The village midwife program and infant mortality in Indonesia

Indonesia introduced over 50,000 midwives into villages in the 1990s to provide primary care to women lacking easy access to health facilities. It seems plausible to argue that the significant reduction in infant mortality that occurred from about 1993–94 was a consequence of this. The paper estimates the village midwife program's impact on infant mortality, using data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey. Regressing mortality outcomes against choice of services would lead to biased estimates because of the correlation between service choice and unobserved individual characteristics. Furthermore, non-random placement of midwives could bias estimates of their impact on infant mortality. This study overcomes such endogeneity problems by aggregating mortality outcomes and program prevalence at district level and taking account of district fixed effects in estimating the program's impact. Surprisingly, the results do not support the hypothesis that the midwife program was responsible for the observed decline in infant mortality.     

The Social Performance and Distributional Consequences of Contract Farming: An Equilibrium Analysis of the Arachide de Bouche Program in Senegal

This paper is an empirical analysis of the impact of a contract-farming program in Senegal. We examine the access of poorer community members to contracts and the effect of the program on the income of participants. The program performs very well on both counts: participants and nonparticipants are indistinguishable by wealth measures and farmers increase their income substantially by participating in the program. We attribute the former to the program's mobilization of local information through its use of village intermediaries, permitting the substitution of social collateral for physical collateral and making the program more accessible to the poor.     

Financial intermediation,regulation and the formal microcredit sector in South Africa

This article evaluates demand- and supply-side aspects of the formal microcredit sector in South Africa and the environment in which the sector is regulated. Although South Africa has a competitive financial sector relative to a sample of upper middle-income countries, the historical bias towards formal sector banking resulted in a lack of appropriate credit instruments for poorer people. In 1992, new regulations facilitated the legalisation of microfinance institutions and, by 2000, the sector had grown to over 2 per cent of total credit extended by the monetary sector, with over 1 300 institutions supplying microcredit to the public. The article presents the first statistics of different types of microcredit institutions as well as some of their disbursement trends, recorded since 1999 by the Micro Finance Regulatory Council. Thereafter, the demand for credit is assessed between 1995 and 2000, before best-practice regulation and South Africa's degree of compliance are discussed.     

An economic survey of northern Sulawesi: turning weaknesses into strengths under regional autonomy

The separation of North Sulawesi and Gorontalo into two provinces in 2001 complicated the issue of making regional autonomy work for northern Sulawesi, a region far removed from Indonesia's centre of power. Although the region had come through the economic crisis relatively well, the over-reliance on coconuts and the lack of a focus for dynamic development remained a challenge. Tourism, mining and services were the most dynamic sectors but, for different reasons, none of these sectors can be relied on for steady long-term growth. With the selection of the corridor from Manado to Bitung as one of Indonesia's 13 integrated economic development zones (Kapet), and given the new North Sulawesi province's potential role as a ‘gateway’ to Northeast Asia, the longer-term prospects for this province are brighter than those of Gorontalo. Nevertheless, capitalising on North Sulawesi's potential remains a formidable challenge.     

Indonesia's Clean Air Program

Unprecedented industrial development during the last two decades, accompanied by a growing population, has increased the amount of environmental damage in Indonesia. A critical environmental problem is the rising level of air pollution in several large cities. This has stimulated the government to develop a national program designed to control the quantity of pollutantsin the air. However, the program's impact on economic performance and incomes has not yet been studied systematically. This paper analyses the expected impact of the clean air program on national economic performance and household incomes for various socio-economic groups.     

Credit guarantee schemes as an instrument to promote access to finance for small and medium enterprises: An analysis of Khula Enterprise Finance Ltd's individual credit guarantee scheme

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) face many constraints, such as lack of credit, which hinder them from reaching their job-creating potential. This article focuses on the constraints that increase banks' risk in lending to SMEs, and how credit guarantee schemes are used to overcome some of them. In South Africa, Khula Enterprise Finance Limited, a government initiative, operates three such guarantee schemes. This article explains the functioning of one of the schemes, namely Khula's Individual Credit Guarantee Scheme. Its performance is evaluated with reference to international best practices. Although it is generally found to operate efficiently, there are various aspects concerning the functioning of the scheme that influence negatively the willingness of banks to participate. These problems need to be addressed, as the authors are convinced that a credit guarantee scheme, with all its problems, still remains a viable way for the government to lower the normally high risk involved for banks in dealing with SMEs, and in this way to entice them to serve SMEs.     

The Role of Seedyam Procurement Arrangements for Yam Production Specialisation in the Smallholder Cropping System of Anambra State,Nigeria

Abstract: Seed yam constitutes a major input for the effective production of ware yam. This study was carried out to estimate the relative economic advantages of two alternative seed yam procurement arrangements to yam production specialisation in two geographically dispersed areas. The two arrangements are the seed yam credit in Anambra Local Government Area and the own stock supply of seedyam in the Abakaliki Local Government Area. Data were collected through structured personal interview schedules from 108 farming households. Results of the study indicated amongst other things that the quantity of seedyam, size of farm and cash return were greater in the credit than in the own stock seedyam arrangement. In addition, cash flow and risk incidence were more favourable in the credit arrangement. The study concluded by recommending the extension of some of the features of the credit system to other yam producing areas so as to improve the inherently low cash returns attributed to ware yam production. Résumé: L'igname de semence constitue un facteur déterminant pour une production rentable d'ignames de consommation courante. Cette étude a été faite en vue d'évaluer les avantages économiques comparatifs entre deux options d'arrangements relatifs à la spécialisation en production d'ignames dans deux régions géographiquement éloignées. Ces deux options concernent, l'une l'octroi de crédit pour l'acquisition d'ignames de semence dans la collectivité locale d'Anambra, et l'autre la fourniture du stock d'ignames de semence par les exploitants, dans la collectivité locale d'Abakaliki. Les données ont été collectées grâce à des interviews effectuées auprès de 108 exploitants agricoles. Les conclusions de l'étude indiquent, entre autres, que la quantité d'ignames de semence, la superficie de l'exploitation et les revenus en espèces étaient plus élevés dans l'option du crédit que dans l'option de la fourniture d'ignames de semence par les exploitants eux-mêmes. Par ailleurs, la trésorerie et le taux de risque se sont révelés plus intéressants dans l'option du crédit. L'étude a conclu en formulant une recommandation en faveur de l'extension de certaines clauses du système de crédit aux autres régions productrices d'ignames afin d'améliorer les faibles revenus qui caractérisent la production d'ignames de consommation courante.     

Consumer Credit Risk Management in an Emerging Market： The Case of China

I. Introduction By any measure, China is now the world hottest economy, with an astonishing annual real GDP growth rate of 9 percent from 1991 to 2003 and with the world’s largest population of nearly 1.3 billion people. As one of the world’s largest and fastest growing economies,Consumer Credit Risk Management in China87 ?2006 The Authors Journal compilation ?2006 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences there are tremendous opportunities for glo…     

Access to agricultural extension,credit and markets among small‐scale farmers in southern Zambia

This article used survey data to determine the extent to which small‐scale farm households in the Choma district of Zambia's southern province have access to agricultural extension services, credit and markets. The findings show that the majority of the sample households had access to extension and credit services. They also showed that the resource base or wealth of the households — as manifested by farm size, livestock ownership and human capital or management capacity (the household head's training in agriculture) — is a significant factor when accounting for differential access to extension and credit. On the other hand, study findings suggest that farm households are facing problems with marketing their produce under the liberalised agricultural marketing system. Based on these findings, the article discusses recommendations for providing solutions to some of the problems affecting small‐scale farmers in accessing production services.     

Overcoming Information Asymmetries in Low-Income Lending: Lessons from the “Working Wheels” Program

Without access to transportation, the welfare-to-work transition is nearly impossible, yet little is known about the effectiveness of programs designed to improve credit access. Since 1998, Vermont's TANF funds have provided automobile loans through the “Working Wheels” program. We use microlevel data from this program to explore how to cost-effectively provide loans to clients who cannot obtain affordable loans elsewhere. Our results verify the importance of relationship lending, particularly among those without documented credit histories. In the presence of information asymmetries about credit history, our results justify the increased trust placed in clients with whom the bank has a stronger relationship; such clients, ceteris paribus, are less likely to default. We conclude that in the current climate of welfare reform, policymakers should consider programs that encourage welfare recipients to establish and maintain relationships with financial institutions in order to facilitate access to credit and minimize the risk of default.     

基于AHP和DEA的科创型中小企业信用评价研究

我国科创型中小企业普遍缺乏抵押性资产,融资难度大。为减少金融机构与企业之间的信息不对称,提高科创型中小企业的融资能力,构建一套科学、合理的信用指标评价体系显得尤为重要。综合考虑企业的信用状况和经营状况,利用AHP模型计算企业信用评价得分,运用DEA-BCC模型测算企业经济状况得分,综合两者结果构建象限分布图,用来综合评价企业的信用情况。     

Does Other Comprehensive Income Volatility Influence Credit Risk and the Cost of Debt?

We examine the usefulness of other comprehensive income (OCI) to debt investors in nonfinancial companies. Motivated by Merton's (1974) real options framework, we construct a measure of incremental OCI volatility, designed to capture the effect of OCI on overall firm asset volatility, which is a primary driver of credit risk in Merton's (1974) model. We find that the volatility of incremental OCI influences the likelihood of default, credit ratings, and the cost of debt. Overall, our evidence suggests that creditors use information from OCI in their assessment of firm credit risk and in pricing debt contracts.     

Big Fish,Small Pond: The Effect of Rank at Entry on Postsecondary Outcomes

We study whether a student's rank in her program of study in university affects short- and longer-term educational outcomes. Using student-level administrative data from four universities across many cohorts, we show that ranking higher compared to students in the same program in the same year has a positive effect on grade point average and lowers the probability of switching programs at the end of the first year, but has small effects on credit completion, departures, and degree attainment. Our results suggest that being the big fish in the small pond produces moderate advantages in higher education.     

Correlates and Consequences of the 1918 Influenza in South Africa

We study the demographic and economic correlates of the 1918 influenza or “Spanish flu” that killed an estimated 6% of South Africa's population. While the pandemic has received some attention in South African historiography and from social scientists in other contexts, little is known about its long-term impact on the country. Bringing together data from a range of new sources, including population and agricultural censuses, household surveys, and the voters’ rolls, we provide analyses that show, first, the factors that (do and do not) predict flu mortality across South Africa's magisterial districts, and, second, suggest some important consequences of the flu. Our results reveal a large but short-lived demographic shock, and detectable, if small scale, long-term economic consequences.     

Using climate models to improve Indonesian food security

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events exert significant influence on Southeast Asian rice output and markets. This paper measures ENSO effects on Indonesia's national and regional rice production and on world rice prices, using the August Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) to gauge climate variability. It shows that each degree Celsius change in the August SSTA produces a 1,318,000 metric ton effect on output and a $21/metric ton change in the world price for lower quality rice. Of the inter-annual production changes due to SSTA variation, 90% occur within 12 provinces, notably Java and South Sulawesi. New data and models offer opportunities to understand the agricultural effects of ENSO events, to reach early consensus on coming ENSO effects, and to use forecasting to improve agencies' and individuals' capacity to mitigate climate effects on food security. We propose that Indonesia hold an ‘ENSO summit’ each September to analyse the food-security implications of upcoming climate events.     

The effects of credit lines on cash holdings and capital investment: Evidence from Japan

This study examines how credit lines affect corporate cash holdings and capital investment using a hand-collected data on publicly traded Japanese firms from 2006 to 2017. The study compares firms with and without credit lines to investigate the effects of credit lines. The empirical results are as follows: (1) Firms with credit lines hold smaller cash reserves than those without; (2) Firms with credit lines undertake more capital investment than those without; (3) The effects of credit lines are more amplified for financially constrained firms than their counterpart; (4) A close bank–firm relationship plays a positive role in the effect of credit lines on corporate activities.These empirical findings indicate that credit lines can improve firms’ financial flexibility and allow them to use cash holdings held for precautionary reasons to invest. The results also show that credit lines and the attendant implicit bank–firm relationships are complementary to each other. Moreover, having both credit lines and a close bank–firm relationship is important to Japanese firms for their corporate activities. Furthermore, the results imply that the use of credit lines is still relatively undeveloped in Japan, which may be a reason for the country's large corporate savings and lackluster investment.     

Allocative Efficiency of Agrifood Traders: Shrimp Traders in Indonesia

Shrimp is one of Indonesia's most important agricultural export commodities, with an annual export value exceeding $1 billion. If this high-value sector is to remain competitive and continue to grow, rural traders must be able to efficiently allocate scarce labour and factor inputs to trade shrimp. This study tests for factors leading to allocative inefficiency in the shrimp trade, by estimating a stochastic cost frontier on the basis of data from a survey of 200 shrimp traders in Central Java and South Sulawesi. Our results show that larger firms have a distinct cost advantage in trade and, owing in part to greater access to factor markets, are more efficient in allocating factors. Small firms can improve their allocative efficiency and become more competitive by specialising in trading one shrimp variety and by using output contracts to mitigate risk in the output market.     

The level of poverty in South Africa: Consideration of an experiential measure

Poverty is usually measured on a basis that is either subjective (respondent's perceptions) or objective (relating to some externally set standard). This article draws on an ‘experiential’ measure of poverty in which respondents with children report on whether or not they have had sufficient money to feed their children. Data from South Africa's 1994 October Household Survey showed that this and other measures revealed similar levels of poverty. However, the picture drawn of the social distribution of poverty suggests a higher incidence amongst those in squatter settlements and a lower incidence in rural areas.     

Contributing to the African Renaissance vision: The role of South African higher education institutions

President Mbeki is emphasising the vision of an African Renaissance in many of his public addresses. Many multifaceted inputs are required to realise this vision, and human resources development is one of the cornerstones of this ideal. South African higher education institutions could play a major role in this quest by sharing their expertise to upgrade the scientific, economic and educational competencies of all people in Africa. Data analysis shows considerable potential for attracting students from Africa, especially from the Southern African Development Community, to study at South African institutions. Current initiatives for facilitating intellectual mobility across the country's borders lack vision, however. Academic exchange programmes in other countries could serve as models to kick-start the contributions of higher education institutions in South Africa in realising Mr Mbeki's vision for an African Renaissance.     

Credit Markets and the Propagation of Korea's 1997 Financial Crisis

We consider the roles of monetary shocks and tightening credit market conditions in the transmission of South Korea's 1997 financial crisis to the real sector, and compare the relative impacts of these factors on production in light and heavy industries. Using structural regression equations, vector autoregressive models, and the accompanying dynamic forecasts, we find that the ratio of commercial bills dishonored to the total value of bills to be cleared can explain the decline in industrial production more fully than either the decline in the real stock of money or the spread between yields on corporate and government bonds. These results are most emphatic in light industry, for which small and medium-sized firms account for more than 70% of the total value added. Since fluctuations in the dishonored bills ratio may reflect components related to increases in the cost of credit intermediation and its effect on small and medium-sized firms more precisely than the corporate-government bond spread, we interpret the evidence as suggestive of a credit channel and “flight to quality” at work.