Predicaments in the futures of ageing democracies

Ageing societies need to supply support to an ever growing segment of elderly dependent population without compromising the future sustainability for the currently young or unborn population. Current tendencies to focus on policy solutions like automatic stabilisers and norm-based pre-commitment strategies with decisions delegated to experts carry a high risk of political breakdown when the future population re-evaluates this with new information. Using the Swedish pension reform as a concrete example we show how the futurity problem associated with the current non-existence of the future population makes the political process prone to avoid bringing issues with very long horizons into the public debate. Alternative demographic scenarios for Sweden are used to illustrate how even very small variations in the assumptions of demographic projections lead to radically different future population structures. Hence, the majority preferences in a distant future cannot be foreseen. Adding to this, the complex interactions with a changing environment of technology and nature time-consistent decision making at the far future horizon must be virtually impossible. Thus, the sustainability of long-term social security systems requires constitutional balances that provide for orderly and continual adaptation rather than once-for-all fixes that are likely to be rejected by future electorates.     

An examination of the political salience of corporate tax avoidance: A case study of the Tax Justice Network

Corporate tax avoidance (CTA) has become a high profile issue despite being a complex area of accounting practice. One reason for this has been the civil society campaign opposing tax avoidance. The paper provides a case study of one key civil society actor: the Tax Justice Network (TJN). Existing accounting analysis offers little to explain how some accounting issues acquire political attention and media coverage. To address this, the concept of political salience is introduced into accounting analysis – understood as the creation of focal points in campaigns – to consider how the TJN contributed to the political profile of CTA.     

Hunting humans: A future for tourism in 2200

This paper offers a future scenario to expose the potential engagement of tourism in the year 2200. Taking a socio-constructionist approach to research and through the analysis of secondary data, it explores current issues and debates concerned with the environment, disasters and depletion of natural resources; social context including movies and entertainment, the media and technology, the evolution of the theme park and cultural transmission; and economical realities, covering poverty vs. world elite and global culture, all of which are seen as drivers of the potential future tourism market. In so doing, it presents a narrative (scenario), provoking the notion that in the year 2200 death and hunting humans will form part of the tourism entertainment industry and a practice carried out by the wealthy-elite, a view backed with substance. It argues, that as a result of past and current engagements with murder, death and human atrocities, and significantly our relationship with death, humans will gradually become more accustomed to death as a form of spectacle, influenced by current entertainment, movies and the media. Death as entertainment by form of detachment (emotionally and physically) will further influence the future fun aspect of hunting humans. Significantly, changes in our natural environment will lead to great challenges, lack of water, depleted food resources and greater disparity between the wealthy and impoverished; all of which will drive the change in our humanly existence. This papers aims to provide a provocative account of the ‘potential future meaning of tourism’, through the application of current knowledge, and significantly, it is our relationship with death and violence that are central, death and violence are becoming diluted and thus, will be a source of future entertainment and a tourism activity – in less humans can reach a level of transcendence that has never been present, to transcend the culture they have created, one that has always witnessed violence as a means to survival. If violence can be detached then we will be presented with a ‘wild card’, a future that is truly out of this world.     

Diversification and Its Discontents: Idiosyncratic and Entrepreneurial Risk in the Quest for Social Status

Social status concerns influence investors' decisions by driving a wedge in attitudes toward aggregate and idiosyncratic risks. I model such concerns by emphasizing the desire to “get ahead of the Joneses,” which implies that aversion to idiosyncratic risk is lower than aversion to aggregate risk. The model predicts that investors hold concentrated portfolios in equilibrium, which helps rationalize the small premium for undiversified entrepreneurial risk. In the model, status concerns are more important for wealthier households. Consequently, these households own a disproportionate share of risky assets, particularly private equity, and experience greater volatility of consumption, consistent with empirical evidence.     

Foresight for debate: Reflections on an experience in conceptual design

Among the various reasons to engage in foresight activities, one encountered often is to stimulate dialogue on imminent issues and inspire innovations aimed at the challenges they bring along. The authors' studio, Pantopicon, was asked to carry out a (near future) foresight desk study investigating the changing role between people and their home/office interiors. Furthermore they were asked to render tangible the challenges brought forward by this study and create a thought-provoking experience for an audience of professionals and general visitors within the context of a trade fair (i.e. the Biennale Interieur in Kortrijk, Belgium). The article will zoom in on the particular way in which this challenge was taken up, i.e. by creating an immersive experience embodying imminent future changes by means of five fair booths. Each represented a fictitious company with products or services aimed at new needs, opportunities and abilities emerging from changes in the relationship between people and their home interiors. This article describes the follow-up approach, the results obtained and reflects upon a series of key learnings following from the experience in particular and the role and value of conceptual design in enhancing the experience factor in foresight in general. Hence, we aim to illustrate how an immersive conceptual design approach can be used in an applied foresight context and how it raises new questions and opportunities for both research and applied contexts. Through physical evidencing¹ and open-ended storytelling, futures rendered tangible through design contribute to instilling a sense of wonder in people, in shifting their mindset to render them more susceptible to anticipating some of tomorrow’s changes.     

The role of future economic conditions in the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from the US and UK

Our study investigates the explanatory power of future economic conditions on individual stock returns in the US and UK equity markets. We analyse a new trading strategy that is based on rational forecasts of future real activity. In addition, we specifically examine the performance of this trading strategy applied to two different classifications of stocks – procyclical stocks and countercyclical stocks. Our findings indicate a strong persistence in the relationship between returns on pro-cyclical stocks and the business cycle. However, such persistence is not present when moving to counter-cyclical stocks in the US and the UK. From this we suggest that US and UK equity investors who predict future real activity accurately can improve their investment profitability by longing pro-cyclical stocks when they expect future economic conditions to be above the long-run trend and shorting those stocks when future activity is anticipated to be below the steady state.     

Democracy and risk-based decision-making: the next step in public involvement

Risk assessment has struggled to reconcile public views and opinion with the results of science-based objective assessment. In this paper, we attempt to tease apart subjective and objective considerations that risk management decisions entail. Through the use of examples from the New Zealand Environmental Risk Management Authority, we argue that risk managers need to use quantitative tools in order to develop an objective understanding of the biophysical outcomes of an activity. Decision-making should then enter a phase where democratic methods are used to allow people to weigh these physical outcomes subjectively. We believe allowing subjective democratic decisions, based on objective reality, will help enable risk management to bridge gaps between practitioners and the public.     

Resilience indicators: opportunities for including distributive justice concerns in disaster management

This paper presents a systematic review of the concept of resilience in the field of disaster management, with a focus on the use of indicators and the inclusion of social justice considerations. The literature is reviewed with reference to various definitions of resilience, the relation between concepts of resilience and vulnerability, the conceptualization of resilience and the use of indicators, and the inclusion of social justice issues. The analysis shows that different disciplines employ various definitions of resilience and conceptions of its relation to vulnerability. Although recognized as important, distributive issues are not currently addressed in the literature. As a result, we lack a clear sense of what equality or distributive justice should mean in the context of resilience and disaster management. An approach based on capabilities is proposed as a promising way forward.     

Regulation of food safety risks: the case of food irradiation in Japan

As risk analysis becomes more important in the promulgation of international and domestic standards, scientific data and the utilization of this data as a foundation for regulations is fundamental in determining these standards. Over the past 20 years, the scientific understanding of food irradiation technology has increased significantly regarding the impact of the technology on various types of food and the potential applications. As a result, the World Health Organization (WHO), Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), acting together, announced a standard on the benefits of food irradiation in early 1980s. Despite the consensus amongst international organizations regarding the benefits of food irradiation, individual countries have not been as eager to promote this technology. Japan began an initial investigation into the applications of food irradiation over 30 years ago, yet today prohibits irradiation except for the potato. This paper examines the history of research and regulation on food irradiation in Japan, and how scientific information and other factors have influenced its regulatory policy. These factors, including industry willingness, regulatory structure and perception, are not outside exerting force on the regulations of this technology, but rather are inherently a part of the regulatory process itself, and lead to a 'vicious circle' of rigidity that closes off the opportunity to incorporate new scientific and technical information as it arises.     

Junior must pay: pricing the implicit put in privatizing Social Security

Summary. Proposals that a portion of the Social Security Trust Fund assets be invested in equities entail the possibility that a severe decline in equity prices will render the Funds assets insufficient to provide the currently mandated level of benefits. In this event, existing taxpayers may be compelled to act as insurers of last resort. The cost to taxpayers of such an implicit commitment equals the value of a put option with payoff equal to the benefits shortfall. We calibrate an OLG model that generates realistic equity premia and value the put. With 20 percent of the Funds assets invested in equities, the highest level currently under serious discussion, we value a put that guarantees the currently mandated level of benefits at one percent of GDP, or a temporary increase in Social Security taxation of, at most, 20 percent. We value a put that guarantees 90 percent of benefits at .03 percent of GDP. In contrast to the earlier literature, our results account for the significant changes in the distribution of security returns resulting from Trust Fund purchases.We thank Henning Bohn for his insightful comments. We also thank Kenneth Arrow, Jean Boivin, John Campbell, Kenn Judd, Narayana Kocherlakota, Mordecai Kurz, Rick Mishkin, Nobu Kiyotaki, Ed Prescott, Steve Ross, Andrei Shleifer, Kent Smetters, Luis Viceira, David Webb, Steve Zeldes and the seminar participants at Columbia, Harvard, LSE, Minnesota, MIT, NYU, Oslo, Stanford, Stockholm School of Economics, UCLA, USC, Wharton, Wisconsin and Yale for helpful discussions.     

Designing a foresight exercise for the future of rural communities in Romania

The paper aims to offer a good guideline for anyone who intends to do a futures or a foresight exercise for rural communities. The case presented is the one of the future of rural communities in Romania. The article begins with a brief presentation of the prevailing rural situation in Romania followed by a dialogue regarding suggestions for the possible objectives of a foresight exercise and the methods used (e.g. visioning, alternative futures, scenarios).     

Maximizing the firm's value to society through ethical business decisions: Incorporating ‘moral debt’ claims

We argue that all three forms of justice (economic, legal, distributive) require to be incorporated into the firm's business decisions in order to protect stakeholders’ alienable and inalienable rights. In addition, the firm has ‘moral debt’ obligations which require to be distributed fairly amongst all stakeholders. We develop a model that demonstrates that just distribution of stakeholders’ ‘moral debt’ and residual claims leads to the maximization of the firm's value to society in the long-run.     

Transparency in the food aisle: the influence of procedural justice on views about labeling GM foods

Issues of transparency lay at the center of the debate surrounding the labeling of genetically modified (GM) food products in the USA. These issues include not only the argument that consumers should be allowed to make purchasing choices based on full disclosure of product ingredients but also that they should have access to the process that makes decisions about labeling. This study examines the influence of procedural justice on perceived decision legitimacy and decision support regarding GM food labeling decisions. Using a 2 × 2 factorial design, participants recruited from an online Qualtrics panel (N = 450) were randomly assigned to read a fictitious news article about an agricultural company’s decision about whether to label their food products as having GM ingredients. Articles varied by the company’s labeling decision (label versus no label) and whether the company listened to public input prior to making the decision (public input versus no public input). The results showed significant main effects on decision support and perceived legitimacy for articles that mentioned public input. Specifically, when participants read articles stating that the company made its decision after listening to public input, they were more supportive of the decision and perceived the decision as more legitimate. Moreover, this main effect occurred irrespective of whether or not the company’s decision was to label GM foods. Our results confirm the influence of procedural justice perceptions in fostering support and perceived legitimacy for controversial risk-related decisions.     

Strangers in a strange land: Knowing, learning and education for the global knowledge society

Profound changes to established patterns of life, root metaphors, necessary expertise and habits of mind are occurring as a consequence of globalization, information and communications technologies and the shift to a knowledge society. There is now a widening cultural mismatch between what members of the knowledge society need to succeed and what current systems of higher education are geared to offer. Increasingly, the result of this gap is that the products of today's Enlightenment-based socializing systems such as the colleges and universities are ill prepared for the actual challenges of contemporary life, often feeling bewildered and overwhelmed and like “strangers in a strange land.” A paradigmatic revolution in education is needed, but current discussion about reform is couched in the logic of market economics and draws inspiration largely from business strategies such as total quality management. It also remains firmly within the habits of mind and frames of reference of an Industrial Age. To adequately prepare people and communities to thrive in the global knowledge society, revolutionary changes are required in mission, curriculum content, pedagogy and modes of inquiry. The purpose must become explicitly aimed at producing a shift in the deep structures of consciousness and towards the development of transdisciplinary expertise—entirely new literacies and new approaches to learning that both fit the current economic realities and are more attuned to the socio-cultural, psychological and spiritual needs of an emerging global knowledge society.     

我国倒按揭业务立法问题探讨——应对老龄化的法律创新

老龄化是我国经济发展方式转变的重要因素,应对老龄社会,必须建立全方位的养老法律体系。倒按揭业务通过市场化运行的金融产品,实现住房养老。各国倒按揭业务的运作模式大致有政府主导型、保险公司主导型及商业银行主导型三种,针对我国国情,应当选择商业银行主导型。我国立法应当引入让与担保,以构建倒按揭业务的基础法律关系。倒按揭合同应当设立无追索权、增值分享及回赎权等特别条款。为推动倒按揭业务在我国的发展,还应当设计政府支持、保险公司参与及资产证券化等支撑制度。     

Reassessing the risk conditions for political instability in the light of the Arab Spring

In today’s globalized world, multinational firms contend with a diverse set of risk factors in their worldwide operations. The recent regime changes in northern African countries, also called the Arab Spring, have highlighted that political instability is one of these factors. As researchers and existing indices of political instability largely failed to predict those developments, firms had not incorporated them into their risk calculations and hence incurred losses while having to adapt their operations. This paper examines the conditions that contributed to the recent instability in North Africa using Tunisia and Egypt as case studies. It evaluates the extent to which existing measures of political instability incorporate those conditions. The analysis reveals that the main conditions contributing to the political turmoil can be seen in socio-economic factors, namely inequality, poverty, youth unemployment, a growing youth population, and especially in the case of Egypt an independent military. These findings reveal gaps in current measures of political instability, whose dominant focus is on factors describing violence and changes in the political system while neglecting the influence of a country’s socio-economic environment.     

Organisations and the sixth wave: Are ethics transforming our economies in the coming decades?

The Kondratieff wave theory describes how societies develop in socio-economic waves of 40–60 years. The theory postulates a set of technologies and practices that are unique to each wave. Although a challenge of the Kondratieff wave theory is great variance in interpretations about the timing of the waves among scholars, based on several analyses we suggest that with the financial crisis of 2008, and resulting economic instability, we are experiencing the end of the fifth wave and the emergence of the sixth.We take as our starting point the global trends, particularly those of scarcity and the rising cost of commodities such as energy and raw materials that have led to a widely shared hypothesis that resource productivity will be the key driver of technology and economic growth in the next wave. Socially, this driver will be fortified by growing environmental concerns since climate change and the destruction of natural ecosystems seem inevitably to proceed. Both these sources are boosting a generation of new companies and behaviour.In this article our focus is to evaluate weak signals that point to possible directions for the future of organisational practices in the sixth Kondratieff wave. We ask what will be the effects of the changing socio-technical landscape on the working life and organisational culture. The K-waves theory explains how certain ways of organising that have so far developed in the fringes of organisational culture may move into the mainstream, as a product of the systemic restructuring that has often accompanied the new K-wave.We present our findings from a workshop with representatives of five different resource efficiency oriented organisations in the Silicon Valley area. Based on the data we have gathered through the workshop and complementing interviews, we show how organisations base their considerations about the future to a surprisingly large extent on ethical arguments. Our material also includes a case that shows that this ethical approach is not self-evidently related to the aim for resource efficiency.We evaluate our results in the Future Sign – framework presented by Hiltunen. The signals we have gathered are combined with corporate shared value – thinking, and both are interpreted through the Kondratieff – wave theory. Based on our sample of five cases, along with a framework that supports our interpretation, we suggest the ethical motivations as backbone of organisations is a relatively strong future sign that has potential for strengthening in the sixth wave context.     

Managing toxic chemicals in Australia: a regional analysis of the risk society

The paper takes examples from two decades of toxic risk management in Australia in order to examine the challenges that the conditions of the ‘risk society’ pose for the chemicals industry in this country. These issues for corporate governance are set against a shift in political discourse in the direction of the limiting of the state, co‐governance between state and industry, and new community involvements and responsibilities. The paper describes new social movements and alliances influencing corporate structures and processes for decision making in Australia. The case examples lead to conclusions concerning the fundamental innovations in the organizational design of regulatory bodies and corporations that are required if progress is to be made towards sustainability and the re‐establishment of public trust. The findings of this paper are symptomatic of the more general challenges that the ‘risk society’ poses for the mainstream political programmes and their frameworks for regulation, for corporate architecture and for the relationships between governments, corporations and the community.