Social security,saving, and macroeconomics

Arguing within the framework of a life-cycle hypothesis of consumption of the individual household, Martin Feldstein has claimed that a pay-as-you-go, unfunded social-security system implies a private-sector perception of wealth which both depresses private saving and raises aggregate consumption. But the effects in a macro-economic context are not the same. With less than full employment, perceived increments to private wealth in social security or any other government obligations should increase current and planned future consumption and saving, raising employment and output. With full employment, as long as monetary policy is appropriately accommodating, such increments to wealth should raise prices but leave all real variables, including capital accumulation, unaffected. Increases in social-security wealth would merely substitute for real private wealth in the form of explicit government bonds. Econometric estimates from corrected U.S. data on social security, public debt, income, and employment are consistent with these hypotheses.     

国债融资能否影响居民消费需求——基于城镇居民经验数据的实证分析

“传统的政府债务观点”与“李嘉图等价观点”对国债融资的消费效应存在很大的争议.本文基于生命周期假说,将国债幻觉引入基本消费函数,区分私人部门持有的国债资产和其他资产两部分,运用中国宏观经济数据实证分析了国债对城镇居民消费的影响.实证结果表明:国债对城镇居民具有一定的“财富效应”;人均可支配收入仍是居民消费的基础;其他金融资产对城镇居民具有“负”的财富效应,而住房资产对城镇居民而言具有“正”的财富效应.     

MEASUREMENT OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN CANADA

The only periodic data available in Canada on the asset holdings and net worth of the household sector are data collected through a series of household surveys originally initiated in 1954. Some limited data on the holdings of financial claims by the personal and unincorporated business sector are available from flow of funds work. Data are unavailable for estimation from estate tax returns.
The scope of the surveys has been expanded substantially so that the most recent survey obtained a very comprehensive list of asset holdings. The experience with Canadian surveys has been similar to that of other countries; surveys appear to underestimate asset holdings although the estimates are more reliable for widely held assets than for assets with a very skewed distribution. Nevertheless, the surveys appear to trace the accumulated distribution of personal savings over time to a considerable degree and provide useful cross-sectional trend data.
Canadian data show that wealth is more unequally distributed among family units than is income although wealth appears to be more equally distributed between income groups than is income. Wealth is also very unequally distributed within the same income group. Over time, there appears to have been some movement towards a more equal distribution of asset holdings between income groups.     

Chinese overseas M&A performance and the Go Global policy1

It is well known that government plays an important role in the business activities of Chinese firms. Less certain is the effect this influence has on the wealth of those firms’ shareholders. We contribute to the literature by analysing stock market reactions to announcements by Chinese firms of overseas mergers and acquisitions (OMAs). OMAs are of particular interest because there can exist a conflict between the interests of the public sector in acquiring overseas assets, and the interests of the private sector in maximizing shareholder wealth. Our main dataset consists of 213 observations of 157 OMA events that occurred between 1994 and 2009, using share market returns from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and US markets. The aggregation of share price data across multiple markets, and the listing of firms in multiple exchanges, raise econometric issues for the standard event‐study methodology. To address these, we use a new, feasible generalized least squares (GLS) procedure developed by Gu and Reed (2012) . On the basis of an analysis using both aggregated and disaggregated samples, and of daily and cumulative abnormal returns, we find consistent evidence that (i) Chinese OMAs have not lowered the wealth of shareholders of Chinese acquiring firms, and (ii) shareholders of Chinese acquiring firms have not fared worse under under China's ‘Go Global’ policy of encouraging outward investment by Chinese firms.     

THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD DISPOSABLE WEALTH IN THE UNITED STATES

In this study, new estimates are presented of the size distribution of household wealth in the U.S. in 1969. Compared to previous studies, its major advance is the inclusion of all marketable or discretionary household assets and liabilities and their alignment with national balance sheet totals. Household disposable wealth (HDW) is defined as the sum of all marketable or fungible assets held by households less liabilities. The Gini coefficient for HDW is 0.72, the share held by the richest one percent of households is 31 percent, and the share held by the top five percent is 49 percent. There is, however, a large variation in the concentration of different household assets. The Gini coefficient is 0.30 for household durables and inventories, 0.69 for equity in owner-occupied housing, 0.94 for bonds and securities, and 0.98 for corporate stock. HDW is then divided into two mutually exclusive components. The first, called "life-cycle wealth," is defined as the sum of equity in owner-occupied housing, durables, household inventory, demand deposits and currency, and the cash value of life insurance and pensions less consumer debt. This form of wealth tends to be accumulated over the life-cycle for either consumption, liquidity, or retirement purposes. The second, called "capital wealth," is the sum of time and savings deposits, bonds and securities, corporate stock, business and investment real estate equity, and trust fund equity. Life-cycle wealth is substantially less concentrated than capital wealth. The Gini coefficient for it is 0.59, while that for capital wealth is 0.88. Moreover, among the lower wealth groups, over 80 percent of household wealth takes the form of life-cycle wealth, whereas among the top wealth groups the proportion is under 20 percent. The results suggest substantially different savings motivations between the two groups.     

AFTERMATH OF THE THRIFT CRISIS: BALANCING THE ECONOMY'S BOOKS

The thrift crisis has presented the federal government with a cleanup bill of unparalleled magnitude. Estimates of the present-value cost range from $90 billion to $140 billion. Most observers acknowledge that the economic cost of the crisis already has occurred in the form of lost investment opportunities and a lower capital stock. Fewer acknowledge, however, that full payment of the cost can be made only through a reduction in private sector claims to wealth so as to match the misuse of deposits and soured loans made by thrifts. Some of that reduction has occurred through equity write-downs in businesses and thrifts, but much of the necessary reduction has yet to occur. The necessary reduction constitutes an increased tax burden.
The thrift insolvencies, coupled with deposit insurance and bankruptcy of the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation (FSLIC), threw the economy's books out of balance: Claims on real assets in the form of insured deposits exceeded the value of assets owned by thrifts and insurance reserves of the FSUC. In the absence of deposit insurance, a write-down of claims would have occurred through the market mechanism and the bankruptcy courts. In the presence of deposit insurance, the write-down must be through taxation and the political mechanism. Recently enacted legislation will effect the writedown by spreading the taxation over time through debt finance, relying primarily on future taxes to service the debt. The desirability of debt finance hinges on whether the legislation also will prevent a recurrence of future crises. Critics maintain that prevention must entail reform of deposit insurance.     

PUBLIC ENTERPRISES AND PRIVATIZATION

During the past two decades, the Singapore economy has performed remarkably well. Its achievement has often been cited as an economic miracle for a 600-square kilometre city nation without resources except its three million inhabitants. Public enterprises have contributed much to this achievement. They have been so successful in competing with the private sector that there have been some criticisms against the dominance of government in business. Several major government companies have been privatized and listed on the local stock exchange. Preparations have been made for commercially viable statutory boards to become private enterprises. The government will play a catalytic and supportive role and refrain from local competition. Its new emphasis will be on internationalizing the economy through joint ventures in informational technology and telecommunication industries where the local private sector lacks the resources.     

A SYNTHETIC ESTIMATE OF THE NATIONAL WEALTH OF JAPAN 1885–1973*

This article present estimates, in current prices, of the national wealth of Japan and of about a dozen components for twelve benchmark dates between 1885 and 1973, the distance ranging, with one exception, from five to twelve years. The estimates are derived by a combination of (a) Ohkawa's perpetual inventory estimates of reproducible fixed assets for the period from 1885 to 1940 and Economic Planning Agency censuses for 1950 to 1965, roughly extrapolated to 1973; with (b) estimates of other components of national wealth (land, inventories, consumer durables and net foreign assets) taken for the pre-war period chiefly from census-type data and derived for the postwar period from miscellaneous, mainly official, sources. As in most countries the current value of Japan's national wealth increased until World War II considerably more slowly than its national product, which expanded with extraordinary rapidity. In the postwar period, however, the ratio showed a slight upward trend reaching by 1973 fully 3 1/2. The ratio of all reproducible assets to national product showed a similar pattern at a lower level, reaching 2 1/2 in 1973. In contrast the ratio of so-called productive assets (non-residential buildings, equipment and inventories) failed to show a definite secular trend remaining between 1.5 and 2.2 at all but one benchmark date. Changes in the structure of national wealth over the past century were pronounced, but very different before and after World War II. Up to the 1940's, the share of land declined sharply from about one-half to less than one-fourth, to the benefit primarily of producer durables and non-residential structures. In the last quarter of a century, in contrast, the extraordinary rise in urban land prices brought the share of land in national wealth back to one-third (though the share of agricultural land continued to decline rapidly), while that of producer and consumer durables continued to increase.     

TRENDS IN AGGREGATE HOUSEHOLD WEALTH IN THE US., 1900–83

New estimates of aggregate household wealth for the U S. covering selected years in the period from 1900 to 1983 are presented. I find that marketable wealth per capita grew at 1.46 percent per year in real terms over the 1900–83 period, while real wealth per household grew at 0.81 percent per year. However, the growth rate was not uniform over the period, with the rates high during the 1900–29 and the 1949–69 periods, and slow during the other years. Moreover, real per capita wealth actually increased more slowly than real per capita disposable income and real per capita GNP over the century. I also find dramatic changes in the composition of household wealth over the century. In particular, both tangibles and fixed claim assets increased relative to total assets over the period from 1900 to 1983, while equities fell from about half to a quarter. Owner-occupied housing increased only moderately as a proportion of assets, from 17 percent in 1900 to 20 percent in 1983. Unincorporated business equity fell from over a third of total assets to 12 percent. Among financial assets, the biggest relative growth occurred in deposits in financial institutions, which grew from 8 percent in 1900 to 22 percent in 1983. Corporate stock had the most volatile behavior in the household portfolio, growing from 13 percent of total assets in 1900 to 27 percent in 1929, falling to 10 percent in 1949, rising to 22 percent in 1965, and then falling to 11 percent by 1983. Debt as a proportion of total assets rose from 5 percent in 1900 to 16 percent in 1983. Finally, both pension reserves and social security wealth increased relative to marketable assets from virtually zero in 1900 to 12 and 48 percent, respectively.     

财政政策、货币政策与国外经济援助

本文通过把国外经济援助分成直接对私人的经济援助和直接对政府的经济援助来讨论这两类经济援助对政府财政政策和货币政策的影响。我们发现对私人的经济援助的增加可以使得私人消费水平和政府公共消费水平增加 ,但是它也导致政府收入税税率和通货膨胀率的提高 ;另一方面 ,对政府的经济援助增加可以使得均衡时的私人资本存量、私人消费水平和政府公共消费水平增加 ,同时可以使得均衡时的收入税税率和通货膨胀率下降。     

A Comparison of PIM Estimates with Direct Stock Information for Dwellings

One of the major sources of uncertainty in capital stock estimates stems from the use of the perpetual inventory method (PIM) in all the cases where direct stock information is not available. In the Danish capital stock estimates, it has been possible to dispense with the PIM as far as buildings are concerned. Instead, an administrative register of buildings is used together with a property register and the business register to produce an exhaustive enumeration of practically all buildings in the economy broken down by industry and sector. For the most important type of buildings, namely dwellings, the paper compares direct stock estimates derived by multiplying physical quantities (square meters) by the replacement prices per square meter with those that would result from applying the PIM to historical investment series. Dwellings are by far the most important non-financial assets in most developed economies.     

中国发展私人银行业务的策略研究

私人银行是以财富管理为核心,向拥有高净资产的私人客户提供的一种个性化的高端金融服务。近些年中国的富裕阶层迅速扩大,资产管理需求强劲,私人银行业务正越来越显现出巨大的增长潜力。随着中国金融业的全面开放,具有丰富经验的外资银行也瞄准了拥有巨大潜力的中国私人银行业务市场,私人银行业务成为中外资银行竞争的焦点。由于中国相关法律法规的缺失和中国商业银行自身所存在的种种问题,中国银行开展私人银行业务尚面临着许多的困难和挑战。因此,在借鉴国外银行开展私人银行业务的经验的基础上,通过分析中国私人银行业务发展的必要性和可行性以及现阶段存在的问题,提出中国私人银行业务的发展策略。     

ESTIMATES OF HOUSEHOLD SECTOR WEALTH FOR SOUTH AFRICA, 1970–2003

Market values of components of household sector wealth are important explanatory variables for aggregate consumer expenditure and household debt in macro-econometric models. We construct the first coherent set of the main elements of household-sector balance sheet estimates at market value for South Africa. Our quarterly estimates derive from published data on financial flows, and other capital market data, often at book value. Our methods rely, where relevant, on accumulating flow of funds data using appropriate benchmarks, and, where necessary, converting book to market values using appropriate asset price indices. Relating asset to income ratios for various asset classes to asset price movements and other features of the economic environment, throws light on the changing composition of household sector wealth. Most striking are the relative rise in the value of pension wealth and the trend decline of directly held securities, the decline and recent recovery of housing wealth, and the rise in household debt and concomitant decline of liquid assets from the early 1980s to the late 1990s.     

PROBLEMS OF A CENSUS OF NATIONAL WEALTH

This paper is essentially a summary of the book Measuring the Nation's Wealth (Volume 29, Studies in Income and Wealth, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1964), which is the report of study directed by the author. The purpose o f the study was to assess the problems and possibilities of conducting a national census of real wealth as a basis for continuing wealth and balance sheet estimates for the U.S. economy, by major sector.
It is stressed that the balance sheets and wealth estimates should be designed as a consistent part of an integrated system of national income accounts. Thus, valuation (at market prices and/or depreciated replacement costs), sectoring, and type-of-asset detail in the basic data and derived estimates should be compatible with the flow estimates contained in the economic accounts. Consistency of stock and flow estimates facilitates analysis of inter-relationships, and is helpful in the estimation process.
It is recommended that in the U.S. asset data by broad categories be collected as part of the recurring economic censuses and other reporting systems, but that detail on fixed reproducible assets (construction and equipment) at cost, by year or period of acquisition, be obtained from a small sample of respondents in each industry. The detail would be useful in its own right, and also permit revaluation of the assets by use of price indexes and depreciation rates to a current depreciated replacement cost basis. Where feasible, respondent estimates of market values would also be obtained.
The proposal is thus a compromise between the Japanese 1955 sample survey of assets, and the detailed wealth inventory of the U.S.S.R. which was begun in 1959. Preliminary work is now underway in the U.S. federal statistical agencies to expand collection of asset data, and to prepare comprehensive wealth estimates in the framework of the national income accounts.     

Economic transition and private-sector labor: Evidence from urban China

This paper studies the transition of labor from the state sector to the infant private sector in urban China. We examine the impact of the first wave of housing reforms, which untied access to housing in urban areas from working for the state sector. We find that the reform significantly increased private housing ownership and private-sector employment, and reduced private-sector wages. The housing reform had no effect on unemployment or self-employment.     

Shortage and currency substitution in transition economies: Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and Romania

This paper examines currency substitution in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and Romania during the end of central planning and transition to market economies. Before liberalization, central European economies faced increasing shortage and repressed inflation in the official sector. Households held substantial wealth in real assets and foreign currency. Furthermore, part of their savings was held as hunting money against potential opportunities to buy in bulk at bargain prices in official stores or pay a premium price on the black market. The shift from centrally-planned to market economies is modeled with a shortage variable. Foreign currency demand and consumption functions are estimated by the Johansen procedure. Environmental constraints play a key role in interpreting estimates. The official sector shortage is an important determinant of foreign currency demand in each country.     

Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs

We regress long-term private-sector borrowing rates on a money market rate, a term premium and credit risk. As a contribution to the current debate about European safe assets, our interest is in quantifying the impact of euro area sovereign bond spreads on private-sector lending by employing it as a proxy for private-sector credit risk. Panel estimates show significant, albeit rather small long-run effects. Another finding is large cross-country heterogeneity. Using linear country-specific estimates, we find the effect to be significant in only some countries, but the size of the maximum effect in these countries exceeds the average one more than three-fold. Furthermore, for one country, we find an asymmetrical effect with positive spread changes having greater impact on private-sector borrowing costs than negative ones. Substantial heterogeneity of the spillover effect between euro area countries indicates the presence of financial valuation effects based not only on economic fundamentals. This, in turn, implies that spillovers may entail contagion costs. Overall, our results suggest that these costs are considerable in the euro area and will remain so until an effective form of European safe assets is created.     

ESTIMATES OF CAPITAL STOCK BY INDUSTRIES IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY

The main purpose of this paper is to discuss some of the measurement problems in connection with the perpetual inventory method applied for estimates of capital stock. In the Federal Republic of Germany, highly aggregated capital stock data by business sector are compiled by the Federal Statistical Office within its national accounts calculations, while more detailed capital stock estimates by industrial sectors are published by the German Institute of Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin. Because of various gaps in the statistical sources, the accuracy of the capital stock calculations is not yet entirely satisfactory. Aside from the problem of establishing long time series for gross fixed capital formation in constant prices for all sectors, it is difficult to obtain reliable data on the inter-sectoral transactions in secondhand capital goods. In addition, there are problems of determining price indices and service life distributions of the fixed assets in the various parts of the economy. This paper shows a way to arrive at a reasonably close approximation to the latter problem.     

The Nation's Private Wealth -Some New Calculations for Australia*

This paper has two related purposes. The first is to bring together and review a number of earlier studies which have attempted to estimate the value of Australia's privately held wealth stock. The second is to present new estimates covering the 1980s. based partly on these earlier studies, which value all major components of the nation's private wealth at their market value, or a close approximation. The calculations reported here represent the first aggregate Australian wealth series for which comprehensive market valuation can be claimed. Australia's aggregate non-human private wealth was found to be $794 billion at 30 June 1985. The series as a whole suggests that previous estimates have significantly under-valued Australia's wealth. At 30 June 1981 the Helliwell-Boxall (1978) study. updated by the Reserve Bank, reported a value of $294.7 billion, while Williams (1983) gave a value of $360.5 billion. The corresponding estimate for the new series is $532.5 billion. Because the new calculations presented here value wealth by component. it is possible to identify omissions and valuation differences which account for most of the variation between these estimates.