Cuba,the centrally planned cigar,and its rivals

Cuba has a long‐standing reputation for producing premium cigars. Despite the inefficiencies of central planning, Cuba continues to command a dominant global market share in this product outside the United States, whose trade embargo forbids Cuban imports. Cuba's main rivals in premium cigars include the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua and Honduras, which dominate the US market but have a smaller presence elsewhere. All premium cigar exporters face important global demographic and policy changes that will alter the competitive landscape. Public anti‐smoking measures have diminished cigar demand in Europe and other industrialised areas, reinforcing a market growth shift towards emerging markets, especially China. Cuba's strengths in branding, reputation and third‐world ties give it an advantage in developing the high end of these new markets. However, the rigidities of Cuba's economic system make it difficult to increase or adjust premium cigar output and exports in response to new market opportunities. Cost‐efficient competition from its Caribbean rivals allows them to respond to consumer preferences for new cigar blends and lower‐priced brands. The paper concludes by assessing the need for economic reforms and foreign investment in Cuban cigar production that will be necessary for it to maintain or improve its export performance.     

The Cuban market:: Opportunities and barriers

To open our feature on business in Cuba, Kaplowitz presents a brief overview of the dramatic changes in the Cuban market since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989. Until 1988, 85% of Cuban two-way trade was with the former Soviet Union, but by 1993 the COMECON nations accounted for only 20% of Cuban trade. The resulting chaos has created openings for Latin American, European and Canadian businesses to fill the investment void in Cuba. Kaplowitz lays out how recent developments have affected Cuban laws on foreign investment and trade, reviews which foreign companies are barkening to Cuba's call, and what the opportunities might be for U.S. businesses should relations between the two countries improve over the long-term. Her article is the first of seven articles in this feature.     

Solidarity,Entrepreneurship and Hard Times

Abstract

This paper examines the commercial relationship between Cuba and Mexico in the 1990s. Recent investment and trade are analyzed in the context of the diplomatic and commercial history which has developed between the two countries since the Cuban revolution. This study also considers factors that have led to a decrease of Mexican trade and investment in Cuba in the late 1990s.     

Size clustering in the FTSE100 index futures market

Recent literature has begun to explore size clustering in financial markets. If a market is perfectly liquid, traders should be able to trade the exact amount that they desire; however, the presence of size clustering may prevent them from achieving optimal trade sizes. This study is novel in its investigation of size clustering in a futures market. We find that trade sizes cluster in a manner that is similar to the pattern of price clustering found in many financial markets. Importantly, we identify a trade‐off between size resolution and price resolution. We also find that the number of distinct trade sizes increases with trade frequency and with intra‐day volatility, and increases at the end of each calendar quarter. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:432–443, 2010     

Borders Redrawn: Measuring the Statistical Creation of International Trade

In this note, we quantify how much of the increase in the volume of international trade that took place since 1945 is attributed to the reclassification of within‐country trade to international trade owing to changes in national boundaries. We do so by imposing the territorial delimitations corresponding to 1946 to the current trade flow data, thus quantifying the volume of international trade that would not have been labelled international given national boundaries right after the end of World War II. Our results show that the effect of ‘boundary redrawing’ corresponds roughly to 1 per cent of the total volume of international trade. If colonial trade had been statistically considered to be within‐country (within‐empire) trade instead of international trade, the independence of colonies would have raised this effect to approximately 3 per cent of total trade.     

Trade Effects of the European Union's Service Directive: Contrasting ex ante Estimates with Empirical Evidence

One of the top priorities to improve the European Union's growth performance is the creation of a single market for services. The directive on services adopted by the Parliament and the Council by the end of 2006 aims at removing barriers to the free movement of service providers on the internal market. Previous studies quantified ex ante sizable effects of implementing the directive in its original form. This paper is a first attempt to evaluate ex post the trade effects induced by a directive – which excludes the country‐of‐origin principle – by performing a difference‐in‐difference‐(in‐differences) estimator on a sample of EU‐ and non‐EU countries in the period 2004 to 10. We account for non‐tariff trade barriers and the endogeneity of regional trade agreements and find that the service directive adds to a reallocation of business services trade within the EU. Accounting for the trade effect of past deregulations, the EU directive fosters a deeper integration of the new member states into the European service value‐added‐chain and promotes business service exports from third countries towards the EU significantly more than trade of country pairs in the control group. The reorientation of the EU‐15 towards the new members is in turn associated with less intense intra‐EU‐10 businesses, while business trade between EU‐15 members is not significantly affected.     

EU Trade Preferences and Export Diversification

Since at least the 1960s, the European Union (EU) has offered various kinds of non‐reciprocal trade preferences for developing countries. Originally, these trade preferences had at least two policy goals: (i) to increase export volumes for developing countries and thereby boost their export earnings and (ii) to facilitate export diversification. While extensive research has confirmed that the first of these goals is typically met, the second goal seems to have been largely forgotten by researchers as well as in policy circles. The aim of this paper was therefore to analyse the impact of the EU's non‐reciprocal trade preferences for developing countries on export diversification. Our estimation results suggest that some trade preference programmes, such as the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP), lead to increasing ranges of export products. By contrast, preferences offered to Mediterranean countries typically have no significant effects, and African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) preferences actually have negative effects towards the end of our time period, suggesting that ACP countries may respond to preferences by specialising into fewer goods.     

Cuba: A comparison of work values on Castro's Island with those in the United States

In this empirical study of work values differences between Cuba and the United States, the data reveal findings that confirm the expectations of the conventional wisdom on individualism for a comparison between a Latin culture‐communist system and an Anglo culture‐capitalist system. However, the study findings for collectivism defy this conventional wisdom. Given the dearth of empirical research on Cuba for 50‐plus years, this study should serve as a starting point for subsequent investigation of Cuban work values. Additionally, it should provide preliminary information on the Cuban work attitudes and behaviors for U.S. business interested in engaging in commerce in postembargo Cuba. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Does Trade Expansion Still Promote Employment in Korea?

According to the Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson (HOS) model, trade can be an important source of job gains for developing economies, but, conversely, result in job losses for developed economies. Empirical research to date, however, has provided mixed results regarding the direction and size of the employment effects for both developing and developed economies. This paper attempts to evaluate the employment implications of trade for Korea over the 1975–2000 period. Korea merits attention because it has successfully transformed itself from a developing to a semi‐developed economy during this period. Empirical results show that trade has indeed played an important role in enhancing job opportunities in Korea throughout this period, but its role as a job creator has diminished since 1985, suggesting that such a role could soon end, or even reverse.     

Assessing the Enlargement and Deepening of the European Union

This paper estimates a theoretically‐motivated gravity model to examine the effect of the European Union (EU) on trade and whether the order of entry has affected the trade performance of member countries. Additionally, we analyse the impact of the different phases of EU integration on trade. The results show that both original countries and successive enlargements boost intra‐bloc trade. Moreover, the results suggest that the deepening in the integration process has led to more trade creation among members. Finally, only the latter phase of the European integration process (the single currency) has increased trade with non‐members.     

Thai Trade Policy: From Non‐discriminatory Liberalisation to FTAs

FTAs have dominated Thai trade policy recently, reflecting the general trend in east Asia. But they also reflect domestic political changes, especially the decision‐making style of the Thaksin government. Thai FTAs have become very politicised. In particular, the US‐Thai FTA negotiations have run into a storm of domestic protest. The first section of the paper surveys the national trade‐policy framework. It highlights the slowdown of unilateral trade and FDI liberalisation after the Asian crisis, though a descent back into protectionism was successfully resisted. Thailand punches well below its weight in the WTO, and not very forcefully in ASEAN, because political attention and negotiating resources have switched to FTAs. The second section identifies the main actors in Thai trade policy, and briefly describes the trade‐policy decision‐making process as well as recent developments during the Thaksin administration. The following central section deals with Thailand's FTAs. These have been driven by vague foreign‐policy goals, while credible economic strategy has been lacking. The residual commercial logic is narrowly mercantilist and ‘trade‐light’, seeking an exchange of concessions in a narrow range of sectors rather than comprehensive, trade‐creating FTAs. Weak and partial FTAs are the result. The sole exception has been the Thailand‐USA FTA negotiations, as the USA wants a strong, deep‐integration FTA. However, negotiations were suspended in 2006 in the wake of the Thai political crisis. Overall, Thai trade policy post‐Asian crisis is highly unbalanced. It stands on a shaky FTA leg, while the other WTO leg has gone to sleep and the ASEAN arm is limp. Above all, core unilateral liberalisation and related regulatory reform are lacking.     

Do Environmental Regulations Influence Trade Patterns? Testing Old and New Trade Theories

The relationship between trade liberalisation and the environment has been the subject of a growing body of literature in recent years. One particular focus of attention has been whether environmental regulations are influencing patterns of international trade. This paper aims to examine this issue in the context of the Heckscher‐Ohlin‐Vanek (HOV) model of trade, but also in a ‘new’ trade model characterised by monopolistic competition and differentiated products. Our use of the HOV model improves upon a well cited study by Tobey (1990) in many ways, not least by allowing for the possible endogeneity of environmental regulations. We find no significant relationship between such regulations and ‘dirty’ net exports. The ‘new’ trade model explains the presence of both intra‐ and inter‐industry trade and we again allow for the possible endogeneity of regulations. We believe this to be the first study to assess the role of environmental regulations within a ‘new’ trade model, but also the first to allow for the endogeneity of regulations in a cross‐country model of trade. We find environmental regulations to be a statistically significant determinant of the share of inter‐industry trade (net trade) and we find this significance to increase when endogeneity is controlled for.     

Temporary Migration and Bilateral Trade Flows

Empirical evidence on migration and trade has established that permanent migration promotes trade. This finding has been interpreted as proof for the role of migrants in reducing trade‐related transaction costs such as contract enforcement costs or information costs. This paper contributes to improving our understanding of trade‐related transaction costs by analysing empirically whether temporary migrants, like permanent migrants, have an impact on bilateral trade flows. Temporary migrants can be expected to be less integrated in the host country than permanent migrants. At the same time, their knowledge of the home country can, on average, be expected to be more up‐to‐date. Our findings therefore give insights as to the relative importance of knowledge on the host and the home country for trade‐related transaction costs. Using a gravity approach in our empirical analysis, we find that temporary migration has a positive and significant effect on trade and that temporary migration tends to have a stronger and more significant effect on both imports and exports than permanent migration. Interestingly, the role of temporary migrants in reducing trade costs does not appear to be associated with their skills.     

Will They Still Love Us Tomorrow? Canada‐Cuba Business Relations and the End of the US Embargo

This article looks at the business prospects for Canadian firms resulting from a gradual easing of US economic sanctions against Cuba. In the short term, the status quo on the embargo will mean little change for Canadian commercial interests. In the medium term, the removal of certain embargo provisions like the travel ban should provide a fertile ground for trade and investment. In the long term, once the whole embargo is finally lifted, Canadian companies should have the same competitive advantages in Cuba they already enjoy in Latin America, and especially in the Caribbean region. In general, traders will suffer more than investors from fierce US competition, but there should be growing opportunities in many business areas. Aggressive credit policies, innovative ways to acquire a greater knowledge of the Cuban market, and supply‐chain integration are among the key strategies that must be developed to overcome challenges and fully exploit these opportunities. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

China Trade Policy Review: A Political Economy Approach

Chinese trade policy has experienced ‘great reversal’ in the year of 2008. A series of constraining measures taken previously have been loosened eventually. We investigate this situation using a political economy approach. Unlike in democratic countries, where interest groups play a crucial role in trade policy change, in China, given the political reality, leaders’ will and trade partners’ pressure are the determinant factors. We call this top‐down and outside‐in trade policy. Actually the idea of ‘harmonious society’ and ‘scientific development’ emphasised by top leaders in October 2006 paved the road for the following trade policy adjustment: i.e. reducing tax rebate, limiting processing trade, compressing the catalogue for foreign investment, etc. However, with the shock of a global financial tsunami, these measures get coastal areas relying on foreign trade heavily into trouble. The economic downturn in Pearl River Delta even astonished the decision‐making body, calling on a quick reversal in foreign trade policy. If interest groups had been allowed to express their demand formally and adequately from the very start, the cycle of ‘taking up first but giving up last’ in policy design would have not taken place. In other words, the bottom‐up and inside‐out trade policy should be more stable. Although flexibility is necessary in the face of uncertainty, frequent and discretionary trade policy change usually produces effects of ‘pro‐government’ not ‘pro‐market’. This is unfavourable for the transformation in China. The constraining trade policy in mid‐2007 to mid‐2008 has been a part of the government’s desire to seek healthier development. However, with the inside and outside surroundings getting worse, the structural adjustment (long‐run objective) has had to concede to the economic growth (short‐run objective).     

ASYMPTOTIC AGE STRUCTURES AND INTERGENERATIONAL TRADE

While Lotka and Lopez proposed conditions on (exogenous) fertility and mortality laws under which populations with distinct initial age structures exhibit the same asymptotic age structure, this paper re‐examines age‐structure stabilization and convergence by considering a three‐period overlapping generations model where fertility and longevity are determined by human capital accumulation and by intergenerational trade. It is shown that the age structure must converge asymptotically towards a stable structure, and that populations with distinct initial age structures end up with the same long‐run age structure when fertility and mortality laws are converging, which requires converging intergenerational terms of trade.     

Age Structure and Trade Openness: An Empirical Investigation

This study focuses on the relationship between age structure and trade openness. We hypothesise that a higher share of the working‐age population in the total population increases trade openness, because the dependent population tends to spend more than the working‐age population on non‐tradable goods such as education and medical services. We estimate the effects of age structure on trade openness using panel data for 85 countries from 1991 to 2010. The empirical results show that the share of the working‐age population has a positive effect on trade openness. An increase in the share of the working‐age population is considered to be one factor that contributed to an increase in trade openness in the sample period.     

Determinants of Trade Costs and Trade Growth Accounting between India and the European Union during 1995–2010

This study aimed to utilise the micro‐founded measure of trade cost derived by Novy to estimate the relative bilateral trade costs of India with its European Union partners. The advantage of using such a model is that the trade costs can be derived entirely using observable trade data. The results show that Indian tariff equivalent with its major EU trading partners has declined by 20 percentage points between 1995 and 2010, with Malta and Latvia experiencing the greatest decline. The study then decomposes the bilateral trade growth to ascertain whether it is an outcome of increased domestic production or reduction in bilateral and multilateral trade barriers. Novy's model indicates that the decline in relative bilateral trade costs explains the greatest percentage of this trade growth, which is partially offset by decline in multilateral resistance terms that has diverted trade away to other trading partners primarily in South and South‐East Asia and North America.     

世界肉类贸易特征及我国肉类贸易的国际地位

结合贸易统计数据分析世界及我国肉类贸易格局特点,并运用贸易表现指数(TPI)测算了我国在世界肉类贸易中的地位。结果表明我国肉类贸易具有潜在的竞争力,据此提出相应对策。     

Internationalization of services: The case of intra‐multinational enterprise trade

Increased tradability of services, made possible by the information and communications technology (ICT) revolution, has been at the heart of the internationalization of services. Although rapid growth of the services trade between parents of multinational enterprises (MNEs) and their overseas subsidiaries has contributed to the internationalization of services, empirical studies examining the determinants of intra‐MNE trade in services are few. This article, using the ownership, location, and internalization (OLI) framework, attempts to explain intra‐MNE trade in services. The results provide strong support for the OLI perspective, and posit a complementary relationship between manufacturing foreign direct investment and intra‐MNE services trade. The results also suggest the importance of subsidiaries' absorptive capacity and breadth of global connectedness for intra‐MNE trade.