Sovereign wealth fund governance and national culture

As sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) are owned and directed by sovereign governments which often have non-economic strategic motives and concomitant lack of transparency, there is much confusion, suspicion, and concern regarding the purpose of their investments. Strategic or non-economic motives for SWF investments are usually conveyed via respective governing boards of directors. Therefore, there is much need for understanding SWF governance. Using data for 49 large SWFs globally, we document significant and economically important evidence of the impact of national culture on SWF governance. Even when controlling for the quality of respective national governance, we find that poorer SWF governance is associated with the cultural dimensions of power distance, individualism, and most likely masculinity; while better SWF governance is associated with long-term orientation, indulgence and uncertainty avoidance. These results are consistent with what others have noted: good governance means different institutional dynamics in different countries (cultures). We also find that SWF governance is negatively associated with greater investment in foreign assets. Policy makers, capital-market participants, and managers will be interested in these results, as SWFs have become large and important global investors.     

Do investment determinants and effects vary across sovereign wealth fund categories? A firm-level analysis

This paper investigates whether determinants and effects of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) investment vary across types of funds. To address this issue, we classify SWFs based on their scope and the origin of wealth. We find that saving and reserve funds and non-commodity funds pick better-performing firms. Furthermore, effects vary among SWF categories. In fact, saving and reserve funds assume a passive role in managing investments, unlike multi-objective and development funds which have detrimental effects on the target companies. As a whole, these findings confirm that heterogeneity of SWFs in terms of how they target firms and activism matters.     

Sovereign wealth funds: National security risks in a global free trade environment

The proliferation of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) has resulted in an unstable political, legal, and regulatory environment for this form of foreign direct investment (FDI). This article explains SWF growth over the last half‐century; discusses issues surrounding SWF “transparency” and host‐country national security risk; reviews the legal and regulatory structures governing FDI in major national economies; examines proposed regulatory approaches to structure the FDI environment; and concludes with a discussion of SWF regulatory policy recommendations addressing corporate governance principles, national security restrictions on equity investment, and investment reciprocity, and suggests recommendations for executives considering engaging an SWF investment partner. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Sovereign Wealth Funds: Investment and Governance Practices

Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) are large, growing, and concentrated investment vehicles, with a current estimated value of U.S. $3 trillion. The combination of low transparency and government ownership has raised questions about political agendas, national security, and transfers of technology. In this article the authors report on the current status of SWFs in terms of investments, regulation, governance, and transparency of activities. They also review some recent studies on SWF investments and their impact on financial markets.     

Gunboats, reputation, and sovereign repayment: lessons from the Southern Confederacy

Many states that formed the Southern Confederacy defaulted on sovereign debt sold in international capital markets during the 1840s. The Confederacy also elected President Jefferson Davis, who openly advocated the repudiation of U.S. states' debts while a member of Congress. Despite its poor credit record, the Confederate government managed to float cotton bonds in England that constituted under 2% of its expenditures. The bonds were largely issued to settle overdue debts with gun contractors who had cut off trade credit. The South serviced the bonds as late as March 1865, a time of domestic hyperinflation and weeks before the fall of Richmond. Although the Confederate experience shows that trade sanctions can promote debt repayment, the gunboat model can only account for a small amount of lending. A reputation or another type of sanction would be necessary to support higher levels of lending in international capital markets.     

国际经济调整中的民营企业走出去战略思考

在经济危机导致各国贸易保护势头日益强化的情况下,我国产品试图通过贸易的方式继续进入美国及其他国家市场,将会变得异常困难。同时,资本及产业输入和输出比例的严重失衡,也让国际资本挤占了国际市场的盈利空间。借助本次危机所形成的国际经济结构调整与洗牌,企业要将直接出口面临的挑战转变为对外直接投资的机遇,这是转型时期企业发展的最佳选择。企业在"走出去"的过程中,要注意抓住特殊时期对企业投资的有利因素,规避各种风险,选择好对外投资的主体、渠道、领域及对象,逐步完成出口为主向出口和投资双向驱动为主的战略转变。     

Sovereign wealth funds investment effects on target firms' competitors

We investigate the impact of sovereign wealth funds acquisitions (SWFs) on the performance of target firms' competitors. We find a positive and significant impact of SWFs acquisitions on target firms' competitors. This means that market participants anticipate value creation in the targets competitors, due to likely expected restructuring activities. Further analysis shows that relatively large rivals, low leveraged rivals, rivals with highly correlated returns with those of their corresponding targets, rivals in less competitive industries show higher abnormal returns upon the acquisition announcement. Our results question the rationality of protectionism as legal barriers to sovereign wealth funds cross-border investments.     

Currency Undervaluation and Sovereign Wealth Funds: A New Role for the World Trade Organization

Two aspects of global imbalances – undervalued exchange rates and sovereign wealth funds – require a multilateral response. For reasons of inadequate leverage and eroding legitimacy, the International Monetary Fund has not been effective in dealing with undervalued exchange rates. This paper proposes new rules in the World Trade Organization to discipline cases of significant undervaluation that are clearly attributable to government action. The rationale for WTO involvement is that there are large trade consequences of undervalued exchange rates, which act as both import tariffs and export subsidies, and that the WTO's enforcement mechanism is credible and effective. The World Trade Organization would not be involved in exchange rate management, and would not displace the International Monetary Fund. Rather, the authors suggest ways to harness the comparative advantage of the two institutions, with the International Monetary Fund providing the essential technical expertise in the World Trade Organization's enforcement process. There is a bargain to be struck between countries with sovereign wealth funds, which want secure and liberal access for their capital, and capital‐importing countries, which have concerns about the objectives and operations of sovereign wealth funds. The World Trade Organization is the natural place to strike this bargain. Its General Agreement on Trade in Services already covers investments by sovereign wealth funds, and other agreements offer a precedent for designing disciplines for these funds. Placing exchange rates and sovereign wealth funds on the trade negotiating agenda may help revive the Doha Round by rekindling the interest of a wide variety of groups.     

Mapping the trading behavior of the middle class in emerging markets: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange

Predicted to grow above 4.9 billion by 2030, with an overall spending capacity of $56 trillion, the rise of the middle class in emerging markets has attracted global practitioner and academic attention. How this new wealth will be invested is a central question; yet our understanding still remains fragmented. Drawing on the literatures of international business, behavioral economics and finance and using high-frequency stock market data, we examine and map the trading behavior of the middle class in Turkey, one of the fastest rising economic powers of the East. We find that middle class traders exhibit discernible differences to professionals, with respect to risk attitudes and stock preferences (e.g. prefer lower-risk, smaller-size and ‘value’ stocks). In addition, while they typically hold small portfolios and tend to realize lower gains than professionals, their role has become considerably influential to the direction of the entire market.     

External Public Debt,Trade Linkages and Contagion During the Eurozone Crisis

Against the backdrop of the contagion literature, the paper analyses the impact of financial and trade linkages on sovereign bond spreads in the Eurozone crisis. Using quarterly data for a sample of EMU countries during the period 2000–13, we estimate fixed‐effect panel models with Driscoll and Kraay standard errors that are robust to general forms of spatial and temporal dependence. Our main results can be summarised as follows: first, we suggest that the ‘sudden stop’ of capital inflow towards the peripheral sovereign debt triggered a re‐segmentation of financial markets and economic systems along national borders, with negative implications for risk‐sharing and the efficient allocation of capital. The ‘home bias’ effect – that is the increase in the share of sovereign debt held by domestic banks – worsened the country‐specific risk because the twin crisis (sovereign and banking) began to be conceived as more closely intertwined within countries than before. Second, the structure of international trade helps to account for the geographic scope of contagion, even after controlling for macroeconomic and fiscal vulnerabilities. Finally, the ‘substitution effect’ of public debt securities of stand‐alone emerging countries has affected more the sovereign spreads in the core than in the periphery.     

民营企业从出口为主向出口、投资双向驱动的转变

由于国际金融危机引致各种贸易保护势头日益强化,我国产品通过贸易的方式进入国际市场变得更加困难;同时,资本及产业输入和输出比例的严重失衡,也让国际资本挤占了国际市场的盈利空间。民营企业如能借助本次国际金融危机所导致的世界经济结构调整,将直接出口面临的挑战转变为对外直接投资的机遇,选择好对外投资的主体、渠道、领域及对象,便可逐步完成从出口为主向出口和投资双向驱动的战略转变。     

Sovereign credit ratings,capital flows and financial sector development in emerging markets

How does the sovereign credit ratings history provided by independent ratings agencies affect domestic financial sector development and international capital inflows to emerging countries? We address this question utilizing a comprehensive dataset of sovereign credit ratings from Standard and Poor's from 1995–2003 for a cross-section of 51 emerging markets. Within a panel data estimation framework, we examine financial sector development and the influence of sovereign credit ratings provision, controlling for various economic and corporate governance factors identified in the financial development literature. We find strong evidence that our sovereign credit rating measures do affect financial intermediary sector developments and capital flows. We find that i) long-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings are important for encouraging financial intermediary development and for attracting capital flows. ii) Long-term local currency ratings stimulate domestic market growth but discourage international capital flows. iii) Short-term ratings (both foreign and local currency denominated) retard all forms of financial developments and capital flows. There are important implications in this research for policy makers to encourage the provision of longer-term credit ratings to promote financial development in emerging economies.     

Private equity,Islamic finance,and sovereign wealth funds in the MENA region

The Middle East and North Africa region has experienced a significant amount of activity in the past few years, despite the worldwide economic problems caused by the subprime crisis. A strong influx of petrodollar reserves, sustainable economic growth, limited reliance on leverage, and limited exposure to the global credit markets have kept the region relatively outside the economic mishaps overwhelming a number of economies, especially in the West. Shariah‐compliant, Islamic private equity funds and the use of sovereign wealth funds as sources of private equity in the region are two important evolutionary developments to watch in the next few years. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Understanding the sovereign credit ratings of emerging markets

This paper identifies the macroeconomic factors behind the sovereign credit ratings of global emerging markets assigned by Standard and Poor's (S&P). The financial integration and globalization of capital markets have facilitated the capital inflows/outflows among countries. Sovereign credit ratings have served as a signal for countries' economic, financial and political situations. Ratings are very important in the sense that they attract capital inflow and investments. This is especially vital for emerging markets. Although the rating agencies do not explicitly reveal their methodologies, it is possible to guess the effects of several variables on ratings by using various econometric models. Concerning the heavy criticisms on rating agencies' performances, we wish to examine the sovereign credit ratings within a specific country-category. In this essay, we study the effects of macroeconomic factors on the sovereign ratings of emerging markets. Using several approaches, we find that the most relevant factors are Budget Balance/GDP, GDP per capita, Governance Indicators and Reserves/GDP. Moreover, our model predicts up to 93% of all credit rating levels. Interestingly, we obtain that S&P's evaluation of the sovereign credit rating for Turkey performs poorly, especially in the highest rating levels.     

Shopping for Human Rights. An Introduction to the Special Issue

Globalization, free trade, and individualization have opened up a worldwide marketplace for trading goods. The fair trade movement and other political consumerist endeavours view consumers as important active holders of responsibility for global welfare. Civil society and governments strive to teach consumers how political consumerism can be used as a push factor to change market capitalism. The market itself can also create an interest in political consumerism and, thereby, teach consumers about the political responsibility embedded in their shopping choices. When this happens, the market works as a pull factor for securing human rights. Questions can be raised about the significance of political consumers as a way to solve complex global problems. Political consumerism may be a fair-weather option that loses its attractiveness in times of downward private and corporate economic spirals. Parts of the fair trade movement believe that there are problems with sole reliance on voluntary consumer choice and using personal money and private capital to solve human rights problems by shopping them away. The exponential growth of voluntary codes of corporate conduct and labelling schemes has also created contradictory practices, incoherence in efforts, and superficial changes or what activists call “sweatwash.” Increasingly, many actors call on international law to create new standards that apply direct human rights obligations on corporations.     

Teaching the Linkages Between the International Credit and Foreign Exchange Markets

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a teaching model which provides an analytical framework that encourages students to think about economic events in a global context. It ties the international credit and foreign exchange markets together and shows how international capital flows represent the crucial linkage between them. This model is primarily a teaching tool which illustrates how changes in monetary and fiscal policies in one country, say Japan, impact world interest rates, exchange rates, and trade and capital imbalances for other countries. This approach can also be used to illustrate the impacts of changes in savings and investment behavior by businesses and households, as well as central bank interventions.     

Mercosur: fostering regional economic integration

Emerging multinationals are a relatively new phenomena in the global trade scene. Brazilian companies involved in international business, numbering over 900, are present in a number of industries in several markets around the world. The development of Mercosur has created an environment conducive to the increasing involvement of Brazilian companies in overseas markets. This article discusses the relationship among economic integration, flows of foreign direct investment, and firm strategies in the Mercosur region, with respect to the Brazilian experience. ©1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The impact of sovereign wealth funds on global financial markets

If sovereign wealth funds act similarly to private investors and thus allocate foreign assets according to market capitalisation rather than liquidity considerations, official portfolios reduce their “bias” towards the major reserve currencies — the US dollar and the euro. As a result, more capital flows “downhill“ from rich to less wealthy economies. In this scenario, the euro area and the United States would be subject to net capital outflows while Japan and the emerging markets would attract net capital inflows. The potential implications of a rebalancing of international capital flows for stock prices, interest rates and exchange rates remain uncertain, however. The authors wish to thank Marcel Fratzscher for excellents comments. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank.     

A re-examination of the relation between democracy and international trade

Scholars and policy makers believe that democracy will bring prosperity through integration into the global economy via increased international trade. Existing research is plagued by methodological problems that obscure the empirics and avoid the theoretical problem of why democracies may or may not trade more. In this paper, I seek to correct these shortcomings. I test two theories as to why democracies might trade more. First, political freedom may be correlated with economic freedom, thus prompting higher levels of economic activity, thereby driving states to trade more. Second, democracy implies higher quality governance either through institutions or policy making procedures. To test the impact of democracy on trade and the potential transmission mechanisms, I utilize a bilateral gravity trade model covering approximately 150 countries from 1950 to 1999, with fixed effects for time, importers, and exporters. I find the theory that democracy, and many of its components, promotes international trade unconvincing. The coefficients are the theoretically correct sign; however, many are statistically or economically insignificant and fragile to changes in modeling or data. Economic freedom does not have the expected impact on international trade levels, but quality of governance variables have broad economic and statistical significance.     

The role of sovereign wealth funds in global financial intermediation

Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have experienced tremendous growth lately. Their combined wealth is currently estimated at $3 trillion, and the International Monetary Fund estimates that they will continue to grow to $10 trillion by 2012. SWFs' recent investments in the United States and Europe have been the focus of media and government scrutiny, given that a number of SWFs are not transparent, and emanate from authoritarian regimes, which are not political allies of the West. In this article, we provide a comprehensive overview, along with detailed summary statistics on various aspects of SWFs. We also provide recommendations to facilitate SWFs' role in global financial intermediation. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.