关系；汇率与房地产价格之间具有相同的变化趋势，与理论分析有较大差异，表明我国金融制度仍存在缺陷，逐步完善金融市场才能更好地发挥利率和汇率调节经济的功能。因此，我们认为房地产价格保持相对稳定是房地产业安全运行的关键，在完善的金融制度下正确的利率和汇率政策能在此方面发挥重要作用。     

实际利率与区域经济增长差异的实证分析

本文在现有文献基础上就利率与区域经济增长差异之间的关系进行理论分析;运用1986-2004年的数据,对实际利率水平与区域经济增长差异进行实证分析检验,并针对当前的实际利率水平和宏观经济背景,对区域经济发展提出相关的建议。     

Real Estate Risk Exposure of Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts

This study examines the linkage between equity real estate investment trust (REIT) returns and the private real estate factor. The results reveal a tighter connection between REIT and the private real estate market starting from 1993. In addition, large-cap REITs seem to behave more like real estate than do small-cap REITs. Overall, the results are consistent with three notions: (1) that institutional investors provide information-gathering services (Bradrinath et al., Rev. Financ. Stud., 8:401–430, 1995), (2) that a more sophisticated investor base improves information flow, and (3) that a high degree of participation from institutional investors strengthens the linkage between REIT returns and the underlying real estate factor (Ziering et al., The evolution of public and private market investing in the new real estate capital markets, Prudential Real Estate Investors, Parsippany, NJ, 1997).

物业税税基评估方法及其相关问题的解决

税基评估是物业税实施的关键环节。本文首先阐述了物业税税基评估方法,在此基础之上,对税基评估的数据库问题进行了较为深入地探讨,最后,结合我国国情,指出了我国物业税税基评估面临的信息困局,并提出了相应的解决方法。     

境外房地产保有课税的税基评估比较

物业税属于房地产保有阶段课征的税种。本文对境外房地产保有阶段税制及税基进行了比较,分析了物业税税基评估的特点和种类,并对房地产税基评估中遇到的问题进行了梳理,提出了我国未来物业税税基评估可能遇到的问题的解决途径。     

重视房地产持有环节税的作用 积极推进房地产税制改革

开征房地产持有环节税①是我国财政体制改革的一项重要内容。本文探讨了现阶段在我国开征房地产持有环节税可以实现的政策目标:构建地方税主体税种,完善分税制财政体制;调节居民收入分配和财富存量,缩小贫富差距;稳定房地产价格,促进房地产市场健康发展;促进节约利用土地资源,保护耕地红线;缓和购房压力,促进一般性消费增长,优化消费结构。     

Conditional Volatility of Equity Real Estate Investment Trust Returns: A Pre- and Post-1993 Comparison

We examine the dynamic behavior of Equity Real Estate Investment Trust (EREIT) volatility in a GARCH context 1972–2006 using monthly EREIT returns, and comparing volatility performance for “early” Equity REITs 1972–1992 with that of “modern” EREITs 1993–2006. Consistent with findings for conventional firms, we find that EREIT conditional volatility is time-varying, persistent, and predictable. There is a positive relationship between expected return and expected risk in EREIT stocks pre-1993, but the relationship disappears after 1993. We find no evidence that negative shocks affect EREIT volatility differently from positive ones in either time period. Different from reported results for conventional firms, we find that changes in the conditional volatility of fundamental macroeconomic variables have strong explanatory value for future changes in EREIT volatility. Finally, comparing EREIT volatility performance with volatility in the Russell 2000 Index, a proxy for small stocks, we find that EREIT volatility behaves differently from that of small stocks in many respects, indicating that risks in the small stock index cannot effectively proxy for risks in the EREIT market.

利率和汇率变动对保险业影响的比较分析

利率和汇率两种重要政策工具通过影响国民经济增长速度对保险需求产生影响,并通过作用于保单预定利率及投资收益率直接影响着保险企业经营状况及资本充足率。其中,利率的不利变动对保险企业的影响更大,甚至可能危机企业的生存,中国寿险业严重的利差损负担即源于保单预定利率的降低;因地域及目的的不同,汇率对保险企业的影响比较复杂,企业可主动采取的风险防范措施较多。保险企业应加强人才引进和培养,强化对利率、汇率变动趋势的研究,防患于未然;并积极开拓投资渠道,创新风险管理方法,做好资产负债匹配。     

物业税开征的先决条件之一:房地产产权制度的改革与完善

明晰的房地产产权关系以及相应完善的管理制度是开征物业税不可缺少的重要条件。本文探讨了物业税与房地产产权管理的一般关系,针对我国房地产产权管理现状存在的问题,提出了开展房地产产权登记普查、逐步统一城乡房地产产权管理制度等政策建议。     

台湾地区房屋土地保有环节税收情况

台湾地区对土地和房屋分别征税,在保有和交易环节分别设置税种。本文在介绍台湾地区房屋、土地保有环节税收情况的基础上,对大陆地区房地产税收征管工作提出了几点建议。     

我国房地产开发资金来源结构状况分析

本文拟就我国房地产开发资金来源结构状况进行分析,从中可以看出房地产业融资渠道单一,风险过度集中于银行,房地产投融资金融创新滞后,以及房地产开发企业自有资金不足的现象是当前我国房地产投融资市场存在的较为普遍的问题.针对这些问题,本文相应地提出了拓宽房地产融资渠道、加大金融产品创新力度、完善房地产金融立法等一系列政策建议.     

刍议物业税的差别税收政策

在物业税的税制设计中涉及一些差别税收政策,包括土地和房屋建筑物的差别税收政策、地区之间的差别税收政策以及对不同对象税收优惠的差别税收政策。本文对这些差别税收政策的效应进行了分析,并在此基础上提出了物业税税制设计的相关建议。     

房地产税收调控政策的效应分析与建议

本文梳理了2005年以来国家针对房地产投资规模过大和部分城市住房价格上涨过快状况而出台的多项税收调控措施,并通过理论和实证分析认为,房地产税收调控政策的重点应从目前对供给方征税转向对需求方征税,即在房地产保有环节征税。为此,应尽快建立起全面准确的房地产信息资料和监控系统,加快推进物业税(不动产税)的改革。     

对我国房地产税制改革的几点建议

本文认为,房地产税制度的建立和完善程度与经济发达程度有一定关系;一些发达国家和地区在房地产税制度建设、评估机构设置、纳税人提出反对及上诉程序等方面的做法及经验值得我国借鉴;最后本文结合我国国情,对我国房地产税制改革提出了几点建议。     

物业税优惠政策的比较研究

本文对市场经济发达国家物业税的优惠政策进行了比较研究,总结了其主要立法精神与具体形式。在汲取国外物业税优惠政策实施的经验教训、结合我国城镇现行财产税收征收管理实际的基础上,提出了我国物业税制度的设计可选择“宽税基、低税率、严优惠、强征管”的整体思路,并以此为依据,设计了我国物业税的具体优惠政策和制度。     

论物业税税基评估主体的选择

在物业税开征之前,确立物业税税基评估主体并对其性质予以确认是一个亟待解决的问题。本文借鉴国际经验,通过比较分析,认为我国应该选择准政府性质的专属评估机构来负责税基评估工作。同时,应由物业税税基评估师对物业税税基进行准确评估。     

Investing for the Long-run in European Real Estate

We calculate optimal portfolio choices for a long-horizon, risk-averse investor who diversifies among European stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash, when excess asset returns are predictable. Simulations are performed for scenarios involving different risk aversion levels, horizons, and statistical models capturing predictability in risk premia. Importantly, under one of the scenarios, the investor takes into account the parameter uncertainty implied by the use of estimated coefficients to characterize predictability. We find that real estate ought to play a significant role in optimal portfolio choices, with weights between 12 and 44%. Under plausible assumptions, the welfare costs of either ignoring predictability or restricting portfolio choices to traditional financial assets only are found to be in the order of 150–300 basis points per year. These results are robust to changes in the benchmarks and in the statistical framework.      

法国个人房地产税体系透视

在法国,与个人房地产相关的税种包括居住税、建筑土地税、空置住宅税、财富税。法国的个人房地产税在税制要素、税基评估和税收争议等方面形成了相对合理的制度安排,其实践经验对我国开征物业税有借鉴意义。