Introduction

This study decomposes the unconditional stock return volatility into two categories: systematic versus idiosyncratic risk, to re-examine the link between size and risk in the banking industry. The feasibility of the model is tested using data for US banks from 1998 to 2007. The evidence uncovered suggests that the practice of size-related diversification obtained with large banks reduces the firm-specific risk, and thus weakens stock return variances. However, rather than eliminating firm-specific risk, it is being transformed into systematic risk. Additionally, our empirical findings can potentially explain why a bank's size-related diversification does not result in a reduction in its unconditional stock return volatility reported in Demsetz and Straha [Historical patterns and recent changes in the relationship between bank size and risk. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 1(2), 13–26 (1995); Diversification, size, and risk at bank holding companies. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29, 300–313 (1997)].     

Diaspora and Development

Jagdish Bhagwati's proposal for a ‘brains tax’ to be levied on the incomes of the diaspora from developing countries residing in the developed countries and the proceeds to be remitted to the countries of origin of the diaspora is well known. In recent years the voluntary contributions or remittances from the diaspora to their countries of origin have often been higher than the aid monies given to these countries. It is now increasingly recognised that the diaspora may have an active role to play in the development process of their countries of origin. They are not only a source of funds; they are also a rich source of skills and know‐how. This paper analyses the potential of the diaspora as agents of change in their countries of origin and argues that the social rate of return to a unit of diaspora investments may be higher than that for a unit of foreign direct investment from non‐diaspora sources.     

Climate Policy‐induced Investments in Developing Countries: The Implications of Investment Risks

1075 (Christoph Böhringer and Andreas Löschel) International climate policy has assigned the leading role in emissions abatement to the industrialised countries while developing countries remain uncommitted to binding emission reduction targets. However, cooperation between the industrialised and the developing world through joint implementation of emission abatement promises substantial economic gains to both parties. In this context, the policy debate on joint implementation has addressed the question of how investment risks to project‐based emission crediting between industrialised countries and developing countries affect the magnitude and distribution of such gains. In our quantitative analysis, we find that the incorporation of country‐specific investment risks induces rather small changes vis‐à‐vis a situation where investment risks are neglected. Only if investors go for high safety of returns is there a noticeable decline in the overall volume of emission crediting and the associated total economic benefits. While the welfare effects of risk incorporation for industrialised countries are unequivocally negative, the implications across developing countries are ambiguous. Whereas low‐risk developing countries attract higher project volumes and benefit from higher effective prices per emission credit compared to a reference scenario without risk, the opposite applies to high‐risk countries. The – politically undesired – shift in comparative advantage of emission abatement against high‐risk, typically least‐developed, countries may become larger if risk‐averse investors perceive large differences in project‐based risks across countries. In this case, only very cheap mitigation projects in high‐risk countries will be realised, driving down the respective country's benefits from emission crediting to the advantage of low‐risk developing countries.     

INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION,INVESTMENT AND BORROWING WITH EXCHANGE RATE RISK AND FUTURES MARKETS

In this paper we consider a multinational firm under exchange rate and interest rate risks in a multiperiod model. We analyze the impact of exchange rate uncertainty and the use of currency futures on the risk-averse firm's decisions about home and foreign production. Without any hedging markets exchange rate risk lowers foreign investment and output. However, when futures markets exist, the separation property holds. Introducing another source of uncertainty, such as the interest rate, which is nondiversifiable, affects the production in both countries, i.e., the separation property does not hold. However, we show that the adverse effect of the missing financial market (to hedge against this additional risk) disappears when international borrowing is available.     

Quantifying Sources of Risk in Global Food Operations and Supply Chain

The food industry plays a significant role in food supply. However, it is increasingly facing a significant number of risks to tackle. This article provides insight into sources and quantification of risk, which can restrict food operations and supply chain performance. Certainly, risks imposed by today's constantly changing global environment makes it imperative for food and agribusiness firms to develop purposeful proactive and predictive risk management for their global supply chains. We proposed the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model to analyze sources of risks attached to the focal firm's global food operations and supply chain. The identified risks were from a review of relevant literature, expert opinions from the focal firm supply chain C‐level executive, and consultants in the food industry. We grouped the identified risks into seven categories and discussed the risk mitigation strategies. We validated the proposed model using a case study involving a focal food and agribusiness firm with global presence. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Leveraging the Diaspora for Africa’s Economic Development

ABSTRACT

African countries need to engage their diasporas in industrialized countries to provide much needed human, social, and financial capital to help with their economic development. For Africa’s economies to successfully transition from their current state of commodity-dominated production to high value-added production, governments in the continent must design and implement strategies to harness their grossly underutilized diaspora in developed countries. For the most part, the diaspora’s contribution to development has been viewed only in terms of remittances that go primarily to support families. In this paper, we provide a broad overview of some of the diaspora friendly policies that can help engage the African diaspora in the economic development of their respective countries of origin (COOs). Governments in the COOs need to move beyond seeing the diaspora as simply a source for remittances, and engage them in a meaningful way to provide them with a sustainable competitive advantage in the global battle for talent. There needs to be a move beyond simple calls to patriotism, and into engagement that leads to a mutually beneficial relationship between the diaspora and its COO. We conclude by pointing out some of the steps that can be taken in this regard to engage with the diaspora in a mutually beneficial relationship.     

Existence of a calibrated regime switching local volatility model

By Gyöngy's theorem, a local and stochastic volatility model is calibrated to the market prices of all European call options with positive maturities and strikes if its local volatility (LV) function is equal to the ratio of the Dupire LV function over the root conditional mean square of the stochastic volatility factor given the spot value. This leads to a stochastic differential equation (SDE) nonlinear in the sense of McKean. Particle methods based on a kernel approximation of the conditional expectation, as presented in Guyon and Henry‐Labordère [Risk Magazine, 25, 92–97], provide an efficient calibration procedure even if some calibration errors may appear when the range of the stochastic volatility factor is very large. But so far, no global existence result is available for the SDE nonlinear in the sense of McKean. When the stochastic volatility factor is a jump process taking finitely many values and with jump intensities depending on the spot level, we prove existence of a solution to the associated Fokker–Planck equation under the condition that the range of the squared stochastic volatility factor is not too large. We then deduce existence to the calibrated model by extending the results in Figalli [Journal of Functional Analysis, 254(1), 109–153].     

Identifying risks in emerging market sovereign and corporate bond spreads

This paper investigates the systematic risk factors driving emerging market (EM) credit risk by jointly modeling sovereign and corporate credit spreads at a global level. We use a multi-regional Bayesian panel VAR model, with time-varying betas and multivariate stochastic volatility. This model allows us to decompose credit spreads and build indicators of EM risks. A key result is that indices of EM sovereign and corporate credit spreads differ because of their specific reactions to global risks (risk aversion, liquidity and US corporate risk). For example, following Lehman's default, EM sovereign spreads ‘decoupled’ from the US corporate market, whereas EM corporates ‘recoupled.’     

Modeling firm specific internationalization risk: An application to banks’ risk assessment in lending to firms that do international business

Drawing on internationalization process theory, we develop a new model for firm-specific internationalization risk assessment. The model shows that firm-specific internationalization risks can be determined from a firm's experiences and from current business activities in a firm's network. Experiential risks are categorized as international, country market, network, or relationship experience risks. Risk assessment in current network activities can be determined from a firm's dependency on a network and from the network's performance and evolution. We apply our model to credit risk assessment by banks and other credit institutions. This article adds to research on financial institutions’ credit risk assessment by focusing on firm-specific internationalization risk assessment, an area that has previously received little attention in the literature. In addition, this article provides a better understanding of risk assessment in the internationalization process, shedding light not only on the risks involved in firms’ commitment to internationalization but also on the risks that banks and other institutions take when they commit by lending to internationalizing firms.     

Emerging Equity Market Volatility

Abstract

This paper considers two emerging markets that are under-researched, Kenya and Nigeria. It offers a comprehensive view of four time properties that emerged from the empirical time series literature on asset returns: (1) the predictability of returns from past observations; (2) the auto-regressive behavior of conditional volatility; (3) the asymmetric response of conditional volatility to innovations; and (4) the conditional variance risk premium. Results of the exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model indicate that asymmetric volatility found in the U.S. and other developed markets also characterized the Nigerian stock exchange. In Kenya, however, the asymmetric volatility coefficient is significant and positive, suggesting that positive shocks increase volatility more than negative shocks of an equal magnitude. The Nairobi Stock Exchange (KSE) returns series report negative but insignificant risk-premium parameters. In Nigeria (NSE), return series exhibit a significant and positive time-varying risk premium. The results also show that expected returns are predictable, that the auto-regressive return parameters (? ₁ ) are significant in both Kenya and Nigeria. Finally, the GARCH parameter (b) is statistically significant, indicating that volatility persistence is present in the two emerging markets studied.     

An empirical comparison of continuous time models of the short term interest rate

This article tests the performance of a wide variety of well-known continuous time models—with particular emphasis on the Black, Derman, and Toy (1990; henceforth BDT) term structure model—in capturing the stochastic behavior of the short term interest rate volatility. Many popular interest rate models are nested within a more flexible time-varying BDT framework that allows us to compare the models and find the proper specification of the dynamics of short rates. The empirical results indicate that the equilibrium models that do not allow the drift and diffusion parameters to vary over time and parameterize the volatility only as a function of interest rate levels overemphasize the sensitivity of volatility to the level of interest rate and fail to model adequately the serial correlation in conditional variances. On the other hand, the GARCH-based arbitrage-free models with time-dependent parameters in the drift and diffusion functions define the volatility only as a function of unexpected information shocks and fail to capture adequately the relationship between interest rate levels and volatility. This study shows that the most successful models in capturing the dynamics of short term interest rates are those that introduce time-dependent parameters to the short rate process and define the conditional volatility as a function of both the interest rate levels and the last period's unexpected news. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 777–797, 1999     

Green intentions under the blue flag: Exploring differences in EU consumers’ willingness to pay more for environmentally‐friendly products

Recent research on consumer social responsibility highlights the need to examine psychological drivers of environmentally‐friendly consumption choices in a global context. This article investigates consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) more for environmentally‐friendly products across 28 European Union (EU) countries, using a sample of 21,514 consumers. A multigroup structural equation modeling analysis reveals significantly different patterns and relationships, in how (a) subjective knowledge about the product's environmental impact, (b) environmental product attitudes, and (c) the perceived importance of the products’ environmental impact influence consumers’ WTP more for environmentally‐friendly products across countries. The hypothesized model predicts WTP for 20 out of 28 countries and the findings show that a “one‐size‐fits‐all” approach is inadequate in capturing the heterogeneity of EU consumers. Hosfstede's cultural dimensions of uncertainty tolerance and individualism explain differences in WTP for environmentally‐friendly products across EU countries. Business, marketing communications, and policy making implications are discussed.     

Building National Competitive Advantage: Rwanda's Lessons from Singapore

Despite its recent tragic history of genocide and continuing threats to political stability, Rwanda has made significant strides in improving its competitive position compared to its African neighbors and to other countries at an equivalent economic level. The Rwandan business and political leadership have explicitly taken Singapore as a model for rapid economic growth, with the aim of positioning Rwanda as a regional hub for transportation and advanced services. This article, based in part on fieldwork conducted in Rwanda by the lead author, ¹ analyzes Rwanda's development strategy using the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness framework and evaluates its potential for success in emulating Singapore's development pathway. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Sovereign Ratings and Oil‐Exporting Countries: The Effect of High Oil Prices on Ratings

We investigate how high and rising oil prices in the 2003–2008 period affected the sovereign ratings of oil‐exporting countries, after controlling for fundamentals. Based on a large dataset of countries from Standard and Poor's and Moody's, we find strong statistical evidence of a large ratings premium – nearly two notches – for those oil‐exporting countries with a large share of net oil revenue to gross domestic product, relative to countries with similar economic fundamentals. We have some limited forecast information from the rating agencies and the effect increases when we include this information, providing further evidence that this ratings premium is not driven by expected improvements in fundamentals. This finding has implications for asset prices in oil‐exporting countries and highlights the risk that in the event of a sharp unanticipated drop in oil prices, sovereign rating downgrades of oil‐exporting countries could be sharper than the deterioration in their economic fundamentals.     

The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Country Attractiveness

This study assesses the impacts of the recent global financial crisis on the relative attractiveness of 125 countries between 2007 2011. Using a strategic model of international expansion that quantifies incorporates countries’ market potential (population size, gross domestic product [GDP] growth, per capita GDP), market risks (economic, political, legal, regulatory), distance (cultural, geographic), it confirms that some countries have become significantly less attractive (Ireland, Greece, Japan, etc.), while others have become much more attractive (Taiwan, Korea, etc.) as expansion markets for international companies. This study underscores the need for a strategic approach to international expansion decisions. The model can be used by business executives as a risk management tool in international expansion decision making. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

World economic situation remains precarious

Global production increased at a rate of just 2% in 1998, half the previous year's growth. The USA and the EMU member countries in particular were spared a recession thanks to robust domestic demand. With continuing volatility on the financial markets, the world economic situation remains precarious.¹ How can we expect the world economy to develop in the next two years?     

The impact of crisis events on the stock returns volatility of international airlines

This paper adopts the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to examine the relationship between the weekly returns of shares of the international airlines in 1996–2010. It also incorporates major international crisis events and observes the influence of different aspects on the volatility of returns of company shares. Different events exhibit significantly different regional volatility impulses in the countries in which the airlines are located. The Asian financial crisis enhances the returns volatility effects of Asian airline companies. The global financial crisis significantly intervenes with the returns volatility of airline companies around the world. The results suggest that major international events may all have risk effects on the returns on the share prices of airlines.     

Information Sensitivity Typology: Mapping the Degree and Type of Risk Consumers Perceive in Personal Data Sharing

Surveys show significant public concern regarding information privacy. To better understand how consumer concerns vary by type of personal data, the authors created a typology of information types based on perceived associated risks. In a national consumer survey, 52 information types were analyzed along four perceived risk categories (physical, psychological, monetary, and social), consumers' overall sensitivity regarding the information, and their willingness to provide it. This resulted in six highly distinctive clusters—Basic Demographics, Personal Preferences, Contact Information, Community Interaction, Financial Information, and Secure Identifiers—organized around similarities in perceived risk profile. Additionally, consumer segmentation analysis shows rank order of cluster risk perceptions to be stable, even when perceived magnitude and overall risk propensities change by segment. This research advances the conversation from an outdated PII/non‐PII framework to a more meaningful, consumer‐based understanding of the perceived risks associated with different types of personal information.     

Greenfield FDI,cross-border M&As,and government size

This study examines the effects of greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) and cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) on government size in host countries of FDI. Using panel data for up to 130 countries for the period from 2003 to 2011, the study specifically tests the compensation hypothesis, suggesting that by increasing economic insecurity, economic openness leads to larger government size. It is found that greenfield FDI increases labour market volatility and thereby economic insecurity while M&As are not significantly associated with labour market volatility. The main results of this study are that greenfield FDI has a robust positive effect on government size, while M&As have no statistically significant effect on government size in the total sample of developed and developing countries, as well as in the sub-samples of developed and developing countries.     

The CBOE S&P 500 three‐month variance futures

In this article, we study the market of the Chicago Board Options Exchange S&P 500 three‐month variance futures that were listed on May 18, 2004. By using a simple mean‐reverting stochastic volatility model for the S&P 500 index, we present a linear relation between the price of fixed time‐to‐maturity variance futures and the VIX². The model prediction is supported by empirical tests. We find that a model with a fixed mean‐reverting speed of 1.2929 and a daily‐calibrated floating long‐term mean level has a good fit to the market data between May 18, 2004, and August 17, 2007. The market price of volatility risk estimated from the 30‐day realized variance and VIX² has a mean value of −19.1184. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:48–70, 2010