How can IMF policy eliminate country moral hazard and account for externalities?

Costly crisis prevention has positive external effects, which leads to free-riding of governments on each other's efforts. “Ordinary” IMF loans aggravate existing externalities, reinforcing the under-investment problem. We consider the reform proposals of the “Meltzer commission” in both loan and insurance models and show how the IMF can eliminate country moral. The efficiency-ensuring loan policy accounts for given externalities and involves effort-contingent discounts on interests or the extension of credit volume. Similar results hold for the insurance framework. Ex ante participation requires that smaller countries be “subsidized” by large ones, or that IMF policy consider distributional aspects in addition to efficiency.     

Learning and the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank

This paper examines the welfare implications of alternative inflation targeting proposals for the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. We assume that policy makers have to “learn” the laws of motion of inflation in an economy characterized by “stickiness” in domestic price setting behavior and subjected to recurring shocks to productivity, exports and foreign price. We find that a switch from an “asymmetric” inflation targeting strategy to an “symmetric” makes little difference in welfare payoffs, but it comes at a cost of much higher interest-rate variability. We also find that there are practically no welfare gains from switching from an inflation-targeting strategy based on the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) to a strategy based on the domestic price component of the HICP.     

The behavior of money and other economic variables: Two natural experiments

The object of this paper is to test the performance of the quantity-theory model and the related proposition of monetary neutrality in a context in which, to use Bernanke's phraseology, “money move[d] for reasons that [were] plausibly unrelated to the current state of the economy.” We investigate this question using data from two recent episodes of monetary-policy regime change – the move to floating exchange rates throughout the industrialized world following the breakdown of Bretton Woods in the early 1970s and the shift toward less expansive monetary policy that to varying degrees took place in these countries a decade or so later. The results of this exercise are highly positive. The money–price relationship that we observe is fully consistent with theory – growth shifts in the nominal stock of money and in the price level are highly correlated and bear a one-to-one relation to one another. Growth shifts in exchange rates are significantly related both to growth shifts in relative price levels and to growth shifts in relative excess supplies of money. The classical neutrality proposition – in this context superneutrality – in general, receives strong, though not totally unambiguous, support.     

Towards an understanding of the phases of goodwill accounting in four Western capitalist countries: From stakeholder model to shareholder model

The objective of this paper is to illustrate that the change in shareholders’ attitude towards firms (from stakeholder model to shareholder model) influences the accounting treatments of goodwill. Our study is based on four countries (Great Britain, the United States, Germany, and France) and covers more than a century, starting in 1880. We explain that all these countries have gone through four identified phases of goodwill accounting, classified as (1) “static” (immediate or rapid expensing), (2) “weakened static” (write-off against equity), (3) “dynamic” (recognition with amortization over a long period) and (4) “actuarial” (recognition without amortization but with impairment if necessary). We contribute several new features to the existing literature on goodwill: our study (1) is international and comparative, (2) spans more than a century, (3) uses the stakeholder/shareholder models to explain the evolution in goodwill treatment in the four countries studied. More precisely, it relates a balance sheet theory, which distinguishes four phases in accounting treatment for goodwill, to the shift from a stakeholder model to a shareholder model, which leads to the preference for short-term rather than long-term profit, (4) contributes to the debate on whether accounting rules simply reflect or arguably help to produce the general trend towards the shareholder model, (5) demonstrates a “one-way” evolution of goodwill treatment in the four countries studied, towards the actuarial phase.     

Inside–outside money competition

We study how competition from privately supplied currency substitutes affects monetary equilibria. Whenever currency is inefficiently provided, inside money competition plays a disciplinary role by providing an upper bound on equilibrium inflation rates. Furthermore, if “inside monies” can be produced at a sufficiently low cost, outside money is driven out of circulation. Whenever a ‘benevolent’ government can commit to its fiscal policy, sequential monetary policy is efficient and inside money competition plays no role.     

Auditor changes following big eight mergers with non-big eight audit firms

This paper examines the reaction of clients of “non-Big Eight” audit firms to mergers of their auditors with “Big Eight” firms. We postulate that a non-Big Eight audit firm's clients will retain a Big Eight acquirer following a merger if they benefit from the Big Eight firm's specialized services and/or reputation. Clients that do not have these economic incentives to retain the Big Eight firm are more likely to change to another non-Big Eight audit firm following the merger. Empirical tests of the characteristics of clients that remain with a Big Eight acquirer or change to another smaller auditor following an audit merger generally support our hypotheses.     

Slow track, fast track, and the “Galactic Club”

Discoveries in the physical and biological sciences suggest that intelligence is widely distributed throughout the universe. Before long, either we will decide that these discoveries have pointed us towards a false conclusion, or we will obtain undeniable evidence of extraterrestrial life. After finding one extraterrestrial society, we are likely to discover others and, in this manner, become a part of the “Galactic Club”. Following the “slow track”, an initial encounter will lead to accelerated search efforts that will put us in touch, one by one, with additional societies. Following the “fast track”, our initial contact will be with an affiliate of the Galactic Club, and this society will give us instant access to other members. The physical constraints imposed by interstellar distances, coupled with our understanding of large social systems, suggest that the Galactic Club will be large, stable, slow-paced, and exert only loose control over its members. The two tracks have different implications for managing initial contact, protecting our security, knowledge transfer, handling culture change, and preserving our identity.     

Does bank capital affect lending behavior?

This paper investigates the existence of cross-sectional differences in the response of lending to monetary policy and GDP shocks owing to differences in bank capitalization. It adds to the literature by using the excess capital-to-asset ratio, which can better control the riskiness of banks' portfolios, and by disentangling the effects of the “bank lending channel” from those of the “bank capital channel.” The results, based on a sample of Italian banks, indicate that bank capital matters in the propagation of different types of shocks to lending, owing to the existence of regulatory capital constraints and imperfections in the market for bank fund-raising.     

Towards a rational strategy for the human settlement of space

This paper revisits the core issues of space policy from the viewpoint of optimal decision theory. First it argues for a metric: maximizing the probability that humans and their technology in space someday reach what Rostow called the “economic takeoff” point where autonomous growth becomes possible, not bound by the rate of growth on earth. Next it discusses three concrete requirements to reach that point: benefits to earth which exceed costs to earth, large and diverse enough “exports” from space to earth, and advancements in technology and infrastructure. Energy from space (ES) is now one of the most promising export possibilities, based on what was learned in the last open US government effort on that topic, “JIETSSP,” led jointly by NSF and NASA. I review several options for ES, and propose a new one which, while slightly riskier, offers real hope of electricity at a price that could compete with coal and fission-plus-enrichment.     

Men, children and the future of the family in the third millennium

This paper examines the effects of demographic change on the foundations of the family. The “first” demographic transition — the massive declines in fertility and mortality — is shown to have undermined the traditional male–female relationship based on parenthood. This has led to the gender revolution in the public sphere. The “second” demographic transition — the increases in divorce and cohabitation — is shown to have undermined the father–child relationship, reflecting women's control over children, a control that increased continually during the first demographic transition. This paper argues that the gender revolution needs to be brought into the family, increasing women's ability to compete in employment and men's ability both to choose whether to assume parental responsibility and to maintain active parental roles with their children.     

Putting Humpty Dumpty back together again? The structures of knowledge and the future of the social sciences

Fifty years ago it was clear what the social sciences were, what they did and where they were going. This consensus was the product of the long-term construction of the structures of knowledge that resulted in the institutionalization of a set of disciplines that would function to guarantee ordered change in the social sphere in the name of “progress” through scientific control, exercised by “experts” and based on “hard facts”. After 1945, the scholarly legitimacy of the premises underlying the partitions separating the disciplines and the practical usefulness of the distinctions declined and from 1968 were overtly contested. It is contended that the structures of knowledge, including the social sciences, have entered into secular crisis and thus a period characterized by the heightened transformative capacity of agency typical of transitions. Since no outcome may be predetermined for the organization of future knowledge forms, this paper ends by considering modes of scholarly participation in the transformation of the social sciences.

“Don’t you think you’d be safer down on the ground?” Alice went on, not with any idea of making another riddle, but simply in her good-natured anxiety for the queer creature. “That wall is so very narrow!” Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking-Glass and What Alice Found There

Fifty years ago a serious discussion focused on the future of the “social sciences” collectively might have sounded at best like self-reflexive narcissism or simply a waste of time. At worst it might have seemed merely absurd. That is not to say that there were not significant disagreements within and across the social science disciplines. There was, however, a widely held consensus on the intellectual and institutional organization of knowledge that recognized boundaries among the humanities, the social sciences and the sciences, and the singular disciplines of which they were composed.The exposition that follows will begin with a sketch of the historical construction of this relational structure, both constitutive of and constituted by material reality, which left open the possibility for theoretical and methodological innovation and substantive development but at the same time disciplined the trajectory of such developments.This sketch will be followed by an overview of how the upheavals of the 1960’s dramatically foregrounded the premises of disciplinary autonomy (indeed, that had never been totally devoid of controversy). As the foundational principles of theoretical approaches, methodological practices, and proprietary subject-matters underwent radical change and race, gender, and class constraints on the make-up of faculties and student-bodies were opened up through a combination of critical reflection and direct action, questions concerning the future intellectual and institutional centers for the production of legitimate and authoritative knowledge of human reality emerged dramatically.Finally, the crisis in the long-term evolution of the internal contradictions of the “two cultures” structure of knowledge and thus also of the social sciences suggests imminent structural transformation. No outcome is predetermined for the organization of future knowledge forms and their institutional organization, but elective agency will be a vital ingredient in their construction and in imagining the possible alternative social structures of which they will be an inseparable part. The last question to be addressed, then, concerns the modes of scholarly participation in this transition.     

Information Uncertainty and Expected Returns

This study examines the role of information uncertainty (IU) in predicting cross-sectional stock returns. We define IU in terms of “value ambiguity,” or the precision with which firm value can be estimated by knowledgeable investors at reasonable cost. Using several different proxies for IU, we show that (1) on average, high-IU firms earn lower future returns (the “mean” effect), and (2) price and earnings momentum effects are much stronger among high-IU firms (the “interaction” effect). These findings are consistent with analytical models in which high IU exacerbates investor overconfidence and limits rational arbitrage.This revised version was published online in August 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

The history of the gender division of labour in Britain: Reflections on “‘herstory’ in accounting: The first eighty years”

This article surveys the empirical research on the gender division of labour in Britain since pre-industrial times, seeking in particular to relate it to the history of the professions, which have been relatively little studied in this regard. It argues that industrialization brought about a less dramatic change in gender roles than is often believed. Neither simple economic nor simple biological explanations, or the influence of “domestic ideology”, can adequately explain continuing gender divisions.It relates the empirical data to the current state of feminist theory arguing that the “reserve army of labour” theory is not supported by the evidence, nor indeed is any existing body of theory. Rather a combination of theoretical perspectives, including those which incorporate male prejudice, must be used if we are to understand the long persistence of gender inequality in the workplace.     

The spirit of capitalism, asset pricing and growth in a small open economy

Conventional models of economic behavior have failed to account for a number of observed empirical regularities in macroeconomics and international economics. This may be due to preference specifications in conventional models. In this paper, we consider preferences with the “spirit of capitalism” (the desire to accumulate wealth as a way of acquiring status). We analyze a number of potential effects of international catching-up and the spirit of capitalism on savings, growth, portfolio allocation and asset pricing. Moreover, we obtain a multi-factor Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Our results show that status concerns have non-trivial effects on savings, growth, portfolio allocation, asset prices and the foreign exchange risk premium.     

An optimum-currency-area odyssey

The theory of optimum-currency-areas was conceived and developed in three highly influential papers, written by (Mundell, 1961) and (McKinnon, 1963) and Kenen (1969). Those authors identified characteristics that potential members of a monetary union should ideally possess in order to make it feasible to surrender a nationally-tailored monetary policy and the adjustment of an exchange rate of a national currency. We trace the development of optimum-currency-area theory, which, after a flurry of research into the subject in the 1960s, was relegated to intellectual purgatory for about 20 years. We then discuss factors that led to a renewed interest into the subject, beginning in the early 1990s. Milton Friedman plays a pivotal role in our narrative; Friedman's work on monetary integration in the early 1950s presaged subsequent optimum-currency-area contributions; Mundell's classic formulation of an optimal currency area was aimed, in part, at refuting Friedman's “strong” case for floating exchange rates; and Friedman's work on the role of monetary policy had the effect of helping to revive interest in optimum-currency-area analysis. The paper concludes with a discussion of recent analytical work, using New Keynesian models, which has the promise of fulfilling the unfinished agenda set-out by the original contributors to the optimum-currency-area literature, that is, providing a consistent framework in which a country's characteristics can be used to determine its optimal exchange-rate regime.     

The meaning of a defined accounting concept: regulatory changes and the effect on auditor decision making

Accounting standards exist in an attempt to “standardize” accounting practice. These standards contain definitions of accounting concepts whose function is to guide judgments made in practice. However, such judgments can have a major impact on a firm's externally reported accounting numbers, as their inherent subjectivity and discretion may be lent to the manipulation of earnings. This study provides empirical evidence of the effect of measured meaning on an accounting judgment, in the context of regulated changes to the definition of one key accounting concept used in measuring operating income. The extraordinary items classification decisions made by auditors were found to be systematically associated with differences in measured meaning of the extraordinary items definition. The study has important policy implications for accounting standard-setting.     

The four spikes

The unintended impacts of human appropriation of the planet's resources have become so numerous, voluminous, and entangled in feedback loops that they often overwhelm the capacities of decisionmakers to cope with current crises, much less prepare for a sustainable future. The difficulty may be alleviated by viewing global change from a broader perspective than is normally offered either by specialists (whose views are necessarily narrow) or by mainstream media (whose interests are usually fragmentary and parochial). From this broader perspective, it can be seen that four “megaphenomena” began sweeping the planet in the past century. Graphed on a time-line of millennia rather than years or days, they appear as four enormous “spikes” — of human population, materials/energy consumption, carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, and extinctions of species. These megaphenomena account for the proliferation of afflictions swamping humanity at the outset of the 21st century. Understanding the nature of the spikes may offer the most viable means of managing — by attacking the roots — of what could otherwise escalate into an increasingly disastrous cascade of impacts.     

Professional accounting development in Nigeria: threats from the inside and outside

Over the years several, sometimes conflicting, theories attempting to explain the development of professions have emerged. The “functionalist” and “interactionist” theories have since lost the spotlight to a more critical approach based on the Weberian concept of closure. Limitations in the concept and practice of this neo-Weberain concept have led to suggestions that research into the sociology of professions, should also include historical analyses of professionalism that capture historical specificities with the aim of generating theory that sees beyond “just massive historical variation” [Collins, R. (1990). Changing conceptions in the sociology of the profession. In R. Torstendahl, & M. Burrage, The formation of professions: Knowledge, state and strategy. London: Sage Publications]. Such research should also investigate the structural conditions under which the professionalisation process takes place [Johnson, T. (1977). The profession in the class structure. In R. Scase, Industrial society: Class, cleavage and control. London: George Allen and Unwin.]. In order to achieve this, there is the need to critically study the relationship of the State and the profession [Klegon, D. (1978). The sociology of professions: an emerging perspective. Sociology of Work and Occupations, 5, 3, 259–283.] and to document more extensively, the process, rather than the product, of closure [Chua, W. F., & Paullaos, C. (1993). Rethinking the profession-state dynamic: the case of the Victorian Charter Attempt, 1885–1906, Accounting, Organizations and Society, pp. 128–691; Chua, W. F., & Paullaos, C. (1998). The dynamics of “closure” amidst the construction of market, profession, empire and nationhood: an historical analysis of an Australian Accounting Association. Accounting, Organizations and Society, 23 (2), 155–187; Ramirez, C. (2001). Understanding social closure in its cultural context: accounting practitioners in France (1920–1939), Accounting, Organizations and Society.]. Such is the approach of this article, which focuses on the development of the accounting professions in Nigeria. It critically examines the profession/ State dynamics that have helped shape the outcome of the various episodes in the history of the accounting profession in Nigeria. An important influence in this dynamics is the nature of government in place (i.e. military or civilian).     

World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race

This paper examines the foundation for two scenarios of the future depicting how human civilization might destroy itself and possibly bring about the extinction of the human race in the process. The scenarios are based upon the two human-generated “fires” deeply ingrained within industrial civilization: (1) the nuclear “fire” of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and their automated “launch on warning” alert systems and (2) the slow burning “fire” of global warming and runaway climate change. This paper also examines obstacles that are currently preventing the necessary first steps towards solving these problems.