The impact of deal‐proneness on WTP estimates in incentive‐aligned value elicitation methods

Even after controlling for hypothetical biases, some incentive‐aligned value elicitation methods still produce different willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) estimates. In this study, we compare WTP estimates from three incentive‐aligned value elicitation methods: real choice experiment (RCE), real double‐bounded dichotomous contingent valuation (RCVM), and Becker–DeGroot–Marschak auction (BDM). We find that participants’ aggressiveness in obtaining low prices (i.e., “deal‐proneness”) influences WTP estimates in the BDM auction, but not those elicited from the RCE and RCVM. The participants with higher levels of deal‐proneness tend to submit lower bids in the BDM auction. The discrepancies in WTP estimates between different incentive‐aligned procedures are narrower for participants with lower levels of deal‐proneness. Our results indicate that the bids in BDM auctions may be understated and the auction mechanism may induce the “gambling behavior” of people who are deal‐prone. That is, whether the BDM auction is truly incentive‐aligned is again called into question. We also discuss the practical implications for food retailers.     

Valuing traceability of imported beef in Korea: an experimental auction approach*

The major objective of this study is to estimate Korean food shoppers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for imported beef with traceability. We use an experimental elicitation method, the random nth price auction, to identify consumers’ valuation for traceable imported beef. We also analyse the effect of different types of information on these valuations. Results indicate that consumers are generally willing to pay a 39 per cent premium for the traceable imported beef over similar beef without traceability. Results also suggest that in contrast to the insignificant effect of positive information, negative and two‐sided information about traceability significantly reduces WTP.     

Willingness to Pay for Multiple Quantities of Animal Welfare Dairy Products: Results from Random Nth‐, Second‐Price,and Incremental Second‐Price Auctions

Nonhypothetical experimental auctions are used to elicit willingness to pay for humane animal care‐certified dairy products: cheese and ice cream. We use second‐price, random Nth‐price, and incremental second‐price auctions in multiproduct, multiquantity, and multiround contexts. The results contrast participants’ bids across different auction mechanisms and different products. Differences in bidding patterns are detected across auction mechanisms as well as products. Our results suggest that subjects on average are only willing to pay a premium price for one unit of humane animal case‐certified ice cream but not for multiple quantities.     

Impact of Purchase Intentions on Full and Partial Bids in BDM Auctions: Willingness‐to‐pay for Organic and Local Blueberries

We conduct a series of Becker–DeGroot–Marschak (BDM) auctions to elicit consumers' willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) for organic and local blueberries. Participants' intentions to purchase the auction product were collected to determine how purchase intentions for the auction products affect their partial bids (WTP for an additional attribute) as well as full bids (WTP for the auction product). The results suggest, as expected, that full bids from participants with purchase intention for the auction product are significantly higher than those from participants without purchase intention. However, the partial bids, which are inferred from the full bids, for organic and local attributes are consistent across participants with different purchase intentions. Therefore, if the focus of a BDM auction is consumers' WTP for product attributes, purchase intentions may not be an important influence on the value.     

Design Factors Influencing Willingness‐to‐Pay Estimates in the Becker‐DeGroot‐Marschak (BDM) Mechanism and the Non‐hypothetical Choice Experiment: A Case of Biofortified Maize in Zambia

Two of the experimental methods used to estimate willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) for a non‐market good, the Becker‐DeGroot‐Marschak (BDM) mechanism and the non‐hypothetical choice experiment (nHCE) often lead to significantly different WTP estimates, complicating the choice between the methods. In Zambia the same group of researchers used both techniques to evaluate WTP for orange maize, which provides more vitamin A than other varieties. This provided an opportunity to analyse the sources of the difference. In the BDM experiment, one group of respondents was provided with more training opportunities than the other, and made higher bids. Accounting for lexicographic behaviour in the nHCE reduced the estimated WTP. These two design factors together resulted in a decrease in the WTP difference for orange maize (1,279–632 ZMK) although the difference remains statistically significant. More training was also shown to eliminate the effects of different orders in which maize varieties were presented.     

Comparing Open-Ended Choice Experiments and Experimental Auctions: An Application to Golden Rice

We use two experimental valuation methods to estimate consumer demand for genetically modified golden rice. The first is an open-ended choice experiment (OECE) where participants name the quantities of golden rice and conventional rice demanded at each of several price combinations, one of which will be randomly chosen as binding. This allows us to estimate market demand by aggregating demand across participants. This estimate of market demand also allows us to estimate own-price elasticity and consumer surplus for golden rice. Comparing willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates from the OECE with those from a uniform-price auction, we find that OECE WTP estimates exhibit less affiliation across rounds, and the effects of positive and negative information under the OECE are more consistent with prior expectations and existing studies. We also find that, while auction WTP estimates more than double across five rounds, OECE WTP estimates are stable across rounds and are always roughly equal to those from the final auction round.     

Value elicitation for multiple quantities of a quasi‐public good using open ended choice experiments and uniform price auctions

Choice experiments and experimental auctions have become popular mechanisms for estimating willingness to pay (WTP). However, these methods have primarily been used for estimating WTP for single units of goods. We analyze the results from experimental auctions and choice experiments in the context of multiple quantities of a quasi‐public good (animal welfare product). We show that the use of WTP values for a single unit of a product, a common practice in experimental valuation literature, can result in underestimation of aggregate demand. We use and compare open ended choice experiments (OECE), second price Vickrey auctions, and random Nth price auctions as mechanisms for valuing WTP. Our results also suggest that individual level demand estimates from OECE are less elastic than demand estimates from uniform price auctions.     

How well do conservation auctions perform in achieving landscape‐level outcomes? A comparison of auction formats and bid selection criteria

This paper studies the performance of auction design features regarding pricing mechanisms and bid selection criteria for securing wildlife zones across different holdings. We compare two pricing mechanisms: a discriminatory‐price auction and a uniform‐price ascending auction, and four bid selection criteria on the basis of: total bid, bid‐per‐value ratio, bid‐per‐area ratio and a mixed criterion where bids are formed on the basis of cost but they are selected based on the bid‐per‐value ratio. We develop a best‐response group‐bidding model for a discriminatory‐price auction where bidders form optimal group bids for individual wildlife zones. In the uniform‐price ascending auction, individual landholders respond to prices, which are successively raised by the auctioneer and whenever all the landholders from a single zone agree to participate (i.e. the first zone is formed), the auction stops. Based on numerical simulations using a bio‐economic model of malleefowl conservation, we observe that the discriminatory‐price auction is more cost‐effective than the uniform‐price ascending auction. However, the budgetary cost‐effectiveness of a discriminatory‐price auction is sensitive to bidder uncertainty about the number of competing bidder groups and the highest cost of establishing a wildlife zone among these groups. In terms of bid selection, the mixed bid selection criterion performs best. We discuss the policy implications of these findings.     

Measuring rural consumers’ willingness to pay for quality labels using experimental auctions: the case of aflatoxin‐free maize in Kenya

Aflatoxins are a common health hazard in tropical countries, especially in rural areas. New methods to reduce aflatoxin levels in food staples, as well as cheaper test methods, are being developed, but consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for these improvements is unknown. A survey was conducted with a representative sample of rural consumers (1,344 in total, 63% women) in all major maize‐production zones of Kenya. The survey included an experimental auction with maize products of different qualities. The results showed that many rural consumers were aware of aflatoxins, but few understood their health risks. Respondents were willing to pay a premium for maize tested for aflatoxins and labeled, but asked a high discount for maize that was visibly contaminated with moldy grain. The premium was higher for respondents with education and in regions with aflatoxicosis outbreaks. Knowledge of aflatoxins substantially reduced the overall WTP, but did not increase the WTP for tested maize. Welfare analysis indicates that mandatory testing would result in substantial benefits if the cost of testing can be lowered to below the premium.     

A Sealed‐bid Double Auction Experiment on German Milk Quota Exchanges

Standard double auctions perfectly mimic the neoclassical idea about the functioning of markets. The efficiency of the market outcome and speed of adjustment towards equilibrium have been studied in the literature to validate economic expectations. However, only a few real world examples outside the financial sector exist. In 2000, Germany implemented a sealed‐bid double auction mechanism for trading milk quota. The two main features of this mechanism are: (1) a sealed‐bid double auction that produces excess demands that are covered by state reserves free of charge, and (2) a variable price band that is used to exclude price bids above a certain range. To study these regulations a sealed‐bid double auction experiment is simulated and run with students. It is shown that the regulations lead to significant losses in welfare that are caused by direct effects and by an imperfect adjustment of individual bidding behaviour. Further, learning effects throughout the experiments appear to be very limited. Thus, complex auction mechanisms may need to be thoroughly tested before being introduced in the real world.     

Willingness to pay for brands: a cross‐region,cross‐category analysis

Using survey data collected in multiple locations (California and Texas in the United States and Revohot in Israel), we quantify category‐ and location‐specific variations of consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for brand products after controlling for consumer characteristics. We find that consumers have a similar qualitative assessment of brand value in different product categories across different locations. That is, consumers have a stronger preference and higher WTP for brands in consumer electronics, followed by clothing and then processed food, and the lowest in fresh produce. Furthermore, we simulate price premiums and market shares of brands relative to generic products in different categories. Simulation results suggest that brands in fresh produce have the highest price premium but lowest market share. Despite the similarities, the magnitude of WTP for brands as well as the simulated price premium and the corresponding market share in the same product category are location variant. The similarities and dissimilarities suggest validity of having global brand strategies adapted to local conditions, that is, the so‐called “thinking globally and acting locally” strategy.     

Comparing Serial,and Choice Task Stated and Inferred Attribute Non‐Attendance Methods in Food Choice Experiments

A number of choice experiment (CE) studies have shown that survey respondents employ heuristics such as attribute non‐attendance (ANA) while evaluating food products. This paper addresses a set of related methodological questions using empirical consumer data from a CE on poultry meat with sustainability labels. First, it assesses whether there are differences in terms of marginal willingness to pay estimates between the two most common ways of collecting stated ANA (serial and choice task level). Second, it validates the self‐reported ANA behaviour across both approaches. Third, it explores the concordance of stated methods with that of the inferred method. Results show that WTP estimates from serial‐level data differ from those from choice task‐level data. Also, self‐reported measures on choice task ANA are found to be more congruent with model estimates than those for serial ANA, as well as with inferred ANA.     

Using an economic experiment to estimate willingness‐to‐pay for a new maternal nutrient supplement in Ghana

Scaling up access to supplements designed to prevent undernutrition, such as new small‐quantity lipid‐based nutrient supplements (SQ‐LNS), may require distribution via both public channels and retail markets. The viability of SQ‐LNS retail markets will hinge on household‐level demand. We use an economic experiment to characterize initial willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) for a maternal SQ‐LNS product in Ghana. WTP is positive for most participants, though below the estimated cost of production for many. WTP varies depending on income, assets, and parity status. These findings have implications for the design of public health policy and hybrid public–private delivery mechanisms.     

Farmers’ Willingness to Pay for a Tuberculosis Cattle Vaccine

We use contingent valuation (CV) and choice experiment (CE) methods to assess cattle farmers’ attitudes to and willingness to pay (WTP) for a bovine tuberculosis (bTB) cattle vaccine, to help inform vaccine development and policy. A survey questionnaire was administered by means of telephone interviews to a stratified sample of 300 cattle farmers in annually bTB‐tested areas in England and Wales. Farmers felt that bTB was a major risk for the cattle industry and that there was a high risk of their cattle getting the disease. The CE estimate produced a mean WTP of £35 per animal per single dose for a vaccine that is 90% effective at reducing the risk of a bTB breakdown and an estimated £55 for such a vaccine backed by 100% insurance of loss if a breakdown should occur. The CV estimate produced a mean WTP of nearly £17 per dose/per animal/per year for a vaccine (including 100% insurance) which, given the average lifespan of cattle, is comparable to the CE estimate. These WTP estimates are substantially higher than the expected cost of a vaccine which suggests that farmers in high risk bTB ‘hotspot’ areas perceive a substantial net benefit from buying the vaccine.     

Consumer willingness to pay for genetically modified food in Kenya

Genetically modified (GM) crops are popular in many regions of the world, but their deployment in Africa is hindered by safety concerns and regulatory issues, although the continent is in dire need of boosting its food production. Although consumers' acceptance of GM food has been analyzed in many continents, no such studies have been conducted in Africa. Therefore, a survey of 604 consumers was conducted in Nairobi, Kenya, in 2003, to gauge consumers' awareness of GM crops, their willingness to pay (WTP) for GM food, and the factors that influence their WTP. Consumers' knowledge of GM crops was limited and only 38% of the 604 respondents were aware of GM crops. People in higher education and income groups were more aware than others. Regardless, people were generally appreciative of the technology, and a large majority (68%) would be willing to buy GM maize meal at the same price as their favorite brand. Consumers were, however, concerned about possible side effects, especially on the environment and biodiversity. WTP was estimated using a double‐bounded dichotomous choice model, and the mean WTP was found to be 13.8% higher than the average price of non‐GM maize meal. Perceptions of health risk, and ethical and equity concerns had a negative influence on the likelihood of purchasing GM maize meal, whereas trust in government to ensure food quality had a positive influence on WTP. People with at least some secondary education and those in the high‐income category were more likely to purchase GM maize meal at the same price. The study concludes that, because awareness is still low, appropriate communications are needed to involve the consumer in the debate. Consumers' acceptance in this study was high, but the research needs to be expanded to rural areas, where most consumers live, and other survey methods need to be explored.     

Volatility in Cereal Prices: Intra‐ Versus Inter‐annual Volatility

Intra‐annual (within crop year) price volatility and inter‐annual (between crop years) price volatility are measured for wheat, maize, rice, barley, oats and rye. A set of explanatory variables is used in a pooled regression to explain variations in these price volatilities. With low cereal stocks, supply (yield) shocks (defined here as volatilities, as for the price volatilities) mostly influence inter‐annual volatility while other influential factors are the crude oil price and exchange rate. Cereal demand and interest rate shocks combined with low stocks affect intra‐annual volatility, while other explanatory factors include exchange rate and crude oil price shocks. The derivatives market activity appears to have no significant effect on either intra‐ or inter‐annual volatility. In contrast, large cereal stocks and a well‐functioning international cereal market reduce the effects of shocks in the explanatory variables on both intra‐ and inter‐annual volatilities.     

Online Survey Data Quality and Its Implication for Willingness‐to‐Pay: A Cross‐Country Comparison

Using online surveys to elicit consumer preference is gaining popularity because of several advantages offered by this method. Past research mainly focuses on the comparison between online surveys and other survey modes. Few have explored methods of using online survey tools to improve data quality for consumer willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) estimates. This article determines the impact of using a validation question (VQ) approach that asked survey respondents to select a particular answer on improving online survey data quality across six countries. Results show that survey data quality is a common problem in online surveys across countries and the severity of this problem differs significantly. Using VQs might detect the respondents who are less careful in answering survey questions, thus providing less reliable answers. The econometric models for respondents who correctly answer VQs (pass VQs) perform significantly better than the models for respondents who incorrectly answer VQs (fail VQs). The WTP estimates for respondents who pass and fail VQs differ significantly; and in general the WTP estimates for respondents passing VQs have smaller variances than those for all respondents and for respondents failing VQs.     

The Impacts of Elicitation Context on Stated Preferences for Agricultural Landscapes

Statements of willingness to pay (WTP) have been shown to be dependent upon the framing of the hypothetical market. In this paper we investigate the effects of variations in the timing and location of choice experiment questions concerned with conservation of a UK national park, as research involving measurement of psychological well‐being suggests potential differences for the same individual dependent upon when and where preferences are elicited. We apply the choice experiment technique to the valuation of changes in upland agricultural and semi‐natural landscapes in the Peak District National Park in the UK, to investigate whether timing and location of elicitation (context) affects the value associated with changes in ecosystem services under different management regimes. Four treatments are employed – using the same sample of individuals answering the same choice scenarios – to measure WTP ex‐ante (off site), in situ (on site), and ex‐post at two different time intervals (off site). We show that our on‐site (in situ) treatment generates very different estimates of preferences than any of the off‐site treatments. That stated preferences associated with environmental goods are so context dependent may have implications for the use of stated preferences in policy analysis in terms of identifying how environmental policy is funded and the divergence in value attributed to sampling different populations.     

Optimal conservation investment for a biodiversity‐rich agricultural landscape*

This study develops a theoretical and empirical framework for optimal conservation planning using satellite land cover data and economic data from a farm survey. A case study is presented for a region within the South‐west Australia Biodiversity Hotspot (Nature 403, 853). This Biodiversity Hotspot is a focus for conservation investment as it combines a relatively high level of biodiversity with severe threat to the biodiversity from agriculture. The conservation planning model developed determines the optimal set of bush fragments for conservation. This model can also be used to assess the trade‐off between the budget and a vegetation species metric. Results from the case study show that, without an effective conservation scheme that at least fences fragments, significant plant biodiversity losses will occur in the North East Wheatbelt Regional Organisation of Councils region of the WA wheatbelt over a 10‐year period. A perfect price discriminating auction scheme could reduce the costs of conservation by around 17 per cent relative to a fixed‐payment scheme; however, a fixed payment on outcome (measured as change in the species metric) scheme represents a viable second‐best alternative, to a conservation auction, where conservation spending is spatially targeted.     

Consumers' willingness to pay for organic rice: Insights from a non-hypothetical experiment in Indonesia

As in many high-income countries, there is increasing awareness towards organic farming in many low- and middle-income countries. Sustained local demand is an essential requirement for further adoption of organic farming by smallholders, who typically have only limited access to export markets. Until now, only few studies have explored the local willingness to pay (WTP) for organic products in low- and middle-income countries in real purchase situations. This paper analyses the consumers' WTP for organic rice in urban and suburban Indonesia using an incentive-compatible auction based on the Becker–DeGroot–Marschak (BDM) approach. We further study the effect of income and a randomised information treatment about the benefits of organic food on respondents' WTP. Estimates suggest that respondents are willing to pay an average price premium of 20% compared with what they paid for conventional rice outside our experiment. However, our results also indicate that raising consumers' WTP further is complex. Showing participants a video about health or, alternatively, environmental benefits of organic food was not effective in further raising WTP. The results can be used as a basis for the design of alternative awareness measures to increase knowledge, interest and demand for organic food.