Inaccurate forecasts of the logistic growth model for Nobel Prizes

Modis [Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 34 (1988) 95] reports that a logistic growth (LG) model of the number of U.S. Nobel Prize recipients provides an excellent fit for the period 1901-1987. This model forecasts that approximately 235 Americans will receive a Nobel Prize by year-end 2002 and that a total of 283 Americans will eventually receive a Nobel Prize. We use recent data (1901-2002) on prize recipients to provide a revised test of this model. The results of extensive holdout forecasting and nonlinear least-squares fits to the data provide convincing evidence that the LG model systematically underpredicts the number of Nobel Prizes awarded to Americans. For instance, the cumulative number of American recipients as of year-end 2002 is 270, significantly larger than the LG forecast of 235. We argue that other approaches to forecasting the number of future Nobel awards should be considered.     

Accumulation, innovation and catching-up: an extended cumulative growth model

This paper presents an extended model of cumulative growth inwhich the effects of innovation and catching-up are considered.Innovation adds another source of cumulative growth to thatof traditional models and allows a consideration of the importanceof non-price determinants of international competitiveness.Catching-up is the major force leading to convergence in productivityowing to the effect of the diffusion of technology. The modelallows one to analyse whether cumulative forces may lead tostable growth and whether this solution generates convergencein productivity levels. The structural model is tested for aset of OECD countries over the period 1965–94.     

Long-run Effective Demand in the US Economy: An Empirical Test of the Sraffian Supermultiplier Model

The Sraffian supermultiplier is a model of demand-led growth that stresses the importance of the autonomous components of aggregate demand (exports, public spending and autonomous consumption). This article tests empirically some major implications of the model employing macroeconomic data for the United States. In particular, we study the long-run relation between autonomous demand and output through cointegration analysis. The results suggest that autonomous demand and output are cointegrated and that autonomous demand exerts a long-run effect on output. There is also some evidence of simultaneous causality, especially in the short-run. Movements in autonomous demand and in the investment share are also found to be positively related, with Granger-causality going from Z to I/Y.     

The American frontier: Technology versus immigration

How important was international immigration for the US and its demography during the nineteenth century? This paper investigates, quantitatively, its effect on the westward movement of population and the regional and secular changes in fertility. Beside immigration, two alternative forces are considered: technological progress and the land policy (the Homestead Act). An optimal growth model with endogenous fertility and migration is calibrated, and counterfactual experiments reveal that the main driving forces were productivity growth and the declining cost of transportation. International immigration played a lesser role.     

Euro depreciation and trade asymmetries between Germany and Italy versus the US: industry-level estimates

Since April 2014 to March 2015, the European Central Bank expansionary monetary policy instigates a huge depreciation of the euro in terms of dollar. According to the mainstream monetary theory, these dynamics should make the exports cheaper and at the same time make the imports more expensive. Has real depreciation of the euro helped in the improvement of European countries’ trade balances? Following the main methodologies in the recent literature, our study analyses the effects of this depreciation both for Italy and Germany towards the US. We use industry-level data at monthly frequency. The results are different from each bilateral relationship. We find that 11 industries register a long-run improvement (8 for Italy and 3 for Germany). The J-curve effect is proven just in six cases, always for Italy. The inverted J-curve effect is proven in eight cases, four for Germany, and four for Italy. These results seem to be an indirect demonstration of the structural asymmetries between German and Italian economies: German economic system is more able to be competitive with a strong currency, than Italy.     

Education public financing and economic growth: an endogenous growth model versus evidence

Using an Endogenous Growth Model with physical and human capital and unemployment (Mauro and Carmeci in J Macroecon 25:123–137, 2003), we study the effects of subsidies to education in economic growth. According to the model, we conclude that government subsidies to education only enhance economic growth conditional on unemployment and that this relationship is negatively influenced by unemployment. We provide evidence from a broad panel data of countries that confirms the importance of unemployment in the relationship between subsidies to education and economic growth but dismiss its importance as a direct determinant of economic growth.      

Technology, demand and distribution: a cumulative growth model with an application to the Dutch productivity growth slowdown

This paper argues that the case for real wage growth restraint,and the consequent restoration of profitability, which the mainstreamconsensus regards as a necessary condition for sustained outputand productivity growth, is based on weak foundations, becauseit neglects the negative impact of wage moderation on productivitygrowth. Using a general Keynesian growth model, which integratesa (wage-led or profit-led) demand regime and a productivityregime (incorporating the productivity-growth enhancing effectsof higher demand and higher real wages), the conditions areidentified under which real wage restraint fails to raise outputand productivity growth. The model is applied empirically tothe Netherlands (1960–2000).     

Semi-endogenous versus Schumpeterian growth models: testing the knowledge production function using international data

Using various indicators of innovative activity and product variety in the OECD countries over the past century, this paper tests first- and second-generation models of economic growth. The estimation results give evidence in favour of Schumpeterian models, while the semi-endogenous growth theories are shown not to be consistent with the data.      

Bank loan versus financial lease: how do traditional and innovative approaches within the banking sector influence economic growth? A comparative analysis between the US and China

ABSTRACT

The argument over the effects of financial structures on economic growth remains unsettled. This study, therefore, compares the dynamic correlation and lead–lag relationship between the different financial approaches within the banking sector (that is, traditional bank loans versus innovative financial leasing) and economic growth. We employ a continuous wavelet analysis using time-series data from 1982–2017 from the US (the world’s largest developed country) and China (the world’s largest developing country). The empirical results show that (1) episodes of significant correlation usually emerge during periods of reform, crisis or policy implementation; and (2) in China, traditional banking promotes economic growth in the long term, while the real economy only imputes the evolution of banks during critical economic reforms in the short term. Meanwhile, financial leasing could only promote the development of the real economy under suitable regulation; and (3) in the US, before the crises, the irrational growth of the real economy could increase bank assets, while during the crises, the traditional banking approach harms economic growth, and after the crises, financial leases play an important role in recovery. Therefore, we suggest that policymakers should establish adequate policies and regulations to solve the situation.     

Private versus social returns to human capital: Education and economic growth in India

This paper investigates whether differences between private and social returns to education of government sector employees can contribute to an explanation of the “micro–macro paradox” in the literature on education and growth. We hypothesize that in India educated people find privately rewarding jobs in a sector in which social returns are low, namely the government sector. This could help explain high returns to education at the micro level and small or negative coefficients on education growth in growth regressions at the macro level. The empirical results, which are consistent with this hypothesis, are based on an analysis of state-level data from India spanning 40 years.     

Overall effects of financial liberalization: financial crisis versus economic growth

ABSTRACT

The contribution of this work consists firstly in decomposing the effect of financial liberalization into a global direct positive effect on growth and an indirect negative effect via financial fragility and crisis. We show that the aggregate positive effect of financial liberalization outweighs the negative partial or temporary effect. Secondly, contrary to previous works, we distinguish many types of financial reforms. We found that equity market liberalization is the most important component in reducing economical costs associated with financial crisis. Thus, equity market liberalization is the most important favoring growth. Interest rate liberalization enhances significantly the probability of crisis leading to a short-run indirect effect more important than other financial reforms. Thirdly, we improved our work by addressing model uncertainty using Bayesian Model Averaging techniques to choose appropriate indicators for model crisis specification.     

Cultural diversity and economic growth: Evidence from the US during the age of mass migration

We exploit the large inflow of immigrants to the US during the 1870–1920 period to examine the effects that within-county changes in the cultural composition of the US population had on output growth. We construct measures of fractionalization and polarization to distinguish between the different effects of cultural diversity. Our main finding is that increases in cultural fractionalization significantly increased output, while increases in cultural polarization significantly decreased output. We address the issue of identifying the causal effects of cultural diversity by using the supply-push component of immigrant inflows as an instrumental variable.     

The impact of the net percentage growth rate in the number of small firms on differential state-level employment growth rates in the US: an exploratory empirical note

This brief exploratory empirical note seeks to identify key determinants of geographic differentials in the percentage growth rate of state-level employment in the US, with the primary focus being on the percentage net growth rate in the number of small firms (i.e., those with fewer than 20 employees) in each state, where this variable serves as a de facto reflection of ‘entrepreneurship’. In the interest of identifying other key factors that influence state-level employment growth rates, the effective income tax rate in each state, quality of life elements and labour market considerations are also included in the analysis. The study period runs from the year 2000 to the year 2007, ending just prior to the ‘Great Recession’. The estimation results imply that the state-level employment growth rate in the US was an increasing function of the percentage net growth rate in the number of small firms in each state. Thus, it appears that the small firms growth rate may in fact be a significant source.     

The determinants of economic growth of transition economies: Economic reform versus initial conditions

Abstract

This study analyzes factors for economic recovery of transition economies in Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States for the period of the 1990s. Covariance structure analysis is employed to estimate the structural equation system, and exploratory factor analysis is conducted to measure initial conditions and economic policy as latent variables. The result of analysis shows that the effect of initial conditions is negative and the impact of economic reform on growth is positive. However, the negative effect of initial conditions had overridden the positive impact of economic policy as of 2000. The reason that transition economies could not recover their pre-transition GDP level (even after ten years of transition history) seems to stem from the negative influence of initial conditions on growth rather than the slow speed of economic reform.     

Economic growth, skill-biased technical change and wage inequality: A model and estimations for the US and Europe

In recent literature skill-biased technical change has been viewed as a major cause for wage inequality. Some modelling and presentation of stylized facts have been undertaken for US time series data. A preliminary study of wage inequality in a model with knowledge as input in an aggregate production function has been presented by Riddell and Romer [General Purpose Technologies and Economic Growth, 1998, MIT Press]. Although some important forces determining wage inequality are widely accepted we know little about the quantitative impact of each source and differences across countries. We present a growth model of the Romer type with innovation-based technical change and two skill groups where the growth of knowledge, the relative supply of the two skill groups, externalities and substitution effects among the two groups are the driving forces for wage inequality. We undertake estimates for US time series data and contrast those estimates with results from some European countries. In particular, we compare parameter estimations for US and German time series data. The paper concludes that there is less wage inequality across skills in Europe in contrast to the US on the macroeconomic level. But, considering disaggregated data we observe some increases in inequality for Germany, too. Although our model reveals important variables for the explanation of wage inequality there may, however, also be other factors, such as trade unions, which have impacted the wage spread.     

Growth versus equity: A CGE analysis for effects of factor-biased technical progress on economic growth and employment

With factor-biased technical progress described as labor-saving and skill-biased technical changes, there are concerns that technological innovation can lead to unemployment and widen inequality in the economy. This study explores impacts of factor-biased technical changes on the economic system in terms of economic growth, employment, and distribution, using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that technological innovation contributes to higher level of economic growth with productivity improvements. However, our analysis suggests that economic growth accompanied by skill- and capital-biased technical progress disproportionately increases demand for capital and high-skilled labor over skilled and unskilled labor. This shift in the value-added composition is found to deepen income inequality, as more people in higher income groups benefit from skill premium and capital earnings. Our results suggest that policymakers should prepare a wide range of policy measures, such as reforms in educational programs and taxation systems, in order to ensure sustainable growth.     

The hunt for S-shaped growth paths in technological innovation: a patent study*

Since the works by the business cycle theorists in the 1930s, no attempts have been made to study empirically the long term evolution paths of individual technologies starting with long time series. This is an empirical exploration and confirmation of the now almost assumed image or metaphor of the way technology develops; that it follows an S-shaped growth path which is commonly associated with a similar shaped diffusion function of entrepreneurial activity. The paper also confirms the diversity of technology dynamics and explores how technological cycle takeoffs appear to be clustered within certain historical epochs. The results have implications for our understanding of the evolution paths of individual technologies, and of the evolution of technological systems and waves of innovation. By use of computational statistics, logistic growth functions are fitted to US patent stocks, 1920–1990, at a detailed level of aggregation, including chemical, electrical/electronic, mechanical, transport and non-industrial technologies. Some practical considerations when developing an empirically testable model of innovation cycles are addressed in the paper as well.