那些人 那些事 那个年代

“一九六零年四月十六号下午三点之前的一分钟你和我在一起,因为你我会记住这一分钟。从现在开始我们就是一分钟的朋友,这是事实,你改变不了,因为已经过去了。”——《阿飞正传》     

Agglomeration,Agriculture, and the Perspective of the Periphery

Abstract

This paper aims at pulling everything related to ‘agriculture’ or the ‘periphery’ a little more into the focus of research. We try to achieve this through surveying the existing theoretical and empirical literature in the field of NEG (New Economic Geography) in order to elaborate its linkages to immobile factors such as land, land-intensive productive activities, agriculture, rural areas, and the periphery. The main features of the broad variety of NEG models are reviewed with a special focus on the theme of agglomeration, which turns out to be vital for rural areas. All of these contributions are then commented on, with the aim of suggesting and discussing some future lines of research in the field.

Agglomération, agriculture, et la perspective de la périphérie

RÉSUMÉ La présente communication s'efforce de placer davantage tout ce qui concerne ‘l'agriculture’ ou la ‘périphérie’ sous l'optique de la recherche. Pour ceci, nous nous efforçons d'examiner de près les ouvrages théoriques et empiriques existants dans le domaine du NEG (New Economic Geography), afin d'en examiner les rapports avec des facteurs immuables comme la terre, les activités de production à utilisation intensive de la terre, l'agriculture, les zones rurales, et la périphérie. On se penche sur les principales caractéristiques du grand nombre de modèles NEG, en mettant tout particulièrement l'accent sur le thème de l'agglomération, qui s'avère jouer un rôle d'importance primordiale pour les zones rurales. On présente ensuite des commentaires sur toutes ces contributions dans le but de proposer certaines filières de recherche futures dans ce domaine, et d'en discuter.

Aglomeración, agricultura y la perspectiva de la periferia

RÉSUMÉ Este trabajo tiene como objetivo poner todo lo relacionado con la ‘agricultura’ o la ‘periferia’ un poco más en el foco de investigación. Intentamos hacerlo a través de una inspección de la bibliografía teórica y empírica existente en el campo NEG (New Economic Geography), con objeto de elaborar sus vínculos con factores inmóviles, tales como el terreno, actividades productivas que requieren terreno, agricultura, áreas rurales y la periferia. Las principales características de la amplia variedad de modelos NEG se revisan con un enfoque especial en el tema de la aglomeración, que resulta tener una importancia vital para las áreas rurales. Seguidamente, todas estas contribuciones se comentan con el propósito de sugerir y discutir líneas futuras de investigación en el campo.

     

The Market, the Firm, and the Economics Profession

The mathematical and statistical complexity of economic research increased remarkably over the past century. While criticisms of the trend abound, the "wisdom of crowds" argument creates a presumption that the profession's acceptance of increasing mathematical sophistication is a net improvement. I provide a contrasting "market failure" argument for the excessive mathematization of economics. Academic research is not a cash-based economy, and this limits economists' ability to contract for assistance with technical research. Consequently, production of mathematical and statistical research must use the firm—the department—instead of the market. This alters the composition of the faculty and ultimately the economics curriculum, and the resulting level of sophistication may be greater than optimal.     

战略投资者、银行及政府的利益互动关系

借助模型从利润角度进一步研究了银行、政府及战略投资者之间在利益上的相互关系.研究发现,三者之间存在着一定的利益矛盾,即银行因价值增值目标而会偏向次要战略股东;政府因"经营能力偏好"而会偏向战略大股东.但是,如果能从法律上进一步明确银行、政府和战略投资者三者的边界,就能实现三者共赢以及最终的利益共存.     

Deficits,expected deficits,financial markets,and the economy

This paper assesses the implications of U.S. budget and current account deficits for financial and economic stability. The primary focus is on the behavior of interest rates in response to deficits, then effects on the economy through the financial system. The paper argues, and shows with empirical evidence, including from a large-scale econometric model, that expected, but not realized, budget deficits affect interest rates. Under certain circumstances, particularly near full employment, sustained budget and current account deficits can lead to financial disarray and a severely constrained economy.     

严冬虽肃杀 毕竟近阳春

发端于美国并迅速向世界蔓延的金融危机,着实令人感到严冬般的寒冷. 金融危机使世界经济受到重创,当然中国也未能幸免.因此,我们对于这场危机的危害性要有足够的认识,千万不可掉以轻心,但也不能悲观失望、束手无策,而是要鼓足勇气,坚定信心,积极应对.     

激浊扬清书写美丽人生--记江苏省徐州市审计局局长葛维琴

她,原本是徐州纺织战线的领头人,曾带领四万多名纺织职工,在砸"三铁"、资产重组、产业结构调整、企业改制等工作中,实现了产值、销售、利税的逐年增长,为徐州市的改革与发展做出了较大贡献.     

Patents, Secrets, and the First-Inventor Defense

We analyze optimal patent design when innovators can rely on secrecy to protect their innovations. Secrecy has no fixed term but does not preclude accidental disclosure nor independent creation by other inventors. We derive the optimal scope of the rights conferred to such second inventors, showing that if the patent life is set optimally, second inventors should be allowed to patent and to exclude first inventors who have relied on secrecy. We then identify conditions under which it is socially desirable to increase patent life as much as is necessary to induce first inventors to patent. The circumstances in which it is preferable that they rely on secrecy seem rather limited .     

Errors, robustness, and the fourth quadrant

The paper presents evidence that econometric techniques based on variance–L² norm–are flawed and do not replicate. The result is un-computability of the role of tail events. The paper proposes a methodology to calibrate decisions to the degree (and computability) of forecast error. It classifies decision payoffs in two types: simple (true/false or binary) and complex (higher moments); and randomness into type-1 (thin tails) and type-2 (true fat tails), and shows the errors for the estimation of small probability payoffs for type 2 randomness. The fourth quadrant is where payoffs are complex with type-2 randomness. We propose solutions to mitigate the effect of the fourth quadrant, based on the nature of complex systems.     

Reason, Bounded Rationality, and the Lebenswelth

A bstract Herbert Stmon introduced the concept of bounded rationality to provide a socially sensitive perspective on decision making But he was not entrrely successful in this endeavor Specifically, he has not abandoned the as sumption of perfect rationality All he has done is to recognize that perons rational manner In this paper, and thus are incapable of acting in perfectly rational manner In this paper, the attempt is made to illustrate how Simon's position can be deepened due to the work of a host of modern writers Decistion making, in ohter words, can be made socially sensitive by understanding facts and reason to originate from the I ebensu'elt     

Facts, Fiction, and the Fourth Estate

A bstract .   This paper examines the reaction of the market to news that the Washington Post had won a Pulitzer Prize for a story that was demonstrably false. The reaction to the stock price of the Post as well as the stock prices of other newspapers is examined using dummy variables for two days, four days, and six days. The results show that while the decline in the Post 's stock price was relatively small, the t-statistics for all of the dummy variables are significant. The paper also examines the McChesney (1987 ) hypothesis that the nature of the newspaper business is such that it is difficult for the residual claimants of the paper to receive the financial gains of important news stories. These rents, he points out, are distributed to others. We look to see whether or not residual claimants of that newspaper can be harmed if that newspaper publishes a false story and receives large amounts of bad publicity for its error.     

Securitization, liquidity, and the Brady plan

Securitization of bank loans is proposed as a solution to the ongoing debt difficulties for emerging market nations. This paper analyzes the effects of the Brady plan for four participating countries. In addition to resolving repayment problems, the plan had a statistically significant effect on prices due to its positive impact on liquidity. Previously, the market for traded bank debt was illiquid and dominated by a few large traders who depressed the price by exerting oligopsony power. By using Perron’s method of discerning breaks, it is found that the introduction of bonds led to structural change in the LDC secondary debt market. These effects are in addition to those of debt resolution and domestic reform.     

Double Movement,Globalization, and the Crisis

This article asks whether the process of financial globalization and its recent crisis can be explained by Karl Polanyi's notion of the double movement and argues, in tune with this notion, that capitalist market relations depend on certain institutional arrangements and yet the development of the market forces deteriorates these institutions' arrangements to such extent that even the “capitalist business itself had to be sheltered from the unrestricted working of the market mechanism” (Polanyi 1944: 193).     

Sociology,history, and the abstract perspective

Our discussion is initiated as a response to the claim that sociologists should become “more historical” in their orientations. The issues are old, but every generation frames its own response. Our response is developed by appeal to intuitive convictions arising out of experience with mathematical models of social phenomena. We make a distinction between historical and sociological processes at a metaphysical level; that is, these two types of processes exemplify different categories of existence. Next we make this point of view concrete by using the idea of a model of social mobility as an example. The discussion then centers on problems related to the search for general laws. We frame a “fallacy of misplaced generality” and against this background discuss how the idea of scope conditions, used in conjunction with formal models, leads to a method for coping with the difficulties inherent in the effort to frame general sociological theories.     

Agglomeration, Dispersion, and the Pioneer Firm

This paper models industry location as a process of successive stages of agglomeration, dispersion, and reagglomeration. External economies lead firms to agglomerate in an industry center. Agglomeration drives up wages in the center, compelling firms to move low-skill activities to low-wage regions. A pioneer firm provides intermediation services between outlying regions and the center. The result is a regional production network: an industry center served by high-volume production sites, where pioneers are active, and low-volume production sites, where they are not. Evidence from the Mexican garment industry supports the theory.     

Learning, communication, and the bullwhip effect

We investigate the effect of learning and communication on the bullwhip effect in supply chains. Using the beer distribution game in a controlled laboratory setting, we test four behavioral hypotheses – bounded rationality, experiential learning, systems learning, and organizational learning – by systematically manipulating training and communication protocols. We find that order variability decreases significantly in a setting in which participants start with hands-on experience, and are then allowed to formulate team strategies collaboratively. This result indicates that while training may improve individuals’ knowledge and understanding of the system, it does not improve supply chain performance unless supply chain partners are allowed to communicate and share this knowledge. Our results indicate that the bullwhip effect is, at least in part, caused by insufficient coordination between supply chain partners.     

Affirmative Action: The Facts, the Myths, and the Future

This article focuses on recent federal court rulings affecting preferential treatment programs mandated by affirmative action policies and programs. The article addresses the greater burden that these decisions now place on organizations to justifying race-based remedial actions, and the standards by which these actions are judged. However, the programs affected by these rulings are only those imposed by federal, state or local governments. This article also discusses the narrow scope of these decisions—what programs they have not changed. As will be demonstrated, a broad range of voluntary private sector programs remain unaffected.