Size and Structure of Disaster Relief when State Capacity is Limited: China’s 1823 Flood

This paper presents new archival evidence about the amount and structure of central government disaster relief during China’s devastating flood of 1823. The flood affected 20 per cent of China’s counties, and spending per capita was sizable and distributed between provinces depending on the intensity of flooding. Because of its relative small size and limited state capacity, the Chinese government ultimately spent about half of its annual tax revenues on relief during 1823. Given China’s ensuing secular economic stagnation, this is consistent with models emphasising state capacity for economic growth.     

Convergence crisis: economic crisis and convergence in the European Union

The success of the integration process of the new EU Member States is reflected by the convergence performance. Sustainable convergence assumes that potential growth rates of the less developed countries continuously exceed the dynamics of the potential output of the developed countries. However, the financial and economic crisis of 2008 has resulted in a fundamentally new situation as regards these issues. This paper considers real convergence, catch-up processes and in terms of these the main economic growth trends. The study focuses mainly on the potential growth trends. The recession has, however, affected the individual countries to different degrees. The study classified the Member States into four groups based on the initial circumstances and the vulnerability originating from them; these are ‘Developed’ countries and ‘Convergence’ countries, three groups of the latter are ‘Mediterranean’ countries, ‘Catch-up’ countries and ‘Vulnerable’ countries. Potential growth and the contribution of the individual growth factors might follow significantly different paths in these country groups. The convergence countries might face especially great challenges. Potential growth rate of the ‘Convergence’ countries—according to simulations—is expected to recover less in the mid-term, than that of the ‘Developed’ countries, i.e. convergence slows down, it might come to a halt or even divergence might occur in certain countries. It might result in a ‘Convergence Crisis’ particularly in certain ‘Mediterranean’ and ‘Vulnerable’ new Member States. Also, longer term simulations indicate that the European convergence processes might slow down and stop in certain countries. These trends may have significant effects on economic policies facilitating potential growth. We apply extensive quantitative analysis, production function and growth accounting approaches in the study.     

State advances and private retreats? — Evidence of aggregate productivity decomposition in China

This paper is motivated by the recent debate on the existence and scale of China's ‘Guo Jin Min Tui’ phenomenon, which is often translated as ‘the state sector advances and the private sector retreats’. We argue that the profound implication of an advancing state sector is not the size expansion of the state ownership in the economy per se, but the likely retardation of the development of the already financially constrained private sector and the issues around the sustainability of the already weakening Chinese economy growth. Drawing on recent methodological advances, we provide a critical analysis of the contributions of the state and non-state sectors in the aggregate Total Factor Productivity and its growth over the period of 1998–2007 to verify the existence of GJMT and its possible impacts on Chinese economic growth. Overall, we find strong and consistent evidence of a systematic and worsening resource misallocation within the state sector and/or between the state sectors and private sectors over time. This suggests that non-market forces allow resources to be driven away from their competitive market allocation and towards the inefficient state sector.     

Japanese industrial development Lessons for South Africa?

This paper is critical of the scenario planning approach which attempts to offer a formula for development for South Africa in the 1990s based upon the success of Japan, amongst other economic ‘winners’. It is argued that the complexities and debates surrounding Japanese modernization make the application of ‘lessons’ extremely problematical. Points of controversy arising out of the two ‘miracle’ periods of Japanese economic growth, the Meiji era of the nineteenth century and post World War Two era, are examined in some detail. The Tokugawa legacy, Japanese ethics and in particular Confucianism, capital formation and investment spurts, the agricultural contribution, militarism and economic gains from warfare, the role of the state, the zalbatsu and business structures, dualism, labour supplies, export performance and finally education are all factors central to the debate on causes of economic growth in Japan. The paper concludes with some suggestive and very tentative ideas about ‘lessons’ for South Africa.     

The implications of the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ on globalization and inclusive growth for the Eurasian continent

The ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI) and other emergent forms of transnational institution building raise new fundamental issues for economists and social scientists. Can BRI become a template for a new phase in the globalization process – a stage in which China takes a more proactive role? Can BRI help Central Asian economies that until now had been standing on the sidelines become fully integrated into the global division of labor? This article tries to analyze China’s potential of assuming a more central role in international economic governance and globalization process, which would also be in line with the size of its population and GDP. Further, the article analyzes the potential impacts of the BRI on inclusive growth for the poorly integrated Eurasian landmass by inspecting several direct and indirect channels.     

Growth Patterns and Inequality in the Presence of Costly Technology Adoption

The stylized facts that motivate this article include the diversity in growth patterns that are observed across countries during the process of economic development and the divergence over time in income distributions both within and across countries. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model in which technology adoption is costly and agents are heterogeneous in their initial holdings of resources. We interpret the adoption cost as the resources expended in acquiring skills associated with new technologies. Endogenous growth occurs in our model largely as a result of human capital deepening. The analytical results of the model characterize three growth outcomes associated with the technology adoption process depending on productivity differences between the technologies. These outcomes are labeled ‘poverty trap,’ ‘dual economy,’ and ‘balanced growth.’ The model is then capable of explaining the observed diversity in growth patterns in addition to the divergence of incomes over time and across countries.     

The role of the Spanish imperial state in the mining‐led growth of Bourbon Mexico's economy1

Colonial Mexico's economy experienced a long phase of growth during the eighteenth century. Around 1800, silver exports and fiscal surplus remittances from the colony rose to unprecedented levels. We study the contribution of the Spanish imperial state's policy to the expansion of silver production and the leading role of mining in economic growth and its fiscal implications. We find evidence to support a more favourable view of both the mining sector and the imperial state than that commonly presented in the literature. The interruption of colonial ‘mining‐led growth’ helps to explain the ‘lost decades’ for the economic development of Mexico after independence.     

Rethinking Industrial Policy for Low Income Countries

Abstract: The governments of low income countries should be giving more attention to ‘industrial policy’ than they and the aid donors have given in the past quarter century. (‘Industrial policy’ means any sectorally or activity‐targeted interventions, including in agriculture and services.) The first step is to discard the common assumption that industrial policy is about ‘picking winners’. The second step is to realize that industrial policy can be done ‘big’ or ‘small’, and by ‘leading the market’ or by ‘following the market’. It can be tailored to the available resources and state capacity. The third step is to see that the key issues of industrial policy are less to do with ‘what activities should be encouraged?’, or ‘what sorts of policy instruments are best?’, and more to do with, ‘how do we organize a process of discovery of sensible objectives and policies?’, and ‘how do we organize a constant nudging of producers to upgrade, diversify, link up with foreign firms?’ (where the nudging effort has to be targeted at some activities and sectors more than others). The paper illustrates with East Asian examples. One of the good effects of the current global crisis is that it has shaken confidence in the virtues of lightly regulated markets and free capital movements, and opened the way to a less ideologically charged debate about the role of the state in development—in which thinking is not precluded by easy jeers like ‘governments can't pick winners’ or ‘maybe the East Asians can do it but you can’t, so you have nothing to learn about industrial policy from them’.     

Politics of the development of small and medium‐sized firms in Japan

Since the 1980s, small and medium sized firms in Japan have adjusted themselves remarkably to the market changes of the post‐Fordism industry, and have significantly contributed to the country's economy. This paper emphasizes the interaction of the state and local producers in building a social environment for nurturing the development of small and medium‐sized firms in Japan. An important role assumed by the state is the creation of local firm‐supporting institutions which have been the foundation of constructing regional industrial system. These local institutions were effectively utilized by the local producers of small and medium sized firms. In this process, central political power and local economic power fused in organizing ‘production’ in a new way of horizontal collaboration.     

The historiography of French economic growth in the nineteenth century

There has been a long-standing debate about French nineteenth-century economic growth. After 1945 the ‘retardation—stagnation’ thesis dominated. From the 1960s ‘revisionists’ painted a more optimistic view. Recently, ‘anti-revisionism’ has revived gloomy ideas. New research has been primarily responsible for changes of view. National income estimates, and later cliometric studies, bolstered the revisionist argument. Work on the ‘great depression’ stimulated anti-revisionism. Scholars have also been influenced by the economic and political state of France at the time they were writing and the debate has been somewhat politicized. The article ends by surveying the ‘moderate revisionism’ which now prevails.     

Technical change and the ‘technology’ myth

Abstract

In recent years, historians and other English-speaking commentators on technical change and technical functions have often chosen to discuss these matters under the heading ‘technology’. Thus, there have been discussions about such matters as ‘echnological innovation’, ‘technological invention’, and even ‘the imperatives of technology’, ‘the technostructure’ and ‘technological drivenness’.¹ One economist with a special interest in historical matters, Kuznets, has virtually defined a separable condition of ‘modernity’ as the era of ‘technology’ — ‘The epochal innovation that distinguishes the modern economic epoch is the extended application of science to problems of economic production’ alternatively, it is ‘the utilization of a potential provided by modern technology’. An economic historian (Musson) has it that ‘applied science is … the major force behind modern economic growth’. And a prominent historian of the so-called ‘technology’, Forbes, has argued that in ‘our modern world both technology and engineering are branches of applied science’.²     

The state in Chinese economic history

We survey the recent economics and history literature on the Chinese state to investigate its role in China's long-term socioeconomic development. We highlight three insights. First, unlike in Europe, where interstate competition helped give rise to capitalist states with high capacity, the Chinese state emerged from a different historical context. Second, the 18th- and 19th-century Chinese state does not fit into the mould of a strong and extractive Oriental despotic state as once commonly believed. By conventional measures, early modern China had a weak state. Third, state building and centre-local relations are two useful dimensions to understand development and change in China's recent history and political economy. To adapt China to a changing world, Chinese state builders embarked on a long process of state building from the late-19th century through the Republican and Communist eras. Facilitated partly by regional decentralisation, the process now sees the Chinese state playing a substantially larger role in the economy and everyday life than any previous time in history.     

Indonesia's economic performance in comparative perspective and a new policy framework for 2049

This is the first paper of a planned ‘Indonesia 2049’ project, which asks how far Indonesia's economy will have developed 100 years after actual political independence in 1949. We compare dimensions of Indonesia's economy with those of two oil exporters (Mexico and Nigeria), three large populous developing economies (China, India and Brazil) and three Southeast Asian neighbours (Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines). Under Soeharto, Indonesia's economic performance was better than it had been under Soekarno, and above the average of the eight comparator countries, but below that of the East Asian economies. Our view is that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's second administration must adopt a new economic policy framework to ensure successful transition to knowledge-based growth. This proposed new framework goes beyond the Washington Consensus of ‘getting prices right’ and ‘getting institutions right’ to include ‘getting the role of science right’ and ‘getting the conception of the reform process right’.     

Financial System Risk Tolerance Capacity and Economic Growth: Evidence from a Cross-country Analysis

This article develops a new indicator of financial system risk tolerance capacity to see how the financial risk management function mechanism reacts to economic growth by applying a system generalized method of moments estimation technique. Based on a sample of 49 countries for the period 1998–2011, we find that both bank and stock market risk tolerance capacity can significantly promote long-run economic growth through absorbing and bearing real economic risks. These findings indicate that financial system risk tolerance capacity, which provides a powerful trial and error system, has a positive effect on long-term growth. Therefore, the policy implication is that releasing controllable financial risks actively and moderately beforehand may support scientific and technological innovation, maintain financial stability and, finally, promote long-run economic growth.     

China’s macroeconomic trends in downward pressures: the ‘micro stimulus’ effects and steady growth

This study reports China’s macroeconomic trends in downward pressures and discusses the effects of the ‘micro stimulus’ on the growth performance of Chinese economy. It appears that economic growth rebounds significantly in the short term every time ‘micro stimulus’ is applied, but the economy slows down again once the stimulus dwindles. China’s economic growth thus exhibits a pattern of significant ‘stimulus-dependence’. When facing economic downturn, China has only resorted to stimulus policy to sustain growth. Not surprisingly, our findings indicate that ‘micro stimulus’ cannot realize the strategic intent of growth stabilization and structural adjustment, and may even lead to more structural chaos. One problem that can be attributed to the near-sighted strategy is the worsening productivity performance since the financial crisis of 2008. Therefore both improvement in social security systems and social programs designed for maintaining long run growth are needed in order to improve productivity performance on the one hand and to facilitate structural adjustments on the other.     

A ‘socialist’ economy in a capitalist world

Contending views about the ‘threats’ and ‘opportunities’ relating to China’s economic rise reflect the complex and, for many, confusing role of the state in China’s reform and development process. This in turn relates to a marked difference between China’s official perception of ‘Socialism with Chinese characteristics’ and alternative views regarding the nature of its emerging capitalist system. This glaring gap in perceptions is problematic in an increasingly globalised world, complicating debates about what China should and will do to rebalance its domestic economy how other nations should and will react to the recent surge in Chinese investment overseas. This paper reflects on these debates in the context of China’s multifaceted and ever-evolving economic system.     

Economic Reform,Structural Changes,and Regional Economic Growth in China: Cross-Province Regressions

Through cross-province growth regressions this paper analyses the relationship between China's regional economic growth and economic reforms and structural changes since 1978. By applying the extreme bound analysis, the paper has demonstrated the statistical significance and robustness of the estimated coefficients of the following variables of interest: share of the state sector, share of foreign capital in capital formation, extra-budgetary funds to GNP ratio, and standard deviation of inflation. With these and such ‘always-included’ variables as GNP share of investment and initial level of illiteracy, regression models explain about 60% of cross-province variations in growth. The results suggest that continuing reductions in the state sector and attraction of foreign capital are two of the most important factors for rapid per capital income growth in China.     

公路突发事件应急能力实证分析

公路突发事件应急能力评估是公路应急管理工作的基础。以公路为研究对象,采用静态与动态相结合的方法,从基础制度建设能力和应急应对能力两个维度构建公路突发事件应急能力评价指标体系。运用层次分析法和DELPHI法对系统各指标因素进行量化解析,确定各因子对公路应急系统的作用大小,并分析其灵敏度和权重因子。结果表明,应急应对能力在公路突发事件的处理中占重要地位,在基础制度建设能力中信息保障占据首要地位,其次是经费资金和应急抢通;在应急应对能力方面,事故发生前的检测预警对于事故灾害的减缓显得尤为重要,通信与信息设备状况的重要性紧随其后。     

Reform in the contract state: Embedded directions in public procurement regulation in South Africa

As South Africa contemplates another episode of public procurement legal reform, we trace the post-apartheid history of such efforts and consider critical issues moving forward. South Africa has over the last few decades followed the international trend of an expanding ‘contract state’. Public procurement is increasingly important to state operational and allocative concerns. South Africa’s public procurement regime is progressively configured into a centrally steered but decentralised organisational form. Inflected through domestic public procurement politics, however, the development of this organisational form has been truncated, with the establishment of only limited central steering capacity producing a public procurement regulatory regime which is weak, fragmented and incoherent, contributing to problems of state incapacity and corruption. In 2013 South Africa’s Minister of Finance announced a major push to reform South Africa’s contract state. The effort aims to better establish, locate and extend public procurement regulatory authority. It has begun to elaborate a centre-led, strategic and increasingly developmental procurement methodology. It is moving towards more flexibility, effectively an attempt to reduce rigidity in rules while building more robust and distributed disciplinary mechanisms, ones which take account of deficits in regulatory capacity and political will. We consider the potentials and pitfalls of these movements and suggest ways to optimise them.     

Economic structure and development in an emergent Asian economy: evidence from a social accounting matrix for vietnam

Vietnam started a wide-ranging process of economic reform in 1986 and is presently opening up its economy to regional and global economic forces. As a result, Vietnam faces significant challenges in the area of economic policy analysis in spite of a remarkable growth performance in recent years. This paper reviews insights emerging from a detailed social accounting matrix (SAM), compiled for the year 2000. The SAM reflects Vietnam’s heavy reliance on primary sector activities, but we also find that agricultural potential could be expanded significantly. In other sectors, the critical importance of sustained commitments to human capital development is apparent. In this context, the international donor community can support the ongoing transformation process through concerted training and capacity building initiatives that have proven successful elsewhere in the region.