金融周期对房地产价格的影响——基于SV-TVP-VAR模型的实证研究

本文利用2004-2016年的季度数据构建金融周期综合指数,用以描述金融市场景气程度;使用SV-TVP-VAR模型,围绕金融周期对我国房地产价格的影响进行实证研究。结果表明,金融周期对房地产价格的影响具有明显的时变性特征:2008年以前金融市场繁荣对房价有稳定推升作用,2008年后该影响持续弱化;与之类似,实体经济对房价的影响同样自2008年起逐渐减小。这意味着,在经济增长方式转变和经济结构调整的过程中,我国房地产价格对经济金融冲击的敏感度已经大幅下降,金融扩张可能难以再通过房地产市场有效带动实体经济的繁荣,相反,其反而可能导致银行贷款不良率的攀升,在金融系统内积累系统性风险。我国针对房地产的宏观调控政策不仅对控制贷款不良率的提高体现出积极作用,而且自2008年国际金融危机以来,产出及房价的随机波动率均呈显著下降趋势,风险得到有效控制。未来应更加重视房地产市场调控在宏观审慎政策框架中的重要地位,遏制房地产金融化泡沫化势头,防范房地产市场引发金融危机。     

New development: Estate agents’ perspectives of anti-money laundering compliance—four key issues in the UK property market

ABSTRACT

In recent years, money laundering in the property market has come under scrutiny across the world, attracting significant attention from governments, regulators, policy-makers, NGOs, academics and others. However, there remain gaps in knowledge, which is particularly important given practical difficulties in the implementation of anti-money laundering (AML) obligations. This article offers new insights into such implementation in the context of the UK AML regime and the real estate sector. The authors analyse four important issues relating to the UK AML obligations: customer due diligence (CDD); reporting suspicion; training requirements; and letting (rental) agents.     

中国货币政策传导变量的区域结构效应研究

本文基于2007-2019年的数据实证分析利率、信贷、汇率、股票市场和房地产市场等货币政策传导变量对中国八大综合经济区经济增长和物价的影响。研究发现,中国货币政策传导存在明显的区域非对称效应;银行信贷和利率渠道对各区域经济增长和物价影响的方向基本一致,影响幅度存在较大差异;汇率对各区域经济增长、物价影响的方向和幅度均存在非对称性;股票市场价格和房地产价格除对个别区域经济增长率和物价有一定影响外,对大部分地区影响幅度不大,但区域非对称效应比较明显。     

房地产业对宏观经济的影响机制研究

房地产的投资、消费双重属性和资金密集等特点,使得房地产业与居民消费、投资、金融等诸多方面都密切关联,进而对宏观经济产生重要影响.本文分别从消费投资渠道、银行信贷渠道、产业关联渠道、市场调控渠道和微观主体行为等各个角度,研究了房地产业对宏观经济的直接、间接影响,并总结了多渠道综合的影响机制.     

Convergence of Real Capital Market Interest Rates—Evidence from Inflation Indexed Bonds

This paper investigates the convergence of long‐term ex ante real interest rates (RIRs) obtained from Canadian, French, UK, and U.S. inflation indexed government bonds. In contrast to previous research, our evidence suggests full convergence in the long run and, hence, capital market integration. For the same sample period, global convergence is rejected for RIRs measured in conventional terms. From these results, we conclude that previous tests of the long‐run real interest rate parity might have suffered from weak measurement of real capital market interest rates.     

Equity and fixed income markets as drivers of securitised real estate

This paper re-examines the sensitivity and importance of interest rates and stock market price behavior on securitised property by decomposing their long-run impact between transient and permanent effects. This is achieved in a framework that accounts for endogenously determined structural breaks within the data. The results provide a different perspective on the relationship securitised property has with these markets and sheds new light on their long-run interaction. Once structural breaks are accounted for the results show that securitised property is driven by both interest rate and stock market changes, regardless of the type of securitised property being examined. Evidence also points to companies with increased debt-to-asset ratios and companies that are tax-exempt entities are still all influenced by both the equity and fixed income markets over the long-run period, although the influence these factors have do vary across time.     

Spillovers in risk of financial institutions

ABSTRACT

We analyse the total and directional spillovers across a set of financial institution systemic risk state variables: credit risk, real estate market risk, interest rate risk, interbank liquidity risk and overall market risk. We examine the response of the spillover levels, within the set of systemic risk state variables, to a number of events in the financial markets and to initiatives undertaken by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The relationship between the time-varying spillovers and policy-related events is analysed using a multiple structural break estimation procedure and looking at the temporary increases in the spillover indices. Our sample includes five European Union countries: core countries France and Germany, periphery countries Spain and Italy, and a reference country, the UK. We show that national stock markets and real estate markets have a leading role in shock transmission across selected state variables. However, the role of the other variables reverses over the course of the crisis. We document that the total and net spillover indices react strongly to the events relating to financial assistance packages in Europe.     

U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises and International Securitized Real Estate Markets

This paper examines the impact of U.S. monetary policy surprises on securitized real estate markets in 18 countries. The policy surprises are measured by both the surprise changes to the target federal funds rate (the target factor) and surprises in the future direction of the Federal Reserve monetary policy (the path factor). The results show that most international securitized real estate markets have significantly positive responses to surprise decrease in current or future expected federal funds rates, though such responses vary greatly across countries. Also, while the U.S. securitized real estate market reacts mainly to the target factor, foreign securitized real estate markets react to the path factor. Furthermore, we find that the cross-country variation in the response to the target factor is correlated with the country’s exchange rate regime and its degree of real economic and particularly financial integration, while the cross-country variation in the response to the path factor is mainly related to the country’s degree of financial integration.     

房产税对宏观经济的影响效应研究

本文扩展Dong et al.(2019)通过企业家对住房地产和实体经济投资进行资产组合决策,把房价、投资、消费和产出等重要经济指标纳入主流新凯恩斯框架,考虑银行能否区分贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业两种情形,分析了房产税引入住房市场前后对宏观经济的影响效应。研究结果表明:开征房产税对房地产开发投资、房价和新住房生产具有明显的抑制作用,对实体经济投资则具有正挤入效应增加和负抵押效应减少的双重效应。从短期看,当银行无法区分企业贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业时,因前期的负抵押效应大于正挤入效应,总实物资本减少,产出下降;当可清晰区分二者时,负抵押效应变为小于正挤入效应,总实物资本增加,产出上升。鉴于推出房产税对宏观经济影响较为复杂,应充分权衡利弊,采取必要辅助措施趋利避害。     

Pricing Property Index Linked Swaps with Counterparty Default Risk

This paper extends Bjork and Clapham (Journal of Housing Economics 11:418–432, 2002) model for pricing real estate index total return swaps. Our extension considers counterparty default risk within a first passage contingent claims model. We price total return swaps on property indices with different levels of default risk. We develop this model under same assumptions as Bjork and Clapham (Journal of Housing Economics 11:418–432, 2002) and find that total return swap price is no longer zero. Total return swap payer must charge a spread over the market interest rate that compensates him for the exposure to this additional risk. Based on commercial property indices in the UK, we observe that computed spreads are much lower than a sample of quotes obtained from one of the traders in the market.     

房产税对宏观经济的影响效应研究

本文扩展Dong et al.(2019)通过企业家对住房地产和实体经济投资进行资产组合决策,把房价、投资、消费和产出等重要经济指标纳入主流新凯恩斯框架,考虑银行能否区分贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业两种情形,分析了房产税引入住房市场前后对宏观经济的影响效应。研究结果表明:开征房产税对房地产开发投资、房价和新住房生产具有明显的抑制作用,对实体经济投资则具有正挤入效应增加和负抵押效应减少的双重效应。从短期看,当银行无法区分企业贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业时,因前期的负抵押效应大于正挤入效应,总实物资本减少,产出下降;当可清晰区分二者时,负抵押效应变为小于正挤入效应,总实物资本增加,产出上升。鉴于推出房产税对宏观经济影响较为复杂,应充分权衡利弊,采取必要辅助措施趋利避害。     

Local property tax differences and business real estate values

This article posits a model of the effect of differences in changes in local property tax rates on changes in the business real estate tax base. It is also hypothesized that changes in the tax base influence changes in the property tax rate. Empirical findings for metropolitan Chicago are that both differences in property tax changes and levels have large effects on the growth of the value of business real estate. Also, changes in the property tax rate are found to depend upon changes in the tax base as well as the property tax level and its previous change.     

Mortgage Fund Flows, Capital Appreciation, and Real Estate Cycles

This paper provides strong evidence for a positive feedback loop between property prices and mortgage supply, using data from the U.S. commercial property and mortgage markets over the 1991 to 2011 period. The empirical analyses control for the endogeneity of property prices, mortgage flows, mortgage interest rates, and loan to value ratios, and provide two main findings. First, exogenous increases in mortgage supply, measured with the growth of the CMBS market, significantly reduce property cap rates. Second, volatility of past price changes and the “biggest loss” in property values in the past significantly affect mortgage supply. This positive feedback loop may be an important driving force for real estate cycles.     

Real term structure forecasts of consumption growth

This paper employs an empirically tractable affine term structure model of real interest rates to examine the predictive ability of the real short-term interest rate and its term spread with a longer-term interest rate to predict future real consumption growth. The estimates of the model provide support of the consumption smoothing hypothesis. The paper shows that the real term structure is spanned by two mean-reverting state variables. The mean-reverting property of these variables can consistently explain the forecasting ability of the short-term real rate and term spread to forecast future consumption growth rate, over different horizons ahead. Although the risks associated with changes in these variables are both priced in the market, they are not volatile enough to obscure the information of the real term structure about future real consumption growth.     

新常态下中国货币政策的宏观经济效应研究 ——基于不同中介目标的实证检验

以中国2003-2020年的季度宏观经济数据为样本,通过构建时变系数向量自回归模型分析银行间同业拆借利率、M2、信贷规模、社会融资规模四项货币政策中介目标对实际产出、通货膨胀、房地产市场以及股票市场的动态影响效应.结果表明:同业拆借利率对产出的影响呈增强趋势,M2、信贷以及社会融资规模等数量型货币政策对产出的影响效应更显著;信贷与社会融资规模对通货膨胀的影响效应较显著;同业拆借利率对房地产市场的短期影响效应较大;M2、信贷与社会融资规模对房地产与股票市场的长期影响效应较大.     

Real Estate Ownership, Leasing Intensity, and Value: Do Stock Returns Reflect a Firm’s Real Estate Holdings?

Little is known about the effects of real estate ownership and leasing on the stock return characteristics of public firms. In this study, we first examine the sensitivity of retail firm returns to a real estate factor over the period 1998?C2008. The retail industry is chosen because of the significant use of real estate in a typical retail firm??s production function. Consistent with our expectations, retail stocks exhibit positive real estate risk exposure, even after controlling for sensitivity to general market risk as well as other standard risk factors. The second part of our analysis examines whether the intensity of real estate ownership and the use of off-balance operating leases to finance real property holdings are reflected in the market and real estate betas of retail stocks. We find that greater use of off-balance sheet operating leases is associated with higher market betas. In fact, the use of operating leases appears to have a larger impact on sensitivity to market risk than does the use of on-balance sheet debt. Our findings also confirm our hypothesis that real estate intensive firms display significantly greater exposure to a real estate factor. Moreover, our results strongly suggest that investors are fully aware of the risk associated with off-balance sheet operating leases.     

租购并举、货币政策与房地产市场波动

为补足房地产市场发展短板,有效解决房地产市场结构性失衡,我国提出加快建立租购并举的住房制度,健全住房租赁市场,满足居民居住需求。本文通过构建一般均衡模型,分析住房租赁市场发展对宏观经济的影响,并采用1998~2010年全国30个大中城市季度数据分析在房地产市场化改革前期房地产市场结构失衡对宏观经济的影响,采用2002~2019年全国月度数据分析实施租购并举住房制度后房地产市场结构改善情况下,宏观经济变化以及货币政策对房地产市场的调节效应。研究结果表明:第一,房地产市场化改革前期,住房以"居住"属性为主,"投资"属性相对较弱;第二,租购并举制度下房租房价之间"剪刀差"的缩小能够有效改善房地产市场失衡的状况;第三,货币政策对房地产市场具有显著影响,但不同的货币政策会产生截然相反的作用。     

Bank risk and real estate: An asset pricing perspective

While a number of papers have investigated the time-series behavior ofex post bank stock returns and real estate returns, no study has comprehensively studied the relationship betweenex ante risk premiums on both assetsand the time-varying nature of such premiums in relationship to economic and real estate market conditions. In this study, we investigate how the changing nature of bank risk taking, especially in the real estate market, has affected theex ante pricing of risk in the market for bank stocks. We find that the time variation in bank risk premiums are partly determined by interest rate and real estate market conditions. We also discover that the real estate factor has been important for banks in the 1980s.     

Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: A joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves

This paper analyses the UK interest rate term structure over the period since October 1992, when the United Kingdom adopted an explicit inflation target, using an affine term structure model estimated using both government bond yields and survey data. The model imposes no-arbitrage restrictions across nominal and real yields, which enables interest rates to be decomposed into expected real policy rates, expected inflation, real term premia and inflation risk premia. The model is used to shed light on major developments over the period, including the impact of Bank of England independence and the low real bond yield ‘conundrum’.     

沈阳市房地产市场发展情况调查

截至2011年9月份,沈阳市房地产市场出现了明显变化,为了解房地产市场的这种变化对金融业的影响,本文选取了我市10家金融机构及12家房地产开发公司并对其进行了实地调研。调研显示：受国家宏观调控政策的影响,我市房地产成交量开始下降,但价格略有上升。由于我市房地产价格相对较低,市场刚性需求较多,房地产市场基本稳定,风险相对较小;银行积极执行国家宏观调控政策,对房地产行业潜在的风险意识增强,多家银行机构上调了房地产企业的贷款利率,追加了房地产企业的担保资金,目前房地产市场变化对我市银行业带来的风险相对较小,尚在可控范围。