电影产业供给侧结构性改革思路研究

近几年,我国电影产业蓬勃发展,然而电影产业快速发展的背后隐藏的问题却不容忽视。供给侧结构性改革侧重生产要素的供给和有效利用,扩大有效供给,推进结构调整。基于供给侧结构性改革视角,探讨中国电影产业发展存在的问题及影响因素,并从重视对电影技术人才的培养、完善多展次资本市场体系、充分利用"互联网+"、提高创意能力、加大对中国电影价值趋向的扶持及完善基础公共电影放映服务供给等六个方面提出中国电影产业供给侧结构性改革的思路。     

国际贸易冲击效应与中国宏观经济波动:1978～2005

本文将国际贸易对中国宏观经济波动的影响分解为供给冲击、国外需求冲击和名义冲击三个方面,通过构建结构向量自回归模型,对改革开放以来中国宏观经济波动的贸易冲击效应进行经验检验,识别了国际贸易结构性冲击,并考察了各种冲击对中国经济波动的动态效应。研究结果表明:预测期内,在国际贸易三种结构性冲击中,国外需求冲击与供给冲击能在较大程度上解释中国经济波动,所不同的是前者为正效应,后者为负效应,前者短期效应较明显,而后者长期效应较明显;名义变量(贸易条件)对经济波动的冲击效应则不显著。随着中国汇率制度的改变,贸易条件冲击成为影响宏观经济波动的主要因素,应引起重视。     

供给侧改革驱动国企管理会计创新发展

"十三五"规划再次强调国家与企业必须推进供给侧结构性改革,以创新驱动国家经济、企业经济发展。尤其是在"互联网+"、智能制造时代下,必须通过供给侧结构性改革实现企业产业升级。但是在企业实践中,目前我国经济发展面临着两方面约束,即国企竞争力不足与产业结构转化升级动力不足;在理论研究中,国企管理与供给侧结构性改革的内在逻辑仍然不明晰。且管理会计一直是企业强化内部竞争优势的关键所在,因此明晰管理会计与供给侧结构性改革间的内在关系是实现企业创新发展的首要途径。文章基于梳理和归纳国企管理会计与供给侧结构性改革间的内在逻辑,着重研究供给侧结构性改革对国企管理会计的影响和如何实现其创新发展。期望文章研究结论对新时代下国企转型升级、强化竞争优势有所启示。     

我国产业发展的五年过往与“十三五”时期重要选项

服务业成为我国国民经济中的最大产业,培育制造业与服务业"双引擎"亟待引起重视。经济增长速度下行的压力依然较大,结构性因素对产业发展的影响值得高度关注。推进供给侧结构性改革的重要性迅速凸显,但准确把握其内涵、科学选择推进方式更为关键。"十三五"推进我国产业发展需要注意深化改革开放,着力提升制度红利;分类施策,科学选择不同产业推进供给侧结构性改革的重点;统筹谋划,培育鼓励创新创业的环境;因势利导,促进产业融合发展;未雨绸缪,有效防范经济社会运行和产业发展的风险。     

辽宁:发布推进农业供给侧结构性改革实施意见

辽宁省政府日前发布推进农业供给侧结构性改革实施意见,明确了辽宁省农业现代化发展目标。意见指出,到2020年,通过推进农业供给侧结构性改革,农业产业结构将更加优化,农业与二、三产业交叉融合的现代产业体系基本形成,优质农产品供给能力将有效提升,农业综合效益和市场竞争能力将显著增强。     

以市场、消费需求为导向的 农业供给侧改革

2015年我国粮食喜获"十二年丰",但却带来粮食库存量大幅度增加、粮食价格明显下跌以及相联系的卖粮难.2015年12月下旬召开的中央农村工作会议提出的农业"去库存",其中粮食"去库存"是重要方面.并在此基础上提出加快消化过大的粮食库存量以及通过农业供给侧结构性改革,引领农业新走向.2016年1月28日发布的新世纪以来中央的第13个一号文件首次提出用新的发展理念破解"三农"问题,推进农业供给侧结构性改革.如果说以往供不应求时代所采取的需求侧管理,更多地是着眼于解决短期性问题,那么,经济新常态下的供给侧结构性改革,更多地是着眼于解决长期性问题.     

农业供给侧改革下我国粮食安全问题研究

农业供给侧改革是我国经济发展新常态下农业发展的关键环节,而粮食供给侧改革在一定程度上影响着农业供给侧改革的进程。供给侧改革实质上是结构性的改革,虽然我国近年来粮食供需持平,但出现粮食的产量、库存和进口数量"三量齐增"现象,且我国粮食产量十二连增。此时,我国不仅要追求粮食数量,更要求我国粮食供给侧结构性改革,去库存、降成本、补短板是解决我国粮食安全问题的必要方案。     

调整优化农牧业产业结构和布局着力推进农牧业供给侧结构性改革

近年来,我区粮食生产实现了"十三连丰",连续跨上2250万吨、2500万吨和2750万吨大关;畜牧业实现了"十二连稳", 2016年牧业年度全区牲畜存栏达到1.36亿头只,年均增长4.7%;"十二五"时期, 农牧民人均可支配收入先后跨越了6000元、7000元、8000元、9000元、10000元大关,全区农牧业和农村牧区发展取得显著成就.但也存在着一些矛盾和难题,突出表现为供给侧结构性矛盾.我区玉米种植面积和产量分别占全区粮食总播面积和产量的60%和80%,羊存栏占全区牲畜总头数的79%;玉米"一粮独大"、羊"一畜独大"的单一种养结构明显.受国内消费需求增长放缓以及进口冲击等因素影响,农畜产品供给数量、品种和质量未契合消费者需要,造成农畜产品供求结构性失衡.解决这些问题,就必须着力推进农牧业供给侧结构性改革,侧结构性改革关键是调整优化我区农牧业产业结构和布局.     

汪洋:农业供给侧结构调整的重点任务

正推进农业供给侧结构性改革,是"三农"领域的一场深刻变革,关系农业的长远发展,在方向性问题上不能出大的偏差,必须守住三条底线。一是确保粮食生产能力不降低。保障国家粮食安全是头等大事,任何时候都不能放松。推进农业供给侧结构性改革,要保持粮食生产总体稳定,不能形成调减粮食生产的普遍预期和共振效应。要积极实施藏粮于地、藏粮于技战略,粮食产量在年度间可以有波动,但产能必须保持稳定并巩固提高。二是确保农民增收势头不逆     

供给侧结构性改革背景下我国航空产业路向研究

新常态经济下,中国政府优化升级经济结构,开展供给侧结构性改革.为抓好改革契机,促进中国航空产业的进一步发展,本文将航空产业发展与供给侧改革政策环境相结合,从供给侧结构性改革的视角,探索我国航空产业在供给侧结构性改革背景下路向选择,提出只有通过产业结构升级、要素合理分配和制度、金融体制变革才能实现我国航空产业的稳定发展.     

基于供给侧视角的产业价值链创新及有效供给研究

供给侧改革提出在适度扩大总需求的同时,着力加强供给侧结构性改革,提高供给体系的质量和效率。对产业价值链上的核心企业和合作企业的合作开展研究,认为核心企业在合作过程中不仅仅为了合作过程中一般的期望收益,更是从产业价值链提升、产业价值链价值实现等战略目标出发来获得份额保证,本文认为合作关系依赖于合作双方信任度,同时认为合作时间长短、创新保护、组织模式和能级差异等都是直接影响合作效率高低的因素。     

长江经济带高端服务业创新发展研究--基于供给侧改革的视角

高端服务业具有强大的产业外溢效应,它是当前中国服务业进行供给侧改革的必然选择。高端服务业是长江经济带核心竞争力的展现。长江经济带作为中国新一轮改革开放中的门户和窗口,其产业发展由要素驱动调整为创新驱动。通过创新增加有效的高端供给,促进供给侧改革,实现产业结构的优化升级。本文以2000—2018年长江经济带11个省市作为研究样本,分析表明技术创新引起了产业结构的升级调整,并且研发支出、人力资本、金融集聚、居民消费和对外开放等因素都会对高端服务业发展有推动促进作用。技术进步可以引起服务业内部结构的改变,使得服务满足市场需求的能力不断增强。增加高端服务业的有效供给,满足居民消费升级的需要,有利于深化供给侧改革,调整产业结构和消费结构,让长江经济带成为中国经济发展的重要引擎。     

福建省外贸行业供给侧改革效应分析

供给侧改革正式提出以来,全国各地掀起了供给侧改革的热潮,它成为经济发展过程中的焦点。经过几年的改革发展,供给侧改革在运行中颇有成效,福建省作为改革开放的前沿省份,也取得了明显的改革效果。而外贸行业作为福建省的主要行业之一,增速相较于福建省的GDP来说是比较平缓的。为了了解供给侧改革为福建省外贸行业的发展带来怎样的效应,采用巴拉萨模型和逐步回归法进行实证分析,发现:供给侧改革引起的是贸易转移效应;在进出口贸易结构改革中,一般贸易、进料加工贸易、保税监管场所进出境货物、海关特殊监管区域物流货物和设备、来料加工装配贸易的改革效应较为突出;而在外资的投资结构方面,服务业与工业是外商直接投资结构性改革的重要影响因素。     

Competitiveness and Efficiency of the Banking Sector and Economic Growth in Egypt

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of financial reforms on competitiveness and production efficiency of the banking sector, as well as the short‐term and long‐term impact on economic growth, in Egypt during 1992–2007. The results suggest that the reforms have a positive and significant effect on competitiveness and production efficiency. Also, the evidence shows that state‐owned banks are generally less competitive than private banks and foreign banks are less competitive than domestic banks. The average x‐inefficiency of Egyptian banks is around 30 per cent, which is comparable to those reported for other African countries. Finally, there is evidence to suggest a significant relationship between financial bank productive efficiency and economic growth in the short run but not in the long run. Overall, the results support the argument for continuing the financial sector reform programme in Egypt.     

The impacts of market power on power grid efficiency: Evidence from China

Since 1980s, China has experienced a series of reforms to support the development of electricity industry, and the latest one is in 2015. The essence of this new reform is to improve efficiency and lower energy cost. However, China's electricity market has its particularity. The “provinces as entities” is the main regulation frame in China's electricity sector. The operation of the electricity industry can be seen as a game result and interest compromise between the local government and grid companies, and this “win-win exchange” regulation failure leads to grid market power. The profit mode of the grid enterprises will be gradually changed with the deepening of new electricity reform. How to regulate electricity transmission and distribution sector and improve grid efficiency becomes a crucial problem to address. This paper aims to examine the relationship between market power and power grid efficiency. We calculate the unconditional and conditional efficiency of grid companies by applying a conditional slack-based measure (SBM) model. The empirical results show that grid efficiency is at a low level and the indicators differ among provinces and regions. Moreover, market power indeed has significant negative effects on power grid efficiency. These findings provide some insightful references for the future development of China's power industry and electricity reform.     

产业结构升级、能源效率与绿色发展的影响研究

基于SBM-GML指数模型测算中国30个省级地区绿色全要素生产率,衡量中国经济绿色发展状况,采用2005—2020年30个省级地区数据所构成的动态面板SYS-GMM模型,并结合中介效应模型,研究产业结构升级、能源效率对绿色发展的影响及作用机制。研究发现：产业结构升级对绿色发展的影响呈“U”型曲线关系,即随着产业结构升级水平的提高,绿色发展会表现出下降-上升的变化趋势；能源效率提升对绿色发展具有正向的促进作用；能源效率在产业结构升级对绿色发展的影响过程中具有显著的中介效应。据此建议：以供给侧结构性改革推动资源禀赋的产业结构升级,因地制宜实施产业节能减排政策；发展新型清洁能源,优化能源消费结构,促进经济绿色发展。     

Exchange rate volatility and agricultural trade under policy reforms in South Africa

Decades of government intervention have helped develop the South African agriculture sector to its present state. Policy reforms have included trade and exchange rate policies to increase the country's international competitiveness, reduce poverty and promote economic growth. These reforms are facilitating the growth in agricultural trade and South Africa's reintegration into the global economy. Annual agricultural exports and imports have increased. This paper uses annual data and a vector error-correction model to investigate the supply and demand relationships for agricultural trade flows in South Africa during the past four decades. The results show that prices, real exchange rates, domestic production capacity and real incomes have significant impacts on the country's agricultural trade. In particular, exchange rate volatility has negative impacts. This cannot be viewed solely as an exogenous source of macroeconomic instability in South Africa, as domestic policies play a crucial role in influencing the movement of exchange rates.     

An Empirical Study of OEM in Taiwan's Apparel Industry

Abstract

This paper has examined the effectiveness of the original equipment manufacturing (OEM) system in Taiwan's apparel industry from the perspective of international competitiveness. For that purpose, this study uses the following three definitions as the dependent variables in the empirical analyzes: namely, the ratio of apparel's export value to real gross domestic product (GDP); apparel's export value per unit of labor cost; and trade specialization index of Taiwan's apparel industry. The indices constructed for statistical analysis in this study illustrate clearly that international competitiveness of Taiwan's apparel industry has deteriorated from 1989 to 2005. In addition, in order to clarify those factors that have influenced the fall of international competitiveness, this study identifies three important factors—namely, wage, labor productivity, and the real effective exchange rate (REER)—and four structural and policy dummies, and then conducted multiple regressions to clarify their statistical relations with each of the dependent variable. The analytical findings show that the Taiwanese apparel industry has lost its attractiveness as an OEM production base because of the rise of wages and the fall of labor productivity. In addition, our findings show that the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) in terms of REER does not influence the movement of international competitiveness in Taiwan's apparel industry.     

服务业改革研究回顾与前瞻:1949—2019年

新中国成立以来,对新中国服务业改革的研究伴随我国服务业改革实践进程逐渐得到丰富完善,研究与实践之间呈现互为影响、互为促进的关系,具有明显的问题导向和时代发展特征。服务业改革的相关研究可分为六个阶段:1949—1978年:服务业改革的初步探索;1978—1984年:就业和需求压力下服务业改革的再认识;1984—1992年:增长压力推动下的服务业改革思想大解放;1992—2001年:财政压力推动下的服务业市场化改革研究;2001—2012年:服务业开放背景下的服务业改革新突破;2012年至今:新时代服务业改革研究再出发。展望未来,服务业改革的相关研究应关注新应用、新业态的发展趋势,遵循创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享的发展方向,深化服务业供给侧结构性改革研究,重视网络化时代服务业治理改革问题。     

China's soft budget constraint on the demand-side undermines its supply-side structural reforms

China's growth rate has been declining every year since 2010, from 10.6% to 6.7% in 2016, and the IMF expects it to drop further, to 5.8% in 2021. Expert opinion on what to do has ranged widely. The optimists view cyclical factors to be the cause of the downturn, and suggest macro-stimulus as the cure. The pessimists identify supply-side distortions to be the cause, and recommends comprehensive structural reform. We argue that the existence of the soft-budget constraint guarantees the creation of excess capacity and zombie firms, and that the correct demand-side supplement to supply-side structural reform should be the termination of the soft-budget constraint and not the implementation of macro-stimulus. Correction of the distortion in the composition and size of investment will render the composition of output to match the composition of consumer demand, and put the economy on a sustainable growth path that is more consumption-oriented.