会议通知北大核心SSCI

在过去的30多年中,中国经济快速发展,确立了世界第二经济大国的地位。在后金融危机时代,中国的发展面临来自其他新兴经济体的挑战与竞争。中国如何在世界经济陷入滞涨和金融危机可能继续扩散的情况下处理好与其他新兴经济体之间的竞争与合作是一个值得研究的重大问题。     

新兴经济体昂首走向世界 金砖四国发强音

包括中国在内的新兴经济体在此次全球金融危机中的亮眼表现,让世界明白了新兴经济体的重要性。世界需要新兴经济体近年来,美日欧经济依然是世界经济重要引擎,但新兴和发展中经济体对世界经济增长贡献率不断上升,成     

金融危机后中日经贸的新变化与新策略

作为世界第二大经济体和第三大经济体,中国和日本也是亚洲地区两个最重要的经济体。中日两国的经济相互依赖,有着密不可分的经济合作。日本领先的技术和中国广阔的市场形成优势互补,双方合作空间非常大。2008年,全球金融危机的爆发给稳定发展中的中日经贸关系带来了一     

经济波动背景下的中国会展业

由金融危机引发的经济危机对世界经济造成严重冲击:欧美经济面临衰退,国内经济增速放缓,海外市场萎缩,企业经营陷入困境……危机之痛正波及中国,金融危机正迅速向其他经济体传染,年轻的中国会展经济也无法独善其身。而随着危机的不断深化,相应风险还会次第显露出来……     

人民币国际化的现状分析

金融危机爆发以来,中国经济的持续增长使中国再次成为世界经济的焦点。随着中国国际贸易的不断发展,人民币的国际地位逐渐上升。而金融危机对世界原有主要经济体的打击也为人民币实现国际化提供了有利时机。因此,明确人民币当前的国际地位对抓住时机推动人民币国际化进程是有益的。     

欧美复苏重击新兴市场

在发达经济体重归增长的同时,新兴市场将从资本流入转向资本流出,流动性紧缩将引爆过去资本带来的高杠杆,造成新兴市场国家的经济衰退。在过去的5年,肇始于美国次贷的全球金融危机,使得发达经济体的增长几乎停滞,政府债务飙升。美国学者莱因哈特和罗格夫的研究认为,在金融危机发生后的三年内,发达经济体深陷危机泥沼的情况下,新兴市场成为全球经济的领头羊,包括中国     

浅论金融危机下国有企业的应对策略及建议

一、背景 随着金融危机的爆发,全球各主要经济体的金融市场和实体经济受到严重冲击,由于近年来中国经济对外开放程度的扩大,包括国有企业在内的中国经济也遭受了一定的损失,并有可能还将扩大或延续.     

全球量化宽松、新兴经济体与国际金融治理

美日欧等发达经济体为了应对美国金融危机等带来的巨大冲击,采取了量化宽懂的货币政策,但是却对新兴经济体的经济稳定带来了很大影响,因此新兴经济体也采取了一系列措施应对。但是新兴经济体的应对政策受到各种因素的影响,虽然发挥了一定的作用,仍然存在很大的局限性。量化宽松政策从整体来说给新兴经济体带来了金融危机以及严重的不确定性。虽然没有造成像美国金融危机和欧债危机那样直接的影响,但是也让新兴经济体面临着持续的金融挑战。对于新兴经济体来说想要避免被量化宽松政策带来的负面情况所影响,就必须采取各种政策措施,从而保证本国金融体系以及经济体系可以稳定发展。     

未来东盟——金融危机下的东盟商机

在当今世界经济一体化和区域经济一体化的过程中，中国一东盟自由贸易区正脱颖而出。这是一个拥有19亿消费者的区域，被称为“未来世界第三大经济体”。与金融危机的席卷下苦苦挣扎的欧美经济相比，已经从10年前的亚洲金融危机中恢复过来的东盟此次并未遭受太大的影响。事实上，对于区域合作越来越成熟的中国和东盟国家来说，金融危机所带来的或许是更多的机会。     

坚定信心 应对危机——全球金融危机下“中国制造”如何实现新跨越

源自美国的金融海啸已经演变成全球性金融危机,格林斯潘称之为近百年来最严重的金融危机。目前,金融危机已对全球实体经济产生了巨大的冲击,2008年世界经济已明显放缓,下行风险逐步加大,前景更加不确定,预计2009年全球经济增长率为2.2%,发达经济体经济将下降0.3%。作为外贸依存度高达60%的开放大国,中国经济正面临巨大挑战。     

国际金融危机与世界经济前景

国际金融危机目前已经发展到第二阶段,其影响从发达国家扩展到发展中国家,从金融领域蔓延到实体经济。2008年发达国家经济已经陷入衰退,全球经济增长率大幅放慢。鉴于国际金融危机还在继续恶化,2009年全球经济增长率会进一步降低。但我们认为,房地产市场2009年下半年可能会趋于走稳,油价下跌,通货膨胀压力减轻,由于主要大国采取政府干预措施以及经济政策的国际协调,全球经济发生20世纪30年代那样大萧条的可能性不大。除了短期内经济衰退之外,这场国际金融危机的中长期影响将是深远的。     

金融危机与区域经济发展模式的转变——以沿海四大区域经济模式为例

全球性的金融危机已经开始对我国实体经济产生较明显的影响,代表我国四大区域经济发展模式的苏州地区、温州地区、泉州地区及东莞地区经济也在此次危机中遭受了不同程度的冲击。本文依据此次金融危机前的数据,从人均经济指标、经济活动主体特征、贸易方式、经济开放度等方面综合比较了四种模式的异同,并利用2008年的数据,通过比较外贸出口额、失业率等八个经济指标的变化,分析了各地区在金融危机下的经济稳定性和抗风险能力,进而对我国区域经济发展模式的转型和调整提出建议。     

The Asian economy: current state of play and future prospects

The global financial crisis, the so-called great world recession and recovery have had a serious impact on the Asian and global economies. Together, they managed to engender significant transformation in the contours of both the Asian and global economies. For instance, Asian economies presently depend less on markets in the advanced industrial economies and, due to their enlarging markets, can and did make a substantive contribution to the global recovery. They spearheaded the economic recovery from the global financial crisis. The post-crisis Asian economy is the third pole of the global economy. Significantly, the emerging market economies of Asia did not magnify the external shock this time and performed more like the advanced industrial economies. After a robust recovery in 2010, growth became somewhat subdued in 2011. Projections show that economic performance in the region in 2012 will not be very different from that in 2011 (see WB [World Bank] 2012).     

Analysing interconnectivity among economies

As international financial integration gathers pace, interconnectivity has increased tremendously among financial institutions, financial markets and financial systems, a phenomenon to which the recent global financial crisis perhaps provided the best testimony. The interconnectivity among financial entities at various levels is multilateral in dimension and highly complicated with numerous feedback loops. To contribute to the understanding of the complexity of the global financial system, this study shows how the interconnected relationships can be disentangled into simple and quantifiable bilateral interdependence linkages, using 11 Asia-Pacific economies as an example. A major finding is that all these economies register a significantly higher sovereign risk once the condition that another economy is in distress is imposed.     

Capital flows,current account deficits,and financial crises in emerging market economies

Some emerging market economies are said to face today conditions similar to those faced by Mexico in 1994 at the time of its serious financial crisis. This paper identifies a number of macroeconomic and financial indicators, constructs a profile of the Mexican economy at the time of the crisis, and then compares these with the conditions in other major emerging market economies in Latin America and Asia today in order to determine the extent to which they resemble those of Mexico at the time of the 1994 crisis. The conclusion is reached that macroeconomic and financial indicators cannot by themselves predict Mexican-style financial crises. In today's world of highly integrated capital markets, any anticipation of financial unsustainability can lead to a massive capital outflow from the nation and trigger a crisis, with the catalyst usually being a worsening political problem. The usefulness of the indicators discussed is in providing a profile of the financial condition of the nation, evaluating the potential danger of a financial crisis, anticipating the depth of the crisis if one arises, and pointing to the precautions that a nation can take in trying to avoid a crisis or reduce its severity if one does occur.     

The role of innovation in driving the economy: Lessons from the global financial crisis

The global financial crisis hit nearly every country in the world, devastating their economies, decimating the financial resources of their companies and citizens, and nearly collapsing the banking systems in their countries. While risky financial instruments and bad home lending practices receive much of the blame for this downturn, too few innovations introduced in the years leading up to the crisis also contribute to this collapse or, at a minimum, deepening the resulting recession. This paper draws on theoretical literature and contemporary media accounts, building the argument for a significant impact of innovations on the economy and its potential role in pulling the US economy out of the financial crisis. The paper develops propositions based on this review and discusses implications for staving off future economic difficulties.     

A Framework for Assessing Global Imbalances1

Since the mid‐1990s and prior to the financial crisis external balances of systemically important economies widened significantly. This paper takes a long‐run perspective and reviews the main determinants of widening global imbalances. To this aim, we first provide a set of newly derived statistical measures: while large external imbalances are not new in economic history, their persistence, their concentration on one economy (the United States) and the specific role of emerging market economies make the present episode rather unique. Second, we argue that the observed pattern of imbalances can be mostly understood as a result of various structural changes in the global economy, which have allowed a widening trend of external positions. Three main features set the most recent period apart from past episodes of growing external imbalances: (i) the emergence of new players, in particular emerging market economies such as China and India, which are quickly catching up with the advanced economies; (ii) an unprecedented wave of financial globalisation, with more integrated global financial markets and increasing opportunities for international portfolio diversification, also characterised by considerable asymmetries in the level of market completeness across countries; and (iii) the favourable global macroeconomic and financial environment, with record high global growth rates in recent years, low financial market volatility and easy global financing conditions over a long period of time, running until the outburst of the financial crisis during the summer of 2007. These structural changes that have been supplemented by cyclical or policy‐induced factors ultimately facilitated the sudden, disorderly unwinding of global imbalances that is reflected in the current financial crisis.     

No Easy Gain

Financial crisis-the drive to integration of regional economies Two salient features are illustrated in today's global economy pattern,which is,economic globalization and the integration of regional economies.The integration of regional economies stimulates the globalization,while on the other hand integrating countries that are geographically close aims to fight against the negative impact from globalization,including the financial crisis.     

Financial market crisis and financial market channel

Before a new financial architecture can be established in the wake of the financial crisis, the increasing importance of the global financial market channel must be fully understood. This importance was illustrated by the unexpectedly strong dampening effects of the financial crisis on the real economy and by the worldwide contagion of the crisis, including its spreading to emerging market economies that were macroeconomically stable. This article argues that the financial sphere is gaining in importance over the real sphere and that the impact of global financial determinants on economic activity is growing ever stronger. The keys to dealing with this change are greater transparency, stronger incentive structures and a stronger regulatory and supervisory framework.     

2011国际贸易风险年度报告

2010年全球经济的主题名为“复苏”,实为“调整”。金融危机的冲击让各经济体开始质疑现有的“游戏规则”,为恢复和加快自身发展速度,金融体系、关务规则、市场政策以及贸易保护等各方面均有所调整,这使得中国企业在2011年的全球投资与贸易中,必须面对许多全新的、更复杂的变化。