浙江出口贸易增长影响因素的实证分析

本文利用浙江1990-2007年的年度数据,运用协整和误差修正模型等计量方法,对浙江出口增长的影响因素进行了实证分析。结论表明,浙江机电产品出口规模、世界经济波动等因素与浙江出口贸易额之间存在长期协整关系,并且这些因素对浙江出口有着显著的影响作用。     

广东省与东盟农产品贸易流量与贸易潜力分析——基于引力模型的研究

随着"早期收获"计划实施,广东从东盟进口农产品快速增加,但对东盟出口却增长缓慢,甚至出现下滑的不利局面。本文运用引力模型对影响广东农产品出口的因素进行了验证,并对出口东盟农产品流量进行了测算分析。研究表明,广东对东盟农产品出口流量受东盟国家的GDP、人均GDP、距离以及区域贸易制度安排等因素的影响;广东同大多数东盟国家农产品贸易呈现"贸易不足",广东农产品对东盟出口仍有很大的增长空间。     

浙江出口增长波动及影响因素的实证研究

文章从要素驱动、成本推动、外源促进和结构优化四个角度,以1990-2009年浙江出口数据作为样本空间,通过构建结构增长模型对浙江出口增长波动的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,推动浙江出口增长波动的关键诱因在于产业结构优化和要素投入冲击,成本和外部资源对出口波动影响较弱。当前,浙江必须减少对传统要素驱动型增长路径的依赖,巩固和深化结构优化型增长模式,并努力开辟效率优先型和创新导向型的出口增长新路径。     

需求、结构、竞争力与中国蔬菜出口增长——基于修正的CMS模型

文章利用修正的CMS模型,从需求、结构和竞争力三个维度对1997～2010年中国蔬菜出口的增长效应及各影响因素的作用强度和变化趋势进行了实证分析。研究表明,出口竞争力是中国蔬菜出口增长的主要影响因素,但对出口增长的作用强度有所减弱;快速增长的进口需求对中国蔬菜出口增长的促进作用逐渐增强;不断改善的出口结构对中国蔬菜出口增长的正面促进作用逐步显现。     

浙江省对外贸易与经济增长关系的协整分析

近几年来,浙江对外贸易增速全国领先,规模位居全国前列,贸易顺差更是连续多年名列全国第一。浙江对外贸易的快速发展对推动经济增长起到了十分重要的作用。本文根据协整理论,利用浙江省1981-2003年统计数据,对浙江对外贸易和经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:从长期看,浙江经济增长与出口、进口、消费、投资之间存在着长期稳定的关系,出口、消费和投资明显促进了经济增长,而进口对经济增长影响并不显著。从短期看,出口和进口共同对经济增长起促进作用。本文最后从宏观、中观和微观三个层面提出浙江对外贸易实现可持续发展的对策建议。     

广东纺织服装业出口竞争力研究

广东是我国纺织品和服装的生产大省和出口大省,纺织服装业在广东的出口贸易中处于重要地位。随着全球纺织品服装贸易进入全球经济一体化新时代,广东纺织服装业既面临重大的发展机遇,也面临着更为激烈的竞争。本文借鉴相关领域研究成果和竞争力评价方法,对广东纺织服装业的出口竞争力现状及主要影响因素进行定量分析并对广东省与同为纺织服装业出口大省的江苏和浙江在IMS指数和RCA指数方面进行比较分析,得出广东纺织服装业的优劣势。基于上述分析,提出了相应对策,以增进广东纺织服装业的出口竞争力。     

推动广东出口增长的因素分析

国际贸易理论分别从比较优势和收益递增两个方面对出口贸易发生的原因进行了合理的解释。运用出口贸易增长的动因模型,选取时间序列数据,尝试对影响广东出口贸易增长的动因进行实证分析与研究。实证研究结果表明,比较优势和收益递增两个因素都较好地解释了广东的出口贸易增长情况,其分析结果也显示,在广东的对外贸易中,收益递增是推动出口增长的主要原因。     

跨境电商零售出口快速增长粤港沪位列前三大出口中心

eBay11月27日在北京发布的《大中华区跨境电子商务零售出口产业地图》显示，在“跨境交易“和“电子商务”双引擎的拉动下，中国跨境电子商务零售出口快速增长，并逐步形成了各具特色的跨境电商零售出口中心，广东、香港、上海、浙江、北京、台湾、江苏和福建分列大中华区跨境零售出口总交易额前八席。     

广东口岸纺织品和鞋类产品对欧盟出口增长过快 将对今后出口带来不利影响

今年起欧盟取消对华纺织品和鞋类产品出口配额限制，受其影响，1至2月广东对欧盟出口服装及衣着附件1．9亿美元，增长1．3倍，出口纺织纱线、织物及制品2960万美元，增长51％，出口鞋类1．2亿美元，增长42.2％，远高于出口整体增幅，表明配额取消后出口潜力正逐步释放出来。广东在对欧盟出口快速增长的同时，应关注欧盟新普惠制提前实施和可能实施限制进口措施带来的双重不利影响。     

浙江贸易超调表现、成因及对策探讨

本文先通过对浙江外贸和经济总量的定量分析,发现贸易超调在浙江普遍存在;接着,从出口商品结构、经济开放度、经济形势、主要出口市场贸易政策和浙江独特因素等五个方面归纳出影响浙江贸易超调的主要因素;最后,提出从战略层面实现三个转变和相对应的战术性策略规避浙江贸易超调。     

Country Resources,Country Image,and Exports: Country Branding and International Marketing Implications

ABSTRACT

A country's economic, political, and socio-cultural institutions have always been regarded as important determinants of a company's exports and international marketing strategies. With the recent thinking about countries becoming more like a brand, these factors should impact a country's marketing and branding strategies. There has been a call for more research on how countries can use their institutions and resources to enhance their globalization efforts. This study intends to fill this gap by examining the relationships between country institutions and resources, country image, and exports based on institution theory and resource advantage theory. Both archival and primary data for 24 countries over 12 years (1995–2006) were used to assess a random-effects panel data model. The results reveal the significance of economic development and communication infrastructure on exports. In addition, country image was found to indirectly affect exports. The theoretical and practical implications on country branding and international marketing conclude the article.     

Transition,regulation and trade in services

Market-oriented reforms launched at the beginning of the 1990s have had a profound impact on the restructuring of the service sector in transition economies. Reforms have introduced complex regulatory changes that substantially diminished the barriers to competition in services, thereby improving the supply of services. The article explores the patterns and effects of regulatory changes in the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) on services exports in the period 1993–2004. The econometric analysis finds a statistically significant impact of the regulatory reforms on service exports. The effects are more significant for the period 1999–2004 and seem to suggest that efficient implementation of reforms during the accession process had beneficial consequences also for service exports. However, there is enough room for the CEECs to dismantle further the obstacles to services provision and to improve the governance of the service markets within the internal market for services.     

双向知识产权保护对中国出口三元边际的影响

理论分析了双向知识产权保护对出口国出口三元边际的影响,并选取2005—2015年中国出口到世界65个国家的HS-6位贸易数据,构建引力模型进行了实证验证。主要结论是,国内加强知识产权保护可以提升中国的出口种类和数量,贸易伙伴国加强知识产权保护可以提升中国的出口种类;没有证据表明,国内或国外知识产权保护水平的提升会影响中国的出口价格;当国内知识产权保护更强时,双向知识产权保护对中国出口种类的促进作用都有所增强,反之则二者作用都不显著;分国家类型的研究表明,双向知识产权保护的同时加强更有益于中国向发展中国家出口产品种类的扩张,但对发达国家则不显著。     

Exchange Rate Shocks and U.S. Services and Agricultural Exports: Which Export Sector is More Affected?

In this article, a vector autoregressive model is constructed with monthly data from 1992:1 to 2009:12 to investigate the exchange rate propagation mechanisms to real exports of U.S. services and agricultural sectors. Using plausible identification assumptions consistent with many open economy macro models, the results indicate that exchange rate shocks impact services exports more than they do on agricultural exports. Moreover, the shocks are more persistent on services relative to agricultural exports.     

Exchange rates,labour costs and international competitiveness

The international competitiveness of German industry, so greatly dependent on exports, is in large measure determined both by fluctuations in the rate of exchange and by the level of its labour costs in relation to those of its competitors in the world market. Recent trends in these two factors are discussed in the following article.     

基于钻石模型的区域农业国际竞争力研究——以湖南省为例

加入世贸组织之后,湖南省的农产品出口增长迅速,年均增长超过20%,同时也遇到了许多问题和障碍。本文基于钻石模型理论框架,从竞争潜力、竞争实力和竞争业绩的角度分析了湖南省农业国际竞争力的现状,并针对性地提出了完善湖南省农产品出口产业链和调整产业结构、提升需求档次和挖掘需求潜力、政府介入市场失灵领域、培育有竞争力的市场主体等发展对策。     

From the Editor

This article empirically verifies the export-led growth hypothesis for Bangladesh and examines whether manufacturing exports have become a new engine of the export-led growth in Bangladesh, replacing the total exports-engine, as claimed by the so called de novo hypothesis. The empirical assessment based on the vector error correction modeling (VECM) that uses quarterly data over the period 1974–1999 suggests that both total exports and manufacturing exports have had positive and statistically significant impacts both in the long run and the short run. But an encompassing test in conjunction with the various non-nested tests suggests that total exports, as opposed to manufacturing exports in isolation, is the dominant engine of the export-led growth. This refutes the claim that manufacturing exports has become the sole determinant of the export-led growth in Bangladesh.     

International trade in durable goods: Understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elasticities

Data for OECD countries document: 1. imports and exports are about three times as volatile as GDP; 2. imports and exports are pro-cyclical, and positively correlated with each other; 3. net exports are counter-cyclical. Standard models fail to replicate the behavior of imports and exports, though they can match net exports relatively well. Inspired by the fact that a large fraction of international trade is in durable goods, we propose a two-country two-sector model in which durable goods are traded across countries. Our model can match the business cycle statistics on the volatility and comovement of the imports and exports relatively well. The model is able to match many dimensions of the data, which suggests that trade in durable goods may be an important element in open-economy macro models.     

Export diversification,composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis

We investigate the export-growth relationship at disaggregate levels – disaggregation both at the country level and at the level of exports – focusing on the diversification and the composition of exports of countries. In a sample of 65 countries for the period 1965–2005 the dynamic panel estimation reveals that both diversification and composition of exports are important determinants of economic growth after controlling for the impacts of other variables like lagged income, investment, and infrastructure. There is a critical level of export concentration beyond which increasing export specialization leads to higher growth. Below this critical level, diversification of exports matters for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Growth of high technology exports also contributes tothe output growth; the relationship becomes stronger for countries that have share of manufacturing exports in their total exports greater than the world average. These results are robust even when the dataset isclassified in four sub-panels based on the export-economic growth relationship.     

Exports,firm size,and firm dynamics

This paper explores the relationships between exports, firm size, and firm dynamics. It is based on a unique longitudinal data set collected at the establishment level, covering some 7000 manufacturing German firms. We present stylized facts on exports and firm size, showing that the probability that a firm is an exporter increases with firm size; however, there are many successful exporters among small firms, and non-exporters among larger firms, too, while most of the exports are from the top size groups of firms. An econometric study shows a picture that is consistent with theoretical considerations: The impact of firm size on exports is positive but decreasing, while human capital intensity, domestic market share, and advanced technology all have a positive influence on the export performance of a firm. Firm growth and export performance are positively related, as is expected from a model of a price-discriminating monopolist.