The import price index with trade barriers: theory and evidence

The standard economic import price index hinges on an assumption of free trade. Applying the index to situations with barriers to trade yields biased results compared to a true import price index. To circumvent this problem, it is common to use average prices, such as unit values, as an aggregator function. However, the use of average prices is not rooted in economic theory. In this paper, I generalise the economic import price index to allow for barriers to trade in the form of quantity constraints. To illustrate the theoretical framework, I use the case of imports of textiles to Norway from 1988 to 1997. I find that a standard economic import price index, such as the Laspeyres index, grossly overstates import costs and that this bias is significantly reduced by using unit values.     

Changes in social welfare and sustainability: Theoretical issues and empirical evidence

We analyze the time derivative of a Ramsey-Koopmans social welfare function (R-K SWF), as an indicator of genuine investment and current change in social welfare (CSW) conditions, when feedback or arbitrary rules are used for selecting policy variables in non-optimizing economies. When policy variables are selected arbitrarily, their accounting prices should determine current CSW in addition to the accounting prices of the economy's assets and genuine investment should be adjusted accordingly. We use our theoretical framework to characterize CSW conditions for non-optimizing economies, based on direct estimation of accounting prices. We use our theoretical model to provide empirical evidence regarding the CSW conditions for the Greek economy.     

Global Ex-vessel Fish Price Database Revisited: A New Approach for Estimating ‘Missing’ Prices

The Global Ex-vessel Fish Price Database (Ex-vessel DB) reported in Sumaila et al. (J Bioecon 9(1):39–51, 2007) was the first comprehensive database that presents average annual ex-vessel prices for all commercially exploited marine fish stocks by nationality of the fishing fleet. It contained over 30,000 reported price items, covering the period from 1950 to the present, and supplemented missing prices with estimates based on prices from a different year, species group or fleet nationality. This paper describes a revised missing price estimation approach, focused on the computation of annual average international prices for each species group, adjusted to domestic prices using the real exchange rate based on national purchasing power parity. Key advantages of the new approach are that it allows a larger number of reported prices to be used in the price estimation, and accounts for relative price level differences that exist between countries. Our new approach should improve the estimates in regions where reported prices are scarce or non-existent by linking domestic prices to the trends in international prices. Our analysis, based on the revised ex-vessel price estimates (in real 2005 USD), shows that the global marine fisheries landings have generated total value of USD 4.2 trillion since 1950, including USD 100 billion in 2005.     

Re-examining the exchange rate pass-through into import prices using non-linear estimation techniques: Threshold cointegration

We document a significant threshold cointegrating relationship among effective nominal exchange rates and import prices. Using quarterly data for five industries of 16 OECD countries, we find that the degree of pass-through improves dramatically from the 50% average documented in the literature once threshold effects are recognized. The results of our threshold cointegration model show that import prices respond faster and by a larger extent to nominal exchange rate shocks than is the case for more conventional models. These findings give empirical support to the hypothesis that an equilibrium rate of pass-through exists (e.g. [Bacchetta, P., & Van Wincoop, E. (2005). A Theory of the currency denomination of international trade, Journal of International Economics 67, 295–319; Devereux, M., Engel, C., & Storgaard, P. (2004). Endogenous exchange rate pass-through when nominal prices are set in advance, Journal of International Economics 63(2), 263–291]).     

促进抑或阻碍 ——技术标准影响国际贸易的理论机制及实证分析

本文主要研究了技术标准贸易效应的理论机制。基于12个国家1994—2011年的国别面板数据的估计结果显示,在一定程度上,技术标准对于进口和出口都有促进作用,但是,技术标准和进出口之间的关系总体上呈现出倒U型的特征;人口规模和贸易规模正相关,实际有效汇率和出口负相关,而与进口正相关;贸易伙伴国GDP的增加会促进出口,本国GDP和进口正相关;技术创新和外商直接投资对于进出口贸易都有显著的促进作用。     

抑制我国房地产市场过度投机的政策研究

房价的过快上涨引起了社会的普遍关注,如何抑制房价的过度波动成为政府管理的重要目标。从中国房价的实际来看,很多研究者认为是投机推动了房价的较大波动。中国房价的上涨已经无法用价值规律和其他经济学原理来加以解释,很多城市的房价收入比和房屋租售比远远超过国际警戒线,如此离谱的涨幅背后,房地产投机炒作行为功不可没,抑制投机成为关键的手段。利用有关模型,本文分析了投机动力的产生机理,并且研究了房地产市场中过度投机产生的原因,包括投机的进入门槛低,地方政府、住宅房产的特性和不完善的租赁市场等对投机的影响等。根据这些诱因,从防止出现金融危机和削弱投机动力降低投机预期收益的角度,可能的政策组合包括建立和完善保降性住房政策、改革政绩考核指标、完善税制结构、取消预售制度或建立预售款第三方托管制度和完善租赁市场等。     

Real Rates of Return in Electricity Supply: New South Wales,Tasmania and Victoria*

This paper uses a newly developed economic return model to estimate the real (inflation adjusted) costs of supply, and rates of return, for the electricity systems in three States over very long time periods. It is shown that because of a combination of public ownership and the use of historical cost accounts, the real return on capital tends to fall with the onset of rapid inflation such as occurred in the mid 1970s In NSW in particular the rapid growth in demand for electricity in the 1970s due to falling real electricity prices and considerable increases in other energy prices has given rise to a major investment program and rapidly developing excess capacity. Higher real electricity prices in the 1980s, combined with the economic slump of 1982, resulted in low or negative growth rates in demand Much of the boom I bust mentality evident in all three States may have been avoided or ameliorated had the electrical supply authorities been required to earn even a very modest real rate of return of (say) 4 or more per cent p.a. which is considerably below the (pre-tax) return earned in the corporate sector.     

The international wealth channel: a global error-correcting analysis

This article investigates empirically whether shocks to asset prices transmit into the trade balance through consumption and investment for a group of five of the world??s most industrialized countries. We refer to this transmission channel as the international wealth channel and estimate a GVAR model including 29 countries with quarterly data over the period 1981Q1?C2006Q4. Generalized impulse response functions show that after a negative stock price shock US and UK consumption decreases, followed by an improving trade balance. This pattern is also visible for France, but not for Germany and Japan. Stock price decreases are only associated with decreasing investment and an improving trade balance in the UK. For housing, we do find that a negative shock to UK housing prices decreases domestic investment and improves the trade balance. However, this pattern is not visible in the other countries. Finally, a domestic negative real exchange rate shock only has a significantly positive impact on the US trade balance.     

MEASURES OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIVE PRICES FOR CHINA AND THE USA

Abstract.  In this paper we assemble a measure of international relative prices to gauge the average amount by which prices in China and the USA differ from the prices of their trading partners. Our estimated weighted average of relative prices for China and the USA are the first to use the significantly revised purchasing power parities embodied in the price data from the World Bank's World Development Indicators. Our analysis reveals several findings of interest. First, interactions between the structure of trade and the levels of relative prices are sufficiently important to induce divergences between the weighted average of relative prices and conventional real effective exchange-rate indexes. Second, revisions embodied in World Development Indicators price data generally lower the estimate of US international relative prices. Third, net exports are inversely related to the estimate of US international relative price, but, for China, the correlation is positive. Estimating this correlation for other countries reveals no systematic pattern related to the level of development alone. Fourth, unlike previous work, using our price measures we find that an increase in US prices relative to Chinese prices raises the share of China's exports to the USA. Finally, there is a distinct possibility of eliminating the long-standing differential in income elasticities of US trade in empirical applications.     

我国FDI、经济增长与国内投资结构关系的实证研究--基于协整方法(1979～2004)

本文利用协整方法，选取实际外商直接投资、GDP、国内投资、出口、进口与人民币对美元的真实汇率多个宏观经济变量进行建模，发现了这些变量之间存在的长期均衡关系。在此基础上进行了VECM冲击反应分析，考察了变量问的动态作用机制。最后利用Granger因果关系检验从另一个角度验证了上述模型得出的结论。     

Book Reviews

Abstract

This paper argues that exchange rate models rooted in the theory of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and balanced trade are fundamentally mis-specified, as evidenced by the disjuncture between: (1) the empirical evidence, which largely refutes PPP; and (2) the empirical result that ‘real’ productivity shocks are associated with observed secular trends in exchange rates. In the former case we have a theory without convincing evidence, and in the latter case we have empirical evidence in want of a consistent theory. If looked at from the perspective of a ‘cost of production’ theory of prices, such empirical results might not be so theoretically anomalous. So-called ‘real’ variables (especially productivity and unit labor costs), let in through the side door as ‘shocks’ to PPP equilibrium, may in fact be part and parcel of the formation of prices of production on an international scale through capitalist competition. The primary conclusion is that the empirical evidence supports a cost of production theory of the terms of trade and the real exchange rate. The empirical evidence in support of the Balassa–Samuelson model of the exchange rate is re-interpreted in this light. In this interpretation, parity holds only in terms of rates of return on investment which, in the classical tradition, are presumed to equalize across industries internationally.     

房价结构调整与经济结构转型

目前,我国住宅房地产价格明显偏离正常值。对房价结构的分析表明,房价结构中33.86%的资金流向了政府。经过房价结构这一隐秘机制的运行,本来属于居民消费领域的购房资金被转变为政府投资资本,导致经济结构中投资与消费之间的比例失衡。这与我国加快经济结构调整,增加消费在促进经济增长中的比重相悖。为应对上述情况,加快优化房价结构是促进经济结构转型的有力举措。     

The Impact of Chinese Exports on Global Import Prices*

This paper evaluates the evidence bearing on the question of whether China's buoyant export growth has led to significant changes in the import prices, and thus inflation performance, of its trading partners. This evidence suggests that the impact of Chinese exports on global import prices has been, while non‐ negligible, fairly modest. We identify a statistically significant effect of US imports from China on US import prices, but given the size of this effect and the relatively low share of imports in US GDP, the ultimate impact on US consumer prices has likely been quite small. Moreover, imports from China had little apparent effect on US producer prices. Finally, using a multi‐country database of trade transactions, we estimate that, since 1993, Chinese exports lowered annual import inflation in a large set of economies by 0.25 percentage point or less on average.     

直面房地产投资全球化

房地产投资全球化是经济全球化一重要组成部分,其优势在于分散风险、优化投资组合,以获取稳定的收益.伴随金融创新,房地产投资方式日趋多样化,且REITs已成为间接投资的主要工具.面对国际资本对中国房地产业的冲击,政府部门应从制度建设入手,提高信息透明度,强化市场监管及可行的调控措施.     

European Integration and Production in the French Economy

Effects of greater European integration on the French economy are explored with an aggregate cost function. Input direct price elasticities are inelastic, but greatest (absolute value) for capital and lowest for imports. Cross-price elasticities suggest inputs are substitutes and are higher for domestic inputs than domestic input and imports pairs. As trade restrictions fall, effects on domestic input demand may increase as substitution elasticities rise. Inverse output supply price elasticities indicate domestic input prices are relatively important factors affecting consumption goods prices and import prices more important for investment goods. Thus, import price decreases may stimulate investment and growth. (JEL F14 , O10 , O12 )     

Monetary policy and asset prices

The purpose of this paper is study the effect of monetary policy on asset prices. We study the properties of a monetary model in which a real asset is valued for its rate of return and for its liquidity. We show that money is essential if and only if real assets are scarce, in the precise sense that their supply is not sufficient to satisfy the demand for liquidity. Our model generates a clear connection between asset prices and monetary policy. When money grows at a higher rate, inflation is higher and the return on money decreases. In equilibrium, no arbitrage amounts to equating the real return of both objects. Therefore, the price of the asset increases in order to lower its real return. This negative relationship between inflation and asset returns is in the spirit of research in finance initiated in the early 1980s.     

Single Beta Models and Currency Futures Prices

The conditional capital asset pricing model is applied to foreign currency futures prices, covariance risk being measured relative to excess returns from a broadly diversified international portfolio of equities. Positive time-varying risk premia are found in all five currencies tested when the difference between the US and the average foreign interest rates is used as an instrumental variable for the expected excess return from the common stock portfolio.     

Cost savings and deregulation: an analysis of fuel cost savings in deregulated electricity markets

Unregulated utilities face competitive pressures that lead to cost-minimizing activities, but regulated monopolies in the US electricity generation sector face pressures only from regulators who must balance a desire for lower prices against the need for the utility to generate a sufficient return to encourage investment. This paper analyses the cost-minimizing behaviours of regulated utilities by comparing their average input coal costs with those of deregulated utilities purchasing coal from the same mine during the same month of the same year. Results indicate that coal-fired electric plants operating in deregulated electricity markets negotiate prices that are 6.1 ¢/MMBtu (3.5%) less than their regulated counterparts. In percentage terms, this is a fairly small discount for deregulated plants, but it happens to be on par with the restructuring gains that others have estimated for labour and nonfuel costs.     

Anticipated Fiscal Policy Changes and Goods Market Adjustments

Abstract. Government policies are frequently known to be temporary and thus their termination is perfectly anticipated. These foreseen policy changes must be consistent with equilibrium in both the goods market and asset markets. Potential problems arise because prices often play dual roles, both as final goods prices, and as asset prices, as components of rates of return. We show how the economy accommodates an anticipated policy change depends upon its production flexibility and its structure. With flexible investment, an anticipated reduction in government expenditure is fully accommodated by capital accumulation. When investment involves adjustment costs, the marginal utility of wealth and the price of capital both jump so as to maintain equality among rates of return. Goods market clearance is maintained by a combination of increases in consumption and investment. Extensions of the model to include inventories and to a small open economy are also considered and contrasted.     

Nonlinear exchange rate pass-through in industrial economies

This article presents theoretical arguments for a nonlinear pass-through relationship for import and export prices and investigates the relationship empirically. The theoretical argument is based on the menu-cost approach in which small absolute changes in exchange rates may not prompt price changes because the costs of doing so exceed the extra profits generated for firms involved in international trade. This relationship is investigated empirically using quarterly data for the period 1979q1-2015q1 for a sample of 17 countries. In the case of import prices, evidence is found of nonlinear adjustment consistent with the theoretical model in 4 out of 17 cases. In the case of export prices, such a relationship is only evident for two economies in the sample. However, for both the import and export price cases, a significant positive nonlinear relationship is found for the two largest economies in the sample, i.e. the United States and Japan.