我国广西地区对越南出口影响因素研究——基于2003-2014年年度数据的实证分析

此课题基于计量经济学理论研究,采用Eviews6.0软件对广西与越南2003年-2014年有关的贸易数据进行实证分析,并建立多元线性回归模型,结果证实越南GDP和人民币对越南盾汇率对广西出口越南总额均有显著的影响,揭示了在长期中人民币对越南盾汇率以及越南国内生产总值的变化均会对广西对越南出口总额产生正向的作用。     

汇率变动对东亚四国出口影响的实证分析

本文考察了1997年东亚金融危机以来汇率变动对东亚四国(韩国、泰国、马来西亚和印度尼西亚)出口的影响。通过实证分析发现,韩国和泰国的汇率变动对其各自的出口基本上没有影响;马来西亚的汇率变动对其出口有较明显的影响,汇率的贬值能够有效的刺激其出口的增长;印度尼西亚的回归结果拟和效果不佳,我们并未发现支持汇率变动对其出口有明显影响的证据?     

国有企业出口影响因素的实证研究

基于供给能力和国家宏观政策两个因素对国有企业出口的影响,扩展传统需求出口模型,对国有企业出口的影响因素进行实证研究,通过协整分析、方差分解和脉冲响应函数等方法考察了各变量之间的长期和短期关系。主要结论如下:1.人民币升值有利于国有企业的出口,而国有企业出口对汇率波动反应不敏感;2.国家实施出口鼓励政策对提高国有企业出口具有重要作用;3.国外需求对国有企业出口具有长期显著的影响,但是短期影响不明显,而且国内收入水平对国有企业出口的短期波动具有显著影响。     

中国进口贸易影响因素的实证分析

本文实证分析了人均GDP、关税税率和人民币汇率对中国进口贸易的影响。结论显示:人均GDP与进口之间是正相关的关系,人均GDP的增加对进口具有明显的促进作用。同时,平均关税税率和外汇汇率与进口之间是负相关的关系。平均关税税率的下调会带来进口的增加,外汇汇率的提高也会削弱一国的进口能力。现阶段,我国可以扩大对短缺的资源能源、技术设备、人才和服务贸易的进口,实现进口的战略性转变,并最终对中国乃至世界的经济发展做出贡献。     

我国纺织品出口影响因素的实证研究

我国纺织品出口20多年来保持着高速增长的态势,对推动国民经济增长发挥了巨大作用。本文通过构建计量经济学模型分析了各种影响中国纺织品出口的主要因素,包括人民币实际有效汇率(R)和我国纺织品主要出口国的总体购买力(我们选取美国GDP为代表)等。     

影响中国对韩国出口的若干宏观因素的实证检验

本文采用协整研究和方差分解等计量经济学方法,就韩国实际收入、相对价格和汇率风险等宏观因素影响中国对韩国出口进行了详细的实证检验。检验结果表明,从长期看,上述因素与中国对韩国出口之间存在着稳定的均衡关系,韩国实际收入和汇率风险的增加会导致中国对韩国出口的增加,而相对价格的上升则会引起中国对韩国出口的下降。     

论汇率变动对出口价格的传递效应——中国、日本、东盟、德国经验数据比较研究

文章比较分析了中国、日本、德国和东盟四个国家(地区)汇率变动对以美元计价的对美出口商品价格指数的传递效应,结果显示中国是唯一在当期存在汇率传递影响的国家,但影响显著为正。短期内德国汇率传递效应最高,中国的传递效应最低。由于中国汇率传递的滞后时间较长,中国累计汇率传递效应值高于日本。在实证结果的基础上,文章认为在短期内无法改变出口商品技术含量和竞争力的情况下,人民币保持稳步的升值步伐比汇率上下波动更有利于企业价格的提高。     

人民币汇率变动对我国纺织品出口贸易影响的实证研究

文章在分析我国纺织品出口贸易基础上,研究人民币升值对我国纺织品出口贸易影响的传导机制。就人民币升值对我国纺织品出口贸易的影响进行实证分析。     

TBT措施对浙江茶叶出口影响因素的实证研究

近年来技术性贸易壁垒已经成为影响浙江茶叶出口的重要因素,日本的肯定列表制度、欧盟的农药残留标准和美国的危害分析及关键控制点体系等都导致了浙江茶叶出口受阻。本文拟构建引力模型,从实证角度研究技术性贸易壁垒各变量与浙江省茶叶出口金额是否存在线性关系,以及各变量对浙江省茶叶出口金额的影响程度,从而有针对性的提出建议以提高浙江茶叶产品国际竞争力。     

广州市出口的影响因素分析

本文在前人研究的基础上,通过理论分析,建立了多元回归模型。并使用时间序列数据分析了一般贸易、三资企业、三来一补和五大行业(包括轻工、工艺、纺织、粮油食品和畜产)出口的决定因素。我们认为,美国经济波动、汇率、外商直接投资、城市建设等因素对广州的出口具有重要影响。并且据此,对广州的出口政策提出了相关建议。     

The currency denomination of exports — A questionnaire study

We report survey results on the currency choice of a random sample of Swedish exporters. We find that for an overwhelming share of exports, the price, invoice and settlement currency is the same. The currency of the customer is the most used, with Swedish kronor and vehicle currencies accounting for approximately equal shares. Currency choice is similar for intra-firm and between-firm trade. We also find that negotiations are important for both the price and for the currency choice. A minority of firms use posted prices for their main exports — the median price adjustment for those firms is once per year.     

汇率风险如何影响中国对日本的出口

本文研究汇率风险对中国与日本的双边出口是否存在长期和短期的影响。使用多元JO-HANSEN协整检验法来检验汇率波动率与出口之间是否存在长期均衡关系。使用GRANGER非因果检验和脉冲响应函数检验短期影响是否存在。研究结果表明从长期看,汇率风险对出口没有影响,但是短期看,汇率风险确实会影响出口。     

The impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and oil exports on real GDP in Syria: Evidence from the ARDL approach

This paper investigates the impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and trade on real GDP and real GDP growth in the Syrian economy over the period of 1990Q1–2010Q4. To this end, we first construct a parallel market exchange rate volatility indicator. Second, we estimate an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model where we include our indicator of volatility among the main determinants of real GDP. Our findings imply that real GDP can be explained by three main variables: parallel market exchange rate, money supply, and oil exports. The long-run equilibrium reveals that parallel market exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on real GDP compared to the positive impact of money supply and oil exports. In contrast, the short-run impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility on real GDP growth is positive and very small counter to the long-run impact. Furthermore, the coefficient of the error correction term of the estimated ARDL model indicates that real GDP deviation from the equilibrium level will be corrected by about 10% after each quarter.     

技术标准战略、技术贸易壁垒与出口竞争力的关系——基于浙江出口美日欧的实证研究

本文在量化技术标准战略和技术贸易壁垒的基础上,利用浙江1995-2007年出口美日欧三国的数据构建了时间序列/截面数据模型,实证研究了浙江技术标准战略以及国外技术贸易壁垒的实施对浙江出口美日欧市场竞争力的影响程度。研究结果显示:浙江技术标准战略、国内技术获取、国际市场购买能力等因素与浙江产品出口美日欧市场的竞争力存在显著正相关关系,同时来自美日欧FDI的负向影响和技术贸易壁垒的正向影响都与传统观点不符。在此基础上,本文对提高浙江出口竞争力提出了具体的政策建议,包括将技术标准战略和外国技术贸易壁垒分别作为提高出口竞争力的内部动力和外部动力,以及高度重视从省外的技术获取等。     

粤、苏、浙经济增长方式转变的定量比较及定性分析

广东、江苏、浙江是中国经济最发达的三个省份,经济增长方式中有很多相同点,同时也各具不同特征。对比分析经济增长方式的转变差异及各自的优、劣势所在．不仅是对于这个三个省份经济增长状态的有力透视,同时也能为其他省市的发展提供可借鉴的实证依据。本文基于独立开发的测度指标体系及分析方法,从经济增长方式转变的四大方面量化横向对比三省的经济增长方式转变的程度。并关联剖析了各自长短之所在。     

The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips

The impermanence of fixed exchange rates has become a stylized fact in international finance. The combination of the “mirage” view that pegs do not really peg with the “fear of floating” view that floats do not really float generates the conclusion that exchange rate regimes are, in practice, unimportant for the behavior of the exchange rate. This is consistent with evidence on the irrelevance of exchange rate regimes for general macroeconomic performance. Recent studies, however, show that the exchange rate regime matters. This can be understood by considering the dynamics of exchange rate regimes. We demonstrate that the “mirage” view is somewhat misleading and incomplete. Pegs frequently break, but many do last. Also, there is a high degree of flipping, that is, the re-formation of pegs that have broken. Thus, a fixed exchange rate today is a good predictor that one will exist in the future. We also investigate the quantitative effect of fixed exchange rates. While the “fear of floating” view suggests little actual difference in fixed and floating rates with respect to exchange rate volatility, we show that fixed exchange rates exhibit considerably greater bilateral exchange rate stability than flexible rates, both today and in the future.     

The Industry Determinants of Exchange Rate Pass‐Through to Chinese Domestic Prices, 1980–2002

Previous research has found industry‐ and time‐varying effects of the exchange rate on domestic producer prices in China for the years 1980–2002. In this study, I examine the determinants of these variations. The variation of pass‐through elasticity across industries is explained by a set of variables that characterize market competitiveness, while the change of the pass‐through elasticity over time is interpreted by infrastructure development and the increasing proportion of non‐state‐owned enterprises in the economy, along with the structural break in years 1993–94. This study sheds light on the current debate on the effect of the urged appreciation of the Chinese Yuan.     

The rate of seat belt use and its related factors among car drivers in Tehran,Iran after imposing new regulations

The incidence of road crash deaths is high in Iran. Seat belts can reduce the risk of death or serious injury. This study aimed to estimate the rate of seat belt use and its related factors for car drivers in Tehran, Iran after proclamation of the 2011 legislation. A roadside observational study was conducted in 2012 and 10,752 cars and taxis commuting in different streets of Tehran were screened in regard to drivers' seat belt wearing. Other variables including gender, age range, type of street, district, time of day and day of week were also collected. The rate of seat belt use was 70.9%, and was significantly higher in females, elders and on freeways and significantly less in afternoon hours, side streets and in taxi drivers. The rate of seat belt use in Tehran (a representative of Iran) is still low despite the implementation of new legislations. More initiatives are needed to increase this rate especially in certain groups and areas.     

人民币国际化的现实基石、主要障碍及推进路径

人民币国际化是人民币在国际范围内发挥货币功能,成为主要的贸易计价结算货币、金融交易货币以及国际储备货币的过程。中国20世纪90年代初的汇率改革开启了人民币国际化的萌芽和发展,现阶段中国快速增长的对外贸易、对外直接投资、区域影响力的提升等为人民币国际化提供了强大的驱动力。但由于对外贸易结构的不合理、人民币国际结算的失衡以及"霸权货币"的抵制,使人民币国际化面临不少困难。我们应完善和推广自由贸易区建设,形成本土离岸人民币金融中心和人民币回流机制;深化金融体制改革,完善金融市场机制,加快国际金融中心建设;协同推进渐进式的资本项目开放与利率市场化、汇率自由化;进一步扩大双边本币互换的范围和规模,以东亚货币合作为基础,推进国际货币合作。