An empirical note about additive outliers and nonstationarity in Latin-American inflation series

This note shows the empirical dangers of the presence of large additive outliers when testing for unit roots using standard unit root statistics. Using recent proposed procedures applied to four Latin-American inflation series, I show that the unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected.Jel classification: C2, C3, C5I want to thank Pierre Perron for useful comments on a preliminary version of this paper. Helpful comments from an anonymous referee, and Yiagadeesen Samy are appreciated. I thank the Editor Baldev Raj for useful comments about the final structure of this paper. Finally, I also thank André Lucas for helpful suggestions concerning the use of his nice computer program Robust Inference Plus Estimation (RIPE).First revision received: August 2001/Final revision received: December 2002     

Existence and specific characters of rentiers: a savers-spenders theory approach

Summary. Using the savers-spenders theory developed by Mankiw (2000, AER), we propose microfoundations to the existence of rentiers in macroeconomic growth models. From an OLG model which acknowledges the great heterogeneity of consumer behavior apparent in the data, we capture the dynamic considerations of potential rentiers as a natural consequence of intertemporal utility maximization and we analyze realistic characteristics (proportion, wealth, propensity to save) of rentiers.JEL Classification Numbers: E13, D64, J22.This paper is adapted from the fourth chapter of my Ph.D Thesis. Then, I thank Alain VENDITTI, my Ph.D Supervisor and Antoine dAUTUME and Pierre PESTIEAU my Ph.D Referees. Earlier version of this paper were presented at the International conference: New perspectives on (un)stability: the role of heterogeneity at Marseille, June 7-9, 2001 and at the X-th Spring School of the Associated European Laboratory (CNRS-FNRS/CORE-GREC-GREQAM) at Aix, 2001. I thank conference participants, in particular Olivier CHARLOT, Christian GHIGLINO, Kiminori MATSUYAMA and Philippe MICHEL for suggestions, helpful comments and discussions. I also thank a referee of this journal for his constructive comments.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Constitutional renegotiation: Impediments to consensual revision

In a post-constitutional context, restructuring of constitutional rights often fundamentally alters the role and scope of government. It is therefore important to assess the extent to which consensuality is likely to characterize the process of constitutional revision. This article provides theoretical and empirical grounds for concluding that nonconsensual constitutional revision is often the rule rather than the exception. The endogeneity of politically relevant transaction costs and their manipulation by self-interested political actors in a post-constitutional environment are central to the analysis. I wish to thank Robert Higgs and this journal's referee for helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

Outliers - robust ECM cointegration tests based on the trend components

The main goal of this paper is to analyze the behavior of the ECM non-cointegration test when there are additive outliers in the time series under different co-breaking situations. We show that the critical values of the usual ECM test are not robust to the presence of transitory shocks and we suggest a procedure based on signal extraction to bypass this problem. These procedure renders ECM tests with a left tail of distribution under the null that is robust to the presence of additive outliers in the series. The small sample critical values and the empirical power of the test are analyzed by Monte Carlo simulations for several low frequency filters. The proposed empirical methodology is applied to the CPI-based US/Finland real exchange rate.JEL Classification: C22, C12, C15, C52, C51 Corresponding author: Alvaro EscribanoWe thank A. Lucas for kindly providing us with the data for the empirical example. Previous drafts of this paper have greatly improved thanks to the comments of two anonymous referees and the Associate Editor. The first author wishes to thank members of Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, and Department of Economics, University of Maryland at College Park. The second author acknowledeges support from the following grants: Spanish MCyT BEC2002-00279, The European TMR-ERB-40618C97-0994 and the Secretaría de Estado de Universidades PR2003-0305. This paper was finished while Alvaro Escribano was visiting the Department of Economics, Georgetwon University, Washington DC, USA.     

Nonuniqueness of solutions in applied general equilibrium models with scale economies and imperfect competition

Summary Since the publication of Harris (1984), applied general equilibrium models with imperfect competition and economies of scale have been extensively used for analyzing international trade and development policy issues. Their attractiveness comes from their offering a natural framework for testing the empirical relevance of numerous propositions from the industrial organization and new trade theoretical literature. Their role in the recent debates on the North American Free Trade Agreement demonstrates their potential importance in policy analysis. This paper warns model builders and users that considerable caution is however needed in interpreting the results and in deriving strong policy conclusion from these models: it is shown that in this generation of applied general equilibrium models, nonuniqueness of equilibria is not a theoretical curiosum, but a potentially serious problem. Disregarding this may lead to dramatically wrong policy appraisals.I am particularly indebted to Tim Kehoe both for his comments and for pinpointing a flaw in a previous version of the paper. I also thank for comments, discussions and/or encouragements Irma Adelman, Len Dudley, Robert Gary-Bobo, Rick Harris, Ed Prescott, Jacques Robert, Herb Scarf, T. N. Srinivasan, and an anonymous referee. Financial support from the FCAR of the Government of Québec and from the SSHRC of the Government of Canada and hospitality from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis are gratefully acknowledged.     

The predictive value of subjective labour supply data: A partial-adjustment model with measurement error

This paper tests the predictive value of subjective labour supply data for adjustments in working hours over time. The idea is that if subjective labour supply data help to predict working hours, the subjective data must contain at least some information on individual labour supply preferences. In this paper, I formulate a partial-adjustment model that allows for measurement error in the observed variables. Applying estimation methods that are developed for dynamic panel data models, I find evidence for a predictive power of subjective labour supply data concerning desired working hours in the German Socio-Economic Panel 1988–1995.I wish to thank John Haisken-DeNew, Astrid Kunze, Markus Pannenberg, Winfried Pohlmeier, Frank Windmeijer, Rainer Winkelmann, my former colleagues at IZA and two anonymous referees for their valuable comments. The author gratefully acknowledges DIW for providing the data.First version received: December 2001/Final version received: December 2003     

Gender wage gap studies: consistency and decomposition

This paper reviews the empirical literature on the gender wage gap, with particular attention given to the identification of the key parameters in human capital wage regression models. This is of great importance in the literature for two main reasons. First, the main explanatory variables in the wage model, i.e., measures of work experience and time-out-of-work, are endogenous. As a result, applying traditional estimators may lead to inconsistent parameter estimates. Second, empirical evidence on the gender wage gap hinges on estimates of the parameters of interest. Accordingly, their economic meaning may be limited by restrictive assumptions included in wage models. This challenges both researchers and policymakers who require precise measures of the gender wage gap in order to create and enforce efficient equality policies. This paper is a substantially revised version of the first chapter of my thesis. I am grateful to Christian Dustmann and Wendy Carlin for their great support and comments. I also thank Bernd Fitzenberger, colleagues at the Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration and IZA, and three anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions.     

Daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve Interventions

This paper reports on the results of an empirical investigation into the objectives of daily foreign exchange market intervention by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve System in the U.S. dollar-Deutsche Mark market. Tobit analysis is implemented to estimate the intervention reaction functions consistently. It is found that an increase in the conditional variance in daily exchange rate returns derived from a GARCH model estimated in the paper, led the Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve to increase the volume of intervention, both in case of dollar-sales and purchases on account of their leaning against the wind policy.We are grateful to the Deutsche Bundesbank, Hauptabteilung Ausland for kindly providing, on a confidential base, the daily data on the official interventions of the Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve, the latter only to the extent that they affected the net foreign position of the Bundesbank. Also, we want to thank Theo Nijman and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Opinions and errors are our own responsibility.     

A generalized additive Tobit model

This paper proposes a semi-parametric approach to estimation in Tobit models. A generalized additive Tobit model of residential local long distance (intra-LATA) telephone demand is estimated on a cross-section of residential telephone consumers across twenty-eight states. While past studies of telecommunications demand have used fully parametric models, the model presented here is non-parametric in two dimensions: first no distributional assumption is made for the error distribution, and second, the demand equation is non-parametric with respect to price. We find that the elasticity of demand is substantially lower (in absolute value) that found in previous studies for a 40% cut in tariffs. First version received: July 2000/Final version received: March 2001 RID="*" ID="*"  I thank the referee and Associate Editor for suggestions which improved the paper. The views expressed here are of the author and not Analysis Group | Economics.     

The economic analysis of offender’s choice: Old and new insights

The economics of crime has followed the basic Becker model (1968), according to which a criminal act results from a rational decision based on cost-benefit analysis. This paper surveys some extensions to Becker’s model, by giving some emphasis to earlier work that tries to explain differences in offender’s choice across places. At the end, the paper analyses the contribution of Steven Levitt (the new Gary Becker), which has stimulated an empirical renaissance in the economic analysis of crime. His new book (co-author Dubner) Freakonomics (2005) offers a new argument in understanding why crime fell in the 1990s in the USA. I am very grateful to an anonymous referee for his valuable comments, which improved the final version of this paper. I would also like to thank Steven Levitt for sending me his unpublished work. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Applications of a generalized metric in the analysis of iterated function systems

Summary. Iterated function systems make up an interesting class of stochastic processes which are useful for many types of stochastic modeling. In this paper we review and slightly generalize a contractivity condition guaranteeing uniqueness of invariant measures. Also, we examine how the invariant measure, and thus also the asymptotic behavior, of such a process is affected by perturbations of the defining functions and probabilities.Received: 15 September 2002, Revised: 29 October 2002, JEL Classification Numbers: C62, O41.I would like to thank Professor Göran Högnäs for his support. I am also greatly indebted to the Finnish Graduate School in Stochastics for my financial support and I would like to thank the anonymous referee for the helpful comments.     

Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice

This paper reviews econometric methods for dynamic panel data models, and presents examples that illustrate the use of these procedures. The focus is on panels where a large number of individuals or firms are observed for a small number of time periods, typical of applications with microeconomic data. The emphasis is on single equation models with autoregressive dynamics and explanatory variables that are not strictly exogenous, and hence on the Generalised Method of Moments estimators that are widely used in this context. Two examples using firm-level panels are discussed in detail: a simple autoregressive model for investment rates; and a basic production function.JEL Classification: C23This paper is prepared for a special issue of the Portuguese Economic Journal. My understanding of this subject has benefitted immeasurably from the input of colleagues, notably Manuel Arellano, Richard Blundell, Costas Meghir, Steve Nickell and Frank Windmeijer. I thank Joao Santos Silva, Frank Windmeijer and other participants at the Cemmap/ESRC Econometric Study Group workshop in London on 22 February 2002 for detailed comments on an earlier draft. Financial support from the ESRC Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy is gratefully acknowledged.     

Technological innovation and long wave theory: Two pieces of the puzzle

Since the 1930s, there have been few attempts to recast long wave theory and address the problems raised by Schumpeter's and Kuznets' models; most work has been empirical. This paper uses an inter-industrial analytical framework to explain stagnation, downswing and recovery. The proposed rationale enables us to dispense with Schumpeter's hypothesis of periodic bunching of radical innovations.Paper presented at the Schumpeter Society Meetings held at Airlie House, Virginia, June 3, 1990. I want to thank Alfred Kleinknecht and Wolfgang Stolper for comments then. This basic model was presented for the first time in the summer of 1979 at TIMS-OSRA in Honolulu at the invitation of Bela Gold, then in a leçon au Collège de France, June 9, 1986 at the invitation of the late François Perroux, when I benefited from his comments and those of Jean Weiller. In 1989, it was presented at the University of Sherbrooke, where I benefited from Petr Hanel's comments, and at the Société canadienne de sciences économiques. I have also benefited from four anonymous reviewers' comments and advice. I thank Daniel Winer for editing.     

Taxation and market work: is Scandinavia an outlier?

This paper argues that it is essential to explicitly consider how the government spends tax revenues when assessing the effects of tax rates on aggregate hours of market work. Different forms of government spending imply different elasticities of hours of work with regard to tax rates. I illustrate the empirical importance of this point by addressing the issue of hours worked and tax rates in three sets of economies: the US, Continental Europe and Scandinavia. While tax rates are highest in Scandinavia, hours worked in Scandinavia are significantly higher than they are in Continental Europe. I argue that differences in the form of government spending can potentially account for this pattern. An early version of the paper was presented at the 2003 conference in honor of Prescott being award the Nemmers Prize in Economics, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. I have benefitted from the comments of numerous seminar participants, but would like to particularly thank Robert Lucas, Ed Prescott, and Nancy Stokey, as well as two anonymous referees, Stephen Parente and Anne Villamil for useful comments. I thank the NSF for financial support.     

The minimum wage and the Lithuanian labour market

This paper presents a comprehensive and non‐standard labour market analysis based on univariate and multivariate models for wages. The novelty of this paper lies in the use of non‐normalized cointegrating vectors for labour market analysis. Wages are the basis of labour market models, as well as the key factor for employees and employers; therefore, the central analytical axis is a classical wage bargaining process, where one side requires and the other side proposes a certain level of wages. Analysis is divided into two parts: foremost, a careful analysis of Lithuanian wages is conducted and a univariate model for the investigation of interactions between the minimum wage and the rest of the wages is proposed; only after the minimum wage model is drafted can the multivarate model for the whole economy be built up. Briefly, the methodology used in this article can be annotated as a synthesis of sequential theoretical and empirical considerations that combine the results of theoretical macroeconomics with data‐generating patterns and stylized facts. The model is considered as the final one only if macro‐theory preconditions, statistical prerequisites, and stylized real‐world requirements are met and fulfilled. In addition, this article gives an example and a quantitatively, as well as qualitatively, motivated suggestion as to how to incorporate minimum wages into econometric models and puts forward an explanation for why it is necessary to include minimum wage dynamics into labour market analysis. The article is nothing but an empirical case study that demonstrates how many minor details have to be taken into account until a realistic labour market model is built up. Although the paper deals with the labour market, the suitable application of time series methods is the main subject of the analysis.     

A model of rational bias in self-assessments

Summary. A body of empirical work documents that most people believe they are above average in a variety of skills and abilities. This paper argues that such evidence does not necessarily imply that people process information in an irrational way. I build a model in which people can learn about their abilities at a cost of foregone production. Individuals in this model keep testing their abilities until their self-assessments become favorable enough, at which point they stop. This way, a disproportionately large share of the population ends up with a high opinion about their abilities.Received: 22 August 2001, Revised: 20 March 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D81, D83, J22, J29.I would like to thank an anonymous referee, Herbert Dawid, Tom Gilligan, Eric Van den Steen, Ruqu Wang, and especially Patrick Francois for helpful comments and suggestions. I have also benefited from comments of seminar participants at Queen's University and from conversations with Frank Milne and Ivo Welch.     

Recursive utility and the rate of impatience

Summary This paper studies the role of impatience in a model with recursively defined preferences. A method is introduced whereby the rate of impatience can be parametrically adjusted for a given aggregator. Using lattice programming and Topkis' Theorem (1978) sufficient conditions are discovered to guarantee that a reduction in the rate of impatience will lead to greater capital stocks in every period.I would like to thank my advisor John H. Boyd III for his encouragement at several steps along the way. I would also like to thank P. Dutta, Raghu Sundaram and William Thompson for several helpful suggestions. Finally, I have benefited tremendously from the advice of an anonymous referee. This article reflects the views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Trade Commission or any individual Commissioner.     

Fertility,human capital and the wealth of families

Summary An overlapping generations model with parental altruism is examined. The existence of the optimal value function in a model with an endogenous discount rate is proven. Two development regimes are produced: a high fertility, low income and no growth steady state, and a perpetual growth equilibrium with low fertility and rising income.This paper is adapted from my dissertation. I would like to thank the members of my dissertation committee for helpful comments and suggestions, Messrs, Gary S. Becker, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Kevin M. Murphy and Sherwin Rosen. I'd like to thank Brooks Pierce, Paul Romer, Ken Judd, Beth Ingram, Ed Prescott and Fernando Alvarez. I also thank the workshop participants of the University of Chicago, University of Pennsylvania, University of Toronto, University of Rochester, University of Washington, Penn State University, University at Buffalo, SUNY, Columbia University and University of Iowa.     

Distributional assumptions and a test of the dual labor market hypothesis

Recent application of the switching regression model to allocate workers into the primary and secondary labor markets is considered to be the best solution to the classification problem of the empirical testing of the dual labor market theory. In such models, normality of the error terms is assumed. This paper adopts the switching regression model to test the dual labor market theory by assuming different distributions of the error terms. The test results strongly support the dual labor market theory regardless of the assumption one makes about the error terms. However, the results indicate that different distribution can lead to different percentage distributions of workers in the two segments. In particular, the normal distribution generates more workers in the primary segment than the non-normal distributions. Therefore, care must be taken not to generalize the type of industries or occupations that fall under the primary and secondary segments. First version received: October 2000/Final version received: March 2002 RID="*" ID="*"  I would like to thank Kevin Lang, Robert Marshall, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. I am grateful for comments received from the session participants of the Western Economic Association International Conference, San Francisco, CA, June 28–July 2, 1996, and the Midwest Economic Association Conference, Kansas City, 1997. I thank George Bonney, the Chief Statistician of Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia for his comments. Any remaining errors are my responsibility. I gratefully acknowledge financial support from Penn State Research and Development Grant, 1995.