Financial analysts' forecasts of earnings: A better surrogate for market expectations

The specification of the market expectation of accounting numbers is a common feature of many empirical studies in accounting and finance. Givoly and Lakonishok (1979) found that financial analysts' forecasts have information content. This study evaluates the quality of analysts' forecasts as surrogates for the market expectation of earnings and compares it with that of prediction models commonly used in research. Results indicate that prediction errors of analysts are more closely associated with security price movements, suggesting that analysts' forecasts provide a better surrogate for market expectations than forecasts generated by time-series models. The study also identifies factors that might contribute to the performance of the financial analysts'forecasts. The broadness of the information set employed by analysts and, to a lesser extent, their reliance on information released after the end of the fiscal year appear to be important contributors to their performance.     

Dividend Consistency: Rewards,Learning, and Expectations

The fact that many companies have a long track record of consistent dividend increases suggests that managers believe there is some benefit to establishing and maintaining such a pattern. Many companies, for example, follow a perennial policy of increasing the dividend in a particular quarter, maintaining it at the same level for the next three quarters, and then increasing it in the same quarter of the following year. But does the capital market reward companies for maintaining a consistent dividend policy? Do companies with a history of repeated dividend increases earn long‐term positive abnormal returns; and if so, how long do the returns persist? The authors find that companies earned significantly positive abnormal returns following each of the first five annual dividend increases, over and above the positive announcement‐month returns. Nevertheless, the reward decreases as the track record of dividend increases becomes longer. After the first dividend increase, companies enjoy significantly positive returns for the next two years. Companies that increase the dividend in the same quarter of the following year also enjoy significant positive returns, but returns that are smaller (and less statistically significant) than in the case of first‐time dividend increases. And as the dividend‐increase track record further lengthens, the size and statistical significance of the abnormal returns continues to shrink; and after the sixth dividend increase, the abnormal returns in the next twelve months are statistically indistinguishable from zero. In sum, although there is some support for maintaining a consistent dividend policy, the market response diminishes over time, and investors do not earn abnormal returns by buying stocks whose annual dividend has already been increased six or more times.     

进一步完善Shibor市场化形成机制的思考

Shibor在银行间市场推出一年多以来,报价质量不断提高,Shibor的利率基准作用初步显现。为进一步完善Shibor的市场化形成机制,文章建议,要不断提高Shibor报价权威性及代表性,扩大Shibor在客户市场定价基准的影响力,Shibor建设应与利率市场化改革协调发展,整体推进,并不断完善拆借交易的信用基础。     

Recent Developments in the Aviation Insurance Industry

The aviation industry has been hard hit in recent years. While there are numerous factors that have contributed to the industry's dilemma, rising and volatile insurance premiums—particularly after the events of 9/11—have posed a particular problem for many airline managers. Despite a general trend for accident rates involving commercial passenger airplanes to decrease as aviation technology has advanced over the years and airplanes have become safer, the aviation insurance market has been far from stable. This article provides an overview of how the aviation insurance industry works and how it has changed in recent years. We take a look at how the risk is spread between insurers, how insurers treat deliberate acts of violence, and lastly, how insurers price the risk. Our article shows that the aviation insurance market has undergone considerable changes in recent years and that it has adjusted to the post-9/11 aviation insurance realities being reasonably ready to handle events of an even more catastrophic magnitude.     

The association between management earnings forecasts, earnings management, and stock market valuation: Evidence from French IPOs

This study investigates managers' motivations to engage in earnings management through purposeful interventions in the setting of discretionary accruals, in the context of initial public offerings (IPOs) in France. Firms issuing forecasts in their prospectuses are expected to differ from nonforecasters in the level of earnings management during the year following the public offering. Within the context of contracting theory, four research questions are addressed. First, are IPO firms issuing forecasts more inclined to manage earnings 1 year after an IPO compared to nonforecasting firms? Second, is a forecasting firm's level of earnings management conditioned by earnings-forecast deviation? Third, is earnings management by IPO forecasting firms affected by contractual and governance environments? Fourth, how do investors see through earnings management following IPO earnings forecasts, i.e., how do stock market participants value earnings components (i.e., nondiscretionary and discretionary accruals)? Our findings document that in the year following an IPO, the magnitude of earnings management is much higher for forecasters than for nonforecasters. Results also show that a firm's accrual behavior is affected by earnings-forecast deviation, but the relationship is moderated by contractual and governance constraints. Finally, it would appear that French investors do not adequately readjust the relationship between reported earnings and a firm's market value for the year in which earnings are subject to manipulations.     

Beyond the blockchain announcement: Signaling credibility and market reaction

We study how signaling credibility of firms' announcements affects market reactions with the blockchain announcements as the research object. The blockchain announcements have led to a significantly positive increase in the value of listed firms since blockchain technology was valued in China. We find that high-tech firms with more technological attributes and reserves could be seen as more credible and trigger more significant stock returns than non-high-tech firms. In addition, state-owned high-tech firms with normal financial status and voluntary disclosure would augment such signaling credibility. In general, the results support that corporate announcements' signaling credibility is vital for market reaction.     

Partial adjustment toward target capital structures

The empirical literature provides conflicting assessments about how firms choose their capital structures. Distinguishing among the three main hypotheses (“tradeoff”, pecking order, and market timing) requires that we know whether firms have long-run leverage targets and (if so) how quickly they adjust toward them. Yet many previous researchers have applied empirical specifications that fail to recognize the potential for incomplete adjustment. A more general, partial-adjustment model of firm leverage indicates that firms do have target capital structures. The typical firm closes about one-third of the gap between its actual and its target debt ratios each year.     

Value-at-risk forecasts under scrutiny—the German experience

We present an analysis of the VaR forecasts and the P&L series of all 12 German banks that used internal models for regulatory purposes throughout the period from the beginning of 2001 to the end of 2004. One task of a supervisor is to estimate the ‘recalibration factor’, i.e. by how much a bank over- or underestimates its VaR. The Basel traffic light approach to backtesting, which maps the count of exceptions in the trailing year to a multiplicative penalty factor, can be viewed as a way to estimate the ‘recalibration factor’. We introduce techniques that provide a much more powerful inference on the recalibration factor than the Basel approach based on the count of exceptions. The notions ‘return on VaR (RoVaR)’ and ‘well-behaved forecast system’ are keys to linking the problem at hand to the established literature on the evaluation of density forecasts. We perform extensive bootstrapping analyses allowing (1) an assessment of the accuracy of our estimates of the recalibration factor and (2) a comparison of the estimation error of different scale and quantile estimators. Certain robust estimators turn out to outperform the more popular estimators used in the literature. Empirical results for the non-public data are compared to the corresponding results for hypothetical portfolios based on publicly available market data. While these comparisons have to be interpreted with care since the banks' P&L data tend to be more contaminated with errors than the major market indices, they shed light on the similarities and differences between banks' RoVaRs and market index returns.     

Health Care Reform,Efficiency of Health Insurers,and Optimal Health Insurance Markets

This research examines the efficiency of the U.S. health insurers. It shows that more insurers are less efficient than in the previous sample year; however, the results suggest that the federal health care reform has no significant effect on the overall efficiency of all insurers as a whole, which is very low but does not change much over time. This research explores how to improve the efficiency of the health insurance market by proposing state, regional, and national efficiency-based goal-oriented market models and an efficiency duplicating system, and it discusses important implications to the health care compacts, the health insurance exchanges or marketplaces, and the national multistate programs. It also analyzes further moves for efficiency enhancement with regard to payment methods and the health care delivery system. One interesting finding is that the Medicaid program is very efficient because it provides support to the offering of Medicaid coverage and further expansion, which enhances the health welfare of society with fewer resources inputs from the perspective of efficiency. This research should provide important insights for state and federal governments, policy makers, regulators, the health insurance industry, and consumers.     

A more rational approach to new-product development

Companies often treat new-product development as a monolithic process, but it can be more rationally divided into two parts: an early stage that focuses on evaluating prospects and eliminating bad bets, and a late stage that maximizes the remaining candidates' market potential. Recognizing the value of this approach, Eli Lilly designed and piloted Chorus, an autonomous unit dedicated solely to the early stage. This article demonstrates how segmenting development in this way can speed it up and make it more cost-effective. Two classes of decision-making errors can impede NPD, the authors say. First, managers often ignore evidence challenging their assumptions that projects will succeed. As a result, many projects go forward despite multiple red flags; some even reach the market, only to fail dramatically after their introduction. Second, companies sometimes terminate projects prematurely because people fail to conduct the right experiments to reveal products' potential. Most companies promote both kinds of errors by focusing disproportionately on late-stage development; they lack the early, truth-seeking functions that would head such errors off. In segmented NPD, however, the early-stage organization maintains loyalty to the experiment rather than the product, whereas the late-stage organization pursues commercial success. Chorus has significantly improved NPD efficiency and productivity at Lilly. Although the unit absorbs just one-tenth of Lilly's investment in early-stage development, it delivers a substantially greater fraction of the molecules slated for late Phase II trials--at almost twice the speed and less than a third of the cost of the standard process, sometimes shaving as much as two years off the usual development time.     

Engineering,a civilising influence?

The global environment is increasingly under threat and we face a challenge with little time to respond. Are we prepared to change the actions and attitudes that have led to this parlous situation, and if we are, how do we do it? Is the world ready for a more ecologically benign, less economically driven, peaceful and spiritually oriented way of living? My challenge lies in higher education. How do you encourage such values in a tertiary education system which has spent many years applying and rewarding a ‘respond to the market’ discourse? My responses are grounded in transformative education research with large diverse cohorts of first year engineering students. This paper also uses a critical futures methodology, Causal Layered Analysis, to update my concerns about Australian engineering education and the profession, using two recent reports. The aim is to offer constructive insights that may be transferable to educators in other contexts.     

Financial Management Association Roundtable on Stock Market Pricing and Value‐Based Management

A group of academics and practitioners addresses a number of questions about the workings of the stock market and its implications for corporate decision‐making. The discussion begins by asking what the market wants from companies: Is it mainly just steady increases in earnings per share, which are then “capitalized” by the market at the current industry P/E multiple to produce a higher stock price? Or does the market pay attention to the “quality,” or sustainability, of earnings? And are there more revealing measures of annual corporate performance than GAAP earnings—measures that would provide investors with a better sense of companies' future cash‐generating capacity and returns on capital? The consensus was that although many investors respond uncritically to earnings numbers, the most sophisticated and influential investors consider far more than current earnings when pricing stocks. And although the stock market is far from omniscient, the heightened scrutiny of companies resulting from the growth of hedge funds, private equity, and investor activism of all kinds appears to be making the market “more efficient” in building information into stock prices. The second part of the discussion explored the implications of this view of the market pricing process for corporate strategy and the evaluation of major investment opportunities. For example, do acquisitions have to be “EPS‐accretive” to be value‐adding, or is there a more reliable means of assessing an investment's value added than pro forma EPS effects? Does the DCF valuation method always offer a better guide to value than the method of comparables used by many Wall Street dealmakers? And under what circumstances are the relatively new real options valuation approaches likely to provide a significant advantage over conventional methods? The main message offered to corporate practitioners is to avoid letting cosmetic accounting effects get in the way of value‐adding investment and operating decisions. As the corporate record on acquisitions makes painfully clear, there is no guarantee that an accretive deal will turn out to be value‐increasing (in fact, the odds are that it will not). As for choosing a valuation method, there appears to be a time and place for each of the major methods—comparables, DCF, and real options—and the key to success is understanding which method is best suited to the circumstances.     

The choice of the distribution of asset returns: How extreme value theory can help?

One of the issues of risk management is the choice of the distribution of asset returns. Academics and practitioners have assumed for a long time (for more than three decades) that the distribution of asset returns is a Gaussian distribution. Such an assumption has been used in many fields of finance: building optimal portfolio, pricing and hedging derivatives and managing risks. However, real financial data tend to exhibit extreme price changes such as stock market crashes that seem incompatible with the assumption of normality. This article shows how extreme value theory can be useful to know more precisely the characteristics of the distribution of asset returns and finally help to chose a better model by focusing on the tails of the distribution. An empirical analysis using equity data of the US market is provided to illustrate this point.     

Three Decades of IPO Markets in Canada: Evolution,Risk and Return

This article explores the extent that the long‐run returns following initial public offerings (IPOs) can explain the asserted decrease in IPOs in Canada. The causes of such a decrease remain controversial, in part because of our limited knowledge of this market. We first describe in detail the evolution of Canadian IPOs on the senior and the venture stock exchanges over three decades (1986–2016). This evolution differs considerably between natural resource and non‐natural resource firms. Second, using other junior markets as a benchmark, we show that the Canadian IPO market is very particular, mainly because it lists very small firms at an early development stage. Third, using 2,145 Canadian IPOs, we provide evidence that these IPOs generate three‐year negative average abnormal returns, and more than 70 percent report negative abnormal returns. Large issuers reporting profits constitute the only subsample that provides fair returns, but they account for less than 5 percent of IPOs. Such a market probably survived for many decades because of investors' preference for skewness and the characteristics of the returns' distribution. We observe a high level of skewness of abnormal returns, consistent with the behavioral finance proposition that investors are often unduly optimistic when valuing lottery stocks.     

智能化对中国劳动力市场的影响——基于就业广度和强度的分析

随着自动化、智能化技术的不断发展,越来越多的工作岗位可能被机器和人工智能所替代。本文将美国劳工部标准职业代码与中国职业代码相匹配,基于Frey and Osborne(2017)对美国各种职业被智能化替代概率的估计结果,估算了中国各职业被智能化替代的概率,并在此基础上计算了城市层面的被替代指标。接下来,利用多个年份的人口普查和家庭调查微观数据以及欧盟的机器人使用数据,本文在城市层面和个人层面估计了智能化对就业广度(就业人数)和就业强度(工作时长)的影响。研究发现,智能化对中国劳动就业产生了明显的替代作用,一方面减少了就业人数的增长,另一方面却增加了在职劳动力的工作时间,分样本分析发现女性、低教育劳动者、大龄劳动者、移民等劳动力市场中相对脆弱的群体所受的冲击更大。     

CEO EXTRAVERSION AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE DECISIONS: THE ROLE OF FIRM DYNAMICS,PRODUCT MARKET COMPETITION,AND FINANCIAL CRISIS

Using panel data of U.S. firms, we focus on an important yet understudied facet of the chief executive officer's (CEO) personality—extraversion—and how it affects corporate capital structure decisions. We examine how this relation is moderated by financing (tax) benefits, financial crisis, firm size, growth opportunities, and collateralization. The results show that firms managed by extraverted CEOs use greater financial leverage, adjusting toward target leverage levels at a faster speed, with about half-life within a year for book and market leverage. In addition, the positive extraversion–leverage relation is enhanced for firms that are large, have greater collateralizable assets, and are more vulnerable to external shocks (financial crisis). Last, although the positive extraversion–leverage relation holds particularly when product market competition is high, the effect is attenuated for high-growth opportunity firms.     

Abnormal investor response to the index effect for daily and intraday data

Events that directly affect stock indices are of considerable importance to various index instruments such as ETFs and index funds. One of the most important of such events involves updating the index, which takes place once or twice per year. The effect this has on the capital markets is known as the “index effect”, and it is one of the strongest and most influential long-term effects. Using two different methods, I examine how the index effect impacts the Israeli capital markets. I examine the three leading market indices—the Tel-Aviv 25, the Tel-Aviv 75, and the Tel-Tech 15—for firms whose stocks enter and exit their respective index for both daily and intraday data. In the first examination, I divide the sample based on firms entering/exiting each of these three market indices and examine the index effect using daily data. This analysis shows that the market responds differently for firms entering and exiting the Tel-Aviv 25 than it does for the two other indices. For the second examination, the sample is divided based on each stock’s volatility during the period prior to the event using intraday data. This analysis shows that more volatile stocks respond more strongly to the indexing event.     

CRM analytics: The fuel for the engine

How often are there articles about customer relations (CRM) in the press today? Almost as many as there were about Year 2000 last year! How many companies state that the customer is king but can do or are doing anything about this? Few really attempt to improve or build relationships with customers or increase their product holdings; treating a customer as an individual and not just another record is still rare. The opinion in many companies seems to be that they can buy a system to deliver what is needed, which is true, but the system is only as good as the rules that drive it, hence the emergence of CRM analytics. This paper aims to illustrate to the reader how a company can start to apply CRM from an analytical rather than from a purely technological angle.