Strong Presidential Approval or Disapproval Influencing the Expected Benefits of Voting and the Voter Participation Rate

This empirical study seeks to broaden the interpretation of the rational voter model so as to identify and better understand key determinants of the expected benefits from voting and hence key determinants of the aggregate voter participation rate in the US. Using annual data for all years in the 1960–1997 study period, this study finds that the voter participation rate has been positively impacted by strong public approval or strong public disapproval of the incumbent President, a finding unique to this literature and study period. In addition, the aggregate voter participation rate has been positively impacted by such factors as the Gulf War, which is generally regarded as having been popular among the US electorate, and a rising unemployment rate. This study also finds the voter participation rate to have been negatively impacted by the publics dissatisfaction with government, as well as by the Watergate scandal.The author is indebted to Cassandra Copeland for helpful information, comments, and guidance.     

Testing Conflicting Political Economy Theories: Full‐Fledged versus Partial‐Scope Regional Trade Agreements

We apply a duration analysis to test the conflicting predictions of the median voter model and the lobbying model using panel data on regional trade agreement (RTA) formation. Our results show that the pro‐labor prediction of the median voter model is supported by the full‐fledged free trade areas and customs unions (FTAs/CUs), while the pro‐capital prediction of the lobbying model is supported by the partial‐scope preferential trade arrangements among developing countries. This finding holds better for the country pairs with more different capital‐labor ratios as a result of the stronger distributional effects of RTAs. The support for the median voter model (lobbying model) is stronger when the two countries in a pair have left‐oriented (right‐oriented) governments. I also find stronger support for the median voter model for the subset of FTAs/CUs with service coverage and stronger support for the lobbying model for countries that place higher weight on political contribution.     

Race,class, and politics in the black community of Boston

Conclusion We found that there are indeed some slight differences in the electoral behavior of black voters when we separate them into high and low socio-economic areal categories based on the level of median income. These slight differences include turnout rates for primary and general elections and voter registration rates. The higher the socioeconomic status of the black electorate in Boston, the higher the turnout and registration rates for that area tended to be; however, this relationship was not found to be consistent among all the areas selected for study. Despite these differences in electoral behavior or “practices,” our areal model does not suggest any significant political schisms based on the sicioeconomic indicators used. Black voters tended to vote the same way on a number of city and state ballot questions, support the same candidates at both the city and state level, and vote the liberal preference on both issues and candidates regardless of socioeconomic background. In addition, there is some evidence that the higher a black voter is on the socioeconomic scale, the greater his or her tendency will be to vote the liberal position on various issues and candidates. Our model also suggests that black voters will tend to support black candidates regardless of some socioeconomic factors. If this model can be used as an indication of class differences in the black community, then our data show that socioeconomic criteria are not as salient as race in determining the political behavior and preferences of black voters.     

The Median Voter According to GARP

This paper adapts the generalized axiom of revealed preference (GARP) empirical method to the public goods problem to test whether observed municipal public spending can be explained “as if” the city governments maximize the utility of the median income voter. It applies the test procedure for medium-size municipal governments in five Midwest states. The data are consistent with GARP and reveal that the local governments in the sample behave as if they maximize median voter utility once we control for the state-specific effects, government management structure, and population density.     

Why are more redistributive social security systems smaller? A median voter approach

One of the stylized facts of unfunded social security programsis that programs are larger in size, measured relative to theGDP, the tighter the link between pension claims and past earnings.We provide a political economy explanation of this stylizedfact in a median voter model, where people vote on the socialsecurity tax rate. We compare pension systems with flat-rateand earnings-related benefit formulas. Only flat-rate benefitsredistribute within a generation from high to low income groups.If labor supply is endogenous, they also imply larger efficiencycosts than earnings-related schemes. Using data on eight Europeancountries, we find that the median voter is typically middle-agedwith high income. For these voters, earnings-related systemsare more attractive both because of less intragenerational redistributionand lower distortions in labor supply. The median voter modelis also able to account for a considerable degree of cross-countryvariation in contribution rates.     

Does the Median Voter or Special Interests Determine State Highway Expenditures? Recent Evidence

Using cross-sectional data from 50 states of the United States and the District of Columbia for two different time periods, this paper examines the degree to which special interests or the median voter determine state highway expenditures. In addition to finding that previous estimates of the determinants of state highway expenditures are robust, we find that that special interests that were important in 1984 were no longer significant nearly 20 years later. Like the previous literature, we conclude that the reduced form median voter model performs well in explaining state highway expenditures.     

Determinants of Geographic Differentials in the Voter Participation Rate

Voter participation rates vary widely across the 50 states. This empirical study seeks, within the context of a broadened version of the ‘rational voter model,’ to identify determinants of this interstate variation. Using the 2004 general election as the study period, it is found that the voter participation rate in a state is positively related to the percent of the state's adult population with at least a high school education, the state's unemployment rate, the percent of the state's population age 65 and older, and the female labor force participation rate in the state. In addition, it is found that voter turnout in a state is negatively related to the state's median family income and the percentage of its population that is Hispanic.     

Determinants of Geographic Voter Participation Rate Differentials: the 2014 Mid-Term Election

Voter participation rates vary widely across the 50 states and the District of Columbia. This empirical study seeks, within the context of a broadened version of the “rational voter model,” to identify determinants of this geographic variation. Using the 2014 mid-term general election, it was found that the voter participation rate across states and the District of Columbia was positively related to whether there is a close governor’s race or a close U.S. Senate race, the female labor force participation rate, the percent of the population aged 65 and over, the number of referenda on the ballot, and the degree of voting-by-mail usage. In addition, it was found that voter turnout was negatively related to the percentages of the population that are either Hispanic or Afro-American.     

The effectiveness of supply-side tax cuts under alternative political models

Conclusion Unless a supply-side tax cut is accompanied by a genuine limit on government spending, there are two relative price effects that need to be taken into consideration. The case for a supply-side tax cut has been based on the relative price shift between consumption versus investment goods. However, investment incentives created by this change in relative prices may be completely stymied by the political response to an accompanying relative price shift between publicly and privately supplied goods. It is the conclusion of this paper that the latter relative price effect will be more important in a political process controlled by the median voter than in one controlled by special interests.Based on the conclusion, it is interesting to speculate that those who model government as responsive to the median voter, [e.g., Meltzer and Richard (1981)] will be less enthusiastic about supply-side tax cuts not accompanied by spending limits than those who model government as controlled by special interests [e.g., Niskanen (1971)]. Another, and possibly safer, conjecture is to reverse directions and conclude that enthusiastic supply-siders will be those who believe that government size is largely determined by the demands of special interests and as a consequence is excessive.     

The Electoral College System, Political Party Dominance, and Voter Turnout, With Evidence from the 2004 Presidential Election

Within the context of a broadened version of the “rational voter model,” this study empirically investigates a hypothesis that asserts that within the context of the Electoral College System, the greater the degree to which either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party dominates the other in any given state, the lower the aggregate voter participation rate in that state. Using the 2004 Presidential election as the study period, the analysis includes a number of economic and demographic variables. Using a different methodology than previous studies of voter turnout and the Electoral College System, as well as more current data, this study finds strong empirical evidence for the hypothesis. It also is suggested that, logically, the Electoral College System distorts the pattern of voter turnout across states.      

Macro policy in the tropics: How sensible people stand

A model for macro policy analysis is set out, incorporating an inflation theory based on distributional conflict, output and current account adjustment mechanisms, and the money market. Classic structuralist results about contractionary devaluation and stagflationary monetary restriction are derived. Alternative closures of the model are considered — monetarism and external strangulation (or foreign exchange bonanzas) — and it is extended to deal with interest rate reform. Short-term stabilization issues are analyzed — monetary and fiscal policy, import quotas and export subsidies as opposed to devaluation, financial market complications, food subsidies and public sector pricing, and orthodox and heterodox anti-inflationary programs. Finally, medium-term processes of inflation, distribution and growth are described. An example of an irreversible contractionary shock which leads the economy from a distributionally favorable to an unfavorable steady state is presented.     

Office-seeking politicians, interest groups and split contributions in a campaign finance model

The present paper investigates an extended version of Prat's campaign finance models. In this model, interest groups make contributions to politicians to influence policy decisions. Voters are assumed to judge candidates on two aspects: policy promises and nonpolicy personal qualities referred to as valence. There are two types of voters. Among these, uninformed voters only observe campaign contributions that take the role of a signaling medium. We solve the equilibrium of the game between politicians and interest groups. We then specify conditions under which a separating equilibrium exists and study the effect of split contributions on the welfare of the median voter.     

总体国家安全观下网络舆情信息传播特征

在新时代总体国家安全观视角下,基于新浪微博舆情信息大数据,探究基于不同类型意见领袖（官媒、自媒体与大V）的网络舆情信息传播机制。通过构建独立级联模型与社会网络分析模型,对3类意见领袖传播舆情信息特征予以评价。结果表明,官媒对舆情信息传播的主导作用最强,具有相当规模用户群的大V和自媒体,以不同方式影响舆情信息演化。研究结果为相关突发事件中的用户分析和舆情信息传播研究与网络信息内容生态治理提供了新的理论视角。     

Externalities,Cross-Sectoral Spillovers and Productivity Growth

We provide an interpretation of the productivity dynamics in the manufacturing sector based on the idea of the thick market externality à la Diamond. An econometric model has been estimated which allows to disentangle the long run effects of these trading externalities from those of internal economies of scale and of aggregate industry-level economies. The results obtained—based on a cointegrated system of non-linear-error-correction equations—confirm the hypothesis that the trading externality matters. Moreover, our findings point out that the emphasis generally posited both on internal and external economies of scale is not justified.     

AID US TO WIN THE ELECTIONS: FOREIGN AID AND VOTER TURNOUT

We use an innovative procedure to determine the effect of foreign aid on institutions of governance. We use voter turnout as an indicator variable which allows us to identify whether political competition in a country is based on private goods, such as vote‐buying, or on public goods. We suggest that the marginal effect of foreign aid on voter turnout depends on the wider underlying institutional setting. Contrary to popular belief, the theoretical model implies that a higher voter turnout in response to foreign aid can be undesirable when the increase is a consequence of vote‐buying in the electoral campaign. The empirical evidence we examine is consistent with private‐goods political competition, i.e., political parties use foreign aid for vote‐buying and similar electoral tactics, particularly when the underlying institutions are sufficiently bad. This is consistently estimated across specifications which address a range of endogeneity sources.     

A Classroom Exercise: Voting by Ballots and Feet

This classroom experiment illustrates the efficiency-enhancing property of a Tiebout system in which local public goods decisions are determined by a political process. Students are given playing cards that induce diverse preferences for expenditures on alternative public goods and are initially assigned to specific communities. Then those in each community vote on the type and level of public goods provision, which determine the tax cost. After the provision and tax results are announced, students are free to move to a location where the prior results are more consistent with their preferences. This process continues for several rounds, with a new vote taken at each location after moves have been made. The exercise demonstrates that the combination of voting with feet and ballots tends to increase the total net benefit for all communities. The voting on provision levels is structured to facilitate a discussion of the median voter theorem.     

产品质量安全网络舆情下的企业网络声誉研究

产品质量安全问题成为顾客衡量企业声誉的重要内容,尤其在社会化媒体下,产品质量舆情对企业网络声誉的影响作用日趋明显。文章从网络舆情演化视角出发,分析了产品质量舆情对企业网络声誉的影响,建立了顾客感知的产品质量舆情与企业网络声誉的关系,基于两者间的相关性,以天涯论坛为例运用产品质量舆情量化了企业网络声誉值。结果显示,运用产品质量舆情的时间衰减特性、帖文内容影响分布、舆情演化高潮期等特性比仅仅依靠帖文数量测度企业网络声誉更具有合理性,为企业提升企业网络声誉提供了一种有效途径。     

Inflation,expectations, and cyclical aggravations

Summary The negative relationship between output and producers' expectations and the positive relationship between output and consumers' expectations, as hypothesized by Brunner and Meltzer, is very sensitive to the choice of the model. These Brunner-Meltzer predictions would not be supported by the results derived from a Fisherian model with or without a Phillips curve specification, such as the models presented in this paper.Within the context of the Fisherian model, an increase in the degree of adjustment by one or both sectors will lead to greater price stability. For policy purposes, this result suggests that the increase in available information or significant reduction in the costs of acquiring information may yield greater price stability. A welfare gain may also be achieved if the parameters are interdependent such that information conveyed to one sector effectively leaks to the other. In the latter case, the policy approach may be to try to influence the exogeneous expectations parameters and the lag adjustment between them.Recent studies have proposed that the labor market—or the market for new entrants and transitory workers—is the arena in which all firms participate. Hence, most of the information regarding price movements could be efficiently gathered in this market. If this is an accurate presumption, thenB* would, to some extent, be a function then of the labor market adjustment parameterA*. Further amendments to the model presented in this paper would, however, be necessary to incorporate this alternative.     

The political economy of immigration quotas

It is argued, using a single-sector general equilibrium model, that the economic interests of citizens of a host country in relation to immigration depend on their factor ownership. Using the median voter model, it is argued that whether a country admits further immigration depends on the country's factor ownership distributions, the generosity of its transfer programs, as well as on the prejudices about immigrants that its citizens hold.on leave from Moorhead State University.     

网络民意吸纳机制研究

网络已经成为民众表达利益、权利诉求的重要通道。我国现有的网络民意吸纳渠道主要包括政府门户网／政府一新闻门户网的网络民意吸纳模式、两会代表的网络问政、政府的网络信访模式、网络舆情监测模式和政务微博模式五种模式。但是在现实中,网络民意有着自身的缺陷,公权力也面临着各种困境,这些缺陷和困境致使网络民意的吸纳机制出现了不畅。作为政府,应该在方法层面,优化网络问政平台的建设;在战略层面,要推行网络协商民主建设。