Community Reinvestment and Credit Risk: Evidence from an Affordable-Home-Loan Program

This study examines the performance of home purchase loans originated by a major depository institution in Philadelphia under a flexible lending program between 1988 and 1994. We examine long-term delinquency in relation to neighborhood housing market conditions, borrower credit-history scores and other factors. We find that likelihood of delinquency declines with increasing neighborhood housing market activity. Also, likelihood of delinquency is greater for borrowers with low credit-history scores and those with high ratios of housing expense to income, and when the property is unusually expensive for the neighborhood where it is located.     

The price effects of greening vacant lots: How neighborhood attributes matter

We identify the effects of greening vacant lots on nearby housing prices and show how neighborhood attributes matter to these outcomes. Using data from a longstanding program in Philadelphia, we find that prices for houses within 1,000 feet of a greened vacant lot rise by about 4%, consistent with the literature, with the effect size increasing over time. Using the extensive data available in Philadelphia, we show how these effects vary by the attributes of the neighborhood in which they occur, with larger effects in areas with a high share of vacant land and higher-than-average median household incomes, with peak responses estimated at 19% and 15%, respectively. We demonstrate the importance of sample selection bias adjustment for identification of the effect of vacant lot greening.     

Multifamily Distress: A Case for National Action*

Among other reasons, controlling financial distress in the conventional multifamily sector is important because of the neighborhood destabilizing effects of partially occupied and vacant buildings and the potential lending cutbacks that could be made by financial intermediaries whose loan portfolios may contain substantial numbers of older, failing rental properties. This article develops the case for a heightened national concern for the importance of this inventory to the housing welfare of the nation, particularly lower income and minorities; and then by analyzing the known levels of distress in the FHA insured unsubsidized stock. Failure rates in this portion of the multifamily sector are sufficiently great to suggest that similar problems already plague the conventional market and that such distress should be of major policy interest. The final section propose the development of a multifamily research and demonstration program as a basis for national action.     

Is the FHA Creating Sustainable Homeownership?

We produce first estimates of the sustainability of homeownership for recent Federal Housing Administration (FHA) borrowers. Unfortunately, the FHA does not produce its own statistics on sustainability. Neither does it permit researchers access to its data on internal refinances. This imposes significant barriers to entry for researchers who wish to track FHA borrower performance over time. We carefully construct the required tracking data to overcome this barrier. We forecast that no more than 75% of the 2007–2009 vintages of FHA borrowers will be able to successfully exit the FHA system. Our work raises questions about FHA's role, its accounting and its accountability.     

Local House Price Diffusion

We contribute to the literature on house price diffusion by carrying out our analysis at three levels: CBSA (nationwide), town and census tract (Greater Boston Area). We estimate fixed‐effect models of house price growth on lagged growth (“Persistence”), nearby lagged growth (“Spillovers”) and Fundamentals growth. CBSA‐level Persistence and Spillover Effects are positive and significant. These large ripple/contagion effects likely contributed to the recent national‐level housing downturn. We find evidence of smaller town‐level Persistence and Spillover Effects. Hence, diffusion appears stronger across than within housing markets. Fundamentals and price expectations drive price diffusion, leaving room for bubbles from future price overoptimism.     

The Individual Housing Account

This paper summarizes the available information about the proposed Individual Housing Account (IHA), a tax-exempt savings account designed to facilitate the accumulation of the downpayment on a home for would-be first-time homebuyers. We review both the limited body of U.S. research and data on a similar Canadian program which has been in existence since 1974. We find little evidence to suggest that the IHA would stimulate homeownership or housing construction to any noticeable extent. It would enable potential buyers to save enough for a downpayment more rapidly than they now can, but this would increase homeownership only during the start-up period for the program, not in the long run. We also estimate the foregone tax revenues from the program to be in the neighborhood of $2 to $3 billion annually, once the program has reached maturity.     

Immigration,Capital Flows and Housing Prices

Research on immigration and real estate has found that immigrants lower house prices in immigrant destination neighborhoods. In this article, we find that this latter result is not globally true. Rather, we show that immigrants can raise neighborhood house prices, at least in the case of the wealthy immigrants that we study. We exploit a surprise suspension and subsequent closure of a popular investor immigration program in Canada to use a difference‐in‐differences methodology comparing wealthy immigrant destination census tracts to nondestination tracts. We find that the unexpected suspension of the program had a negative impact on house prices of 1.7–2.6% in the neighborhoods and market segments most favored by the investor immigrants. This leads to an approximate lower bound on the effect of capital inflows of 5%.     

Moderate Rent Controls: A Microeconomic and Public Choice Analysis

Why do people vote for (and against) moderate rent controls? The microeconomic effects of rent controls are complex–they affect both renters and homeowners in many ways, creating a complicated pattern of winners and losers. Renters stand to gain initially from the controlled rents, but competition for scarce housing dissipates these gains. Homeowners are affected by changing housing demand patterns and shifts in property tax burdens. An econometric analysis of the 1980 Seattle, Washington rent control referendum supports the conclusion that voters recognized the microeconomic gains and losses and voted accordingly on this issue. Use of census tract data makes this public choice analysis particularly strong compared to other studies that aggregate voters at the city or county level, possibly missing important intrajurisdiction voting patterns.     

Do ‘dig once’ and permitting policies improve fiber availability?

State and local governments have enacted different types of legislation aimed at improving broadband availability. Two unstudied policies of interest are: (1) “dig-once” policies requiring state-funded construction projects to notify local internet providers about the opportunity to bury conduit for easier wire installation in the future, and (2) permitting policies requiring an expeditious response from local jurisdictions regarding the installation of broadband equipment. We use the example of Iowa, which passed legislation on both of these topics in 2015 and compare trends in fiber broadband availability with that of states who did not pass such legislation. We also consider the potential impact on fixed wireless availability, which largely depends upon a fiber middle mile. We use coarsened exact matching at the census tract level to construct treated and control groups with similar pre-2015 demographic characteristics and broadband availability trends in Iowa and other states. Difference-in-difference regression analysis with the matched samples then assesses the policy impact on fiber and fixed wireless availability post-implementation. The results suggest that Iowa's policies increased fiber broadband availability by 2.4%–6.6% when considering eight model specifications which account for different criteria such as geographic region, other (non-dig-once or permitting) broadband policies, and federal funding received. The policies do not appear to have any effect on fixed wireless availability.     

Human Capital and Black Women's Occupational Mobility

This paper measures the contribution of human capital to the dramatic cimprovements in black women's occupational status and relative earnings since 1940, exemplified by their shift from domestic to clerical work. Logit analysis using census data from 1940-80 and CPS data from 1988 shows that improvements in African American women's human capital explains just one-sixth of their entry into clerical work. Changing labor market structures, particularly during the 1960s, appear far more important.     

An Indirect Test for Differential Treatment of Borrowers in Mortgage Markets

The indirect test implemented in this paper is based on the economics of discrimination which hypothesizes that differential treatment of borrowers, on the basis of age, race, sex, or property location, at any stage of the mortgage transaction, including prescreening, results in segregation of those getting less favorable treatment. Borrowers who perceive that they are receiving less favorable treatment based on age, race, sex, or property location would be segregated into the FHA-in-sured sector. Estimates of an FHA participation equation show no evidence of such segregation by sex, race, or center city property location. Younger borrowers do appear to be differentially concentrated in the FHA programs.     

Black and White Preferences for Neighborhood Racial Composition

The research investigates the existence, nature and magnitude of the preferences of races to voluntarily "self-segregate" into particular areas of urban housing markets. Housing market theory is employed to develop a model showing how housing price variations within a group can provide unambiguous evidence of their preferences for neighborhood racial composition. The model is operationalized in a multiple regression specification wherein the variations in a given racial group's housing prices become a function of the dwelling's attributes and the attributes of the neighborhood (including quality, status, stability and density) as well as housing submarket location and racial composition. The size and statistical significance of the coefficient of the last attribute provides the evidence sought.
The regressions are estimated using two micro-household data bases from St. Louis (1967) and Wooster, Ohio (1975), and results compared. Results show that St. Louis black owners had an aversion to larger black proportions within black submarket neighborhoods, with .7% lower housing prices associated with a 1% higher percentage black. Racial effects for black owners in preponderantly white areas and for black renters in all areas were statistically insignificant. St. Louis whites of both tenures did not demonstrate aversion to neighborhoods with higher percentages of blacks as long as they remained 25% black or less. In areas 25–50% black, however, white prices were 1.5% lower for owners and 3.2% lower for renters per 1% higher proportion black. Such associations continued in majority-black areas, although the magnitudes of the price effect became progressively smaller. Wooster whites showed an aversion to living in neighborhoods having even a few percent of blacks, with prices 11% lower for owners and 7% lower for renters in such areas compared to all-white ones.     

The multidivisional firm and control over the work process

This paper investigates the role of M-form organisation in enabling management in large UK companies to regain control over the work process subsequent to the growth of strong shopfloor trade union organisation in the 1950s and 1960s. A dynamic model is proposed in which the degree of control over the work process shifts between managers and workers. Logit analysis is employed to test two specific propositions: (i) that management in M-forms will seek to relocate bargaining at a level where unions are organisationally weak — the division, (ii) that unions will subsequently respond by creating inter-plant organisations. Both propositions receive empirical support.     

Risk Segmentation of American Homes: Evidence from Denver

This article empirically examines the segmentation of house price risk across 99 ZIP‐code‐delineated neighborhoods in metropolitan Denver. The house price risk in each neighborhood is measured with the temporal variation of quarterly appreciation rates of the neighborhood house price index over the 2002–2007 period. Cross‐sectional regressions of neighborhood house price risk on the median household income and the percentage of population in poverty from the 2000 census data for the same neighborhoods provide strong evidence that the house price risk is significantly higher in low‐income/poor neighborhoods. Subperiod analyses further indicate that the risk segmentation exists in both a booming period (pre 2005:2) and a busting period (post 2005:3). The results indicate that homeownership can be a much riskier investment for low‐income/poor households.     

Is Timing Everything? Race,Homeownership and Net Worth in the Tumultuous 2000s

We use the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to estimate how net worth was affected among low‐ and moderate‐income households who became first‐time homebuyers at different points during the volatile 2000s. We address selection using propensity score matching and estimating difference‐in‐difference models, and use quantile regressions to account for the skew in net worth outcomes. Results highlight the significance of race in the relationship between first‐time home buying and net worth during the decade. Although timing was critical to the short‐term trajectory of net worth for whites, total net worth declines for black first‐time homebuyers regardless of economic climate. The most dramatic differences between black and white new homebuyers is their neighborhood locations, with blacks purchasing in predominantly black neighborhoods with lower housing prices and price appreciation, and lower and declining rates of homeownership.     

An Intertemporal Empirical Analysis of the Renter's Decision to Purchase a Home

In recent years a controversy has developed regarding the responses of different types of families to increases in the relative cost of homeownership. In order to provide evidence on this question, this study employs samples of renters from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to estimate the marginal probability of home purchase and the conditional expectation of the house value to income ratio. These cross-section estimations are performed for two separate time periods: 1968–70 and 1974–76. Among the conclusions reached (by analyzing intertemporal changes in predicted purchase probabilities and value to income ratios) are (1) that first-time homebuyers have not stretched their housing budgets in response to inflationary expectations, and (2) that the probability of purchase by many of these families has declined over time, especially at low income levels.     

Credit History and the FHA–Conventional Choice

Models explaining whether households choose conventional or FHA mortgage financing typically use differential insurance premiums, loan-to-value (LTV) and payment-to-income underwriting standards, and local economic conditions to explain household behavior. Using a large and geographically diverse sample, we expand the standard choice model by including measures of borrower credit history. We find that the ability of a homebuyer to avoid credit problems is an important part of the FHA–conventional choice. In addition, credit scores of FHA borrowers are worse on average than those of conventional borrowers, but as LTV increases credit scores of conventional borrowers deteriorate.     

Reciprocal value propositions in practice: Constraints in digital markets

The value proposition concept, while forming a central foundational premise of service-dominant (S-D) logic, has nevertheless been treated somewhat ambiguously. Recent work in attempting to address this has focused through a S-D logic lens on the reciprocal nature of value propositions. Important to this work has been a focus on communicative interactions and resource integration between network suppliers and customers. Overall, value proposition thinking has not studied in detail their adoption and use in practice. Considering the compelling notion of reciprocity, there have been recent calls for research to consider reciprocal value propositions in practice. The overall aim of this paper, therefore, was to explore how reciprocal value propositions are developed (or not) in practice at the network level. The study was set in the mobile television (TV) sector, which, as an internet-driven sector, is viewed as particularly pertinent. To conduct the study an S-D logic and Industrial Marketing and Purchasing (IMP) Group framework are integrated for the first time. A key finding is that while the reciprocal value proposition concept is theoretically intuitive, it is by no means inevitable in practice. Reciprocal value propositions were found to be simultaneously constrained, and, potentially enabled by these constraints in practice. At an overall level this paper contributes to the ongoing collaborative process, which aims to move S-D logic from a framework to a theory. More specifically, we provide new insights into the development of reciprocal value propositions in practice.     

Assessment Ratios and Property Tax Burdens in Norfolk,Virginia, 1974–75*

To examine the relationship between property taxes and neighborhood housing, this paper employed property tax assessment to sale price ratios (i.e. effective tax rates) of residential properties sold during the period beginning July 1, 1974 through June 30, 1975. The analysis was designed to question whether or not the property tax in Norfolk results in different tax burdens for neighborhoods with different income levels. The results indicate there are substantial variations in effective tax rates within neighborhoods as well as between neighborhoods. More interesting is the fact that the property tax appeared to be progressive, given the measure used. If inequities in administration did not exist, it would be much more progressive. Such relationships indicate the existence of problems with the administration of the property tax in Norfolk. An examination of possible problems is conducted and some recommendations are made for potential corrective measures.