Macroeconomic policy cooperation and the G20

Has the G20 achieved its goals in macroeconomic cooperation since 2008? The paper organises the G20's efforts under five themes: macroeconomic stimulus, fiscal consolidation, monetary policy, the global financial safety net and global imbalances. The G20 was initially successful in each of these areas, but this success was short‐lived. While the G20 met its goals on macroeconomic stimulus, it has been less successful in reducing deficits and debt. While it was successful in increasing its resources, the global financial safety net remains too small, too fragmented and institutional reform is incomplete. While the G20 succeeded in moving to more market‐determined exchange rates and avoiding competitive devaluations, it struggled to avoid negative spillovers. Despite years of effort, the G20 has made limited progress in reducing global imbalances. Current account imbalances are creeping back to pre‐crisis levels. Public debt remains high and most economies are moving in the wrong direction in correcting imbalances in household savings and debt. The paper concludes that the G20 has done better in some areas than others. But to suggest the G20 is a forum in decline ignores its shift from reactive crisis response to longer‐term structural challenges outside of the pressing need of an immediate crisis.     

Global Imbalances and Petrodollars

Oil exporters have run large current account surpluses. We explore oil exporters’ role in the global imbalances debate. Current account dynamics are estimated for oil‐exporting countries and the rest of the world. We find that fiscal policy has a much stronger effect on the current account of oil exporters than on current accounts of other countries. The current account adjustment of oil‐exporting countries is also faster. Fiscal policy of oil exporters can have a significant and speedy impact on global imbalances. The impact via the adjustment of exchange rates might not be effective.     

Trade Costs and Current Accounts

Are trade cost reductions a plausible explanation for growing global current account imbalances? I advocate that changes in trade costs affect trade and production structures, which is likely to affect national savings and investment. Explicitly adding trade costs à la Markusen and Venables into Jin's framework, this augmented model predicts that trade cost reductions affect the current account through changes in the industrial structure. Empirical evidence confirms that the interaction of trade costs and capital intensity drives current account balances. I also provide evidence that the response of current accounts to changes in trade costs depends on the capital intensity of production and on the depth of regional agreements on trade and factor mobility. Aside from the direct effect generally emphasised in standard macro‐level analysis, changes in production patterns could therefore be an additional channel of impact of regional integration on current accounts.     

Irrungen und Wirrungen mit der Leistungsbilanzstatistik

In the current crisis the current account surplus and deficit position of single member countries has been considered to be a key indicator of the internal imbalances of the eurozone. German current account surplusses are confronted with current account deficits in the GIIPS countries. But Germany’s current account surplus vis-à-vis these countries has rapidly declined since the outbreak of the global economic and financial crisis mostly caused by the drastic recession in these countries. Furthermore, the near-zero interest rate policy of the ECB has drastically reduced the interest payments from these countries to Germany.     

全球经常项目失衡的实证研究

理论研究者和相关政策文献的建议者在分析影响全球经常项目失衡的各种经济变量时提出了不同的观点。本文利用全球范围内52个国家或地区1980年到2004年的经济数据对影响经常项目失衡的多种经济因素进行了实证研究,力图对当前解释全球经常项目失衡原因的各种观点进行实证检验,并结合实证研究结果提出解决当前全球经常项目失衡问题的相关政策建议。     

Transpacific Trade Imbalances: Causes and Cures

This paper explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances. We find the fundamental cause of trade imbalance since 1997 is changes in saving‐investment gaps, attributed to the surge of the US fiscal deficits and the decline of East Asia's private investment after the 1997 financial crisis. Our simulation results show that a revaluation of East Asia's exchange rates by 10 per cent (effectively a shift in monetary policy) cannot resolve the imbalances. We find East Asia's concerted efforts to stimulate aggregate demand can have significant impacts on trade balances globally, but the impact on the US trade balance is not large. US fiscal contraction is estimated to have large impacts on the US trade position overall and on the bilateral trade balances with East Asian economies. These results suggest that in order to improve the transpacific imbalance, macroeconomic adjustment will need to be made on both sides of the Pacific.     

China's exports,export tax rebates and exchange rate policy

This paper examines the relationship between China's exports, export tax rebates and exchange rate policy. It offers an explanation for why China's exports continued to rise under RMB real appreciations during the Asian financial crisis. Based on a traditional export demand model, we test our hypothesis that the counteracting effects of China's export tax rebate policy have diminished the effectiveness of real exchange rates in facilitating the resolution of trade imbalances under the current pegged exchange rate regime. We find evidence that RMB real appreciations during the crisis negatively affected China's exports, but the negative effects were mitigated by the positive effects of export tax rebates. We also find evidence of a long‐run relationship between China's exports and the other explanatory variables. The empirical evidence suggests that under the pegged exchange rate regime with limited adjustments, real exchange rate movements alone cannot resolve China's external imbalances. The policy implication of this study is that China needs to redirect its decades‐long export‐oriented development strategy to one that emphasises domestic demand‐oriented development and to replace the current pegged exchange rate regime with a market‐oriented more flexible exchange rate regime.     

Der deutsche Leistungsbilanzüberschuss

Persistent and significant current account imbalances are often seen as one of the greatest threats to the global economy and a catalyst for protectionist tendencies. Germany is often criticised for running a high surplus. However, economists disagree about whether and to what extent the German current-account surplus is excessive and which policy measures could help to rebalance the current account. The authors argue that the German current-account surplus is a global phenomenon and hence requires in addition to economic policies that could stimulate investment activity in Germany an internationally coordinated approach. Taking into account the specific circumstances of a country, the WTO could act as an institutional framework to deal with global imbalances. In particular the WTO’s Trade Policy Review Mechanism could be further developed into a forum for coordinating members’ trade policy and for agreeing on reciprocal measures among members. The concrete design could be based on other established international mechanisms, such as the European Semester.     

Globalisation and Industrial Policy: The Case of China

After a quarter of a century of industrial policy, China's objective of nurturing a group of globally competitive state‐owned enterprises appears to have succeeded beyond most expectations. However, China's SOEs are far from catching up with the world's leading firms. Protection through state ownership in a massive, fast‐growing economy has permitted China's SOEs to earn large profits and achieve high market capitalisations, but this is not the same thing as building globally competitive firms. The fact that China's industrial policy has been unsuccessful after a quarter of a century of intense effort demonstrates how difficult it is to construct an industrial policy in the era of capitalist globalisation, which has produced intense global industrial concentration across large parts of the global value chain. Although the detailed content of the next stage of reform of China's large state‐owned enterprises is unclear, China's determination to build a group of globally competitive large companies remains undimmed.     

A Framework for Assessing Global Imbalances1

Since the mid‐1990s and prior to the financial crisis external balances of systemically important economies widened significantly. This paper takes a long‐run perspective and reviews the main determinants of widening global imbalances. To this aim, we first provide a set of newly derived statistical measures: while large external imbalances are not new in economic history, their persistence, their concentration on one economy (the United States) and the specific role of emerging market economies make the present episode rather unique. Second, we argue that the observed pattern of imbalances can be mostly understood as a result of various structural changes in the global economy, which have allowed a widening trend of external positions. Three main features set the most recent period apart from past episodes of growing external imbalances: (i) the emergence of new players, in particular emerging market economies such as China and India, which are quickly catching up with the advanced economies; (ii) an unprecedented wave of financial globalisation, with more integrated global financial markets and increasing opportunities for international portfolio diversification, also characterised by considerable asymmetries in the level of market completeness across countries; and (iii) the favourable global macroeconomic and financial environment, with record high global growth rates in recent years, low financial market volatility and easy global financing conditions over a long period of time, running until the outburst of the financial crisis during the summer of 2007. These structural changes that have been supplemented by cyclical or policy‐induced factors ultimately facilitated the sudden, disorderly unwinding of global imbalances that is reflected in the current financial crisis.     

EU's competition policy and the GE‐Honeywell merger fiasco: Transatlantic divergence and consumer and regulatory issues

This article discusses and analyzes the European Union's (EU's) competition policy and the 2001 General Electric‐Honeywell merger fiasco within the areas of global business and transatlantic issues. Based on a brief literature review of marketing, competition policy/antitrust law, vertical/horizontal integration, and global business, the article tries to explain those conditions that led to this failed merger. It is expected that in the coming years, the EU's competition policy and the United States' antitrust law will continue to differ and may create problems for those multinationals seeking large‐scale mergers and acquisitions in North America and Europe. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

As the dollar sinks,will the yuan float?

Many scholars believe with the United States' increasing debt, the global position of the dollar is weakening. As the dollar declines, China, now the largest holder of U.S. dollars in the world, is understandably concerned. China's controversial peg to the U.S. dollar, combined with its $2.4 trillion in foreign reserves and trade imbalances, is debated daily by politicians and economists. This article presents arguments for and against the current China monetary policy in economic and political contexts. Statements from China's leaders, other global leaders, and economists are reviewed. Economic and political obstacles and incentives in the context of their influence on the China government are considered. Finally, milestones for business leaders to look for are suggested to help determine China's possible path to a fully convertible yuan. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Capital controls,capital flows and external crises: evidence from India

Despite the widespread use of capital controls, India has experienced several balance of payments crises. This paper examines the solvency and sustainability of India's external imbalances and analyses the optimality of its capital flows. We use two approaches: an intertemporal model of the current account that allows for capital controls, and a composite model of macroeconomic indicators that yields probabilities of future balance of payments crises. The results indicate that India's intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied and that the path of its current account imbalances is sustainable, with some support for the optimality (given capital controls) of its external borrowing.     

Managing critical success factors for IS implementation: A stakeholder engagement and control perspective

Enterprise information systems (IS) implementation is often part of an organization's strategic IT initiatives and requires a large investment of organizational resources, yet may fail due to inadequate management of critical success factors (CSF). Using a revelatory case study of a multi‐partner COTS implementation process by a large Canadian government organization, this research investigates successful management of CSF through optimal stakeholder engagement and a balancing of control configurations. This research identifies four distinct project orientations related to stakeholder engagements—strategic, responsibility, harmony, and persuasion—that can be of significant value in managing CSF and other challenges during implementation and post‐implementation phases. In addition to the identification of a need for control balancing in a multi‐partner IS implementation, three key drivers responsible for triggering control balancing are identified: (a) shared understanding, (b) negative anticipation, and (c) deviation of expectations. Copyright © 2017 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Foreign Exchange Origins of Japan's Economic Slump and Low Interest Liquidity Trap

Japan's macroeconomic problem has yet to be properly diagnosed. Throughout the 1990s, policy makers could not decide on the proper macro economic measures to combat the country's severe economic slump. We propose a unified explanation, with deep historical roots, of why aggregate private demand failed to recover after Japan's stock and real estate bubbles burst in 1991 and deflationary pressure continues. The problem is not purely ‘made in Japan’. It arises from Japan's unbalanced mercantile relationship with the United States. Starting in the early 1970s, numerous trade disputes between the two countries created tensions that were (temporarily) resolved by the yen going ever higher against the dollar up to 1995. In the last two decades, this persistent pressure for the yen to rise was further aggravated by Japan's large current‐account (saving) surpluses as the counterpart of America's large current account (saving) deficits. The legacy is the expectation that trade and financial tensions will recur so that the yen will be higher 10, 20, or 30 years from now –with Japan's (wholesale) price level forced correspondingly lower and nominal interest rates on yen assets remaining more than four percentage points less than those on dollar assets. This fear of yen appreciation, whose timing is erratic and unpredictable, now inhibits private domestic investment by both Japanese firms and households. Our theory also explains why, in the late 1990s, nominal interest rates on short‐term yen assets were compressed toward zero so as to destroy the normal profit margins of the banking system. In this liquidity trap, the Bank of Japan –whose monetary policy has been quite ‘expansionary’–is powerless to stimulate the flagging economy. To spring the liquidity trap, eliminate deflationary pressure, and restore macro economic balance in Japan, the American and Japanese governments must act jointly to quash the expectation that the yen will be higher in the future than it is today.     

When Do Long‐term Imbalances Lead to Current Account Reversals?

We extend the literature on sharp reductions in current account deficits by taking into account not only short‐term determinants, but also the deviation of net foreign assets from their long‐run equilibrium level. First, we analyse the long‐term relationship between net foreign assets and a set of explanatory variables and construct a measure of imbalances. Next, we model current account reversals by incorporating this new measure and compare the predictive power of this model with the baseline specification that does not account for long‐term imbalances. Our new model has a superior performance in and out‐of‐sample, especially when we control for the sign of imbalances. We also find that low net foreign assets do not necessarily lead to sharp reductions in current account deficits; it is rather the situation when they are below their equilibrium level that triggers reversals. Finally, we document that our new measure of net foreign asset imbalances is important only for developing countries, whereas standard models perform well for industrial economies.     

Business policy,ethics and society

This section will cover (a) definition of business policy: strategic decisions in the enterprise; (b) ethical behaviour above and beyond the requirements of the law: what might this involve e.g. in respect of products and markets in which the business is prepared to operate? (c) does business have a responsibility towards ‘society’? For example, should businesses decide without being legally required to do so, to undertake activities which they think are in the national interest even if this may appear to conflict with strictly commercial interests? (d) if ethical/social decisions are required, who is to make them — at what levels of an enterprise — e.g. does the board make them all or are they also expected below board level? This section will also cover: (e) practical examples in the light of changing attitudes towards business and market behaviour in the 1980's and 1990's; (f) implications of attitudes towards corporate crime and of behaviour which may not be illegal but which may be regarded as ‘unacceptable’: this will be discussed with examples from experience in Australia and other countries. The section will first explain the meaning of the phrase ‘business policy’ and will briefly outline the kinds of strategic decision which have to be made in business enterprises. It will go on to consider whether there are things a business ‘ought’ or ‘ought not’ to do even if they are within the law. The section will illustrate these problems with examples in the light of changing attitudes towards business policy and market behaviour in the 1980's and 1990's. It will take into account some recent cases of corporate crime in Australia and elsewhere and also of behaviour which while neither against the law or outside the power of the board, might be thought ‘inappropriate’.     

The Great Recession of 2008: Impact on the Bangladeshi economy and international business implications

This article examines the current global financial crisis (GFC) and its impact on Bangladesh's economy and discusses international business implications for the country within an institution‐based analytical framework. The article finds that the macroeconomy of Bangladesh has shown remarkable resilience in the face of this massive global crisis, and the impact has been minimal and limited to a moderate slowdown of the economy The country thus could be poised for taking advantage of international business opportunities as the global economy begins to recover. Further, JPMorgan's Frontier Five and Goldman Sachs's Next Eleven classification of Bangladesh indicates enormous potential for growth and development. The article suggests that the Bangladeshi diaspora could serve as a connecting hub so that “brain gain” could be achieved through labor migration and remittances. Strategic alliances among home and foreign firms are also important to the future capacity building of the country. However, strategic management in the form of further institutional, structural, and policy reforms are critical in enabling the country to develop an international‐business‐friendly environment conducive to taking advantage of evolving global opportunities and realizing its full potential. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Fiscal divergence, current account divergence and TARGET2 imbalances in the EMU

Diverging fiscal policy paths, housing booms and diverging unit labour costs were driving forces of rising intra-European current account imbalances, which were underpinned by low interest rates. Since the outbreak of the crisis, the adjustment of intra-EMU current account imbalances has been postponed by a rising divergence of TARGET2 balances, as the repatriation of private international credit and deposit flight from the crisis economies is intermediated by central bank credit. Given that this process has brought the Deutsche Bundesbank into a debtor position to the domestic financial system, the article discusses options for liquidity absorption by the Bundesbank to forestall asset price bubbles in Germany.     

From grobal management to glocal management: Latin American perspectives as a counter‐dominant management epistemology

Management is known as a global phenomenon. However, its “global” façade tends to mean that management knowledge and practices are usually created and developed in Western countries—mainly the United States—to be transferred supposedly problem‐free to other locations. This paper discusses how management has spread globally via Americanization, and is therefore a grobal phenomenon. From a Latin American perspective, this transfer can be problematic, especially as it tends to suppress locally developed knowledge and experiences. In denaturalizing grobal management, we propose glocal management as an alternative to the current Anglo‐centric view of the field, and believe this new view can take into account hybridism and local realities. Copyright © 2010 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.