The biological determinants of long-wave behavior in socioeconomic growth and development

In this paper, it is claimed that the effective causality of long-term macroeconomic rhythms, most commonly referred to as long waves or Kondratieff waves, is founded in our biological realm. The observed patterns of regularity in human affairs, manifest as socioeconomic rhythms and recurrent phenomena, are constrained and codetermined by our natural human biological clocks, themselves the result of instructions impressed in the human genome and human cognitive capacity by the physical regularity of fixed cosmic cycles. Considering that a long wave can be conceived as an evolving learning dissipative structure consisting of two successive logistic structural cycles, an innovation cycle and a consolidation cycle, and applying considerations from population dynamics, chaos theory and logistic growth dynamics, a Generational-Learning Model is proposed that permits comprehension of the unfolding and time duration of the phenomenon. The proposed model is based on two kinds of biological constraints that impose the rhythm of collective human behavior — generational and cognitive. The generational consist of biologically based rhythms, namely, the Aggregate Virtual Working Life Tenure and the Aggregate Female Fecundity Interval, both subsets of the normative human life span or human life cycle. The cognitive consist of a limiting learning growth rate, manifest in the alternating sequence of two succeeding learning phases, a new knowledge phase and a consolidation phase. It is proposed that the syncopated beats of succeeding effective generational waves and the dynamics of the learning processes determine the long-wave behavior of socioeconomic growth and development. From the relationship between the differential and the discrete logistic equations, it is demonstrated that the unfolding of each structural cycle of a long wave is controlled by two parameters: the diffusion-learning rate δ and the aggregate effective generation t_G, whose product maintained in the interval 3<δt_G<4 (deterministic chaos) grants the evolution and performance of social systems. Moreover, it is speculated that the triggering mechanism of this long-term swinging behavior may result from the cohesion loss of a given technoeconomic system in consequence of reaching a threshold value of informational entropy production.     

黑河流域生态环境保护和建设

黑河是我国西北地区一个较大的内陆河，该流域由于人口压力，林牧矛盾，水资源粗放利用，出现了严重的土地沙化，盐化，沙尘暴等生态问题，本文提出应执行抢救性水源林生态环境建设，合理配置和科学利用水资源，实施跨流域调水等补水工程，构建生态农业体系的发展方略，实现黑河流域生态良性循环，促进区域经济，社会的可持续发展。     

Population change and economic development in Indonesia

Standard demographic transition theory holds that transition takes place concurrently with socioeconomic development. Oshima has generalized that the pace of demographic transition in Indonesia has been slow and in keeping with standard theory. This article, however, challenges Oshima's contentions and points out that Indonesia has been able to attain a level of demographic transition with a lower level of economic development than that experienced by present-day developed countries during their transitions from high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality. Sections consider the theory of demographic transition, population and economic change in Indonesia, and the likely impact of demographic changes on the future of Indonesia's economy. The more rapid demographic transition experienced in Indonesia may be used to stimulate even faster economic progress in the country.     

人口老龄化对医疗资源配置的影响分析

运用用人口学方法分析人口老龄化等人口因素对医疗资源配置的影响。由人口特点变化将会带来医疗费用的增长,在人口老龄化的趋势下,未来医疗资源将有近50%的比例用于老年人口,这种变化是对有限医疗资源在配置选择上的一个大挑战。分析了人口特点的变化对医疗机构内不同科室的影响,为医疗机构的规划和发展以及人力资源培训等方面的调整提供参考。     

Population and development problems: a critical assessment of conventional wisdom. The case of Zimbabwe

Conventional wisdom, as reflected in reports by the World Bank and the Whitsun Foundation, maintains that control of population growth is the key strategy for stimulating socioeconomic development and ending widespread poverty. The Witsun Foundation has criticized the Government of Zimbabwe for failing to include specific policies for population control in its National Transitional Development Plan. the report further expressed alarm about future availability of land to contain Zimbabwe's growing population. Communal areas are designed for a maximum of 325,000 families yet presently contain 700-800,000 families. This Malthusian, deterministic emphasis on population growth as the source of social ills ignores the broader, complex set of socioeconomic, historical, and political factors that determine material life. Any analysis of population that fails to consider the class structure of society, the type of division of labor, and forms of property and production can produce only meaningless abstractions. For example, consideration of crowding in communal areas must include consideration of inequitable patterns of land ownership in sub-Saharan Africa. Unemployment must be viewed within the context of a capitalist economic structure that relies on an industrial reserve army of labor to ensure acceptance of low wages and labor-intensive conditions. While it is accepted that population growth is creating specific and real problems in Zimbabwe and other African countries, these problems could be ameliorated by land reform and restructuring of the export-oriented colonial economies. Similarly, birth control should not be promoted as the solution to social problems, yet family planning services should be available to raise the status of women. Literacy, agrarian reform, agricultural modernization, and industrialization campaigns free from the dominance of Western capitalism represent the true solutions to Zimbabwe's problems.     

资源约束条件下人口城市化模式研究

从资源供给的角度看,人口城市化模式取决于一个地区实际人口与资源承载人口的关系.而区域资源承载人口取决于生态、经济和自然等多种资源的综合承载人口,且资源承载人口是动态的,是生产力的函数,自然资源承载是基础,经济承载是关键,生态承载是限制.本文探讨了资源承载人口的计算方法和模型,运用该模型对吉林省四平市2003年的承载人口进行了测算,分析了现实人口与承载人口的关系.在此基础上,探讨了人口城市化的模式.旨在达到区域土地供给约束、人居需求扩大和城市经济增长的三项式关系的平衡,使我国人口城市化可持续发展.     

Demographic waves and labor resources

The author examines the causes, nature, and socioeconomic consequences of medium-term fluctuations in the sizes of age groups in the Soviet Union, with particular attention to the impact on the dynamics of the nation's labor resources. Developments since World War I are outlined, and projections through the end of the twentieth century are summarized. Changes over time in the age distribution of a small population in a Kama River community are used as an example.     

基于系统动力学模型的量水发展模式研究——以新疆为例

长期以来新疆受到水资源短缺的困扰,研究水资源能够承载的最佳且可持续的经济社会发展模式成为当前亟待解决的问题。构建新疆15个行政区域能够反映水资源供需状况的系统动力学模型,对经济、人口及城镇化的高速、中速及低速发展模式进行情景模拟分析。结果显示,伊犁哈萨克自治州、塔城地区、阿勒泰地区、博尔塔拉蒙古自治州、巴音郭楞蒙古自治州、克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州等6个行政区域现有水资源量能够支撑未来经济社会的高速发展模式。乌鲁木齐市、吐鲁番市、哈密市、昌吉回族自治州、阿克苏地区、喀什地区、和田地区等7个行政区域的现有水资源量可以支撑未来经济社会的中速发展模式。克拉玛依市和石河子市适合经济、人口和城镇化的低速发展模式,但认为可以通过区内调配的方式实现经济社会的中速发展模式。最后,提出相关政策及建议。     

Health,Social Insurance and Income

Health, a form of human capital, can be defined by longevity and physical wellbeing. Social policy decisions require an understanding of the factors that contribute to the creation of health inequalities. To learn more about socioeconomic variables and health capital, this paper examines the relationship between three key variables: health, social insurance, and income, for the Swedish population. Using a randomized research survey design, data from 3,600 participants of a larger Swedish study, conducted in 2005, was analyzed. A linear model of Three Stage Least Squares was chosen to correct for simultaneous bias in the Health, Social Insurance, and Income (HSI) Model. Findings confirm the importance of socioeconomic, behavioral and environmental factors in explaining health inequalities. The results clearly show men, educated people, nonsmokers, individuals that exercise and youngsters possess higher health status than other people. The dependency on social insurance is mainly caused by poor health; a higher degree of social insurance dependency was offset by income increases due to age and higher professional level.      

Population growth and economic and social development

This article sets forth 3 positions on population growth: 1) rapid population growth is a central development problem that implies lower living standards for the poor; 2) proposals for reducing population growth raise difficult questions about the proper domain of public policy, yet it is acceptable for governments to attempt to influence private decisions about family size; and 3) the experience in many developing countries shows that quick, effective measures can be taken to reduce fertility. Rapid population growth has slowed development because it exacerbates the difficult choice between higher consumption in the present and the investment needed to bring higher consumption in the future. As populations grow, larger investments are needed just to maintain current capital/person. It further threatens the balance between natural resources and people and creates severe economic and social problems in urban areas. Public policy must provide alternative ways for poor families to secure the benefits provided by large family size. That is, governments need to provide tangible evidence that it really is in the best interests of parents to have fewer children. Also required is greater infomation about and access to fertility control. When family planning services have been widespread and affordable, fertility has decline faster than social and economic progress alone would predict. There is a need for immediate action to improve women's status and to make education, family planning, and primary health care more available. Although economic and social progress help to slow population growth, rapid population growth hinders development. Thus, governments must act simultaneously on both fronts. Accumulating evidence on population growth in developing countries shows that is the combination of social development and family planning that reduces fertility.     

生态经济持续发展的人文途径

从人类经济形态发展过程，分析了人类对自然环境的依赖和人类经济行为对自然环境的影响以及由此导致的气候变化、人口膨胀、资源短缺、环境污染、生态破坏等主要生态环境问题，在此基础上提出了实现生态经济持续发展的社会和经济人文手段。     

从人口“包袱”到人力资源的转变——对一个西部人口大省的经验分析

以西部人口大省四川为实证分析对象,在建立人力资源积累与配置经验模型的基础上,针对四川当前人力资源积累和配置中存在的问题,提出相应的政策建议,以期实现从人口“包袱”向人力资源的转变。     

上海市社区居家养老服务发展的背景、需求趋势及其思考

分析了上海市发展居家养老服务的人口、社会经济背景,梳理了上海市居家养老服务试点推广的历程和政策措施,以厘清上海市发展居家养老服务的思路。预测了未来上海市居家养老服务需求的变动趋势。居家养老是在家庭养老基础上发展起来、适应人口老龄化和家庭结构变迁的新型社会化养老模式,它有效整合了政府、社会、家庭的养老资源,满足了老年人个性化的需要。     

BEYOND GDP—NEW APPROACHES TO APPLIED STATISTICS

New social concerns and priorities–beyond the economic growth paradigm–pose a challenge to the established statistical systems. The initial response of developing overall welfare measures and social indicators of the human quality of life had little impact on official statistics. Environment statistics, on the other hand, has become accepted as a new branch of applied statistics, maturing from exclusive pollution monitoring to cover various aspects of natural resources and the man-made environment. Still, a rather artificial separation between ecological monitoring and modeling and anthropocentric environmental statistics and accounting persists. The assessment of complex and interrelated socioeconomic and environmental concerns requires comparable inter-disciplinary information. The provision of such information should be facilitated by a flexible framework approach to statistical coordination and integration.     

人口老龄化对中国劳动力供给的影响

本文描述了我国劳动力供给的总体数量以及变化趋势,并从劳动参与率、城乡结构、人力资本三方面进行考察,探讨人口老龄化对于劳动力供给的影响。我国劳动参与率还存在较大增长空间,将会是未来劳动力供给的重要增长点;农村剩余劳动力存量仍看似充足,但其老龄化情况较严重,难以维持当前农民工向城市转移的速度;另外我国年轻劳动力的教育程度和人力资本已有显著提升。因此虽然人口老龄化已经对我国劳动力供给产生了一定负面影响,但由于人口和劳动力的变化是一个长期过程,并不会给经济发展带来突发的、灾难性的冲击。     

Resource integration of regional economic development in northwest China

Northwestern area is the most arid and underdeveloped area in China. Lots of researches have been doneto find the approaches to alleviate poverty. But there are some problems, for example, how to invest, how to use capital,and why the utilization rate is ambiguous. Water, capital and human resources are analyzed in this paper to be comparedwith their Utilization rates. As a result, according to the dependences of economic growth on those resources, a newapproach has been selected to organize the integration ways among these resources for economic development innorthwestern China. The efficient ways to develop northwestern China are： firstly, use the wanting resources mosteffectively to make an efficient integration model of multiple resources. For example, enhance the utilization rate of waterto raise the value of other resources. Secondly, invest more in basic factors for economic development to upgrade thecompetitiveness in the western China. For example, invest more in primary education and sustainable development ofbasic natural resources in order to have more power for sustainable development.     

长江流域资源环境与可持续发展研究

把可持续发展建立在资源可持续利用和生态环境良好的基础上,已成为世人的共识。文章概述了长江流域的资源环境状况,揭示了长江流域面临的严重资源环境问题：人地矛盾日益尖锐;水土流失严重;湿地萎缩加剧;自然灾害频繁;水污染加重。提出了促进可持续发展的资源环境对策,包括：贯彻计划生育基本国策,减缓人口对环境的压力;植树造林,构筑“绿色屏障”;调整产业结构和布局,建立资源节约型国民经济体系;发展资源产业,增强产业的基础地位;建立综合协调的资源环境管理体系;提高公众环境意识,树立生态道德观。     

高校教师人力资源对社会发展的战略意义

高校教师人力资源在发挥人力资源本身作用的同时,不断地再造与重塑社会人力资源。作为重要的生产要素,在为社会经济发展做出贡献的同时,重要的是她能够也应该引领社会的先进文化、选择与传承优秀的人类文明,从而区别于其他生产要素而为社会和谐与科学发展具有重要的战略意义。     

Estimating a health production function for the US: some new evidence

This study reports some new evidence on the impact of medical care, socioeconomic, lifestyle and environmental factors on the health status of the population of the USA. The results show that additional medical care utilization is relatively ineffective in lowering mortality and increasing life expectancy. The most important factors that influence death rates are related to socioeconomic status and lifestyle. The results suggest that health care policy which focuses primarily on the provision of medical care services and ignores larger economic and social considerations may do little to benefit the nation's health.     

郑州市人口及其对经济发展的影响分析

人口与区域社会经济发展密切相关.郑州市人口发展为社会提供了丰富的劳动力资源,人口素质不断提高为经济发展提供了高素质的人才.但是,人口数量的不断膨胀,人口素质偏低,人口结构不稳定,使郑州人口与经济发展要求不协调,在一定程度上影响和制约了郑州市经济、资源、环境的协调发展和可持续发展.