Firm valuation, abnormal earnings, and mutual funds flow

We examine the valuation effects of overall demand for corporate equities combined with the influence of abnormal earnings and unexpected funds flow. Our results indicate that the expected and unexpected net new total flow of funds into all stock mutual funds do not by themselves have a meaningful effect on firm equity valuation. However, we find the combination of unexpected funds flow and realized abnormal earnings have significant and important valuation effects. Importantly, the valuation impact is greatest for those firms with high earnings growth potential that also operate in an environment characterized by high information asymmetry.

Specification analysis of corporate equity financing decision: a conditional residual approach

This article revisits the debate on the nature of private placements by specifying that informed insiders make trading decisions in the secondary market and equity issuance decision in the primary equity market (Lee and Wu (2008)). This article uses conditional residuals from the insider trading regression (abnormal insider trades) and conditional residuals from equity financing choice regression (unexpected equity financing choice) to measure private information. An important advantage of conditional correlation coefficient approach over the two-stage approach (Lee and Wu 2008) in testing the presence of asymmetric information is that the former is bounded by −1 and 1 and thus permits cross-sectional comparisons the relatedness between abnormal insider trades and unexpected equity financing choice.

The relationship between implied and realized volatility: evidence from the Australian stock index option market

This paper examines the relationship between the volatility implied in option prices and the subsequently realized volatility by using the S&P/ASX 200 index options (XJO) traded on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) during a period of 5 years. Unlike stock index options such as the S&P 100 index options in the US market, the S&P/ASX 200 index options are traded infrequently and in low volumes, and have a long maturity cycle. Thus an errors-in-variables problem for measurement of implied volatility is more likely to exist. After accounting for this problem by instrumental variable method, it is found that both call and put implied volatilities are superior to historical volatility in forecasting future realized volatility. Moreover, implied call volatility is nearly an unbiased forecast of future volatility.

Is the January effect still alive in the futures markets?

The January effect concerns the fact that small capitalization stocks have historically outperformed large capitalized stocks in January. We analyze evidence as to whether this anomaly can be exploited in the futures markets as a speculative investment or to add risk-adjusted value to portfolio performance. We find that the January effect is still alive in the futures markets on the Value Line minus S&P 500 spread trade, but that the marginal liquidity of the Value Line stock index futures contract has made it very risky to exploit the effect. Historically from 1982/3 to 2004/5, the trade has been profitable. This anomaly was also exploitable through a Russell 2000 minus S&P 500 spread trade from 1993/4 to 2004/5.

Liquidity commonality and spillover in the US and Japanese markets: an intraday analysis using exchange-traded funds

This article examines the intraday returns and liquidity patterns of the Standard & Poor’s Depositary Receipts (SPY) and the iShares Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc. (MSCI) Japan Index Fund (EWJ). These exchange-traded funds seemingly have very different holdings, namely, US stocks and Japanese stocks. Our findings suggest that some commonality exists in the returns and liquidity of these apparently different assets. First, there are intraday, daily and monthly patterns in the measures of liquidity for both funds. Second, the measures of liquidity are correlated across these two assets. Third, there is evidence of intraday spillover in the mean, volatility and depth from the SPY to the EWJ, but daily spillover is not observed. Our study extends two evolving strands of the literature: the integration of world markets in terms of returns behavior, and the other strand suggests that liquidity may have a systematic, or market-wide, component. This paper provides direct evidence of the integration between the US and Japanese markets because contemporaneous trading prices for the US (SPY) and Japanese (EWJ) indices are employed.

The impact of exchange rate risk on international asset pricing under various market structures

This article derives international equity pricing relations by taking into account inflationary exchange risk under various forms of market segmentation/integration. In a mean-variance framework, a two-country, two-period, two-goods model is analyzed under three different market structures: segmented, mildly segmented and integrated. It is found that as long as investors are consuming imported goods, in the presence of market frictions, inflationary exchange risk is an important determinant of real equity prices. This is the case because inflationary exchange rate affects the real purchasing power of investors.

Home Equity,Household Savings and Consumption

The home-owning family’s equity is a piggybank that can be broken open by borrowing. Each borrowing increases liabilities and cash equally, initially leaving net wealth unchanged. When those funds are spent and cash balances fall, consumption increases even as net wealth can decline. In a dynamic optimization, the marginal propensity to consume from net wealth is not always positive and can be positively correlated with housing debt.

Interday and intraday volatility: Additional evidence from the Shanghai Stock Exchange

After examining both the interday and intraday return volatility of the Shanghai Composite Stock Index, it was found that the open-to-open return variance is consistently greater than the close-to-close variance. Examining the volatility of interday returns and variance ratio tests with five-minute intervals reveals an L-shaped pattern, or more precisely, two L-shaped patterns, starting with a small hump during both the morning and the afternoon sessions, with the morning session having a much higher interday volatility than the afternoon session. This L-shaped interday volatility is supported by the similarly shaped intraday volatility pattern. This result suggests that the high volatility of intraday returns for the market open is not entirely due to the trading mechanisms (call auction in the market opening) but also due to both the accumulated overnight information and the trading halt effect. The five-minute breaks after the auction and blind auction procedures are the two major driving forces which exaggerate the high intraday volatility observed at the market open.

Implied measures of relative fund performance

We evaluate the relative performance of funds by conditioning their returns on the cross-section of portfolio characteristics across fund managers. Our implied procedure circumvents the need to specify benchmark returns or peer funds. Instead, fund-specific benchmarks for measuring selection and market timing ability are constructed. This technique is robust to herding as well as window dressing and mitigates survivorship bias. Empirically, the conditional information contained in portfolio weights defined by industry sectors, assets, and geographical regions is important to the assessment of fund management. For each set of portfolio characteristics, we identify funds with success at either selecting securities or timing-the-market.

Market Segmentation Effects in Corporate Credit Rating Changes: The Case of Emerging Markets

We examine stock market reactions to corporate credit rating changes in 26 emerging market countries included in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Market Index. We hypothesize and test the notion that emerging market firms in the American Depository Receipts (ADRs) markets are more likely to purchase ratings from the Big Two (Moody’s and S&P), and that they react more strongly to the announcements of corporate rating changes by Moody’s or S&P than to those of raters in local markets. We compare the effect of credit rating changes of the Big Two in two emerging stock markets: local markets (local currencies) and ADR markets (U.S. dollars). We find significant price reactions in the ADR markets, and insignificant reactions in local markets, and conclude that there is capital market segmentation in ADR markets for credit rating changes of emerging market firms. We find evidence that investors react more strongly in the ADR markets than local markets because they require higher costs of capital for firms cross-listed both in the ADR markets and local markets due to greater expected bankruptcy costs and foreign exchange risks of those firms. We also report that stock markets react significantly, not only to rating downgrades, but also to upgrades in the ADR markets.

The Impact of Rating Agency Reputation on Local Government Bond Yields

This study examines a sample of 12,562 dual-rated local government bond issues including 6,104 split-rated issues to determine which rating agency has the greatest impact on yields. Using a database of municipal bond issues from 1986 to 2002, we show that Moody’s rated significantly more issues than S&P, and that Moody’s ratings were more conservative. However, from 1993 to 1997, there was a reduction in ratings disagreements and in Moody’s market share. Beginning in 1995, Moody’s received negative publicity related to a Department of Justice anti-trust investigation. Moody’s appears to have responded by sharply increasing their relative conservatism in 1997. From 1986 to 1994, Moody’s ratings had a greater impact on bond yields than S&P ratings, but their dominant influence on yields disappears in the recent sample period from 1995 to 2002.

The nature of listed real estate companies: property or equity market?

This paper addresses the question of whether shares of public real estate companies should be treated as real estate or as equity investments. Because theoretical considerations do not suffice for making such a classification, we empirically investigate correlation structures and cointegration relationships of private and public real estate and equity markets for the United States and the United Kingdom. Our results suggest that public real estate stocks show similarities to the general stock market with regard to short-term return co-movements. For long-term investment horizons, the interdependence between direct and securitized real estate is much stronger. However, in the latter case, real estate stocks substantially lead the private property markets.

Are candlestick technical trading strategies profitable in the Japanese equity market?

We show that candlestick charting, the oldest known form of technical analysis, is not profitable in the Japanese equity market over the 1975–2004 period. Candlestick technical analysis, which was developed in Japan in the 1600s, is deeply intertwined with Japanese culture and is very popular in Japan. However, there is no evidence candlestick technical trading strategies add value in either the entire 30 year period, in three 10 year sub-periods or in bull or bear markets.

Evidence of feedback trading with Markov switching regimes

Previous research has concluded that the degree of return autocorrelation observed in index returns varies linearly with the volatility of the series, and that feedback traders are at least partly responsible for this phenomenon. Using daily Australian bond and equity market returns, we test this conclusion directly by using a Markov switching model for changing variance that explicitly allows the autocorrelation of returns to vary with the volatility regime. We find evidence that a significant proportion of investors in both the Australian equity and bond markets are positive feedback traders and are responsible for the observed increase in negative autocorrelation in index returns during periods of high and increasing volatility.

The persistence of earnings per share

The persistence of innovations to accounting earnings per share, EPS, has important implications for equity valuation, yet it remains a largely neglected subject. This paper employs various empirical tests in order to measure the persistence of shocks to EPS for the S&P 500 index. Within the I(0)/I(1) paradigm the empirical evidence rejects the I(1) specification, supporting instead a trend-stationary representation. When fractional orders of integration are considered, the results indicate that the detrended series is long memory (d  >  0) and mean reverting (d < 1). The responses decay slowly to zero, albeit 50 quarters after an initial shock the responses remain significantly different from zero. Likewise, the variance ratio evidence suggests that the effect of a shock persists over time spans characteristic of the business cycle.

Transaction Costs and Price Volatility: New Evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange

We investigate the volatility impacts of the full commission deregulation in Japan in October 1999, and find that the deregulation overall tends to significantly increase price volatility in the Japanese equity market, using alternative model specifications and control variables. This finding contrasts with previous evidence that implies a positive relation between transaction costs and price volatility, while consistent from the converse with the hypothesis proposed by Stiglitz (1989) and Summers and Summers (1989). Our results suggest that imposing higher transaction costs might still be a feasible policy tool for stabilizing the market by curbing short-term noise trading.

Strategic timing of annual earnings announcements: evidence from an order-driven market

Using Spanish data, this paper examines, for the first time, the differences in the intraday response of an order-driven market to earnings announcements made during trading and non-trading hours. We show that the speed of reaction depends on timing of the announcement: for overnight (daytime) announcements, the improvement in liquidity is (not) immediate. This finding could explain why Spanish firms prefer to release the bad (good) earnings announcement in trading (non-trading) hours. This strategic timing differs from the traditional disclosure policy in American markets, suggesting that different microstructures may react differently to news releases and, consequently, drive the strategic timing of corporate disclosures.

Information effects of dividends: Evidence from the Hong Kong market

The literature has suggested that earnings and earnings forecasts provide stronger signals than dividends about future performance of a firm. We test the information effects of simultaneous announcement of earnings and dividends in the Hong Kong market, distinguished by three interesting features (concentrated family-shareholdings, low corporate transparency, and no tax on dividends). Our results show significant share price reactions to unexpected earnings and dividend changes, but dividends appear to play a dominant role over earnings in pricing, a result contrary to findings in the literature. The signaling hypothesis works primarily for firms with earning increases, while the maturity hypothesis works mainly for firms with earnings declines.

The Inflation Hedging Characteristics of US and UK Investments: A Multi-Factor Error Correction Approach

Historic analysis of the inflation hedging properties of stocks has produced anomalous results, with stocks often appearing to offer a perverse hedge. This has been attributed to the impact of real and monetary shocks to the economy, which influence both inflation and asset returns. It has been argued that real estate should provide a better hedge: however, empirical results have been mixed. This paper explores the relationship between commercial real estate returns and economic, fiscal and monetary factors and inflation for US and UK markets. Comparative analysis of general equity and small capitalization stock returns is carried out with inflation divided into expected and unexpected components. The analyses are undertaken using an error correction approach. In the long run, once real and monetary variables are included, asset returns are positively linked to anticipated inflation but not to inflation shocks. Adjustment processes are, however, gradual and not within period. Real estate returns, particularly private market returns, exhibit characteristics that differ from those of stocks.

Return enhancement trading strategies for size based portfolios

Recent theoretical work suggests that definitions of market efficiency that allow for the possibility of time-varying risk-premia will generally lead to return sign predictability. Consistent with this theory, we show that a logit model based on the lagged value of the market risk premium is useful for successfully predicting the return sign for CRSP small decile portfolio returns, but not large ones. We additionally employ this model in market timing simulations of micro-cap mutual funds in which investment can actually be made. The results indicate that a market-timing strategy based on our return-sign forecasting model outperforms a buy-and-hold strategy for 13 of 14 micro-cap funds studied. On average, the buy-and-hold strategy produces an average compound return of 11.98% per annum versus an average of 16.60% for the market-timing strategy. Nevertheless, trading restrictions make the return-sign forecasting model more practical to employ by the micro-cap fund portfolio manager rather than the individual fund investor.