Demographics, dividend clienteles and the dividend premium

The catering theory of dividends proposed that corporate dividend policy is driven by prevailing investor demand for dividend payers, and that managers cater to investors by paying dividends when the dividend premium is high. While earlier research found that the dividend premium is not driven by traditional clienteles derived from market imperfections such as taxes, transaction costs, or institutional investment constraints, we find empirical evidence that demographic clienteles are an important source of the time-varying demand for dividend payers. In particular, we find that, as consistent with the behavioural life-cycle theory and the marginal opinion theory of stock price, the dividend premium is positively driven by demographic clientele variation represented by changes in the proportion of the older population. Our results are robust when controlled for the factors of investor sentiment, signalling, agency costs, tax clienteles, time trend, business cycle fluctuations and varying sample periods.     

Not paying dividends? A decomposition of the decline in dividend payers

Current payout policy literature contends that firms’ propensity to pay dividends declined between 1978 and 1998. Using the Oaxaca decomposition methodology, we measure changes in the propensity to pay dividends between 1978 and 1998. Results suggest that firms today have only a slightly lower propensity to pay dividends. Furthermore, when we also categorize firms that use stock repurchases as dividend payers, we find that 100% of the decline in the proportion of dividend payers can be explained by changes in firm characteristics only. The difference is that firms that firms are now repurchasing stock instead of paying dividends.     

Does having a semimandatory dividend policy enhance investor confidence? Research on dividend-financing behavior

Enhancing investor confidence is crucial for sustainable and stable development of the capital market. Does having a semimandatory policy to pay dividends help to enhance investor confidence? What is the origin of the cash dividend paid by companies to meet regulatory requirements so as to enhance investor confidence? Based on these considerations, this paper uses the exogenous policy shock that in 2006 the China Securities Regulatory Commission required listed companies to pay accumulated dividends of no less than 20 % of average annual distributable profits and adopts a panel difference-in-difference estimation strategy to explore whether this new policy has significantly enhanced investor confidence. In addition, it explores the source of external financing for cash dividends by examining dividend-financing behavior. The results show that the semimandatory dividend policy has led to new dividend-financing behavior by listed companies. The cash dividend paid by companies comes mainly from external financing, especially a net increase in debt. The paper expands the traditional theory of dividend payment and provides a reference point for decision-making by shareholders, company managers, and regulatory agencies.     

Stock-market reaction to growth-induced dividend cuts: Are investors myopic?

This paper focuses on shareholder reaction to growth-motivated dividend cuts and omissions. The results reveal that although growth announcements mitigate the capital loss induced by dividend decreases, the stockmarket response to growth-oriented dividend cuts is still strongly negative. However, the capital loss suffered by investors is significantly reduced when dividend cuts are accompanied with stock dividends. Two potential explanations of the results are explored: (1) shareholders find the immediate benefits of stock dividends more attractive than the potentially higher future rewards of investment opportunities; and (2) shareholders overreact to dividend announcements. Analysis of the performance of the firms for two years following the dividend cut indicates weak support for the overreaction hypothesis.     

The contractual and value relevance of reported earnings in a dividend-focused environment

This study investigates the relevance of reported earnings in the context of an institutional environment, i.e., Switzerland, in which investors focus on dividends. In conjunction with a dividend focus, the financial reporting environment faced by Swiss firms provides their managers with more accounting discretion than managers of Anglo-Saxon firms typically have. From a contractual perspective, dividendbased earnings management is expected since Swiss corporate law explicitly states that dividends, which must be voted on by stockholders, are to be based upon a firm's reported earnings. From a value perspective, thin trading conditions and a long-term investment horizon are expected to increase the importance of dividend payments and to influence the informativeness of reported earnings. Results indicate that Swiss managers do engage in dividend-based earnings management, that earnings quality signals are used by managers to voluntarily constrain their accounting choices and that the value relevance of earnings is conditional upon dividend payments.     

Peer effect on dividends and return comovement

This study investigates the stock return comovement of dividend-paying and nonpaying firms induced by peer effects of dividend payout policies. We consider peer effect as a channel that links a firm’s dividend initiation to firms that did not change dividend status. Dividend initiation attracts investors to the industry and puts pressure on peer firms to change their dividend policy, which leads to return comovement between nonpaying peers and paying firms. Using matched peer firms that resemble dividend initiators, we find that return comovement can be induced through an indirect channel without changes in style or category. Excess return comovement for firms without dividends is observed with dividend payers of the market and their industries through peer influence.     

Is corporate payout taxation a long run phenomenon? Evidence from international data

This paper examines whether dividend and capital gains taxation influences corporate payout policy using the country level data of 21 countries in panel versions of time series models. We find that dividend relative to capital gains tax penalty is cointegrated with corporate payouts (dividends and share repurchases) i.e. corporate payout taxation may be a long run phenomenon. Further, the cointegrating vector estimates are largely consistent with the traditional view of dividend taxation whereby the tax penalty discourages dividends, while the estimates give limited support to the premise that firms substitute dividends for share repurchases in response to an increase in dividend tax penalty. Long run causality also operates between the tax penalty and payouts in the error correction models. Additionally, dividend tax appears to be more influential than capital gains tax on dividend payout decisions. Lastly, taxation affects dividends more significantly in countries with high investor protection.     

The 1986 Tax Reform Act and ex-dividend day price and volume patterns: Evidence from organized exchanges and the OTC market

By effectively removing the differential taxation of dividends and capital gains, the 1986 Tax Reform Act provides a unique opportunity to re-examine the “tax induced clientele” explanation of ex-dividend day price behavior. The analysis indicates an increased preference for dividends and provides evidence of significant abnormal volume during the ex-dividend period, consistent with dividend induced trading activity. In addition, the level of dividend preference is found to be far greater on the organized exchanges than in OTC trading.     

现金股利政策信号传递研究

现金股利的逐步攀升与稳定是2000年以来资本市场出现的新情况,上市公司的这一行为标示了股利政策的变化。本文的研究表明:股利政策由股票股利逐渐演变为现金股利是制度演进的结果,在不成熟的资本市场条件下,由于投资者不具有现金股利对公司价值的较强信念,现金股利不能够成为传递价值信息的信号,当资本市场参与各方在发展过程中的行动,逐渐使得市场对于股利政策所体现出来的公司价值具有较强的信念时,现金股利就可以成为公司有效表达私人信息的工具。     

The discourse of inflation accounting

The value of a share is given by the dividend discount model as a simple function of future dividends; but the actual determination of the share price is rarely based upon the direct estimation of these future dividends. A ranking of the valuation models used by analysts and fund managers shows a preference for ‘unsophisticated’ valuation using, for example, the dividend yield rather than the dividend discount model. This finding is shown to depend upon the practical difficulty of using currently-available information to forecast future cash flows. This difficulty limits the quantitative basis of valuations to short forecast horizons, while the subjective, qualitative estimation of terminal value assumes great importance. Crucially, both analysts and fund managers use their own assessment of management quality to underpin the estimation of terminal value, on the basis that superior quality causes outperformance and that, whereas management quality can be assessed now, future performance itself is unobservable. Linked with this and with information asymmetry, valuation is a dynamic, company-specific process, focused on personal communication with management and embodying ongoing signalling and implicit contracting, using both dividends and other variables. This method of valuation causes formal valuation models such as the dividend yield to play only a limited role. They offer a benchmark of relative price differences, which serves as a basis from which to conduct subjective, company-specific analysis and to make investment decisions; but valuation models are not used exclusively, in themselves, to value shares.     

The effect of takeover defenses on the dividend decision

Many firms have sought protection from hostile takeovers by passing defensive amendments to their corporate charter and/or lobbying their state legislatures for statutory protection. Agency theory would suggest that any such takeover defenses alter the principal-agent relationship. A consequence of such a change may be a change in corporate decision making. The objective of this research is to test the effect that passage of antitakeover amendments has on a firm's dividend policy. We use six alternate measures of dividend activity: total dividends paid, dividends per share and dividends relative to earnings, cash flow, market value, and book value. Our results indicate that firms that adopt antitakeover amendments, when compared to an industry control sample, tend to have a slower rate of growth in dividend payout as measured by the proxy variables. These results suggest that entrenchment is not a likely outcome of such amendments.     

中国上市公司送转行为动因研究——基于高送转样本的检验

关于中国上市公司大量进行股票送转的动机,学术界尚存争论。本文将不同送转理论纳入同一个计量模型,利用2006～2010年进行高送转公司的样本对不同送转理论进行了验证,为解决关于股票送转动机的争论提供了经验证据。实证结果支持了"最适价格假说"与"股本扩张假说",而拒绝"信号传递假说"、"价格幻觉假说"与"股利迎合假说"。此外,本文模型对高送转公司的预测准确度达90%,基于模型预测建立高送转公司的投资组合可以获取较稳定的超额收益。     

强制分红政策与公司代理成本:博弈模型与DID检验

不同于公司自觉的现金分红行为，强制分红政策在矫正公司分红行为的同时，会激起高管的消极抵制，所以它能否有效降低公司代理成本，尚难预料。为此，建立了一个混合策略完全信息静态博弈，说明了强制分红政策影响代理成本的作用机制，并将2011年出台的强制分红政策视为一个准自然实验，实证检验强制分红政策能否降低上市公司的代理成本。实证研究发现，强制分红政策能够显著抑制企业的代理成本。异质性检验结果表明，相对于中小板和微股利的上市公司而言，强制分红政策可以更加显著地降低那些主板上市公司和正常发放股利的公司的代理成本。研究结果不仅支持了股利代理成本理论，而且为进一步完善公司股利政策和保护中小股东权益提供了经验证据。     

投资者情绪、股利政策与公司价值研究

基于行为金融学背景对股利政策的信号传递作用进行的研究发现,在不同的投资者情绪条件下,股利政策信号传递的效应存在差异。在股市上涨时期,不同股利政策对投资者的投资决策的影响几乎没有显著差异;在股市下跌时期,现金股利成为投资者获得收益的主要来源,因此发放现金股利的公司受到市场追捧。因此,上市公司股利政策制定不仅要考虑自身情况,还需要考虑市场情绪。     

Influence of family-centered goals on dividend policy in family firms: A socioemotional wealth approach

Socioemotional wealth (SEW) preservation is likely to be a key determinant for family firms when shaping their dividend policy. This paper analyzes how family-centered goals reflected by SEW can influence dividend policy in private family firms and explores how family involvement in management, generational stage, and firm hazard might moderate these relationships. Results indicate a negative association between SEW preservation and both the likelihood of giving dividends and the amount of dividend paid. This negative relationship is stronger when the CEO is a family member, in early generational stages and when the firm faces greater performance hazard. The amount of dividend paid is also lower when there are family members in other top management positions apart from the CEO. The evidence provided thus suggests that the existing heterogeneity in dividend policy in privately held family firms is strongly driven by differences in SEW priorities.

     

Information content of unexpected dividends under a semi-mandatory dividend policy: An empirical study of China

We examine the information content of unexpected dividend changes under China’s unique semi-mandatory dividend policy, which requires firms to pay a minimum amount of cash dividends before they can undertake seasoned equity offerings (SEO). The cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) are significantly positive in response to unexpected dividend increase for non-SEO firms, but they are not significantly different from zero for SEO firms. For non-SEO firms, there is a significant positive relation between future earnings and unexpected dividend increases, but the relation is not significant for SEO firms. However, when considering additional refinancing costs for SEO firms caused by the mandatory dividend policy, higher dividend payments are associated with lower future earnings. Overall, our findings are consistent with both the dividend signaling theory and the negative effects of SEOs on a firm’s value.     

LIFO adoption and dividend payout

Adoption of the LIFO inventory costing method tends to decrease reported earnings but increases cash flows to adopting firms. This study examines the change in dividend payout ratios (cash dividends divided by earnings) accompanying LIFO adoption. The question addressed is whether adopting firms likely paid out incremental cash flows or retained them to the benefit of management. The evidence suggests that managers and directors adjusted payout ratios to partially offset the negative earnings effect of LIFO. The adjustments made were not sufficient in magnitude to achieve a neutral LIFO effect on dividend payout, and the net result was the retention of incremental cash flows generated by LIFO adoption.     

Ex-dividend day abnormal returns for special dividends

Past research shows that the difference between dividend amount and ex-dividend day price drop reflects the transaction costs and the differential in the tax rates on dividends and capital gains. Moreover, it is also documented that the higher the dividend yield, the lower is the ex-dividend day return. This paper focuses on large special dividends and tests the two competing hypothesis, tax hypothesis and short term trading hypothesis. Our focus on large special dividends is motivated by the following three considerations. First, special dividends have experienced a surge in recent years. Second, special dividends are important for dividend capture by institutions, corporations and arbitragers. Third, using a sample of large special dividends allows us to reduce the market microstructure effects and focus more directly on the two competing hypotheses. Based on a sample of large special dividends, we find that price drop on ex-dividend day is significantly less than the dividend amount. Furthermore, we show that ex-dividend day returns are positive and hence, are not fully arbitraged away. Our tests indicate that tax hypothesis explains some portion of ex-dividend day abnormal returns even for large special dividends, whereas the support for the short-term trading hypothesis is weak.     

Cross-listing in the U.S. and domestic investor protection

Using the change in ordinary dividend payout as a proxy for improved governance, we show that cross-listing in the U.S. is associated with enhanced protection for the minority ordinary shareholders of exchange-listed non-U.S. firms. These firms substitute dividends for enhanced governance. We find no such effect for Rule 144a Portal firms. Interestingly, we document evidence inconsistent with the legal bonding hypothesis for Level 1 OTC firms. We believe that their ability to pay lower dividends post-listing is primarily due to their ability to credibly commit to fair treatment of their minority investors, given their record for equitable treatment of their ordinary shareholders. They achieve this reputation by consistently paying out a sizable proportion of their earnings as dividends. In addition, we find that the firm-level governance of Level 1 OTC firms, as measured by the number of closely held shares improves in the post-listing period. We find no such effect for SEC Rule 144a traded firms. Our results have also important implications for the agency models of dividends.     

On the financial characteristics of firms that initiated new dividends during a period of economic recession and financial market turmoil

The initiation of new dividends and increases in dividend payout ratios occur infrequently because once initiated it would be expected by most investors that the new dividends will be maintained. Dividend announcements are said to have informational content concerning the value of the firm, and financial signaling theory would lead investors to conclude that the initiation of new dividends is an indication that the firm expects increased cash flows in the future. Thus, unless the initiation is identified beforehand as a special dividend resulting from unanticipated cash inflows, it is difficult to reverse the action without having an adverse effect on the value of the firm. In periods of economic recession and financial turmoil most firms conserve cash and the initiation of new dividends or increases in the dividend payout ratio in such periods are extraordinary and noteworthy. The purpose of this study is to provide a financial analysis of those firms described by Value Line as having initiated or increased the dividend payout ratio in the most recent period of economic recession and financial market turmoil. Specifically, the analysis will test for significant differences in the financial profiles of those firms that initiated new dividends in such a period, and companies selected at random but from the same industries. A unique financial profile is established for the dividend initiating firms, and it is suggested that the profile may be used to identify firms that will initiate new dividends in future periods of economic downturn. As in previous studies of this nature Multiple Discriminant Analysis is used.