Capital income taxation under majority voting with aging population

An old person typically has a mixed attitude toward the welfare-state benefits, when they are financed by capital taxes, because her income derives mostly from capital. We develop a majority-voting model which focuses on the effect of aging on this dilemma. Surprisingly, the theory predicts that tax rates on capital income could actually rise as the population ages, even though older individuals would be expected to own more capital than the young and thus vote against higher taxes. We then confront the key prediction of the model with panel data for ten European Union countries, over the period 1970–1996. We investigate the asymmetric effect of aging on the taxation of capital and labor. The implications of the model are shown to be consistent with panel data. JEL no. H0, H5, P1     

The Later You Pay,the Higher the k

This paper shows the importance of the age path (life-cycle timing) of any tax for the accumulation of capital in the economy. Income, consumption, and wage taxes differ in their age paths as well as their incentive effects. This paper studies how the differing age path of each tax affects the capital accumulation of the economy in an empirically calibrated life-cycle model. We investigate lump-sum “age” taxes and find in every case that the later the person pays tax, the higher the k of the economy. To analyze the life-cycle timing effect of conventional transactions-based taxes (income, consumption, and wage), we replace each tax with a lump-sum age tax that has the identical age path of tax payments over the life cycle. We find that the timing effect is quantitatively important and often causes the impact of a tax on capital accumulation to be very different from what would be predicted from the incentive effect.     

人口老龄化对城乡收入不平等的影响效应研究——基于中国二元经济结构演变的视角

理论分析表明,二元经济结构下人口老龄化能够通过要素禀赋结构调整和社会福利改善对城乡居民收入产生不同的收入效应和替代效应,进而影响城乡收入不平等。利用中国2000-2014年省际面板数据进行实证检验发现：中国人口老龄化显著的扩大了城乡收入不平等,但要素禀赋结构和社会福利水平对老龄化条件下的城乡收入不平等影响效应不同;随着对老年人口供养负担的加重,社会福利支出对老龄化条件下的城乡收入不平等主要表现为替代效应,城市偏向的社会福利支出使得农村因照料老人引起的劳动力供给减少扩大了城乡收入不平等;而要素禀赋结构的转变则使得老龄化主要表现为收入效应,劳动力相对资本的稀缺性导致转移劳动力工资上涨,从而缩小了城乡收入不平等;随着老龄化深化,通过社会福利改善和要素禀赋结构调整能够有效抵消老龄化对城乡收入不平等的负面影响;研究也证实了二元经济结构的优化和农业规模化经营对城乡收入不平等的缩小作用,而失业率上升和城乡投资差距却会加剧城乡收入不平等。     

税收政策的变化影响公司资本结构吗？--基于两税合并的经验数据

本文基于我国两税合并的背景,运用区间分析、配对样本T检验、回归分析和倍数差分法等方法,实证检验所得税政策的变化是否对资本结构产生影响,进而验证修正的MM理论是否适应中国资本市场。研究结果表明：所得税税负水平与公司资本结构显著正相关;由于新税法的实行,所得税税率下降的内资公司相应的降低了公司财务杠杆;两税合并前后税率下降的样本公司比税率不变的样本公司的资本结构变动显著要大。综合而言,税收政策能够显著影响公司资本结构决策。     

教育公共投入与收入差距的波及效应

在对城乡教育公共投入差异的分析基础上,运用卢卡斯的新经济增长理论框架,采用面板数据常用的固定效应模型估计人力资本及其外溢效应对城乡收入差异的影响。实证研究发现,人力资本对城乡收入增长均有较强的促进作用,且农村人力资本的产出弹性明显高于城市。但与城市相比,农村人力资本的外溢效应偏低,这在一定程度上拉大了业已存在的城乡差距。     

广东省税收问题探析

广东省税收地位十分重要,连续14年税收总量全国第一,但是广东省税收存在的问题也是不容忽视的。本文充分利用广东省的税收数据,分析了广东省的税负水平与发达国家相比,远远偏低的;广东省的主体税种“生产型增值税”已经不能适应广东省经济发展的需要;广东省内外资企业所得税标准不统一影响了广东省公平竞争的经济环境。     

Measures of human capital and the mechanics of economic growth

We examine the mechanism by which human capital affects economic growth and convergence, using provincial level panel data from China. We specify alternative measures of human capital and apply them to an enhanced growth model, which we estimate parametrically, nonparametrically, and with a threshold model. Our results show that economic convergence is pronouncedly conditional on human capital across all measures. The positive “benefit of being backward” due to lower initial income is almost trumped by the negative impact of low levels of human capital in the poorest areas.     

Preferential corporate income tax treatment: Valuation in the market portfolio

In the setting of the market portfolio, the impacts of preferential corporate income tax treatments through the valuational reduction for risk are opposite to and offset the impacts through the expected proceeds. This suggests that focusing on the absolute valuation of tax-favored firms results in the undermeasurement of implicit taxes on returns on investments in tax-favored firms and the relative valuation with reference to fully taxed (i.e., tax-disfavored) benchmark firms be used. In addition, corporate income taxes imposed on entities and capital income taxes imposed on investors have opposite valuational effects through the endogenously derived market-aggregate aversion to risk.     

The Timing of Redistribution

We investigate whether late redistribution programs that can be targeted toward low income families, but that may distort savings decisions, can “dominate” early redistribution programs that cannot be targeted as a result of information constraints. We use simple two‐period overlapping generations models with heterogeneous agents under six policy regimes: a model calibrated to the U.S. economy (benchmark), two early redistribution (lump sum) regimes, two (targeted) late redistribution regimes, and finally a model without taxes and redistribution. Redistribution programs are financed by a labor tax on the young generation and a capital tax on the old generation. We argue that if the programs are small in size, late redistribution can dominate early redistribution in terms of welfare but not in terms of real output. Better targeting of low income households cannot completely offset savings distortions. In addition, we find that the optimal transfer and tax policy implies a capital tax of 100% and transfers exclusively to the young generation.     

The Role of Property Rights in the Relationship between Capital Flows and Economic Growth in SSA: Do Natural Resources Endowment and Country Income Level Matter?

This paper studies the role played by the quality of property rights in the linkages of international capital flows into sub‐Saharan African (SSA) economies. Using panel data of 36 SSA countries over the period 1996–2015 and the ARDL procedure with the Pooled Mean Group regression method appropriate for non‐stationary panel data estimation, we account for the joint effects of property rights quality and openness to foreign capital flows on economic growth. We uncover the existence of a property rights quality threshold beyond which property rights either amplifies the spillovers effects or attenuates the negative effect of capital flows on economic growth. For instance, it takes a level of property rights of at least 60 to have a positive long‐term impact of capital flows on economic growth in natural resource‐poor African countries. The quality of property rights matters more to obtain spillover effects of capital flows on growth in natural resource‐poor countries than in their peer natural resource‐rich countries. Finally, with regard to the countries' income levels, capital flows have significant long‐term spillovers effects on economic growth in advanced African economies than in their low‐income peers.     

The dynamic macroeconomic effects of tax policy in an overlapping generations model

The paper studies the dynamic allocation effects of tax policywithin the context of an overlapping-generations model of theBlanchard-Yaari type. The model is extended to allow for endogenouslabour supply and three tax instruments, viz. a capital tax,labour income tax, and consumption tax. Both analytical expressionsand simple diagrams are used to analyze the impact, transition,and long-run effects of tax policy changes. It is shown thata part of the long-run incidence of capital and consumptiontaxes falls on capital when households' horizons are finitewhereas labour would fully bear the burden of these taxes inan infinite-horizon model.     

The impact of foreign direct investment and human capital on economic growth: Evidence from Chinese cities

Using a panel of Chinese cities over the period 1991–2010, we examine the determinants of economic growth, focusing on the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) and human capital. Consistent with the predictions of a human capital-augmented Solow model, we find that the growth rate (along the path to the steady-state income level) of per capita GDP is negatively correlated with population growth rate and positively correlated with investment rate in physical capital and human capital. We find that FDI has a positive effect on the per capita GDP growth rate and this effect is intensified by the human capital endowment of the city. The latter suggests that one way that human capital contributes to growth is to serve as a facilitator for technology transfers stemming from FDI. Furthermore, we find some suggestive evidence that the FDI-human capital complementary effect is stronger for technology-intensive FDI than for labor-intensive FDI. Our results are robust to alternative measures of human capital, model specifications, and estimation methods.     

Human capital,innovation, and growth

This paper explores the interaction between human capital and innovation in the process of economic growth. Using a model of endogenous growth, we focus on how taxes and other policy instruments affect the incentives to invest in human capital. In contrast to many other growth models we find that the taxation of human capital has a substantial negative effect on its accumulation. This in turn reduces innovation and, consequently, the income growth rate. More surprisingly, other policies that are intended to stimulate growth may have opposing effects on innovation and the accumulation of human capital. For example, while subsidies to research and to intermediate inputs do have positive effects on innovation and growth, they lead to a lower stock of human capital, in the empirically relevant case when the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is low.     

Human capital estimates in China: New panel data 1985–2010

We introduce new provincial level panel data on human capital in China from 1985 to 2010. Our estimation of human capital is based on the Jorgenson–Fraumeni lifetime income approach modified to fit the Chinese data, thereby allowing a more comprehensive measurement of human capital than traditional partial measurements, such as education. Our provincial data are adjusted for purchasing power parity via a living-cost index as well as for real values so that all values are comparable across the provinces and time. We discuss various characteristics of the data, including total human capital, per capita human capital, and labor force human capital, which in turn are disaggregated based on gender and urban or rural location. Our human capital estimates are compared with the provincial physical capital estimates and provincial GDP. As an illustration, we also use the data to estimate a production function and to decompose China's economic growth from physical capital, human capital, and TFP. Our results, compared with those that use traditional specifications, reassure us as to the reliability of our new China human capital data.     

Dynamic Scoring in a Romer‐Style Economy

This article analyzes how changes in tax rates affect government revenue in a Romer‐style endogenous growth model. Lower tax rates on financial income (returns to physical capital and intellectual property) are partially self‐financing primarily because lower financial income taxes stimulate innovation and enhance labor productivity in the long run. In the baseline calibration, about half of a tax cut is self‐financing in the long run, substantially more than in the Ramsey model. The dynamics of the economy's response to a tax cut are very sluggish and, for some variables, nonmonotonic.     

金融发展对城乡收入差距的影响——基于中部六省2000-2011年面板数据的实证分析

为了研究金融发展对城乡收入差距的影响,论文采用了以城乡居民人口比重加权的基尼系数,以金融发展规模、金融发展效率作为衡量金融发展的指标,选取了合理的控制变量,基于中部六省2000-2011年的面板数据,借鉴并扩展了Clark,Xu和Zou的模型进行回归分析。实证结果表明,城乡收入差距与金融发展规模、金融发展效率存在协整关系;金融发展规模显著缩小了城乡收入差距,金融发展效率显著扩大了城乡收入差距,且前者的影响弱于后者,金融发展总体上对城乡收入差距的扩大具有显著的正向影响。第一、第二产业、城镇化都显著缩小了城乡收入差距,人力资本和农林水事务支出的影响不显著。城乡收入差距自身具有较强的、显著的、滞后效应。最后本文给出了相应的政策建议。     

The relative variability of state income and sales taxes over the revenue cycle

The cyclical variability of state income and sales taxes is examined for each state by estimating the degree to which each tax follows the state's overall revenue cycle. Income taxes are found to be consistently more cyclically variable, and less predictable, than sales taxes. Factors explaining differences in cyclical variability across states are then identified in a regression model. States without income taxes have less cyclically variable revenues than states with both income and sales taxes, suggesting that cyclical variability in states without income taxes could not be reduced by broadening the tax base to include an income tax.     

Income tax reform for a globalized world: The case for a dual income tax

Countries that are industrialized, or becoming so, must adopt tax systems that are capable of raising considerable amounts of revenue efficiently, equitably and with administrative simplicity, while at the same time coping with the competitive features of a globalized world economy. A component of that tax system will be direct taxation of households alongside general sales and payroll taxation. This paper addresses the role that capital income taxes should play in the income tax system. Arguments for the preferential treatment of capital income are summarized, and a case is made for adopting a schedular approach in which capital and labor income are taxed according to separate rate structures. The particular case of the dual income tax system used in the Nordic countries is advocated whereby capital income is taxed at a low, flat rate and non-capital income is taxed progressively. It is argued that this system best combines the objectives of a good tax system in an internationally competitive environment.     

International spillover effects of consumption taxation

This paper investigates the international spillover effects of a revenue-neutral increase in consumption taxes coupled with a reduction in wage taxes in a two-country open economy. Many economists feel that the consumption tax would be an improvement over the income tax. This paper provides counterexamples to the conventional wisdom. We show that conversion to a consumption tax may reduce capital accumulation and may transmit a negative externality to the rest of the countries in the world economy under certain conditions: endogenous labor supply and bequests.