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1.
Microeconometric models of tourists'' destination choice   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The focus of this paper is on the microeconometric analysis of spatial choice in a cross section. Nested multinomial logit models are used to analyze the determinants of individual choice among destinations and vacation activities. Cramer and Ridder's likelihood ratio test for pooled alternatives in multinomial logit models is sequentially applied in order to determine the adequate aggregation level of the mutually exclusive alternatives in the choice set. The specification test suggested by Chesher and Santos Silva (1992) is used to investigate whether or not the IIA proposition is fulfilled within the assumed choice subsets.  相似文献   

2.
This paper examines the use of Hermite polynomial quadrature to evaluate certain integrals in the maximum likelihood estimation of duration models.  相似文献   

3.
Estimating dynamic panel data discrete choice models with fixed effects   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This paper considers the estimation of dynamic binary choice panel data models with fixed effects. It is shown that the modified maximum likelihood estimator (MMLE) used in this paper reduces the order of the bias in the maximum likelihood estimator from O(T-1) to O(T-2), without increasing the asymptotic variance. No orthogonal reparametrization is needed. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate its performance in finite samples where T is not large. In probit and logit models containing lags of the endogenous variable and exogenous variables, the estimator is found to have a small bias in a panel with eight periods. A distinctive advantage of the MMLE is its general applicability. Estimation and relevance of different policy parameters of interest in this kind of models are also addressed.  相似文献   

4.
A comparison of financial duration models via density forecasts   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Using density forecast evaluation techniques, we compare the predictive performance of econometric specifications that have been developed for modeling duration processes in intra-day financial markets. The model portfolio encompasses various variants of the Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model and recently proposed dynamic factor models. The evaluation is conducted on time series of trade, price and volume durations computed from transaction data of NYSE listed stocks. The results show that simpler approaches perform at least as well as more complex methods. With respect to modeling trade duration processes, standard ACD models successfully account for duration dynamics while none of the models provides an acceptable specification for the conditional duration distribution. We find that the Logarithmic ACD, if based on a flexible innovation distribution, provides a quite robust and useful framework for the modeling of price and volume duration processes.  相似文献   

5.
Anna Gottard 《Metrika》2007,66(3):269-287
Graphical models use graphs to represent conditional independence relationships among random variables of a multivariate probability distribution. This paper introduces a new kind of chain graph models in which nodes also represent marked point processes. This is relevant to the analysis of event history data, i.e. data consisting of random sequences of events or time durations of states. Survival analysis and duration models are particular cases. This article considers the case of two marked point processes. The idea consists of representing a whole process by a single node and a conditional independence statement by a lack of connection. We refer to the resulting models as graphical duration models.  相似文献   

6.
A crucial ingredient in social interaction models is the structure of peer groups, which link individuals with similar characteristics. We propose and study a dynamic binary choice model with social interactions in which heterogeneity of peer group effects is modeled introducing diversity in individual characteristics and linking pairwise influences to a social distance between individuals. Our framework allows for mimetic as well as anti-mimetic interactions and a heterogeneous structure of peer groups across individuals. Dynamic equilibria are studied in the limit when the number of agents is large. We show that the model exhibits multiple equilibria resulting from conflicts between various group pressures the individuals are subjected to. We study in particular the correlation in the population at equilibrium between the characteristics of the agents and their decisions: this quantity has an interesting empirical interpretation and solves a simple analytical equation when the number of agents is large. Finally we discuss the empirical content of the model and present a consistent estimator for the parameter describing which is consistent for any typical population regardless of the structure of individual characteristics.  相似文献   

7.
Stochastic frontier models with multiple time-varying individual effects   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2  
This paper proposes a flexible time-varying stochastic frontier model. Similarly to Lee and Schmidt [1993, In: Fried H, Lovell CAK, Schmidt S (eds) The measurement of productive efficiency: techniques and applications. Oxford University Press, Oxford], we assume that individual firms’ technical inefficiencies vary over time. However, the model, which we call the “multiple time-varying individual effects” model, is more general in that it allows multiple factors determining firm-specific time-varying technical inefficiencies. This allows the temporal pattern of inefficiency to vary over firms. The number of such factors can be consistently estimated. The model is applied to data on Indonesian rice farms, and the changes in the efficiency rankings of farms over time demonstrate the model’s flexibility.
Young H. LeeEmail:
  相似文献   

8.
This paper reveals that the class of Affine Term Structure Models (ATSMs) introduced by Duffie and Kan (1996) is larger than previously considered in the literature. In the framework of risk factors following a Wishart autoregressive process, we define the Wishart Term Structure Model (WTSM) as an extension of a subclass of Quadratic Term Structure Models (QTSMs), derive simple parameter restrictions that ensure positive bond yields at all maturities, and observe that the usual constraint on affine processes requiring that the volatility matrix be diagonal up to a path independent linear invertible transformation can be considerably relaxed.  相似文献   

9.
Existing studies suggest that reforms that reduce the generosity of the unemployment benefits should lower unemployment. Despite the large number of such reforms implemented in Europe in the past decades, evidence from various data sources shows very little correlation with the evolution of unemployment. This paper suggests that the scant success of these labour market reforms can be explained by the interactions between unemployment insurance and other social assistance programmes. Evidence from the European Community Household Panel shows that recipients of unemployment insurance who are also eligible for other welfare schemes are indeed less sensitive to changes in the level and the duration of their benefits.  相似文献   

10.
In this paper we estimate, analyze and predict short-term non-technical loss (NTL) of electric power of Brazilian energy service companies based on different assumptions for the covariance structure of the errors and controlling for socio-economic confounding variables. Although the correlation among repeated responses is not usually of intrinsic interest, it is an important aspect of the data that must properly be accounted for to produce valid inferences in longitudinal or panel data analysis. In the extended linear mixed effects model, the covariance matrix of the response vector is comprised by two subcomponents, a random effect component that can represent between group variation and a intraclass or within group component. So, in order to adequately treat the longitudinal character of NTL data, we use the decomposition of these variance components to evaluate different architectures to the within group errors. Using data of 59 Brazilian distributing utilities from 2004 to 2012, we fit a conditionally independent errors model and three other models with autoregressive-moving average parametrization to the intraclass disturbances. Finally, we compare models using the MAD and MAPE metrics in the prediction of NTL for the year of 2013. The findings suggest that the approach can be satisfactorily implemented in future statistical analysis of NTL.  相似文献   

11.
We examine the use of the likelihood ratio (LR) statistic to test for unobserved heterogeneity in duration models, based on mixtures of exponential or Weibull distributions. We consider both the uncensored and censored duration cases. The asymptotic null distribution of the LR test statistic is not the standard chi-square, as the standard regularity conditions do not hold. Instead, there is a nuisance parameter identified only under the alternative, and a null parameter value on the boundary of the parameter space, as in Cho and White (2007a). We accommodate these and provide methods delivering consistent asymptotic critical values. We conduct a number of Monte Carlo simulations, comparing the level and power of the LR test statistic to an information matrix (IM) test due to Chesher (1984) and Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests of Kiefer (1985) and Sharma (1987). Our simulations show that the LR test statistic generally outperforms the IM and LM tests. We also revisit the work of van den Berg and Ridder (1998) on unemployment durations and of Ghysels et al. (2004) on interarrival times between stock trades, and, as it turns out, affirm their original informal inferences.  相似文献   

12.
13.
准确地预估用户的点击率,并根据该概率对商品排序以供用户选择在推荐系统领域有着重要的意义。推荐系统中常用的因子分解机等机器学习模型一般只考虑用户选择单个商品的概率,忽略了候选商品之间的相互影响,离散选择模型则考虑将商品候选集作为整体进行考虑。提出了使用深度学习模型来改进离散选择模型,模型使用相对特征层、注意力机制等网络结构帮助深度学习模型进行不同商品间的特征比较,研究结果表明引入离散选择模型的深度学习模型表现优于梯度提升决策树、因子分解机等模型。  相似文献   

14.
We derive the cost minimization counterpart to the usual utility maximization version of the multinomial logit (MNL) model. Equivalently, our model considers the reverse of the usual error structure in the maximization problem. The resulting model remains tractable but does not suffer from the IIA property of the MNL. Our technique also provides a variant on the standard CES model (that does not exhibit IIA either). We argue that these models are useful alternatives to the standard ones, and compare their predictions for firm pricing. We also discuss the properties of other reverse models.  相似文献   

15.
Interval-valued time series are interval-valued data that are collected in a chronological sequence over time. This paper introduces three approaches to forecasting interval-valued time series. The first two approaches are based on multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks and Holt’s exponential smoothing methods, respectively. In Holt’s method for interval-valued time series, the smoothing parameters are estimated by using techniques for non-linear optimization problems with bound constraints. The third approach is based on a hybrid methodology that combines the MLP and Holt models. The practicality of the methods is demonstrated through simulation studies and applications using real interval-valued stock market time series.  相似文献   

16.
This paper develops a regression limit theory for discrete choice nonstationary panels with large cross section (N) and time series (T) dimensions. Some results emerging from this theory are directly applicable in the wider context of M-estimation. This includes an extension of work by Wooldridge [Wooldridge, J.M., 1994. Estimation and Inference for Dependent Processes. In: Engle, R.F., McFadden, D.L. (Eds.). Handbook of Econometrics, vol. 4, North-Holland, Amsterdam] on the limit theory of local extremum estimators to multi-indexed processes in nonlinear nonstationary panel data models.It is shown that the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is consistent without an incidental parameters problem and has a limit theory with a fast rate of convergence N1/2T3/4 (in the stationary case, the rate is N1/2T1/2) for the regression coefficients and thresholds, and a normal limit distribution. In contrast, the limit distribution is known to be mixed normal in time series modeling, as shown in [Park, J.Y., Phillips, P.C.B., 2000, Nonstationary binary choice. Econometrica, 68, 1249–1280] (hereafter PP), and [Phillips, P.C.B., Jin, S., Hu, L., 2007. Nonstationary discrete choice: A corrigendum and addendum. Journal of Econometrics 141(2), 1115–1130] (hereafter, PJH).The approach is applied to exchange rate regime choice by monetary authorities, and we provide an analysis of the empirical phenomenon known as “fear of floating”.  相似文献   

17.
Important to many models of location choice is the role of local interactions or spillovers, whereby the payoffs from choosing a location depend in part on the number or attributes of other individuals or firms that choose the same or nearby locations in equilibrium. This paper develops the equilibrium properties of a broadly applicable and readily estimable class of sorting models that allow location decisions to depend on both fixed local attributes (including unobserved attributes) and local interactions, describes the conditions under which equilibria exist and are unique, and provides a test for uniqueness in empirical analyses of sorting equilibrium.  相似文献   

18.
Estimation of spatial autoregressive panel data models with fixed effects   总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13  
This paper establishes asymptotic properties of quasi-maximum likelihood estimators for SAR panel data models with fixed effects and SAR disturbances. A direct approach is to estimate all the parameters including the fixed effects. Because of the incidental parameter problem, some parameter estimators may be inconsistent or their distributions are not properly centered. We propose an alternative estimation method based on transformation which yields consistent estimators with properly centered distributions. For the model with individual effects only, the direct approach does not yield a consistent estimator of the variance parameter unless T is large, but the estimators for other common parameters are the same as those of the transformation approach. We also consider the estimation of the model with both individual and time effects.  相似文献   

19.
Rainer Dahlhaus 《Metrika》2000,51(2):157-172
In this paper we extend the concept of graphical models for multivariate data to multivariate time series. We define a partial correlation graph for time series and use the partial spectral coherence between two components given the remaining components to identify the edges of the graph. As an example we consider multivariate autoregressive processes. The method is applied to air pollution data. Received: June 1999  相似文献   

20.
In this paper we consider the problem of estimating nonparametric panel data models with fixed effects. We introduce an iterative nonparametric kernel estimator. We also extend the estimation method to the case of a semiparametric partially linear fixed effects model. To determine whether a parametric, semiparametric or nonparametric model is appropriate, we propose test statistics to test between the three alternatives in practice. We further propose a test statistic for testing the null hypothesis of random effects against fixed effects in a nonparametric panel data regression model. Simulations are used to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators and the test statistics.  相似文献   

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