我国企业境外投资风险因素及评估方法研究综述

经济全球化对我国企业强化境外投资提出了新的要求,在政府的大力支持下,我国企业境外投资取得了显著的成效。通过国内外文献调研,本文系统分析了企业开展境外投资相关的概念,建立了境外财务风险的定义及内 涵,综述了我国企业开展境外投资的风险和评估方法,为境外投资财务风险的防范提供理论基础。     

企业境外投资的风险管理分析

本文指出中国企业境外投资呈现出建厂不断增加、投资地域较为集中等特点,投资地域的集中化给我国企业带来诸多风险,包括政治风险、经济风险、法制风险、文化风险,建议中国企业建立风险管理委员会,采取不同的措施应对政治、经济、法制、文化等风险.     

企业境外项目财务风险管理研究

随着世界经济全球化的发展和我国对外开放程度的不断提高,我国企业境外项目数量越来越多.相比国内项目来说,境外项目受到更多因素的影响,财务风险更大,这为境外项目的稳定运行埋下了安全隐患.因此,在我国企业境外投资过程中,如何提升项目财务风险管理水平,保障财务安全,成为众多学者关注的重要课题.文章首先对我国企业境外投资情况进行了概述,然后重点探讨了企业境外项目面临的主要财务风险,并将其归纳为四个方面:管理方式和管理制度带来的财务风险、境外项目筹资风险、汇率风险、税务风险和资产风险.最后,从五个方面探讨了企业境外项目财务风险相应的防范策略.     

亟须构建中央企业境外投资风险评价体系

一、境外投资与境内投资之间的风险存在较大差异 （一）境外投资较境内投资风险更大 由于境外投资东道国与我国在政治、社会、文化、法律等方面均有着较大差异，因此境外投资的风险源更多，面临的风险也更加错综复杂，可预见性更低，风险爆发的可能性相对也越大。     

基于风险控制导向的境外业务审计研究文献综述

随着中国企业对外直接投资规模的持续扩大以及区域的不断扩张,有关中国企业的对外直接投资的研究得到了进一步深入,本文通过对境外投资风险的影响因素、 风险控制以及境外业务审计三方面的已有研究文献进行分类梳理并对其进行述评.     

我国海外投资风险剖析

改革开放以来,我国海外直接投资发展迅速。自1979至1999年底,经外经贸部批准或备案的境外企业达5045家,中方投资金额达57.2亿美元。目前,我国境外投资已遍布世界155个国家和地区。在肯定成绩的同时,我们更应清醒地看到面临着的各种潜在的风险。其中,制度风险是制约我国海外投资事业健康发展的深层次的核心问题。     

中国跨国企业如何防范东道国政治风险

近年来,我国企业海外投资数量正在急剧增加。据我国商务部统计,2002年至2010年,我国对外直接投资年均增速达52%。2010年我国企业共对全球129个国家和地区进行了直接投资,实现非金融类对外直接投资590亿美元,同比增长36.3%。截止2010底,中国累计非金融类对外直接投资额达到2588亿美元。然而,尽管我国企业正加速对外直接投资,但是中国跨国企业缺乏对东道国政治风险的防范意识与措施。如果不是利比亚内战爆发导致中资企业在利比亚遭受巨大的经济损失,中国企业可能仍然未知东道国政治风险会对海外投资造成巨大的冲击与经济损失。因此,在中国企业正加速＂走出去＂的背景下,如何防范东道国政治风险有着极其重要的现实意义。     

“一带一路”建设下地矿企业境外投资法律风险防范

在建设"一带一路"中,矿业产能的国际合作是关键组成部分,在这样的背景下,我国地矿企业有了更好的境外投资机会,同时也面临更多挑战和风险,其中最大的风险是法律问题。文章主要分析新形势下我国地矿企业境外投资所要防范的法律风险,阐述风险防范的必要性,介绍地矿企业境外投资遭遇的法律风险案例,并从政府与企业两个方面提出构建法律保障体系、加强多边合作机制、充分开展前期调研工作、推进合规管理等防范措施。     

我国钢铁企业境外铁矿石资源直接投资的风险防范

随着我国钢铁工业的快速发展,我国面临铁矿石资源短缺的问题,这种严峻形式迫切要求我国钢铁集团转变当前利用国外铁矿的方式,从以进口为主转变为以直接到境外投资开矿为主,参与国外铁矿资源的勘探和开发,建立一批国外铁矿生产供应基地。本文介绍了我国铁矿石资源开发利用状况,从国内经济发展及资源角度揭示了我国钢铁企业海外铁矿石直接投资的必要性。然后在对我国已有的境外铁矿资源投资实践及其存在风险进行分析的基础上,对铁矿石投资风险提出相应对策。     

集团企业境外子公司财务风险及管控对策分析

由于境外子公司所在国政治、经济、法律环境的特殊性和复杂性,使得境外企业面临更大的财务风险,如何从集团企业的角度对境外子公司的财务风险进行有效管控和规避,从而减少不确定性因素带来的风险损失,以实现集团企业境外战略的实施和落地,成为企业亟待解决的问题。根据我国集团企业境外子公司业务发展情况和特点,重点对外汇风险、税务风险、融资风险、资金风险和外账风险进行识别,并提出相应的风险控制策略,旨在为境外企业财务风险的管控提供有益参考。     

The impact of political risk on FDI exit decisions

Do political risks drive exit decisions by multinational companies (MNC)? What mechanisms can protect a multinational subsidiary in a host country that is characterized by weak institutions and high political risks? Using multinational plant-level data for Russia in the period 2000-2016 and applying the Cox proportional hazard model, we find significant effects from elevated host-country political risk when we compare the year of entry to the year of exit. MNCs are particularly sensitive to problems associated with law, order, and social conditions in Russia and the presence of the military in politics in the home country. Institutional similarity does not reduce the hazard of exits, and MNCs from high-risk countries exit less when home-country risk increases. Subsidiaries from countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia are less likely to exit, though sanctions interact with host-country risks, making them more severe. Being large and being part of a greenfield project help subsidiaries to build resistance against host-country political risks. These findings provide empirical evidence that support our conclusions regarding foreign direct investment volatility in countries with high risk.     

Risk assessment of China's foreign direct investment in "One Belt,One Road": Taking the green finance as a research perspective

With the active promotion of the "the Belt and Road" initiative, overseas investment has shown a market prospect of explosive growth in various countries and has received continuous attention from scholars at home and abroad. With the proposal of the goal of carbon neutrality in countries and regions along the Belt and Road, green investment has become a new driving force for foreign investment. Based on the theory of quality function deployment (QFD) and the G1 entropy method in fuzzy mathematics, this paper constructs 10 risk indicators of China's foreign investment from the perspective of green from the four levels of economic risk, environmental risk, social and cultural risk and political risk, and studies 61 countries along the line. The results show that the four types of risks have an important impact on China's foreign investment. Therefore, Chinese government and enterprises should strengthen the comprehensive evaluation of the overall situation of the host country when investing. Our research has not only achieved theoretical improvement and practical innovation, but also put forward targeted suggestions for China to strengthen risk prevention and control of investment in countries along the "Belt and Road" from the perspective of green finance.     

我国利用外商直接投资中的风险与防范

自从改革开放以来,利用外资是我国经济发展的主要动力之一。外商直接投资的比重,尤其是进入90年代以后,呈现逐年上升趋势。随着我国的外商直接投资的增多,各种利弊也逐渐的显示出来,本文将从风险的概念入手,进而引出外商直接投资的风险的定义。并指出外商直接投资的特点,以及其产生风险的根源,进而引申到我国的经济现实,提出对我国的外商直接投资风险的分析。     

Political events and the foreign direct investment decision: An empirical examination

This study investigates the impact of political events on US manufacturing direct investment in Latin America. The relationship between foreign direct investment and political events (and economic factors) is examined through regression analysis of pooled time-series (21 years) and cross-sectional (8 countries) data. In contrast to previous studies using an econometric approach, this study finds that political events do affect direct investment decisions. Specifically, both intra-nation and inter-nation conflict and co-operation have an impact on US direct investment decisions concerning Latin American countries. In addition, the host country's market size and market growth affect these decisions by US multinational firms.     

Capital Budgeting and Political Risk: Empirical Evidence

This paper surveys and investigates Swedish firms' use of capital budgeting techniques for foreign direct investments. We document that the use of the theoretically correct net present value method decreases with the political risk in the host country, and that the use of the Payback method increases with the political risk. We conclude that in the presence of capital market imperfections, unsystematic and country-specific political risks are important. Because these risks are difficult to estimate (rendering high deliberation costs) managers are inclined to use simple rules of thumb for their capital budgeting decisions. Our results can partly explain why surveys find that alternative methods such as the Payback method are frequently used despite their theoretical drawbacks.     

利用外国直接投资的风险与防范

文章分析了外国直接投资的引入在促进我国经济发展的同时,也带来了行业垄断、技术依赖等风险,这些风险的存在增加了我国经济运行的不稳定性,并在对这些风险进行分析的基础上提出了相应的防范措施。     

The investment decision of a Multinational Firm under uncertain quantity restrictions

In this paper we analyze the allocative investment decisions of a Multinational Firm (MNF) when it faces uncertain quantity restrictions such as a voluntary export restraint or a quota imposed by the host government. The model with uncertain quantity restrictions is analyzed further by introducing additional uncertainties such as a foreign tax rate, transfer prices, foreign exchange rates and foreign demand. The MNF invests more in the host country due to uncertain quantity restrictions. The risk averse MNF invests more in the host country despite its uncertain tax rate if the transfer price is less than the expected marginal revenue loss due to the uncertain quantity restriction. The uncertain transfer price leads the MNF to invest more in the foreign country if the tax rates are dissimilar between the two countries. Foreign demand uncertainty and foreign exchange rates uncertainty have the same effects on capital allocation between the host country and home country. In particular, we derive the condition under which the direction of investment is unambiguous.     

Quantification of political risk with multiple dependent sources

In this paper, we develop a model using a conditional Poisson process for measuring the effect of a countable number of mutually dependant political risks on the outcome of foreign direct investment. We also apply a Bayesian updating process that makes it possible to re-estimate the model's parameters as new information becomes available. We then show how the model can be operationalized and provide a comparative example related to foreign direct investment. (JEL G31, D81, F21).     

Inter-jurisdiction subsidy competition for a new production plant: What is the central government optimal policy?

This paper models inter-jurisdiction competition for foreign direct investment and optimal government policy intervention to protect the national interest. The inter-jurisdiction competition for a multinational has the potential of favouring the multinational and of becoming detrimental for the host country. The central government wants to limit such competition but it cannot tax-discriminate between different types of multinationals. We find that the central government would use tax policy to create asymmetries even when the underlying structure is symmetrical. This offers a novel explanation for the creation of ‘Special Economic Zones’ in many countries, which are well known to be aimed at the attraction of foreign direct investment.     

BOT项目前期的风险分析

BOT是英文Build-Operate-Transfer的缩写,译意为"建设—经营—移交",是民间资本参与国家基础设施建设的一种形式,尽管以BOT方式投资于东道国的基础设施建设对于项目参与各方在不同程度上是一项有利可图的商业经营活动,但是在每个BOT项目中,都是有若干可能发生的风险,而且BOT项目的风险远远超过一般投资项目的风险,所以对于每个BOT项目而言,项目前期的风险分析则显得尤为重要。