供给侧改革背景下新兴经济体发展现实比较及延伸思考

经济全球化促进了经济要素全球范围的广泛流动,也催生出了一些发展速度快、对全球影响较大的新兴经济体。研究发现:中国、巴西、俄罗斯、印度、南非这些新兴经济体的人均GDP在时间上发生了显著性变化,各个新兴经济体间的人均GDP也存在显著性差别。近十年间,中国经济增长基本保持了平稳状态,GDP的增长率波动不大,巴西、俄罗斯、印度以及南非经济增长波动均较大;中国与其他新兴经济体的货物与服务进出口、国外直接投资均没有显著的相关关系,彼此间影响也不明显。未来中国需要进一步优化产业结构,加强生态、制度环境建设,推动经济社会的全面进步;要加快新一轮高水平对外开放,拓展国际合作空间,建成开放型经济体;促进机会平等,走包容性经济增长之路,实现经济社会可持续发展。     

新兴经济体市场需求变化态势与中国企业选择——基于东莞外向型企业拓展新兴市场的调研

国际金融危机后,新兴经济体成为世界经济复苏及其持续发展的主要动力来源。以IMF界定的26个新兴市场国家为范围,通过东莞外向型企业拓展新兴市场的情况调研,发现新兴市场需求具有进口规模不大、增速快、市场需求差异比较大等特征,对中国企业拓展新兴市场具有一定挑战。中国企业必须转变对新兴市场的观念,采取多路径进入新兴市场,并加强对新兴市场的维护。     

全球经济周期调整与中国对外开放政策

伴随金融危机,全球经济处于一个艰难的调整期。在这一时期中无论是发达经济体和新兴经济体经济都遭受巨大冲击,甚至不同程度陷入衰退;中国的经济也受到很大不利影响。为了应对金融危机,保持经济增长,中国应积极调整对外开放政策。     

A Framework for Assessing Global Imbalances1

Since the mid‐1990s and prior to the financial crisis external balances of systemically important economies widened significantly. This paper takes a long‐run perspective and reviews the main determinants of widening global imbalances. To this aim, we first provide a set of newly derived statistical measures: while large external imbalances are not new in economic history, their persistence, their concentration on one economy (the United States) and the specific role of emerging market economies make the present episode rather unique. Second, we argue that the observed pattern of imbalances can be mostly understood as a result of various structural changes in the global economy, which have allowed a widening trend of external positions. Three main features set the most recent period apart from past episodes of growing external imbalances: (i) the emergence of new players, in particular emerging market economies such as China and India, which are quickly catching up with the advanced economies; (ii) an unprecedented wave of financial globalisation, with more integrated global financial markets and increasing opportunities for international portfolio diversification, also characterised by considerable asymmetries in the level of market completeness across countries; and (iii) the favourable global macroeconomic and financial environment, with record high global growth rates in recent years, low financial market volatility and easy global financing conditions over a long period of time, running until the outburst of the financial crisis during the summer of 2007. These structural changes that have been supplemented by cyclical or policy‐induced factors ultimately facilitated the sudden, disorderly unwinding of global imbalances that is reflected in the current financial crisis.     

Internationalization strategies of emerging market banks: Challenges and opportunities

The greatly improved economic fundamentals of the major emerging economies over the last decade have propelled several emerging banks into the ranks of the world’s largest. Despite their importance in the global economy, the internationalization of emerging market banks remains an understudied phenomenon. This article examines factors that may influence the internationalization strategies of emerging market banks in the private banking sector, both when going abroad (take-off) and upon arrival in a host country (landing). The private banking sector is of significant interest given its importance in many leading financial centers around the world while undergoing major transformation due to the worldwide financial crisis, several recent scandals, and a fast-changing regulatory environment. We highlight the internationalization strategies of two banks from emerging countries, China and Brazil, and their experience in Switzerland’s traditional private banking sector. These two cases highlight factors that may influence successful internationalization such as prior industry experience, existing client base, entry strategy, ownership type, and the liability of foreignness. Our findings offer valuable implications for managers from other emerging economies by providing a better understanding of how emerging market banks expand internationally.     

The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy: The role of the exchange rate regime

It is often argued that many economies are affected by conditions in foreign countries. This paper explores the connection between interest rates in major industrial countries and annual real output growth in other countries. The results show that high foreign interest rates have a contractionary effect on annual real GDP growth in the domestic economy, but that this effect is centered on countries with fixed exchange rates. The paper then examines the potential channels through which major-country interest rates affect other economies. The effect of foreign interest rates on domestic interest rates is the most likely channel when compared with other possibilities, such as a trade effect.     

Understanding the role of China's domestic market in the (unequal) growth of world economy

This study investigates the rising role of China's domestic market expansion from 1995 to 2011 in the world economy's growth. China maintained high domestic expenditure growth during the entire period, with even bigger increases in the last years, when the global financial crisis and subsequent economic recovery occurred. The expenditures facilitated rapid growth through high demand for durable goods, which are produced across widely fragmented Asian channels. At the same time, China integrated further into the global economy and imported intermediate goods increasingly became embedded in goods for domestic sale. These two forces combined to magnify the impact of China's market expansion on foreign economies but disproportionately more on its neighbouring countries and sectors related to durable goods production. Specifically, our estimates suggest that the expenditure growth in China over the 2009–11 period added about 1 percentage point to the annual GDP growth rate in Taiwan, Malaysia and Korea, while the NAFTA and EU member countries typically benefited by less than 0.1 percentage point.     

Linear and nonlinear growth determinants: The case of Mongolia and its connection to China

We investigate growth determinants for Mongolia as a small emerging economy with respect to China as its large neighbor. Our causality analysis during 1992 to 2017 reveals significant linear as well as nonlinear relationships in growth explanation. China's GDP and coal prices, together with some of their linear and nonlinear lagged components, predict Mongolia's GDP, where a 1 % increase in China's GDP relates to a 1.5% increase in that of Mongolia. Current exchange rates and the nonlinear components of lagged consumer prices also explain growth. Our results underline the role of macroeconomic drivers of growth in emerging economies.     

Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling

In this paper, we investigate the degree of real economic interdependence between emerging East Asian and major industrial countries to shed light on the heated debate over the ‘decoupling’ of emerging East Asia. We first document the evolution of macroeconomic interdependence for emerging East Asian economies through changing trade and financial linkages at both the regional and global levels. Then, by employing a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model, we estimate the degree of real economic interdependence before and after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. Empirical findings show that real economic interdependence increased significantly in the post‐crisis period, suggesting ‘recoupling’, rather than decoupling, in recent years. Output shocks from major industrial countries have a significant positive effect on emerging East Asian economies. More interestingly, the reverse is also true. Output shocks from emerging East Asia (and China) have a significant positive effect on output in major industrial countries. The result suggests that macroeconomic interdependence between emerging East Asia and industrial countries have become ‘bi‐directional’, defying the traditional notion of the ‘North–South relationship’ as one of ‘uni‐directional’ dependence.     

Saving and investment rates in the BRICS countries

The first decade of the new millennium witnessed the arrival of five large, fast-growing emerging economies on the global stage. These countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, collectively known as the BRICS countries, have achieved robust growth and steadily outpaced the advanced economies in the last quarter of a century or so. In spite of their recent slowdown, on the basis of their demographics, vast natural resources, physical and human capital accumulation and overall progress, they are likely to remain the engines of global economic growth and development for some time in the future. In the light of the rising role of BRICS countries in the world economy, this paper aims to study the relationship between their domestic saving and investment rates in the vein of Feldstein–Horioka but on a country-by-country basis using time-series econometric techniques. The results suggest that the basic Feldstein–Horioka regression is misspecified for each BRICS country. The preferred autoregressive-distributed-lag specifications imply that capital is not perfectly mobile internationally in any of the BRICS countries, but it is more mobile in South Africa and Russia than in India, Brazil and China.     

我国货币中性的实证研究

国际金融危机爆发以来,降低利率、增加流通中货币成了各国政府解决金融危机的共同做法,货币对于经济的积极作用再次引起人们的关注。过于宽松的货币政策能持续多久,会不会造成严重的通货膨胀,进而破坏经济的健康发展,也同样引起人们的关注。本文对我国1978-2009年的流通中货币、利率、物价指数对GDP的影响进行了实证研究,结果表明流通中货币不是实际GDP增长的格兰杰原因,货币是中性的;GDP的实际增长率是实际利率的格兰杰原因,名义利率和GDP没有因果关系;GDP和物价指数没有格兰杰因果关系,通货膨胀不能促进经济的增长。     

全球经济危机对我国出口贸易的影响

首先定性地分析了发达国家的经济发展和我国出口贸易十多年的走势,探究不同时期两者之间的变化是否趋同;然后选取美国、欧元区的国内GDP和商品相对价格指标,建立这两个因素对我国的出口贸易的影响程度的计量方程;随后,建立两个不同的VAR模型,第一个模型考察我国出口贸易和美、欧实体经济间的长期协整关系,运用脉冲响应函数分析外部冲击的滞后效应;针对当前金融危机造成货币紧缩,各国均采取一系列的刺激经济恢复的手段,在第二个VAR模型中,选取了较为代表性的外部因素——欧美的信贷政策和居民消费,以及作为国际资本流动因素的我国FDI,并运用脉冲响应函数考察这些政策因素对我国出口贸易产生的长期影响。最后根据实证结论提出政策建议。     

The Renminbi and Poor‐country Growth

Discussions on how best to exit from global imbalances to create a more balanced world economy have ignored the impact on poor countries of proposals to redress these imbalances. This paper aims at filling that gap. It gauges the degree of renminbi (RMB) undervaluation; presents evidence on RMB undervaluation and China’s GDP growth rate; surveys the role of the real effective exchange rate – both its level and its stability over time – for underpinning growth in developing countries, especially in large dual economies such as China and India; and finally, presents new evidence on growth linkages between China and poor countries for the last two decades and surveys literature on potential displacement effects of RMB appreciation. The analysis allows broad conclusions to be drawn about the potential developing‐country beneficiaries and losers from various renminbi adjustment scenarios in the forthcoming years.     

Does Bank Diversification Improve Output Growth? Evidence from the Recent Global Crisis

This study examines whether the diversity of activities conducted by the banking sector in the years approaching the recent global financial crisis alleviated the adverse impact of the crisis. Using data for 28 industries in 66 countries, we find that bank diversification has strengthened country resilience to the crisis, as measured by industry growth over the period 2008–2009. However, we find that while both bank‐based and market‐based economies have been affected negatively by the crisis, the contribution of bank diversification in mitigating the real impact of the crisis is pronounced only in bank‐based economies. Overall, our findings suggest that countries with significant bank diversification have also been the most resilient to the recent global crisis.     

2011-2012中国外贸百强城市

2011-2012中国城市外贸竞争力格局传递出新鲜变化:进出口规模不再是进入榜单的决定性因素,21座外贸城市不以规模取胜,而凭借发展速度和未来潜力挤入榜单;加工贸易占主导的"贫困"式增长方式有所转变,一般贸易所占比重显著攀升;"东强西弱"的地区分布格     

The International Effects of China’s Growth,Trade and Education Booms

China’s international trade flows have increased by 500 per cent since 1992, far outstripping GDP growth. Likewise tertiary education enrolments have increased by 300 per cent. We simulate these changes using a multi‐sector growth model of the Chinese and USA economies. A decade of trade biased growth in China is found to raise USA GDP by approximately 3–4.5 percentage points and has a large impact on the demand for tertiary education in China. Despite these positive effects of growth, the results suggest that the expansion of China’s education sector per se has practically no long‐run impact on the USA economy.     

Sovereign bond spreads determinants in Latin American countries: Before and during the XXI financial crisis

This paper aims to identify the main determinants of sovereign bond spreads in seven Latin American countries and verify the existence of contagion effect over these markets during the last financial crisis. We apply a panel data framework and find that the inflation, terms of trade ratio and the external debt and international reserves (both as percentage of GDP) are key drivers of sovereign bond spreads. Moreover, we test the crisis impact over emerging economies. Our results show that the crisis has a statistically significant impact on the EMBIG spreads since 2008.     

Is the Global Economy Headed for a Lost Decade? A European Perspective

In the 15 years leading up to the recent crisis, the world economy's exceptional performance was driven by globalisation, rapid, export-driven growth in emerging markets, debt-fuelled consumption in major advanced economies, and a benign financial and macroeconomic environment. These, however, sowed the seeds for the financial crisis by creating unsustainable imbalances and distortions. Obstacles to future growth are likely to be retrenchment in consumption, dampened investment, and unsustainable fiscal balances. Going forward, there must be a renewed commitment to medium-term, rule-based, policies for maintaining fiscal sustainability, price stability, and financial stability. The international imbalances between savings and consumption must also be addressed through a global reform agenda discussed in the paper. Even with reform, the challenges to growth will be daunting. Without reform, however, it is likely that the global economy will suffer a lost decade.     

国际金融危机与世界经济前景

国际金融危机目前已经发展到第二阶段,其影响从发达国家扩展到发展中国家,从金融领域蔓延到实体经济。2008年发达国家经济已经陷入衰退,全球经济增长率大幅放慢。鉴于国际金融危机还在继续恶化,2009年全球经济增长率会进一步降低。但我们认为,房地产市场2009年下半年可能会趋于走稳,油价下跌,通货膨胀压力减轻,由于主要大国采取政府干预措施以及经济政策的国际协调,全球经济发生20世纪30年代那样大萧条的可能性不大。除了短期内经济衰退之外,这场国际金融危机的中长期影响将是深远的。     

Introduction: the icarus paradox in Korean business and management

Some writers argue that modern history reveals that countries pass through ‘cycles’ in economic leadership. The ‘forerunners’ of industrialization used inventions and innovations as the major sources of their growth. On the other hand, newly industrializing countries, labelled ‘latecomers’ vis-à-vis the first groups, relied more on imitating, borrowing, or learning advanced technological and organizational capabilities to achieve national industrialization and eventually to gain national competitiveness. For some time, many have viewed such economies, especially the ‘Asian Tigers’, as a major force that will lead future world economic growth. However, such expectations have diminished with the recent financial crisis and contagion in Asia. The subject matter covered here includes the sources of economic growth and industrialization, the ‘catch-up’ strategies of firms, and foreign investment. The causes of the recent financial crisis, and future possibilities for the Korean model of business and management, are also analysed.