社会资本、人力资本与经济增长

笔者采用截面数据回归分析法及时间序列数据协整分析法对中国社会资本的不同维度——信任和民间组织与人力资本、经济增长的关系进行实证研究。结果表明,我国社会资本通过影响人力资本而影响经济增长,人力资本是我国社会资本作用于经济增长的机制之一。     

Nontraded Goods,Capital Taxes,and Temporary Immigration in a Small Open Economy

This paper extends the standard (one-good, two-factor) model of international capital and labor mobility by incorporating a nontraded good within a small capital-exporting, labor-importing country. It examines, from this country's perspective, the effects of capital taxes and temporary immigration on the nominal wage, and on welfare, and derives the optimal policy toward capital. It demonstrates, among other things, that (i) the optimal policy toward capital may be a tax on its domestic rate of return, depending on the factor intensity of the nontraded good and on the relationship between capital and labor in production, and (ii) the distinction between temporary and permanent immigration is important in evaluating its effects on various economic variables. [F20, F22]     

Tariff Revenue, Government Expenditure and Growth in a Small Open Economy

I develop a small open endogenous growth model with domestic and foreign intermediate goods. The Marshallian external economies in the domestic intermediate goods sector work as the engine of sustained growth. The model offers two arguments. First, imposing a trade distortion is growth- and welfare-improving if the government uses the tariff revenue for correcting the domestic distortion. Second, comparing the tariff with a lump-sum tax as a financing device, the former is certainly worse than the latter with respect to both growth and welfare if the two intermediate goods are substitutes.
JEL Classification Numbers: F43, H20.     

Growth, Trade, and Government Policies of a Small Open Economy

Utilizing a linear endogenous growth model, the paper provides an economic rationale for two empirical findings: the positive correlation between export growth and income growth, and the association of rapid structural changes with fast income growth. In the benchmark case, the small open economy converges eventually to a balanced growth path along which exports and total output grow at the same constant rate as consumption. Government policies affect the pattern of specialization and trade since they change the autarky or foreign relative price. Only taxation on the capital goods sector can affect asymptotic growth rates.     

Growth and the Current Account in a Small Open Economy

The authors provide a framework with which to analyze growth in a small economy with perfect capital mobility. The framework provides a diagrammatic representation of steady states that differs in interesting and important ways from the usual closed-economy Solow-Swan diagram. The authors use the key diagrams to illustrate the effects of changes in parameters such as the saving rate and productivity growth on steady-state values of macroeconomic aggregates. They compare the steady-state results for the open economy with those obtained using the more familiar closed-economy model. They illustrate the possibility of endogenous income growth.     

Social Security and Growth in an Altruistic Economy

This paper studies the macroeconomic impact of private and public intergenerational transfers in the presence of endogenous growth. It focuses on two-sided altruism implying that individuals have both a motive to make gifts to their parents and a motive to leave bequests to their children. The growth effects of social security depend on whether children are making gifts to their parents or parents are leaving bequests to their children. Which of the transfers is operative, in turn, depends on the size of social security benefits. Social security is legislated endogenously. The introduction of a social security program which definitely reduces per capita income growth and harms future generations is contemplated by altruistic individuals even if non-altruistic individuals disapprove it.     

An Endogenous Growth Model of a Financially Repressed Small Open Economy

The paper develops a monetary endogenous growth model of a financially repressed small open economy, characterized by curb markets, capital mobility, transaction costs in domestic and foreign capital markets, and a flexible exchange rate system, to analyze the impact of financial liberalization – interest rate deregulation and lower multiple reserve requirements – on growth and inflation. When the model is calibrated to match world figures, we find that interest rate deregulation enhances growth and reduces inflation in steady-state. For relatively smaller transaction costs in the curb market, the above result is, however, reversed. Under such circumstances, lowering the transaction costs in the foreign capital market tends to restore the growth-enhancing (inflation-reducing) capabilities of interest rate deregulation. Lower reserve requirements, though, always ensures lower (higher) steady-state inflation (growth).     

Equilibrium Growth in a Small Economy Facing an Imperfect World Capital Market

A growth model of a developing economy facing an upward-sloping curve of debt is analyzed. Equilibrium is characterized by transitional dynamics in which consumption, capital, and debt converge to a common growth rate. The adjustment is through the debt-capital ratio, which drives the borrowing rate to a level at which growth rates are equalized. The economy is subject to two externalities: a production externality associated with government expenditure, and a financial externality associated with the upward-sloping supply of debt. The tax structure that enables the decentalized economy to attain the first-best equilibrium is characterized.     

International Borrowing, Specialization, and Unemployment in a Small Open Economy

The authors show that an increase in international borrowing increases specialization and unemployment in a small open economy that is subject to terms‐of‐trade risks. The economy has a production advantage in the export sector. However, the size of the export sector is limited by the available funds. To insure workers against income fluctuations arising from terms‐of‐trade risks, firms in the export sector offer workers a stable wage rate with the possibility of unemployment. An increase in international borrowing increases specialization in the export sector, which leads to higher unemployment when the terms‐of‐trade shock is bad. A state‐contingent price subsidy can reduce unemployment without inefficiently reducing specialization. The results are robust to the introduction of risk‐averse firms.     

Catching-up and Regulation in a Two-Sector Small Open Economy

Deregulation is often aimed at reducing mark-up pricing in technologically stagnant sheltered sectors. The paper shows that this may decrease the process of catching-up and welfare since it shifts resources away from R&D-intensive tradables sectors. Catching-up and deregulation are analyzed in an R&D-based growth model that allows for international capital mobility, trade, and spillovers. Knowledge spillovers raise the productivity of R&D in the exposed sector which results in catching-up. In the long run, the economy grows at the exogenous world growth rate. Capital mobility speeds up convergence. Temporary shocks have long-lasting effects as the economy exhibits hysteresis.     

Income Tax, Property Tax, and Tariff in a Small Open Economy

Why do some countries enjoy high economic growth rates while some suffer in “low-growth traps”? Why are tax policies in different countries so different? Some suggest that it is exactly these differences in government policies which contribute to the difference in economic growth rates. This paper considers a small open economy which sustains its economic growth by adopting new technologies. When the value of initial wealth is “relatively small,” policies which promote growth most result in the highest welfare. In other cases, policies that discourage growth most may be welfare-maximizing.     

Devaluation, Asymmetric Money Demand, and Investment in a Small Open Economy

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and investment when cash is required to purchase some consumption goods in a small open economy while others are purchased with foreign currency or on credit. Devaluation acts as a differential tax on the good that must be purchased with domestic money and lowers the return to the factor used intensively in this sector. If this sector is relatively labor intensive, the steady-state capital stock will increase in response to higher inflation. Nonneutrality of inflation exists even though money is only held for consumption purposes.     

Human Capital, Growth, and Inequality in Russia

Our model captures the fact that Russia has both much human capital and an education system that produces the wrong skills for a market economy. We define a rule for the timing of educational restructuring that is Pareto optimal and that dominates all later times in a Paretian sense while simultaneously reducing inequality. We demonstrate that failure to implement restructuring early in the transition process is likely to produce a very long delay that will significantly reduce Russia's human capital. A retreat from subsidizing public education is likely to be counterproductive. We argue that early educational restructuring should be emphasized in Russia's transition strategy. J. Comp. Econom., December 1999, 27(4), pp. 618–643. Lingnan University, Tuen Mun, N.T., Hong Kong, People's Republic of China; University of Colorado, Denver, Denver, Colorado 88217; and Royal Holloway College, University of London, Egham, Surrey TW20 OEX, United Kingdom.     

Privatization in a Small Open Economy with Imperfect Competition

We look at privatization in a general equilibrium model of a small, tariff‐distorted, open economy. There is a differentiated good produced by both private and public sector enterprises. A reduction in government production in order to cut losses from such production raises the returns to capital and increases the tariff revenue, which are welfare‐improving. However, privatization also leads to lower wages and possibly fewer private brands. This lowers workers’ welfare, which may make privatization politically infeasible. Privatization can improve workers’ welfare with complementary reforms, e.g., attracting foreign investment or trade liberalization.     

Capital Taxation and External Accounts in a Small Growing Economy

The effects of capital taxation on external accounts depend on how government allocates the tax revenue. With government debt being endogenous, an increase in either the residential or territorial capital tax rate may decrease net foreign asset holdings. With intergenerational transfers being endogenous, an increase in either the residential or territorial capital tax rate may increase net foreign asset holdings. With government spending being endogenous, an increase in the residential capital tax rate may either deteriorate or have no effect on the external accounts.     

Social Security, Optimality, and Equilibria in a Stochastic Overlapping Generations Economy

Social security institutions implement intergenerational transfers and distribute risks over time. To compare various social security designs, we study an overlapping generations model with demographic shocks. Production takes place through a neoclassical production function subject to productivity shocks. We give a near characterization of optimal allocations. We study rational expectations equilibria when contributions are mandatory, based on labor and capital income. We also describe the equilibria of an economy with a voluntary pay-as-you-go social security fund, and show that they have a long-run optimality property. An example with Cobb–Douglas production and utility functions illustrates the results.     

中国城市物质资本、人力资本和社会资本估算

本文将社会资本嵌入内生经济增长模型,并对1988～2008年期间中国48个重点城市物质资本、人力资本和社会资本进行了估算和比较.其中物质资本存量的估算采用永续盘存法,人力资本估算采用受教育年限法,而对于社会资本的估算则建立和采用基于永续盘存法和社会网络关系的经济学测度模型,并在模型中对工作流动对社会资本的贬值进行考虑.研究表明.处于城市化第三阶段的城市物质资本和人力资本的初始存量低于其他城市化阶段.整体上,任何城市化阶段的物质资本和人力资本均呈现增长趋势,而城市化第三阶段的社会资本初始存量却高于其他城市化阶段.但无论任何城市化阶段的城市社会资本均呈现下降趋势,处于城市化第三阶段的城市下降速度最快.     

社会保障支出对人力资本培育有效性分析

利用2000—2010年的时间序列数据,通过Eviews分析对社会保障支出和人力资本的动态关系进行实证分析。研究表明,社会保障支出与人力资本之间存在长期协整关系,社会保障支出变化确实是人力资本变化的原因。提出社会保障支出在对人力资本培育中的一些建议。     

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy

We lay out a small open economy version of the Calvo sticky price model, and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to a simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap. We use the resulting framework to analyse the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rule-based policy regimes for the small open economy: domestic inflation and CPI-based Taylor rules, and an exchange rate peg. We show that a key difference among these regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail. We also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy, and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules.