论当代资本主义经济的新变化

正确认识当代资本主义经济的新变化,必须全面地看待当代资本主义经济发生的新变化,辨证地分析当代资本主义经济发生新变化的主要原因,坚信资本主义的灭亡和社会主义的胜利是大势所趋。     

Stability and Growth Pact: issues and lessons from political economy

The paper analyses the EU fiscal rules from a political economy perspective and derives some policy lessons. Following a literature survey, the paper stresses the importance of appropriate incentives for rule compliance in an environment where national fiscal sovereignty precludes the option of centralised enforcement. In addition, the paper stresses the importance of clear and simple rules and in particular the 3% deficit limit in anchoring expectations of fiscal discipline and facilitating public and market monitoring of public finances. This, in turn, strengthens incentive for rule compliance. Moreover, the paper discusses the interests of the most important players in European fiscal rule formation and the importance of choosing the appropriate time for initiating a reform debate.Non-technical summary The EU fiscal framework as laid down in the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP, the Pact) aims to preserve fiscal sustainability while allowing room for automatic fiscal stabilisation. These two objectives are also at the heart of the ECB’s interest in the EU fiscal framework because their attainment facilitates monetary policy making in the short and long run.The paper analyses the EU fiscal rules from a political economy perspective and derives some policy lessons. The literature review of the first part reveals that fiscal rules can help solve deficit/debt biases and time inconsistency problems by constraining the behavior of policy makers. But rules can also mitigate biases if they facilitate financial market and public scrutiny of fiscal policies.Thereafter, the paper analyses the institutional environment in which EU fiscal rules are applied. It argues that EU rules reflect a “contract” amongst countries that retain sovereignty on fiscal policies. Enforcement, therefore, ultimately has to be undertaken by the contracting parties. Due to this constraint, the rules can also be characterised as “soft” law (with the 3% limit being nevertheless a much “harder” constraint than the other elements). But this does not necessarily imply that the rules are ineffective (or “dead”). Soft law reduces political transaction costs (by improving transparency and providing a forum for peer pressure). Moreover, if well-designed, such law can boost incentives towards making the rules “self-enforcing”. Evidence speaks in favour of this view: while EU fiscal rules were bent in a number of cases and compliance is undeniably of concern, major and rapid fiscal balance deteriorations have been largely prevented since the start of EMU.The paper also looks at potential trade-offs between “complex” rules where a “fine-tuned” economic rationale may boost acceptance of the rules versus simple and clear rules that allow easy monitoring. It is argued that clarity and simplicity of rules are important especially when formal enforcement is limited (“soft law”) and public monitoring becomes more important. By facilitating public and market monitoring of compliance, clear and simple rules are also more costly to breach.The benefits of “complexity”, and in particular the use of administrative discretion to fine tune the rules to country situations have limits, in particular when it comes to the excessive deficit procedure (EDP). It is argued that the 3% deficit limit and the time frame for correcting excessive deficits already provide some room to accommodate economic circumstances. The 3% limit must be clear, simple and strictly implemented to anchor expectations of fiscal discipline and to facilitate public and market monitoring. Further discretion and relaxation would conflict with this need. From this angle, other risks (e.g., efforts not materializing, structural reforms producing surprise costs etc) are hard to justify as a reason for extending deadlines to correct excessive deficits.The preventive arm of the Pact with its requirement of close-to-balance-or-in-surplus budgetary positions defines sound medium term budget positions and adjustment paths. This may be appropriately fine-tuned to address concerns about the Pact’s underlying economic rationale. For example, a symmetric application in good and bad times and less time inconsistency would be desirable.Finally, the timing of a debate on fiscal rules needs to be carefully chosen. In the EU context (and perhaps in other contexts as well), there seems to be much inherent pressure to make the rules more “complex”. Moreover, for the debate initiated in summer 2004, there was also no willingness by countries to give up sovereignty nor was there a sense of urgency to strengthen public finances via tighter rule implementation and enforcement. In such an environment, it is likely that changes to fiscal rules make them more complicated, discretionary and, thereby, potentially less enforceable.The views expressed are those of the author and not of the ECB. Comments by Vitor Gaspar, Mark Hallerberg, Steven Keuning, Jose Marin, Richard Morris, Gilles Noblet, Hedwig Ongena, Luca Onorante, Rolf Strauch, Juergen von Hagen, an anonymous referee and valuable assistance by Anna Foden are much appreciated.     

论改革开放后我国经济与社会的历史性巨变

改革开放是决定中国命运的关键抉择。30年前,我们国家面临的是十分困难的局面:经济和社会发展缓慢,人民温饱问题没有解决。改革开放使中国经济、社会发生了历史性巨变:经济建设取得了举世瞩目的成就;工业化、城镇化稳步推进;对外开放的领域和规模不断扩大;改革开放还带来了社会结构的变化。     

促进低碳经济发展财税政策的国际实践及启示

文章论述了欧盟、美国、日本等经济发达国家在促进低碳经济发展方面的财税政策,分析其特点,并结合我国国情,从建立绿色预算制度、加大财政投入力度、改革税收制度、完善税收优惠政策以及加强制度创新、提高财税政策效果等方面提出了促进低碳经济发展的对策建议。     

The institutional innovation and improvement in building of the East Asian corporate governance model

The East Asian corporate governance model is gradually established based on institutional innovation of western corporate governance. This paper holds that institutional innovation of the East Asian corporate governance model is mainly manifested in following aspects： the relational style of governance mechanisms, more intervention of government, high concentration of ownership structure and unique operation of the power institutions etc. This unique model of corporate governance is considered as one of the motivations of ＂East Asian Miracle＂, but it also causes many problems. After the Asian financial crisis, the East Asian countries and regions reform and improve their pattern of corporate governance and obtain some results. The paper deems that reduction of government intervention and legal protection provided by judicial system are crucial for corporate governance.     

制度变迁与小西北区域经济一体化研究

根据制度经济学相关理论,结合小西北地区经济实际,文章认为,制度约束是该地区经济落后的重要原因。区域经济一体化是打破制度约束、促进经济发展的良策,但地方政府的阻碍提高了交易费用,使一体化进程缓慢。文章指出,通过地方政府主动改革打破自身对经济发展的阻碍,在诱致性制度变迁基础上适度推行强制性制度变迁,小西北区域经济一体化进程有望加快。同时中央政府须尽快完善地方政府的激励机制以促进区域经济一体化发展。     

广东经济发展与媒体创新

政治及经济力量、社会变革都会影响传播活动。广东经济发展引发了媒体创新并形成了良性互动。媒体创新体现在媒体数量的增长,媒体对社会的影响力,对受众的引导等。广东媒体创新的动力是经济发展,创新的路径与一般的创新类似,诸如体制与机制创新、技术创新等。广东媒体体制创新与机制创新对全国其他媒体的改革影响巨大。广东经济发展也带动了知识沟的缩小,反过来,知识沟的缩小又引导媒体创新的进一步发展。     

生产方式变革与经济转型

产业是经济的基础,经济转型实质就是产业转型.产业核心是生产方式,经济转型必然以生产方式变革为基础.劳动者、劳动对象、劳动资料和劳动组织形式是生产方式的基本构成,因此,生产方式基本要素变革成为经济转型的根本.     

城乡统一建设用地市场形成的动力机制研究

"土地城镇化"模式下城乡土地利益结构失衡问题日趋严重,强制性构建城乡统一建设用地市场的目标在短期内较难实现,而在诱致性制度变迁的推动下,由农民自发组成、得到政府支持、有限度的城乡统一建设用地市场是可能的。文章从制度变迁的博弈均衡视角出发,结合地方政府与中央政府、开发商、农村基层政权和农民四组博弈,探讨推动城乡统一建设用地市场形成的动力机制,为其破除制度障碍和减少改革阻力提供理论基础。     

我国经济制度变迁与经济增

改革开放以来我国制度变迁建立了比较完善的市场经济制度,国有经济比重下降,非国有经济比重上升,个人消费品分配的按劳分配比例的下降,生产要素按贡献分配比例的上升。优化了资源配置,促进了我国经济的增长,从而促进我国的经济增长。     

The limited role of small stock exchanges in economic development: A case study of Mozambique and Swaziland

The establishment of a successful stock market in a developing economy can provide a major source of development finance, both channelling domestic savings and attracting foreign investment. But small markets generally fail. Two micro-markets, Mozambique and Swaziland, provide an interesting case study to examine the features of new markets in sub-Saharan Africa that differ in a number of ways, including colonial legacy, membership of the Common Monetary Area and the dynamics of the political economy that defines the links between the citizens, the local elite and the state. In both countries, the operational aspects of the stock exchange are clearly inadequate as a means of promoting international investment. Thus, gains from regional integration initiatives or foreign investment are unlikely, as the market's small size and incomplete institutions currently offer limited potential for either domestic or international risk diversification. However, the political economy in both countries is the real barrier to growth.     

农村土地制度变革中的产权闭合分析

文章通过分析我国集体合作制、家庭联产承包责任制两种土地制度下各主体的产权变化,提出产权闭合的概念,从阶层和利益的角度研究土地流转过程中阶层群体及其产权状态,探究土地流转的约束条件。文章认为,在土地流转条件下,土地产权主体发生裂变,各主体的利益和产权状态变化直接决定土地流转的范围、规模和制度走向。要推进土地流转,获取农业生产的规模经济效应,必须充分重视土地对农民的保障功能,并进行合理的剥离和替代,实现农民产权闭合。     

FDI结构性转变是否促进经济增长

随着经济结构日趋服务化,我国外商直接投资结构发生了深刻变化,外商直接投资逐步从制造业转向服务业。本文基于内生经济增长模型,运用系统GMM两步法,考察了FDI结构性转变对经济增长影响,并利用2004--2010年省级面板数据进行实证分析。研究结果显示：（1）FDI流向服务业有利于整体劳动生产率增长;（2）我国FDI的结构性转变对制造业劳动生产率的提升作用显著,对服务业生产率的促进作用尚未体现;（3）FDI结构变迁存在明显的地域差异,东部地区与西部地区FDI结构性转变对劳动生产率的促进作用显著。本文的研究为提高我国服务业发展绩效,优化产业结构以及经济增长方式的转型升级提供了可行路径,具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。