The effect of cash flow statement format on lenders' decisions

This study investigates bank loan officers' use of financial information and reports, in particular, cash flow information and the statement of cash flow (SCF), in making lending decisions. Subjects were drawn from four groups of frequent users of financial reports-bank loan officers, auditors, financial analysts and accounting academics. Each subject was presented with the annual reports of two loan applicant companies to make two independent lending decisions based on the information provided. The SCF of one of the companies was presented in the direct format, while the other was presented in the indirect format. The indirect format of SCF was used as a surrogate for the funds flow statement. Results show that, while cash flow was the second most used financial information, the majority of the subjects obtained this information from financial statements other than the SCF, notably, the balance sheet. In terms of financial report usage, notes to the financial statements, rather than the SCF, was most frequently used. No subject made use of the incremental information provided in the SCF presented in the direct format. The results suggest that loan officers do not use the cash flow information provided by the SCF, but rely on the accounting information provided in the FFS and accrual-based financial reports.     

解决国内公立高校负债问题的途径

目前国内公立高校集体陷入债务难题,一些院校已采取措施解决负债问题,如政府拿出财政资金直补高校贷款,进行土地置换,通过校办企业和校办产业筹集办学资金,变短贷为长贷等,但这些措施都存在一定缺陷,也不是解决问题的根本出路。本文从政府、银行、高校自身等不同方面提出解决国内公立高校负债问题的途径。     

A Neural Network Approach for Analyzing Small Business Lending Decisions

In this paper, we apply the neural network method to small business lending decisions. We use the neural network to classify the loan applications into the groups of acceptance or rejection, and compare the model results with the actual decisions made by loan officers. Data were collected from a leading bank in Central New York. The sample contains important financial statement and business information of borrowers and the loan officers' decisions. We conduct the network training on the data sample and find that the neural network has a stronger discriminating power for classifying the acceptance and rejection groups than traditional parametric and nonparametric classifiers. The results show that the neural network model has a high predictive ability. Our findings suggest that neural networks can be a very useful tool for enhancing small-business lending decisions and reducing loan processing time and costs.     

An experimental study of users’ responses to qualified audit reports in China

This paper presents the results of an experimental study on users’ responses to the qualification of audit reports in China. By employing the type of audit report (e.g., unqualified vs. qualified auditor opinion) as a manipulated variable in the experiment, we found mixed responses from the participants towards the perceived impact of a qualified audit report on users’ understanding and use of the financial statements. In general, Chinese users, credit and loan officers in particular, perceived a qualified auditor opinion as having a somewhat negative impact on the credibility of financial statements. However, no significant difference was found in users’ investment or credit decisions with respect to their exposure to the financial statements accompanied by an unqualified or a qualified auditor opinion. The study findings suggest that the U.S.-style qualified audit reports have fairly limited “information content” to users in the present Chinese auditing environment and that there is a need to further improve Chinese auditing standards and practices. In addition, the study provides some insights into recent auditing developments in China.     

Information content and recency effect of the audit report in loan rating decisions

We examined the significance of the audit report in loan rating decisions using the belief revision model. We designed a laboratory experiment where the sign of the audit report is mixed with other annual financial information in a series of sequential evidence. The results of an experimental design, using 106 loan officers from international financial institutions, support the hypothesis that the qualified audit report appears to be an independent and useful piece of evidence when it is contrary to favourable financial expectations. Our findings also support that the ‘recency effect’ might influence international commercial loan officers’ perception of the qualified audit report.     

THE IMPLICATIONS OF DISTRESS PREDICTION MODELS FOR CORPORATE LENDING

Three literatures on financial distress prediction are reviewed and evaluated in terms of their usefulness in credit analysis. These are (1) bankruptcy prediction models initiated by Altman, (2) behavioural studies of the ability of loan officers and others to make accurate predictions of bankruptcy and (3) attempts to simulate loan officers' judgements. It is concluded that techniques based on judgement simulation are likely to be the most effective decision aids.     

Screening soft information: evidence from loan officers

I evaluate how loan officers screen uncodified, soft information using data from China. After documenting substantial differences in loan decisions and outcomes across loan officers, I develop and estimate a screening model incorporating screening ability and beliefs regarding ability. Estimates imply that the typical loan officer is risk-averse, has heterogeneous screening ability, and behaves overconfidently—behaving as if he or she observes more from soft information than what the data would indicate. However, I still find that loan officers offer value over benchmarks that ignore soft information. Counterfactuals on compensation, loan assignment, and training further explore the limits of screening.     

Perceptions and characteristics of financial statement users in developing countries: Evidence from Iran

We examine the perceptions and characteristics of users of corporate financial statements in Iran. We provide evidence based on a survey of seven different user-groups. Our results suggest that annual reports are regularly used as a basis for making investment and other economic decisions. As in many developing countries, users depend more heavily on information obtained from the published annual reports than on advice from stockbrokers and acquaintances or on tips and rumors. While respondents differed in their rating of the importance of different sections of the annual report, the overall results showed that they ranked the income statement, the auditors’ report, and the balance sheet as the three most important parts of the annual report (in that order). There is a weak level of consensus among bank loan officers, tax officers, and auditor groups about the importance of several information items. Most users believe that a delay in publishing annual reports, lack of reliability of the information, and lack of adequate disclosure are the main concerns with corporate financial reports in Iran. The evidence on Iran is relevant to other developing countries in the Middle East and beyond.     

The quality and conservatism of the accounting earnings of local governments

Our aim is to provide insight into the usefulness of accounting earnings for measuring the economic performance of local governments across Australia. Specifically, we explore whether (i) accrual accounting provides useful information, and (ii) earnings of local governments are conservative. We find that accrual accounting by local governments provides useful information as measured by the ability to predict one-year-ahead operating cash-flows. We find no conservatism in the financial reports of the average local government. This, we posit, is due to a lower level of demand for high-quality accrual-based financial reports from these entities. Consistent with this argument, both the quality of accruals and the degree of conservatism increase for local governments for which we predict a demand for higher-quality financial reporting.     

Continuous reporting benefits in the private debt capital market

The study is an experiment, administered over the Internet, measuring the effect that continuous reporting has on a company's ability to secure private debt capital. Specifically, we test whether commercial loan officers would be more willing to increase the probablity of loan acceptance to a mid-sized company operating in a continuous reporting environment than they would a company that operates in a traditional reporting environment. We find that high risk companies providing financial information to the lender on a daily basis have a higher probability of loan acceptance than do companies providing financial information to the lender on a quarterly basis. We did not find any results for low risk companies, suggesting the potential benefits of continuous reporting might not accrue to those type companies. The results were robust for both new and existing banking relationship scenarios. We did not find any results for the interest rate variable. The results of this study have significant implications for companies determined to be high risk. Commercial loans are the life-support for many companies, and failure to secure a line-of-credit could have devastating consequences for these high-risk companies.     

The effect of a potential borrower's reporting reputation and financial condition on commercial loan officers' estimates of forecast bias and subsequent loan recommendations

This paper investigates whether a potential borrower's reporting reputation and financial condition affect commercial loan officers' loan judgments and recommendations after receiving an earnings forecast that predicts improved financial performance. The results suggest that the earnings forecast is perceived as more credible in the presence of (1) a reputation for objective reporting, and (2) strong financial condition. Also, a reputation for objective reporting allowed the borrower to more credibly convey the expected improvement in performance when financial condition was weak. However, while financial condition predictably affects loan recommendations (likelihood of granting the loan, interest rate), reporting reputation does not. While we find that commercial loan officers discount forecasts under similar circumstances as stock analysts, results suggest that the consequences of developing a reputation for aggressive reporting (e.g., aggressive selection of accounting methods and estimates within GAAP) may be greater in a stock valuation setting (prior research documents lower stock prices) than in a loan setting.     

Perceived vs actual financial crisis and bank credit standards: Is there any indication of self-fulfilling prophecy?

We link senior banks loan officers’ responses regarding their decisions for bank credit standards, from successive surveys from the European Bank Lending Survey to investigate two important issues. First, we examine the relationship between bank credit standards (CS) and perceived and actual financial crisis. Second, we investigate whether the notion of the self-fulfilling prophecy is applicable in the case of the 2008 financial crisis. In particular, the second main research question that we try to answer is whether the perceived crisis (as implied by the Google search query “financial crisis”) contributed to the acceleration of the outburst of the actual crisis. We find that both perceived and actual financial crisis affect senior bank loan officers’ credit standards, with the actual crisis having the greatest impact. These results are consistent both in the short and in the long run. Finally, by putting forward a binary choice model we find sufficient evidence to support the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy notion.     

The effects of audit firm rotation on perceived auditor independence and audit quality

Our study explores loan officers’ perceptions of auditors’ independence and audit quality under three experimental audit firm rotation scenarios. We use a case experiment with a between-subjects design to determine whether rotation of the audit firm impacts financial statement users’ perceptions of auditor’s independence and quality. Findings based on 212 useable responses indicate that loan officers do perceive an increase in independence when the company follows an audit firm rotation policy. However, the length of auditor tenure within rotation fails to significantly change loan officers’ perceptions of independence. Findings also indicate that neither the presence of a rotation policy nor the length of the auditor tenure within rotation significantly influences the loan officers’ perceptions of audit quality.     

A CONCEPTUAL APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM OF INCORPORATING THE PHENOMENON OF DEBT INTER DEPENDENCIES UPON LIQUIDATION

Where there exists a set of companies with debt interdependencies, the ability of one of the companies to repay its debts partly depends, either directly or indirectly, upon the ability of the other companies in the set to repay their debts. Theoretically, if the debt owing to a company is to be valued accurately [i.e. in terms of its realizable value] the valuation should take into account the financial consequences of the corporate debt interdependencies. The purpose of the paper is to explain and illustrate two methods which could be used to overcome this problem. One of the methods involving matrix algebra, although its use results in an equitable solution to the problem, (i) is found to be inefficient where the number of companies having cross debts is large and (ii) has only partial applicability. The second method employing linear programming techniques provides a solution that (i) is efficient and (ii) has general applicability to the problem of recognizing debt interdependencies upon liquidation.     

房价调控、地方政府债务与宏观经济波动

在地方政府债务高企的背景下,房价调控能否使资本流向非房地产部门？房价调控如果触发地方政府债务违约,宏观政策应如何应对？本文基于中国宏观经济的特征事实,引入地方政府的土地财政行为,将房价变动与地方政府的偿债能力联系起来。研究表明,由于地方政府依赖土地出让和土地抵押贷款筹集收入,房价管控导致的地价下降会带来地方政府收入的下降,直接影响地方政府的偿债能力。如果地方政府债务不出现违约,那么房价管控带来的地价下降会降低地方政府从金融部门获得的抵押融资额,使非基建部门的融资成本下降,非基建部门投资和产出上升。而如果调控房价带来的地价下降导致地方政府出现债务违约,金融部门资产受损,使金融中介减少贷款和提高贷款成本,带来整个社会的信贷紧缩,经济中各个部门的产出大幅下降。进一步的政策分析表明,有必要在避免地方政府债务违约的同时,使用财政资金补充银行资本金等多种方式稳定金融中介的资产负债表,从而将房价调控对经济的负面影响程度降到最低。     

The influence of loan officers on loan contract design and performance

We investigate the extent to which loan officers generate independent, individual effects on the design and performance of syndicated loans. We construct a large database containing the identities of loan officers involved in structuring syndicated loan deals, allowing us to systematically disentangle borrower, bank, and loan officer fixed effects. We find that loan officers have significant influence on interest spreads, loan covenant design, and loan performance. Inclusion of borrower fixed effects increases our power to rule out the alternative that loan officer fixed effects reflect the matching of officerds to borrowers based on time-invariant borrower characteristics. We document heterogeneity in loan officers’ influence across loan contract terms, with loan officers exerting stronger influence over covenant package design than over interest spreads, but marginal influence on loan maturity. Lead officers have greater influence than participant officers over covenant package design and loan performance, but less robust differential influence on interest spreads.     

续贷限制与企业技术创新

本文以2007年的银行续贷政策改革作为“准自然实验”,采用双重差分模型探讨了续贷限制对企业技术创新的影响。研究发现,续贷限制显著抑制了企业的技术创新,且经过一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。进一步研究发现,该政策的作用效果因专利类型的不同而存在较大差异,具体表现为,在续贷限制之后,相较于低质量非发明专利,企业高质量发明专利下降幅度更大,进而企业创新质量降低。作用机制检验发现,续贷限制会降低企业信贷规模、缩短企业信贷期限以及增加企业融资成本,进而抑制企业技术创新。上述结果表明,“一刀切”式地收紧续贷标准会强化企业的融资约束,限制信贷资金对企业技术创新的支持作用,最终不利于企业的转型升级。本文研究为当前的续贷政策提供了来自企业创新视角的理论依据和实践参考。     

Proposed Changes in Lease Accounting and Private Business Bankers' Credit Decisions*

This study contributes to the debate on lease accounting currently ongoing at the international level and to future discussions at the Canadian level for private enterprise standards following a potential revision of lease accounting in international financial reporting standards (IFRS). A user perspective is adopted to examine private business bankers' preferences on the issue of capitalizing all noncancelable lease contracts, including operating leases, as suggested by the G4+1. While bankers use both capital and operating lease information, they give significantly more consideration to the former when analyzing private business loan requests. Accordingly, operating lease information receives less attention than capital lease information in the credit‐granting decision process. In addition, private business bankers consider a number of aspects of the current lease accounting standard to be inadequate and are in favor of the principles governing the approach suggested by the G4+1. They feel that the capitalization of operating leases would improve their ability to evaluate lessees' long‐term financial commitments and increase their estimates of the risks involved in providing financing to lessees. This study also demonstrates that the capitalization of operating leases would have a significant impact on key financial indicators of a sample of Canadian private companies. Bankers perceive that these realistic changes in financial indicators would affect their assessment of borrowers' capital structure/solvency, liquidity, ability to repay, and risk rating. From a cost‐benefit perspective, the findings provide standard‐setters with an indication of the benefits of the G4+1 proposals to users.     

续贷限制与企业技术创新

本文以2007年的银行续贷政策改革作为“准自然实验”,采用双重差分模型探讨了续贷限制对企业技术创新的影响。研究发现,续贷限制显著抑制了企业的技术创新,且经过一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。进一步研究发现,该政策的作用效果因专利类型的不同而存在较大差异,具体表现为,在续贷限制之后,相较于低质量非发明专利,企业高质量发明专利下降幅度更大,进而企业创新质量降低。作用机制检验发现,续贷限制会降低企业信贷规模、缩短企业信贷期限以及增加企业融资成本,进而抑制企业技术创新。上述结果表明,“一刀切”式地收紧续贷标准会强化企业的融资约束,限制信贷资金对企业技术创新的支持作用,最终不利于企业的转型升级。本文研究为当前的续贷政策提供了来自企业创新视角的理论依据和实践参考。