Share prices and pension funding: An empirical test of the joint effect of pension insurance and the pension tax shield

This article examines the joint significance of the tax benefits of pension funding and the value of government sponsored pension insurance in determining the efficacy of corporate pension funding. When the pension tax shield benefits are dominant, additional funding may enhance shareholder wealth. However, additional funding is observed to have negative effects on equity prices when the value of pension insurance is dominant relative to the value of the pension tax shield. When neither the tax or insurance effects are dominant, marginal adjustments in pension funding apparently will not alter corporate share prices.     

Determinants of Actuarial Valuation Method Changes for Pension Funding and Reporting: Evidence from the UK

This study examines various factors that potentially explain cross‐sectional variations in UK corporate managerial discretion to switch towards a market‐based actuarial pension valuation method for pension funding and reporting purposes. Evidence is based on accounting, actuarial and share market data for an industry‐matched pair sample of 90 UK firms. Consistent with our hypotheses we find that companies have a greater propensity to switch actuarial methods if they use lower discount rates, lower flow funding ratios and sponsor larger pension plans in the pre‐switch valuation year. These findings are consistent with the traditional perspective, which implies that UK corporate switching decisions are explained by characteristics of their defined benefit pension funds. The results run contrary to the findings of earlier US based studies that find that such choices can be explained from an alternative corporate financial perspective.     

Pricing pension buy-outs under stochastic interest and mortality rates

Pension buy-out is a special financial asset issued to offload the pension liabilities holistically in exchange for an upfront premium. In this paper, we concentrate on the pricing of pension buy-outs under dependence between interest and mortality rates risks with an explicit correlation structure in a continuous time framework. Change of measure technique is invoked to simplify the valuation. We also present how to obtain the buy-out price for a hypothetical benefit pension scheme using stochastic models to govern the dynamics of interest and mortality rates. Besides employing a non-mean reverting specification of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and a continuous version of Lee–Carter setting for modeling mortality rates, we prefer Vasicek and Cox–Ingersoll–Ross models for short rates. We provide numerical results under various scenarios along with the confidence intervals using Monte Carlo simulations.     

Fiscal institutions and the funding of US state and local pension plans

This paper investigates the relationship between the funded ratio of US public pension plans and several fiscal institutions adopted by state governments. The author analysed a large data set from 1997 to 2012, and found that states with stricter balanced budget requirements and debt limits had a lower pension funded ratio, whereas states with tax and spending limits in place had a higher funded ratio. The findings contribute to the current debate on public sector pension reforms in the US and internationally.     

On risk charges and shadow account options in pension funds

This paper studies the economic implications of regulatory systems which allow equityholders of pension companies to not only charge a specific premium to compensate them for their higher risk (compared to policyholders), but also to accumulate these risk charges in a so-called shadow account in years when they are not immediately payable due to e.g. poor investment results. When surpluses are subsequently reestablished, clearance of the shadow account balance takes priority over bonus/participation transfers to policyholders. We see such a regulatory accounting rule as a valuable option to equityholders and our paper develops a model in which the influence of risk charges and shadow account options on stakeholders’ value can be quantified and studied. Our numerical results show that the value of shadow account options can be significant and thus come at the risk of expropriating policyholder wealth. However, our analysis also shows that this risk can be remedied if proper attention is given to the specific contract design and to the fixing of fair contract parameters at the outset.     

Dynamic asset allocation with stochastic income and interest rates

We solve for optimal portfolios when interest rates and labor income are stochastic with the expected income growth being affine in the short-term interest rate in order to encompass business cycle variations in wages. Our calibration based on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data supports this relation with substantial variation across individuals in the slope of this affine function. The slope is crucial for the valuation and riskiness of human capital and for the optimal stock/bond/cash allocation both in an unconstrained complete market and in an incomplete market with liquidity and short-sales constraints.     

论我国企业年金管理模式改革的战略方向

通过对我国企业年金管理模式纵横两方面的比较,本文认为,从微观的企业年金管理的层面上讲,法人受托模式下的2+2和3+1捆绑模式是目前企业年金管理的两种较好方式;从宏观的企业年金改革的层面上讲,企业年金管理改革的战略方向有四:从非信托模式走向信托模式;从理事会受托模式走向法人受托模式;从法人受托分拆模式走向法人受托捆绑模式;从传统金融机构捆绑模式走向养老金管理公司捆绑模式。     

Wholesale funding and bank stability: The impact of economic policy uncertainty

The primary aim of this paper is to examine the conditioning effects of economic policy uncertainty on the relationship between wholesale funding and bank stability. Based on a sample of 1829 commercial banks in 27 countries over the period 2005–2020, we provide evidence of a nonlinear relationship between wholesale funding and bank stability. Specifically, a small share of nondeposit funding to total deposit and short-term funding (below 22.3%) offers some risk reduction, but a substantial mixing of nondeposit and deposit funding increases bank fragility. Moreover, the adverse effects of excessive wholesale funding on bank stability are strengthened during periods of high policy uncertainty. Nevertheless, banks in advanced countries, large banks, and high-quality banks with better asset quality are less affected by the detrimental impact of excessive wholesale funding on bank stability when during periods of increased policy uncertainty.     

An empirical analysis of the day-of-the-week effect in stock returns: The case of U.S. and Japan

This article employs daily closing index data to investigate the relationship between the U.S. and Japanese equity markets. It reassesses and extends the Becker et al. (1990) methodology over a longer sample space. The article then advances the analysis further by estimating structural equation models and by including the exchange rate as an additional explanatory variable. The resulting multivariate econometric design shows that the U.S. equity market strongly affects the Japanese equity market Monday through Friday while the Japanese market exerts a weaker influence on the U.S. market with the influence observed only on Mondays and Wednesdays.     

Linear predictability vs. bull and bear market models in strategic asset allocation decisions: evidence from UK data

Most papers in the portfolio choice literature have examined linear predictability frameworks based on the idea that simple but flexible Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models can be expanded to produce portfolio allocations that hedge against the bull and bear dynamics typical of financial markets through careful selection of predictor variables that capture business cycles and market sentiment. Yet, a distinct literature exists that shows that non-linear econometric frameworks, such as Markov switching, are also natural tools to compute optimal portfolios arising from the existence of good and bad market states. This paper examines whether and how simple VARs can produce portfolio rules similar to those obtained under a simple Markov switching, by studying the effects of expanding both the order of the VAR and the number/selection of predictor variables included. In a typical stock-bond strategic asset allocation problem for UK data, we compute the out-of-sample certainty equivalent returns for a wide range of VARs and compare these measures of performance with those of non-linear models. We conclude that most VARs cannot produce portfolio rules, hedging demands or (net of transaction costs) out-of-sample performances that approximate those obtained from simple non-linear frameworks.     

The Information Content of Corporate Pension Funding Status in Japan

This paper tests if a firm's pension funding ratio (pension assets/PBO) reveals the management's private information about the firm's operation when the firm can exercise discretion in pension funding. The lax enforcement of pension funding rules and the prevalence of management forecasts make Japanese firms an ideal testing ground. We show that, among firms with large business uncertainty, large accruals, or high effective tax rates, the pension funding ratio predicts the firm's management forecast errors significantly beyond conventional control variable and the effects of pension accounting management. However, the stock market does not appear to incorporate this information immediately.     

Empirical analysis of the average asset correlation for real estate investment trusts

The credit risk capital requirements within the current Basel II Accord are based on the asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) approach. The asset correlation parameter, defined as an obligor's sensitivity to the ASRF, is a key driver within this approach, and its average values for different types of obligors are to be set by regulators. Specifically, for commercial real estate (CRE) lending, the average asset correlations are to be determined using formulas for either income-producing real estate or high-volatility commercial real estate. In this paper, the value of this parameter was empirically examined using portfolios of U.S. publicly-traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) as a proxy for CRE lending more generally. CRE lending as a whole was found to have the same calibrated average asset correlation as corporate lending, providing support for the recent U.S. regulatory decision to treat these two lending categories similarly for regulatory capital purposes. However, the calibrated values for CRE categories, such as multi-family residential or office lending, varied in important ways. The comparison of calibrated and regulatory values of the average asset correlations for these categories suggests that the current regulatory formulas generate parameter values that may be too high in most cases.     

Visible Reserves in Banks – Determinants of Initial Creation,Usage and Contribution to Bank Stability

The opportunity of building up visible “Reserves for General Banking Risks” by the bank management represents a peculiarity in the German financial accounting framework for banks. We investigate German banks' motives for the creation and usage of these reserves and assess their role in financial stability. We find that banks primarily create and use GBR reserves to build up Tier 1 capital for regulatory capital management and earnings management purposes. Most importantly, however, we also reveal that banks using these reserves are less likely to experience a future distress or a bank default event. We therefore conclude that the existence of GBR reserves within the financial accounting framework represents both a convenient capital and earnings management tool for bank managers and a beneficial regulatory instrument to enhance bank stability.     

Earnings management and the allocation of net periodic pension costs to interim periods

We examine the pattern of reported quarterly net periodic pension costs. Quarterly pension costs are one of the largest single expense items for firms with pension plans (around 15% of income before extraordinary items in our sample). Under ASC 270, net pension costs should be recognized as incurred, or as the benefit provided by the expense is realized. We find that over the period of 2004–2010, there is significant variation in the amount of quarterly pension cost firms report. In addition, we find that income-increasing changes in pension costs are significantly associated with meeting or beating analysts' forecasts in a given quarter. We also show that income-decreasing changes to net periodic pension costs that would cause a firm to miss its earnings forecast are extremely rare. Finally, we find evidence that income-increasing and income-decreasing changes in quarterly pension costs are “settled up” in the fourth quarter (e.g., they are reversed).     

Good decisions,bad decisions: the interaction of process and outcome in evaluations of decision quality

Process‐based considerations are generally accepted by experts and analysts as being the fundamental drivers of decision quality. However, little work has been done to account for the role of a risk management decision’s outcome as a key driver of the public judgments about decision quality. To this end, the objective of the research reported here was straightforward to determine – via an experiment – the relative importance of decision‐making process and the associated outcome in lay evaluations of decision quality. Our results demonstrate that people seem to have a difficult time unpacking decision‐making processes, even ones they strongly prefer, from their associated outcomes when evaluating decision quality. From a practical standpoint, our results cast doubt on the generally accepted belief that participatory and deliberative decision‐making processes (e.g., for risk management) will – on their own – contribute to positive evaluations of decision quality.     

衍生产品使用对公司价值和业绩影响的实证检验

本文在回顾企业使用衍生产品相关理论的基础上，分析了中国上市公司使用衍生产品现状，并以深沪两市有色金属加工或生产行业上市公司为研究样本，实证检验中国上市公司使用衍生产品进行风险管理是否提高了公司价值和业绩，结果发现中国企业使用衍生产品并没有像西方理论所认为的那样可以提升公司价值，其原因在于国内企业使用衍生产品的负面影响抵消了其正面作用，所以无法起到提升公司价值的作用。在此基础上，文章提出了相关的政策建议。     

Determinants and value of enterprise risk management: empirical evidence from Germany

Enterprise risk management (ERM) has become increasingly relevant in recent years, especially due to an increasing complexity of risks and the further development of regulatory frameworks. The aim of this paper is to empirically analyze firm characteristics that determine the implementation of an ERM system and to study the impact of ERM on firm value. We focus on companies listed at the German stock exchange, which to the best of our knowledge is the first empirical study with a cross-sectional analysis for Germany and one of the first for a European country. Our findings show that size, international diversification and the industry sector (banking, insurance, energy) positively impact the implementation of an ERM system, and financial leverage is negatively related to ERM engagement. In addition, our results confirm a significant positive impact of ERM on shareholder value.     

Firm- and Country-Level Attributes as Determinants of Earnings Management: An Analysis for Latin American Firms

This article analyzes firm- and country-level determinants of the earnings management for a sample of Latin American companies from 1997 to 2015 by using panel data to deal with the endogeneity and heterogeneity problems. Results show that dividend pay-outs impact positively on earnings management. The ownership structure, however, is a double-edged sword as a controlling mechanism that may constrain earnings manipulation but may also exacerbate it. Concerning country-level variables, we found that the development of the financial system behaved opposite of expectation. Consequently, before inefficient financial markets in Latin America, managers had more room for manipulation of financial statements. The legal and regulatory system, however, proved itself to be efficient in reducing the opportunistic behavior of managers.     

中国上市银行内部控制审计现状分析及对策建议

作为内部控制系统的再监督机制,内部控制审计对于银行业具有重要的作用。随着《企业内部控制基本规范》及配套指引的出台,中国各上市银行加快了规范内部控制审计的步伐,但在内部控制审计的地位、独立性和权威性、方法论、信息化、行业标准化和团队建设中仍存在一些不足。有关的完善建议包括:从组织架构和管理体制上确保内部审计的地位;更加充分重视风险文化的建立;更加注重对审计方法论、技术和内容等的精细化研究;培养专家型和研究型的审计人员;开发更多的计算机审计技术;监管部门应加快出台银行业内部控制审计操作指南。