How integrated are world beef markets? The case of Australian and U.S. beef markets

The objective of the paper is to examine market integration between Australian and U.S. beef prices at the farmgate level. If these two prices are found to be integrated then it can be alleged that Australian beef prices can be used as a world price in empirical analyses and/or as a ‘reference price’ to measure the level of support accorded the U.S. beef sector. Co-integration analysis and a time-varying parameter estimation procedure based on the Kalman filter model are applied. The paper distinguishes between steer and cow beef segments and it uses monthly data over the 1972:1 to 1993:2 period. The results indicate that Australian and U.S. beef prices are co-integrated, albeit not fully and that the degree of convergence between the various price pairs has not substantially increased over time. The results also suggest that Australian prices can not unequivocally be adopted as a world price in empirical analyses.     

SOME ASPECTS OF INCOME STABILIZATION FOR PRIMARY PRODUCERS

The objectives of this paper are two-fold. The first is to discuss the basic economics of an aggregate industry income stabilization policy for primary producers. The second is to examine post-World War II income instability in Australian wool, wheat, and beef and to apportion it into its price and output components. This analysis provides a basis for discussing income stabilization in the Australian context.     

Domestic and trade impacts of foot‐and‐mouth disease on the Australian beef industry

Australia is the sixth largest producer of beef and the second largest exporter of beef. Average beef exports from Australia are approximately 65 per cent of the total amount of beef produced, about 1.3 million tonnes. Australia is particularly vulnerable to diseases that are not endemic to the country and could close or disrupt its export markets for beef. In this study, we construct a bioeconomic optimisation model of the Australian beef industry that captures production and consumption decisions, domestically and internationally, and the impacts on the beef industry of a potentially catastrophic disease, foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD). This study analyses localised to large‐scale outbreaks and suggests that changes in economic surplus because of FMD range from a positive net gain of $57 million to a net loss of $1.7 billion, with impacts on producers and consumers varying depending on the location of the outbreak, control levels and the nature of any trade ban.     

ON THE HIDDEN REVENUE EFFECTS OF WOOL PRICE STABILISATION IN AUSTRALIA: INITIAL RESULTS

A preliminary analysis of demand in eight major OECD wool-consuming countries is used to provide up-to-date estimates of price elasticities of demand for wool. Those elasticities are employed to calculate ex ante market prices, assuming no wool price stabilisation in Australia. The computed ex ante prices are used in a dynamic simulation to estimate demand and, hence, revenue from wool sales to the eight countries in the absence of reserve price operations in Australia. Based on the preferred semi-log demand curve, the variability of wool prices is estimated to have been reduced by 44 per cent, due to Australian intervention in the market up to 1977/78. However, price stabilisation is estimated to have lowered the revenue from Australian wool sales to the eight countries by S139m, or by 2 per cent, in the period up to 1977/78.     

DYNAMIC INTERRELATED DEMAND FUNCTIONS FOR FACTORS OF PRODUCTION AND THE AGGREGATE PRODUCTION FUNCTION IN UNITED KINGDOM AGRICULTURE

Taking the price situation as given in product and factor markets, a non-linear differential equation model of gross output, employment, capital accumulation, and gross input for united Kingdom agriculture is derived by incorporating internal adjustment cost functions into the representative decision-maker's objective function, and estimated using a discrete approximation. The results are consistent with efficient use of resources, but further incentives for capital investment and a greater exodus of labour could upset this. Adjustment costs as estimated account for 2.6 per cent of the value of output; those associated with net investment for 1.8 per cent, and those associated with employment and gross input for 0.57 and 0.23 per cent respectively.     

EU Reform of the Sugar Beet Regime: Implications for UK Agriculture

The purpose of this article is to discuss possible scenarios for UK sugar beet production after the reform of the sugar regime. The analysis is built on an evaluation undertaken by the University of Cambridge and The Royal Agricultural College of the impact that reforming the EU sugar regime may have on UK agriculture. The analysis focuses on the implications of reductions in quota and the support price and on the possible reactions by British Sugar, as the final outcome in terms of production will depend on the interaction between British Sugar and sugar beet farmers. The analysis indicates that British Sugar strategies such as reallocating the available quota to the more efficient producers or paying higher beet prices might mitigate the impacts of the reform. The key factor in limiting the overall impact on production is the extent that the industry can restructure and reduce its cost base. For example, following a 40 per cent reduction in the sugar beet price we estimate that if farmers could reduce their average costs by 20 per cent, about 52 per cent of UK beet production would still be viable, compared to less than 20 per cent if costs were not altered.     

Examining long-run relationships between Australian beef prices

Cointegration and impulse response analyses are used to investigate the short-run and long-run dynamics of the Australian beef market. The aim of this study is to determine whether long-run relationships existed between Australian beef prices at the farm, wholesale and retail levels. Based on monthly data from 1971 to 1994, the results show that all three prices considered are cointegrated. Furthermore, the wholesale price is found to be weakly exogenous. The latter result might be an indication of market inefficiency due in part to price levelling often practised in the beef marketing system.     

Valuing traceability of imported beef in Korea: an experimental auction approach*

The major objective of this study is to estimate Korean food shoppers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for imported beef with traceability. We use an experimental elicitation method, the random nth price auction, to identify consumers’ valuation for traceable imported beef. We also analyse the effect of different types of information on these valuations. Results indicate that consumers are generally willing to pay a 39 per cent premium for the traceable imported beef over similar beef without traceability. Results also suggest that in contrast to the insignificant effect of positive information, negative and two‐sided information about traceability significantly reduces WTP.     

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Japan: consumers' food safety perceptions and willingness to pay for tested beef*

The discovery of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), commonly known as ‘mad cow disease’, in Japan caused anxiety about consuming beef and beef products. As a result, there was a sudden fall in sales of beef that hurt the Japanese beef industry as well as major beef exporters to Japan. We analyse factors that affect Japanese consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) price premiums for BSE‐tested beef and estimate the mean WTP for BSE‐tested beef using data obtained from a consumer survey in Japan. A single‐bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation model is used to recover the premium amount. We find that attitudes to food safety, reduction in beef consumption following the BSE outbreak, and being female all have a statistically significant positive effect on the WTP for BSE‐tested beef. Interestingly, demographic variables such as age and income do not affect the WTP, possibly indicating that the BSE scare similarly affected multiple segments of the population. In our sample, consumers are willing to pay a premium on average of greater than 50 per cent for BSE‐tested beef.     

Asymmetry in beef,lamb and pork farm-retail price transmission in Australia

The hypothesis of asymmetry in price transmission within the Australian meat market is tested using monthly data for beef, lamb and pork prices at different market levels over the period 1971–1988. The results indicate that asymmetrical price response is a strategy used by beef and lamb retailers and wholesalers to adjust to changing input prices, but not by pork retailers and wholesalers. This difference is perhaps unexpected given the similarity in behaviours relating to price levelling in this market, the high cross-price elasticities of demand between these meats, and the relatively greater degree of concentration in the pork market.     

THE EFFECT OF PRICE SUPPORT POLICIES ON AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT,EMPLOYMENT, FARM INCOMES AND LAND VALUES IN THE U.K.

Agricultural price policy has a major impact on the input markets as well as the output markets and a model is developed to analyse the effects of changes in support levels on U.K. agricultural employment, earnings, investment and land prices. This paper describes the specification, estimation and evaluation of the model and simulates the effects of a one per cent increase in support prices. The main conclusions are that net investment would increase in the years following the rise by a maximum in the second year of £12m and by a cumulative total of £44m (representing an increase of about 0.4 per cent in the capital stock). Employment on the other hand, while rising at first, would subsequently fall to almost one per cent below its original level, and earnings of hired labour also fall slightly. Net farm income increases by around 10 per cent and this is capitalised into a similar increase in land values.     

Beef import market shares in Taiwan: implications for Australia

Market shares of major beef suppliers to Taiwan, including Australia, the United States and New Zealand, were estimated econometrically to determine their relative competitiveness. The analysis, based on monthly data from June 1990 to August 1997, showed that relative prices and consumer incomes were important factors influencing suppliers' market shares. Specifically, the demand for Australian beef responded little to an increase in price and negatively to an increase in consumer income. Furthermore, the growth in Taiwan beef consumption has slowed down and Australian beef suppliers need to re-assess the market potential and develop appropriate marketing strategies to maintain competitiveness.     

A NOTE ON BIAS IN THE ESTIMATED EFFECTS OF BEEF IMPORTS ON U.S. MEAT PRICES

The impact of beef imports on United States meat prices is a highly emotional and controversial issue. Congressmen representing urban districts, and to a lesser extent the Administration, look towards beef imports as a way of containing rapid increases in meat prices. Congressmen and Senators from beef-producing States regard beef imports as a direct attack on the U.S. beef-producing industry. These differing views are being reconciled through Congress considering amendments to the Meat Import Law (Public Law 88-482). The impacts and the amendments are of vital interest to Australia because about 25 per cent of Australia's beef production is sold on the lucrative U.S. market. In this note it is argued that, in general, the reported impacts on U.S. meat prices are overestimates because the analysts misspecify the structure of the U.S. beef industry.     

ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF RESEARCH INTO TRADED GOODS: THE CASE OF AUSTRALIAN WOOL

The final incidence of benefits and costs of wool industry research and development (R&D) undertaken in Australia depends greatly on the nature of the R&D and the way it is funded. Using preferred parameter values, the Australian share of benefits from farm-level R&D is 58 per cent (falling to 40 per cent if there is 50 per cent adoption of the new technology by producers overseas); the Australian shares of benefits from wool-processing R&D ere 24 per cent (topmaking) and 27 per cent (textile-processing). Under current funding arrangements, an Australian wool tax provides about one-eighth of total R&D funds, a matching government grant provides another one-eighth, and other public sector funds make up the remaining three-quarters. Under these arrangements, the final incidence of the costs is 95 per cent on Australians (mostly taxpayers at large), and the wool industry bears only 12.5 per cent of the costs of its R&D. One implication is that a wool tax alone is a more equitable and efficient means of financing wool-industry R&D than the current arrangements.     

Area Allocation Under Price Uncertainty on Dutch Arable Farms

This paper uses a Mean-Variance utility function to build a dual model that simultaneously determines area allocation and production/input levels under output price uncertainty. Regularity conditions of the indirect utility function (convexity) and producers risk preferences are tested. The framework is applied to a rotating sample of Dutch arable farms. Dutch arable farmers are found to be risk averse, with the size of the risk premium given by 3 per cent of annual profit. A bootstrap resampling method shows that curvature conditions are rejected. Price elasticities are compared for an unrestricted model and for a model with curvature conditions being imposed.     

Nonparametric measures of the impact of public research expenditures on Australian broadacre agriculture

Nonparametric methods are used to measure the impact of public research expenditures on Australian broadacre agriculture over the 1953–94 period. Results using both unrestricted and 30-year lagged specifications of the research impacts on productivity suggest that while certain aspects of the nonparametric multi-input/output technologies are quite robust to alternative specifications (in particular, the associated Malmquist total factor productivity indexes), other aspects are less stable (in particular, the indexes on input and, to a lesser extent, output biased technical change). Internal rates of return to research expenditures on Australian broadacre agriculture are estimated to be in the 12 per cent to 20 per cent range.     

INPUTS,OUTPUTS AND PRODUCTIVITY CHANGE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY

Tornqvist quantity indexes of output and input are computed for the period 1952/53 to 1976/77 from Australian Sheep Industry Survey data. The computation includes estimating the annual service flow from durable inputs. Total productivity in the sheep industry is estimated to have increased by 2.9 per cent per annum during this 25-year period. While the ratio of capital employed per unit of labour has increased, materials, services and livestock have been the inputs for which the quantity used has increased most rapidly. On the output side, there has been a move towards greater diversification with both crop and cattle enterprises on 'sheep properties' increasing in relative importance.     

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CROSS-COMPLIANCE ON ARABLE FARMING

It is argued that the ongoing CAP/GATT reforms provide a basis for the introduction of environmental cross-compliance (ECC). ECC enables policymakers to restrict output-related direct support payments to those farmers who comply with specified environmental guidelines aimed at reducing the external damage effects of agricultural production. This paper is an exploratory investigation of ECC and presents the results of a farm-level linear programming analysis of 15 North-West England arable farms. The environmental guidelines, which relate to permanent as opposed to rotational set-aside and to levels of fertiliser use, are widely applicable to the extent that ECC can be implemented as a voluntary policy system. They are clearly effective in achieving policy goals since all but one of the farmers investigated would comply with the full range of restrictions considered. Within this range, gross margins are reduced by up to 10 per cent while area and output of seed crops are reduced by around 22 per cent and 12 per cent respectively. Row crops area and output are more robust, each falling by just under 4 per cent.     

THE SHORT-TERM EFFECT OF DOMESTIC OIL PRICE INCREASES ON THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

The rise in the domestic price of oil products implied by the new import parity pricing policy for domestic crude oil is likely to pose some problems for macroeconomic management. In this paper an attempt has been made to quantify the short-run adjustment problems involved, using the ORANI 78 model of the Australian economy. Results are presented for a range of variables of interest, including macroeconomic variables, industrial and workforce composition and farm incomes. With fixed real wages, farm incomes are projected to decline by between 6 and 8 per cent.     

DROUGHT AND THE MULTIPLIER1

The effects of a 20 per cent across-the-board drought-year reduction in farm output upon G.N.P., imports and the balance of payments are estimated via an econometric mode of the Australian economy. The effects do not appear to be overly large and taper off rapidly in succeeding years.