中小企业信贷配给中博弈双方的自利行为

中小企业的良性发展一直受到信贷配给的制约,而信息不对称是导致此现象发生的最主要原因之一,文章通过"囚徒困境"模型和博弈树分析了不完全信息下银行和银行间以及银行和企业间博弈双方的自利行为,阐述了信贷配给是如何形成的。并从中小企业、金融组织、社会和政府三个方面提出了相关的政策建议,以化解银行对中小企业信贷配给的问题,从一定程度上解决中小企业融资难的问题。     

中小银行对于信贷配给的缓解作用分析

由于信息不完全造成的信贷市场和信贷合约的不完全是信贷配给产生的原因。在我国,由于体制上的金融抑制加剧了信贷配给,而中小银行的特殊性,如区域性、资本资产额小、组织层级少等使得它们在获取和处理信息方面具有大银行所没有的优势,能够减少违约风险,从而改变了解释信贷配给的贷款者的预期收益与承诺的贷款利率的函数,进而缓解了信贷配给。     

中小企业信贷配给的综合模型

本文将银行利润、银行利率、企业风险、企业规模作为内生系统变量纳入一个分析框架，建立一个竞争性市场下综合的信贷配给模型，重点研究不同风险类型的中小企业的信贷配给。模型揭示，多样性的信贷合同组合可以通过贷款利率、抵押品作为甄别机制而达到斯宾塞一莫里斯分离均衡，并分析了其存在的条件与范围，阐述了模型对中国金融系统改革悖论与中小企业信贷配给的现实启示。     

风险防控视角下的银行信贷审批分析

信贷市场变化速度极快,银行必须及时调整自己的信贷审批权限,有效降低信贷审批成本,从而提升经营效率。文中以风险防控视角下的银行信贷审批展开分析,从简述银行信贷审批的风险入手,分析了银行信贷审批中存在的问题,提出强化银行信贷审批风险的策略。     

关于地方政府融资平台管理与信贷风险防范的思考

地方政府融资平台管理是当前投资管理的一个突出问题,是政府负债管理的重要内容之一,与银行信贷有密切的关系。从宏观经济和银行的角度,分析地方政府融资平台业务的内在缺陷和系统性风险,提出加强地方政府融资平台管理、以有效与银行信贷对接的建议,使银行在控制风险总量的前提下,积极调整信贷策略,合理把握信贷投放节奏,最大限度地支持地方经济发展,也使银行自身业务得以稳健发展。     

房价波动、风险约束与银行信贷——来自中国银行业的经验证据

本文以中国30家商业银行2005—2015年非平衡面板数据为研究样本,通过系统广义矩估计（SYS GMM）考察了房价波动和风险约束以及银行信贷的关系,立足于宏观审慎思想,研判系统重要性银行与非系统重要性银行对信贷行为的异质作用。并基于货币政策的银行信贷渠道,检验在房价波动和风险约束的冲击下,货币政策工具对银行信贷的调控效果。实证结果显示：房地产价格的上涨和信用风险的降低都会增加商业银行的信贷规模;相反,会造成银行信贷规模的收缩。系统重要性银行和非系统重要性银行的信贷行为存在异质性。目前中国房价上涨并不会扩大货币政策工具的信贷扩张效果,但信用风险的降低会强化货币政策银行信贷渠道的传导机制。同时在信用风险约束逐渐减小的背景下,房地产价格对银行信贷将会产生“加速器效应”,进一步加重了中国银行的信贷“高烧”。     

应该努力发挥银行信贷住房价格的调控作用

一、银行信贷活动与住房价格关系的一般分析(一)从供给方面分析信贷活动与住房价格的关系虽然我国房地产市场的发展历史较短,但我国现实经济条件和居民收入状况决定了该市场应具有较明显的买方市场特征。然而,银行信贷活动的过度介入,使这一市场特征没有真正体现出来。强大的信贷支持引发的过量需求使广大消费者在很大程度上成为价格接受者,从而引发了目前住房市场上供给引领需求的格局。在这种格局下,只要开发商能够有足够的资金垫支开发成本,最终都能以合意的价格销售住房,收回资金,而银行对开发商的直接信贷支持和对消费者购买期房的信贷…     

信贷配给视角下中小企业信用担保理论基础研究

本文在信贷配给视角下来研究中小企业信用担保的理论基础,首先引入信贷配给理论,然后分析信贷配给与中小企业融资困境的关系,最后建立信贷配给下中小企业信用担保理论基础的考察维度。     

中小企业融资中的信贷配给分析

中国中小企业在国民经济中占据了半壁江山,对中国的国民经济和社会发展起到了举足轻重的作用,然而目前中小企业中的融资问题已成为阻碍中小企业发展的主要因素。银行是中小企业间接融资最愿意采取的融资渠道,但是大量中小企业的信贷需求却只有少数部分可以得到满足,即中小企业成为银行“信贷配给”的主要牺牲品。本文试图通过信息不对称理论,利用Stiglitz和Weiss的“信贷配给模型”框架来分析银行对中小企业惜贷的内在原因,并提出了相关的政策建议。     

信贷配给产生的原因探析

由于信息不对称的存在,商业信贷活动中的道德风险广泛存在于银行与企业之间,成为产生信贷配给最重要的原因.本文将运用信息经济学的原理,从企业的项目选择及贷款偿还选择两个角度出发,对商业信贷中的道德风险进行探析,以解释信贷配给产生的原因,并在此基础上谈一点粗浅的防范建议.     

Institutional perspectives on cost allocations: integration and extension

The debate on cost allocations in the management accounting literature has been dominated by a largely rationalistic perspective primarily informed by economic theories. However, there is growing evidence of institutional factors influencing cost allocation practices in organizations. This paper draws on neo-institutional sociology (NIS) and attempts to integrate prior research evidence of the institutional influence on cost allocation practices into an analytical framework. The core of our argument hinges on the observation that most cost allocations generate some degree of ambiguity. We argue that the implementation of various cost allocation techniques (in terms of their coupling to operating control) reflects differences in management of such ambiguity, but that this is conditioned by the patterns in which cost allocation techniques diffuse across organizations. We also address some pertinent criticisms of the NIS literature by discussing how certain intra-organizational factors and aspects of the organization's technical environment might interact with external institutional pressures in the implementation of cost allocation techniques. We advance six research propositions reflecting how such external institutional pressures and interaction effects influence the coupling of cost allocation practices to operating control.     

基于排队论的航空保障资源配置研究

航空母舰航空保障战位的优化配置在某种程度上影响着舰载机的最大出动强度。通过明确航空站位数量的设置与舰载机及母舰的运行成本之间的关系,可以确定航空保障站位的优化配置数量。本文以俄罗斯航母为模型,运用排队论思想对舰载机等待保障的M/M/1模型进行算例计算及仿真研究,分析出满足舰载机航空勤务保障的合理优化配置数量,研究发现,航空保障站位的配置数量以7组为最佳,此方法可为航空保障资源配置方案的设计提供一定的理论支撑。     

Communication complexity and stability of equilibria in economies and games

The theory of decentralized allocation mechanisms introduced by Leonid Hurwicz enabled economists to analyze the implications of requiring an allocation mechanism to perform well over a range of possible economic environments. One of the earliest major results in this theory was the formalization and proof of Hayek’s famous assertion that the competitive market mechanism minimizes the communication needed to achieve Pareto efficient allocations. The informational efficiency theorem spawned a large literature on communication complexity in allocation mechanisms. This paper provides an exposition of some results on the communication required to make equilibria locally stable, and the possibility of eliciting the required communication in allocation mechanisms and games.     

我国工业行业信贷资金配置效率研究——基于EVA的面板数据分析

效率是资源配置的核心问题,评价资源配置效率高低的重要标准,是分析资源是否流向有价值创造能力的行业。本文借鉴Jeffrey Wurgler(2000)及经济增加值(EVA)方法,对2002～2005年我国金融机构信贷资金在36个工业行业的配置效率进行了实证分析。研究发现,信贷资金配置效率与我国工业行业价值创造能力总体上呈现出较低相关性,配置效率较差,并就此问题提出了相关政策建议。     

A Bayesian adaptive design in clinical trials for continuous responses

Adaptive design is a popular concept in several clinical trials, especially in phase III trials. The idea is to allocate treatments to the entering patients according to the state of art of the present data, i.e., to allocate a larger number of patients to the better treatment. The present paper provides a Bayesian formulation of an adaptive allocation design for clinical trials that considers all the continuous responses along with the associated covariates for future allocation. Some Bayesian inferences followed by the allocation are discussed along with a Bayesian prediction for future allocation. The convergence of the allocation probabilities is also discussed along with some related logistics of the design.     

Drop-the-loser design in the presence of covariates

In the present work we develop a randomized two-treatment adaptive allocation design with covariates ensuring smaller variability of treatment allocations. We study, both numerically and theoretically, several exact and limiting properties of the design and consider an inferential problem following the allocation design. We compare the design with some of the existing allocation designs by computing its various performance measures.     

人力资本与基础设施投资的动力学分析

本文将公共支出引入一个两部门城市化和内生增长模型,由模型导出的人力资本跨时转移条件方便我们分析经济的过渡动力学行为。数值解结果表明,在物质资本报酬递减的情形下,公共支出的部门间配置由经济过渡动力内在地确定和稳定;如果物质资本表现出某种程度的报酬递增,公共支出的部门间配置将表现出内在不稳定。动力学分析表明,公共支出与经济增长之间存在非线性关系,换言之,存在促进经济增长的最优税率或最优公共支出比例。     

Sample Design and Allocation for Random Digit Dialling

Sample design and sample allocation methods are developed for random digit dialling in household telephone surveys. The proposed method is based on a two-way stratification of telephone numbers. A weighted probability proportional to size sample allocation technique is used, with auxiliary variables about the telephone coverage rates, within local telephone exchanges of each substrata. This makes the sampling design nearly “self-weighting” in residential numbers when the prior information is well assigned. A computer program generates random numbers for the local areas within the existing phone capacities. A simulation study has shown greater sample allocation gain by the weighted probabilities proportional to size measures over other sample allocation methods. The amount of dialling required to obtain the sample is less than for proportional allocation. A decrease is also observed on the gain in sample allocation for some methods through the increasing sample sizes.     

REVISITING THE ORIGINAL GHOSH MODEL: CAN IT BE MADE MORE PLAUSIBLE?

We reconsider in this paper the alleged implausibility of Ghosh's model and we do so reformulating the model to incorporate an alternative closure rule. Our proposed closure rule is in line with the original allocation rules defined by A. Ghosh. The closure solves, to some extent, the implausibility problem that was pointed out by Oosterhaven, for then value-added is correctly computed and responsive to allocation changes resulting from supply shocks. Some numerical examples illustrate the sectoral and aggregate consistency of the allocation equilibrium.     

On the asymptotic behavior of stochastic economic processes : Two examples from intertemporal allocation under uncertainty

Some of the recently developed models to deal with economic problems involving uncertainty are based on simplifying assumptions on the nature of the stochastic law of the environment influencing economic decisions. Relying on the theory of martingales, we derive some general results on the asymptotic behavior of two dynamic processes that are of interest in the theory of intertemporal resource allocation. The first example is related to the ‘turnpike’ theory of optimal allocation. The second is addressed to the question of allocation of a scarce resource by using prices when the supply of the resource is random.