美元现钞境外流通管理现状及启示

本文分析了美元现钞在境外流通的情况,以及美联储等对美元现钞境外流通的管理经验,结合人民币现钞境外流通状况提出了相关建议。本文认为,现钞的境外流通既会给发行国带来铸币税等收益,也会对经济金融政策产生影响。随着人民币国际化的逐步推进,人民币现钞境外流通规模的不断扩大,应借鉴美元经验,重视现钞境外流通对我国货币政策调控的影响,不断完善人民币现钞境外买卖市场结构,加强与境外相关机构的沟通交流。     

银行主导的人民币现钞跨境投放与回笼模式研究

随着人民币现钞在境外流通量的增加,加强对人民币现钞跨境投放与回笼的管理显得日渐迫切。在对我国目前人民币现钞跨境投放和回笼现状进行分析比较的基础上,提出了要按照符合人民币现钞管理目的和现钞物流效率的原则,建立规范的人民币现钞跨境投放和回笼模式,并给出了优化后模式的框架和基本内容。最后,提出了诸如建立人民币现钞跨境管理中心等政策建议。     

中蒙人民币现钞跨境流通规模现状及地位用途

中蒙贸易的快速发展,促进了双边贸易额逐年增加,人民币现钞对蒙古国跨境流动的数量也逐年增大。人民币现钞在蒙古国广泛流通使用。1993年起,中国人民银行出台相关政策从允许携带人民币现钞0．6万元提高至2万元出入境,为人民币现钞出入境奠定了法律基础。     

边境地区人民币现钞跨境流动情况的调查——来自呼伦贝尔市边境口岸的调查

一、中俄边境口岸人民币现钞跨境流动基本情况 受中俄贸易依存度及俄罗斯人传统观念的影响,目前人民币现钞在俄境内基本不流通。据调查,在俄罗斯远东地区用于边贸结算的人民币、卢布与美元三种现钞占比中,人民币仅为11％,且多数在做生意的中方客商及俄方炒汇人员手中。     

人民币现钞在蒙古国流通规模测算方法初步研究

本文总结了人民币现钞对蒙古国跨境流通的总体情况以及人民币在蒙古国的地位和用途,提出了人民币在蒙古国流通规模的抽样测算法和计量模型测算法。     

黑龙江省人民币现钞跨境流动情况分析

从现钞跨境流动总体态势上看,人民币现钞与卢布现钞双向跨境流动对比差距显著,历年跨境现钞流动调查均显示人民币与卢布现钞流动比达到1:5,而且短时间内这种差距难以扭转,通过对黑龙江省人民币现钞跨境流动情况进行研究,能够合理引导和推动人民币现钞在俄罗斯法规制度框架内跨境流动,特别是在2012年8月俄罗斯加入WTO之后,将给中俄间现钞结算带来机遇和挑战。     

边境口岸地区人民币跨境流通潜在的风险探究

（一）人民币跨境流通结算方式上存在的风险。近几年来，在边境口岸现金结算是非常普遍的，现钞结算虽然可以使出口商迅速得到货款，但是由于要携带现钞出入境．不但会危及客商的人身安全，而且不能纳入到外汇监管体系，对现钞结算的总量、变化、渠道很难做到准确和全面的估计。     

中蒙人民币现钞跨境流动监测分析

近年来,中蒙两国经贸往来日益密切,双边经贸合作与跨境投资得到较快发展．人民币现钞在蒙古国的跨境流动已形成一定规模。如何做好中蒙人民币现钞跨境流动监测．积极推进人民币走出国门,扩大人民币的国际影响,本文在对中蒙人民币现钞跨境流动情况调查的基础上,分析人民币现钞跨境流动监测中存在的问题,并提出相关对策建议。     

中蒙口岸发展的对策建议

一、完善人民币跨境支付机制 （一）疏通银行结算渠道，为边贸交易提供结算便利 中方应积极加强与蒙古国边境地区的金融合作关系，建立与蒙古国银行间的账户代理行关系，疏通银行结算主渠道，减少边境虫易结算人民币现钞交易风险。     

从人民币现钞在北美洲的流通状况看人民币国际化

随着我国国家综合实力的不断增强,更趋频繁的国际贸易以及人民币国际化步伐的不断加快,对央行的货币管理职能提出了更高要求。本文在走访长沙海关、长沙市旅游局、长沙市公安局、中国银行湖南省分行、汇丰银行长沙分行、湖南大学金融学院等相关机构的基础上,结合美联储、加拿大中央银行、美国财政部、加拿大财政部、美国商务部、加拿大商务部、美国中央情报局、美国国家安全局、美国证券交易协会、中国银行纽约分行、花旗银行等权威机构网站数据,反应了人民币现钞在北美的流通现状,提出了目前影响人民币现钞境外流通的因素。最后,本文给出了规范人民币现钞跨境流动的对策建议。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.