THE USE OF TENDENCY SURVEYS IN EXTRAPOLATING NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

A well-known way of using tendency survey data is the construction of Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs). It is rather peculiar that CLIs pretend to predict macroeconomic aggregates, while their construction is not consistent with the way actual macroeconomic statistics are compiled. This paper contains preliminary results of an attempt to integrate tendency survey indicators into the framework of the Dutch Quarterly Accounts. We conclude that tendency survey indicators can contribute to an explanation of trends in "real" economic variables. Many of these indicators lead the Quarterly Accounts indicators. They can, therefore, contribute to a timely estimation of National Accounts aggregates.     

A BALANCED SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM

This paper describes the construction of a disaggregated system of 262 national accounts for the U.K. economy in 1975. The objective is to remove the discrepancies between income, expenditure, production and financial estimates which occur in practice. This is done with the aid of a generalized least squares algorithm for adjusting national accounts with subjective estimates of reliability of the various account items. The balanced system of accounts provides the cross-section data base needed for the estimation of a consistent multisectoral dynamic model of the U.K. economy and yields the classification converters and input-output tables necessary for such a model.     

SOME CONCEPTUAL DILEMMAS IN THE USE OF PRESENT NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The following note is a very concise summary of a paper² that was presented at the 17th General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth at Montvillargenne, August, 1981. As such it may be considered a new paper, although it contains practically all the conceptual issues of the original paper. As in the original paper its intention is only to place these issues before a wider audience, while specific solutions will have to wait for a more detailed treatment. All issues concern certain conceptual dilemmas, arising in particular in the use of national accounts when available concepts do not coincide with those for which data are sought. A decision to change the existing basic concepts would however require not only the support of the scholars in this field but also the co-operation of the users of national accounts. Due to extreme summarizing, certain statements are now fairly compact—compared with the original paper. It is nevertheless hoped that the basic problems still shine through. The following note gives instances in which the traditional national accounts, as established according to existing rules and statistics, may not suffice for actual data requirements, yielding differences in growth rates of several percentage points.     

MISUSE AND USE OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AS A WELFARE INDICATOR: SELECTED ANALYTICAL AND MEASUREMENT ISSUES

Few economic relationships have been as scrutinized as that between SNA measures of national product, investment and consumption, and welfare. The present paper contrasts SNA economic production and welfare to total production and welfare within the Walrasian framework of usefulness and costliness. An evaluation of deductions and additions to the SNA made by Nordhaus-Tobin, Zolotas, Richard and Nancy Ruggles, Kendrick, Eisner and Jorgenson-Fraumeni, in their research on extended product and income accounts and improved indicators of welfare reveals numerous unresolved analytical and measurement issues; and reaffirms the usefulness of the SNA as a fundamental, initial, welfare indicator.     

AN ANALYSIS OF REVISIONS OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS DATA FOR 40 COUNTRIES

The paper analyzes annual revisions of figures for G.N.P. and 8 of its components in 40 countries. It arrives at the conclusion that first estimates are very often significantly biased downwards, especially Private Consumption, Fixed Investment, G.D.P. and G.N.P. Also successive revisions are sometimes correlated (negatively in most cases). The distribution of revisions differ as between developed and developing countries.     

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AS AN INSTRUMENT FOR THE ANALYSIS OF THE SOURCES OF STAGFLATION AN EXAMPLE: FRANCE AND GERMANY, 1971–79

Stagflation is a combination of an increasing rate of inflation with a decreasing rate of real growth. It appears when the inflationary gap of production costs raises faster than the inflationary gap of expenditures on Gross Domestic Marketable Product. The decomposition of these two gaps into their main elements gives then the possibility of determining the sources of the inflationary increase in costs and the causes of the relative retardation of the inflationary increase in expenditures. The main cause of stagflation in 1974 for France and Germany was the huge rise in oil prices which had not been immediately followed by an equal rise in prices of their exports. The inflationary rise in wages is an almost permanent factor of stagflation in France; in Germany its responsibility is involved only before 1975. In France the insufficient increase in the inflationary gap of expenditures was mainly due to the restrictive monetary policy and to the official price regulation. In Germany the restrictive monetary policy also contributed to the slowdown in demand in 1974 and 1975. In 1977, on the contrary, the main cause of stagflation was the slackening of export demands due to the world recession and the revaluation of the DM.     

PROPOSALS FOR A HOMOGENEOUS TREATMENT OF HEALTH EXPENDITURES IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS*

International comparisons always raise difficult problems, more especially when they deal with services which are jointly financed by households and government in varying shares with varying procedures in each country. This is obvious in the case of health where the area itself, the principles of economic analysis and the UN method of National Accounting appear to be either vague or unwieldy. Before any proposal it is necessary to review what is involved in the concept of service and the possibility of delimiting the health field inside which economic measures are feasible. Then using the SNA concept and with the help of six interdependent tables we propose two aggregates: the National Medical Consumption and the Current National Expenditure on health. The detailed and harmonized breakdowns of these global results make it possible to compare the structures of values, prices and quantities on an international base.     

JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN BRITAIN, 1895–1941

This history of National Accounts in Britain is done with two specific considerations in mind. First, the role of the economist John Maynard Keynes—as theoretician, compiler, supporter and user—is addressed. This role is substantial and has been greatly misunderstood or misrepresented by a large part of the literature. Second, the pioneering contributions made at the start of the 20th century by Alfred Flux, Arthur Bowley and Josiah Stamp, and later by Colin Clark, are detailed. The debates between these men mark the emergence of National Accounts as a serious discipline. Their work was supported by the earlier theoretical contributions of Alfred Marshall, and by practical developments, in particular the instigation of a Census of Production in 1907. Taken together, the two considerations tell a good part of the story of the emergence of National Accounting on the world stage.     

ACCOUNTING FOR NONMARKET HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION WITHIN A NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FRAMEWORK

The satellite accounts illustrated in this paper reflect the household's role as a producer and an investor in durables as well as a consumer by modifying the NIPA's to (1) incorporate the value of nonmarket (unpaid) household work into GDP; and (2) treat expenditures on consumer durables as investment and measure the value of the services those durables provide. Additionally, an Input–Output (I–O) model highlights the household's functions as a producer and investor in much greater detail for the year 1992 by incorporating a household industry for each time-use activity and by showing the inputs to and outputs from each household industry's production.     

PRICES IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FRAMEWORK: A CASE FOR COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS*

There are serious questions about the social costs and benefits of extending the role of prices in the national accounts. The costs may be greater, and the benefits smaller, than is commonly supposed. Many important uses of price (and other) data do not require that these data be organized within an elaborate—or even any—framework of national accounts. Also, the basic price (and other) data are still too often very scanty and rough. Would it not be better to devote available resources to improving these data rather than trying to force them, prematurely, into an elaborated set of national accounts?     

A NEW ARCHITECTURE FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The key elements of a new architecture for the U.S. national accounts have been developed in a prototype system constructed by Dale W. Jorgenson and J. Steven Landefeld, Director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. The focus of the U.S. national accounts is shifting from economic stabilization policy toward enhancing the economy's growth potential. A second motivation for the new architecture is to integrate the different components of the decentralized U.S. statistical system and make them consistent.