解读我国的高储蓄——我国高储蓄率的原因及其对未来经济的影响

自改革开放以来,我国储蓄率一直居高不下,且持续上升,目前我国国民总储蓄率已经达到51．4％。本文从宏观经济学视角分析了我国高储蓄率对长期经济发展的影响和我国高储蓄率产生的原因;在此基础上,本文还进一步讨论我国目前这种高储蓄经济增长方式是否可持续的问题,最后就如何提高我国的消费需求,降低国民储蓄率提出了一些政策建议。     

中国农村高储蓄动机的实证研究——以江苏省农村地区为例

文章通过因子分析,对江苏农村地区进行调查分析,发现:预防性储蓄动机、生产动机、投机遗赠动机及无意动机是影响农村居民储蓄的几个重要因素。而社会保障制度、宏观经济状况及历史人文因素又是导致农村居民各种储蓄动机增强的重要原因。因此,要降低农村居民的储蓄率,转而提高即期消费,拉动经济增长,关键在于通过完善农村社会保障制度,增加农村居民投资渠道,完善农村遗赠税收制度,向农村居民普及基本理财知识等渠道。     

降低我国居民储蓄率的制度性对策

在当前世界性金融危机背景下,过高的储蓄率会加重内需不足进而引致经济衰退,文章分析了我国居民储蓄率过高的制度性原因,并提出了相应对策。     

20世纪90年代以来关于储蓄率研究的最新动态

从20世纪90年代以来,国际经济学界关于各国居民储蓄率和国民储蓄率的研究取得了重要进展。从储蓄率的基本决定因素来看,除了传统的人均收入、经济增长速度、利率等因素外,人口因素、预防性储蓄动机、宏观经济政策冲击、外部融资条件、贸易条件冲击和教育等因素对储蓄率的影响也得到了越来越深入的讨论。在对众多因素的讨论申,人口结构的转变和社会保障体系的完善程度(谨慎性储蓄动机)与储蓄率变化的关系一直是讨论的重点。由于储蓄率在国家和地区之间的分布并不均衡,因此很多研究文献都致力于解释个别国家储蓄率过高或过低的原因,或者比较国别间或地区间储蓄率的高低并探究其原因。最近几年来,中国的高储蓄现象得到了国际经济学界更多的关注。     

中国U型储蓄的分析

我国的储蓄率逐渐变为U型和国外的倒U型是相反的。退休后的储蓄率高于工作的人的储蓄率，出现了和生命周期理论相违背的现象。这种趋势从1995年开始，到2000年出现大的上升，到2005年趋势非常明显。     

我国居民储蓄影响因素的实证分析

改革开放以来,我国经济快速发展,但近年来我国居民消费需求却始终不振,相应的,我国居民的储蓄不断攀升,这严重制约了我国经济的发展。文章运用2002~2014年的有关居民储蓄的数据进行了实证分析,对影响居民储蓄的因素进行了探究,并针对影响因素给出相应的建议来降低我国的高储蓄率。     

社保缴费对劳动力就业、工资和家庭储蓄的影响

本文基于《社会保险法》实施并采用城镇住户月度面板调查数据,首次从家户层面全面考察了社保缴费对劳动力就业、工资和家庭储蓄的影响。研究结果显示:《社会保险法》实施显著增加了企业和劳动力社保缴费,法律的实施不仅加重了企业社保缴费负担,而且提高了养老账户的储蓄水平;社保缴费增加并未导致劳动力失业,但在职劳动力以降低工资的形式承担了至少一半的公司社保缴费负担;社保缴费增加虽然显著降低了0.9个百分点的家庭储蓄率,但依然显著促进了中国总体养老财富积累;社保缴费收益凸显性较高是导致上述结果的重要机制。本文结果表明加强社保费征管不仅有利于增加社保基金收入,而且能够促进中国整体养老财富积累。     

超高储蓄率弊大于利

正最近,一项"中国储蓄率世界第一"的数据再次引发社会关注。国务院发展研究中心研究员吴敬琏日前表示,中国最近几年储蓄率在50%左右,居世界第一,但居民储蓄率只是20%左右。储蓄高主要表现在政府和企业,而非居民。造成这个局面的根本原因在于市场体制存在缺陷。另有专家指出,企业储蓄率高暴露出在一次收入分配中,企业回报多,劳动者回报少的痼疾,致使消费不振,加剧了经济结构失衡。将更多政府和企业收入转化为普通居民的"收入"成为当务之急。     

基于VAR模型的贵州省人口老龄化对居民储蓄率影响的实证分析

通过建立VAR模型对贵州省1998~2013年的数据进行分析,发现贵州省人口老龄化并没有直接影响居民储蓄率;而居民储蓄率对老年人口的数量有正向影响,居民储蓄率提高/降低1%带来0.54%的老年人口数量的增加/减少。究其原因贵州省经济相对落后,影响储蓄率的因素有很多,人口老龄化对储蓄影响不明显;老年人储蓄不足,在贵州省医疗水平不高、社会保障不完善的情况下,会影响老年人的健康状况,从而影响老年人口数量。     

中国发展战略学研究会经济战略专业委员会第七届学术年会召开

《人民日报》（海外版）日前刊登中国社科院金融所中国经济评价中心主任刘煜辉的文章说，人们在谈中国的储蓄率过高的时候，想当然的理解是居民的储蓄率过高。近年来，中国储蓄率在已有的高位上还在不断攀升，从1996年的37％上升到2005年的44％。其中，居民个人总储蓄仅占了国民总储蓄的30％-40％（近几年还在下降），而政府和企业总储蓄才是主要构成部分，     

Saving dynamics in the Asian countries

This paper investigates empirically the factors that have influenced the savings behavior in the fast growing Asian economies—Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. Both the short and long-run movements of savings are modeled during the 1960–1997. The empirical results of the analysis based on time series data may be summarized as follows: (i) foreign savings deters domestic saving both in the short and long run; (ii) savings does not Granger cause economic growth, except for Singapore; (iii) the effect of interest rate on saving in Asian countries is inconclusive and it reflects the extent of financial liberalization adopted in these countries; and (iv) in the long run the causality runs from foreign to domestic savings.     

LONG‐RUN DETERMINANTS OF SAVINGS RATES IN WAEMU COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT FROM ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH

In this paper, we examine the long‐run determinants of savings rates for seven member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union over the period 1970–2006. We use the bounds testing approach to cointegration developed by Pesaran et al. This methodology has several advantages with respect to other cointegration tests. The long‐run determinants of savings rate vary across countries. Results reveal that the financial liberalization process undertaken at the end of 1989 and the existing monetary policy have not been effective to increase the domestic savings rates within the area.     

西部开发中创办中外合资企业值得重视的几个问题

本文对西方的企业融资理论作了简要的介绍,并从企业融资结构理论出发分析了我国企业融资结构 中存在的问题及由此产生的不良影响,在此基础上,提出了优化我国企业融资结构的政策建议。     

The Asian crisis,private sector saving,and policy implications

The Asian financial crisis has several critical implications for the saving behavior in the crisis-hit economies as well as in other Asian economies, which are summarized as follows: increase in economic uncertainty; increase in poverty; decrease in public confidence in financial institutions; financial liberalization; and reduction in corporate leverage ratio. Putting these together, the postcrisis saving rates in the crisis economies are likely to decrease without government interventions. Although the uncertainity factor may contribute to an increase in short-term saving, an abated level in household income and corporate output and slow GDP growth will lead to a contraction in saving rates. Increased poverty, diminished public confidence in banking institutions, and the increased variability of business sales will further contribute to a reduction in saving rates of the household and corporate sectors. Keeping this in mind, the postcrisis saving policy should consider stronger macroeconomic stabilization policies to reduce the underlying economic uncertainty to encourage long-term savings/investments; improving the public confidence in financial institutions through financial restructuring and a proper deposit insurance scheme in place; channeling informal sector saving into the formal financial institutions; and promoting propoor saving policies.     

Corporate Tax Planning and Financial Performance in Nigerian Non‐Financial Quoted Companies

This study investigates the relationship between corporate tax planning and financial performance of quoted non‐financial companies. The secondary yearly data used were gathered from 47 sampled non‐financial companies from 2007 to 2016. A panel vector autoregressive approach with structural analysis such as variance decomposition and impulse response function was adopted. The results of the study revealed that tax saving had a direct relationship with financial performance, while tax avoidance had an inverse relationship with financial performance. The financial variables under consideration mainly contributed to their own shocks or forecast errors. The responses of the financial performance to shocks in tax avoidance had an expansionary effect which could hinder the performance of the companies, while financial performance response to shocks in tax savings had a contractionary effect and as such, could lead to better performance of the companies. Thus, corporate tax planning that enhances tax savings greatly contributes to the performance of non‐financial companies. They should therefore not only engage in tax planning, but also ensure that their tax planning is legal, and leads to tax saving for the companies, such that no excessive or multiple tax will be paid and hence, better financial performance will be achieved.     

Determinants of bond market development in Asia

One of the major reasons behind the Asian financial crisis in 1997 was the excessive dependence of the Asian economies on commercial banks for domestic financing. The region failed to diversify its sources of corporate financing as it relied mainly on banks since its other types of financing, namely bond markets, were still underdeveloped and their sizes were quite small. On the other hand, the 2008 global financial crisis and the ongoing European debt crisis have led to constraints in acquiring local currency and foreign currency liquidity in the corporate sector in Asia as foreign banks withdrew investments from Asia. Furthermore, Asia needs large long term capital (US$ 750 billion per year for 2010–2020) for developing infrastructure connectivity within and across its economies. Local and regional capital can be channeled for long-term infrastructure projects and other productive investment through bond markets. Having a well-developed local currency bond markets can enhance the resilience of domestic financial sector to external shocks and it can facilitate better intermediation of savings into productive investments in Asia. To enhance corporate bond financing, it is important to examine factors that affect the effective development of bond markets in Asia. The study attempts to identify the determinants of bond market development in Asian economies through examining the relationship of bond issuance with selected key financial and economic factors. It also intends to provide policy recommendations for the further development of the Asian bond market. Major determinants for bond market development in Asia include the size of an economy, the stage of economic development, the openness of an economy, the exchange rate variability, the size of the banking system, and interest rate variability.     

Comparative analysis of health care costs in Japan and the United States: a simulation of productivity and savings behavior

Japan and the United States, though contrastive in terms of the percentage of the elderly in their population and the ratio of their health care costs to GDP, both face soaring medical expenditures. Sato et al. [Health Care Systems in Japan and the United States: A Simulation Studies and Policy Analysis. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Hingham, MA] developed a model to solve this problem by increasing the productivity of the non-health care sector. This study has applied that model to estimate national savings, and compared these savings with estimated health care costs. The results show that in order for savings to exceed expenditures the US needs to have a higher savings rate and a higher interest rate than Japan.     

Interest Rate Liberalization and Economic Growth in Zambia: A Dynamic Linkage

Abstract: This paper examines the dynamic impact of interest rate reforms on economic growth in Zambia—using two models in a stepwise fashion. In the first model, the efficacy of interest rate liberalization is examined by regressing the interest rate on the level of financial deepening. In the second model, the causal relationship between financial depth and economic growth is examined by incorporating savings as an intermittent variable in the bivariate setting, thereby creating a simple trivariate model. Using the cointegration‐based error correction model, the study finds strong support for the positive impact of interest rate liberalization on financial deepening. In addition, the study finds that financial deepening, which results from interest rate liberalization, Granger causes economic growth. The results apply irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short run or in the long run. Other results show that: (1) lagged financial depth leads to further financial deepening; (2) savings and economic growth Granger cause each other; and (3) financial development Granger causes savings in the long run.     

所有权性质、企业社会责任与会计信息可靠性

文章以我国A股中2009-2013年披露社会责任报告的上市公司为样本,实证检验了企业社会责任与会计信息可靠性的关系,以及不同所有权性质对二者关系的影响。研究发现,我国企业履行社会责任行为符合道德理论和战略管理理论,即企业社会责任表现越好,其所报告的会计信息可靠性越强。此外,由于国有上市公司既肩负政治任务,同时还面临政府管制和公众关注,因此,民营上市公司的企业社会责任与会计信息可靠性的正相关关系更为显著。文章的研究结论对财务报告使用者判断会计信息可靠性具有启示作用。     

政治联系、制度因素与企业的创新活动

本文使用世界银行在中国开展的投资环境调查（Investment Climate Survey）的数据,主要研究了法律环境、金融体系等制度因素以及政治关联对企业创新活动的影响。在控制了一系列影响创新的因素后,本文得出了以下几个主要结论：（1）良好的法律保护制度（以法律对合同的维护来衡量）以及高效的金融体系能够促进企业的研发活动,随着转轨过程的进行,金融体系对企业经济活动发挥着越来越重要的作用;（2）被动形成的政治关联程度弱化了企业创新的动机,CEO不是由政府直接任命的企业较CEO由政府任命的企业更倾向于进行创新活动,国有制的所有制形式阻碍了企业的创新活动;（3）企业主动建立的政治关联正向影响企业研发活动。此外,我们还发现企业的规模与企业的创新活动正相关。