淮安市应急物流体系的思考与建议

应急物流作为社会应急管理体系的重要组成部分,它将现代物流与应急管理相结合,能防止突发事件下灾难的扩大,减少人员伤亡、物品损失及受灾面积,促进生产生活秩序恢复。文章介绍了淮安应急物流发展的现状,阐述了淮安应急物流在组织机制、响应机制、保障能力、信息平台和专业人才等五个方面存在的问题,并提出通过完善应急物流组织体系、建立多方联动应急物流响应机制、提升应急物流保障能力、加快应急物流信息平台的建设、培训应急物流专业人才等方式完善淮安应急物流体系。     

Hospital capacity planning for disaster emergency management

Hospitals are an integral part of a society's critical functions designed to respond to man-made and natural disasters. Effective hospital capacity planning can significantly enhance the capability and effectiveness of treatment for emergency patients with injuries resulting from a disaster. Such information can be used for patient/ambulance routing, resource planning, and emergency operations management. In the current paper, we develop a generic simulation model that is capable of representing the operations of a wide range of hospitals given an earthquake disaster situation. Using results from our simulations, generalized regression equations are fitted to obtain steady-state hospital capacities. A parametric metamodel is then developed to predict transient capacity for multiple hospitals in the disaster area in a timely manner, as demanded by emergency operations management for guiding the routing and treatment of injured people.     

A credibility-based multi-objective temporary logistics hub location-allocation model for relief supply and distribution under uncertainty

Disaster response operations revolve around uncertainties. While uncertainties arising due to randomness can be avoided for post-disaster location problem, those arising because of impreciseness may persist long after the disaster's occurrence. Despite the uncertainties and lack of sufficient information about the extent of the damage, disaster response facilities must be established quickly after the occurrence of the disaster. Moreover, the decisions of whether to open, where to locate, and when to open disaster response facilities are based on the amount and quality of information available during the decision-making period. To address these issues, we develop a multi-objective location-allocation model for relief supply and distribution that accounts for the imprecise and time-varying nature of different parameters and time-varying coverage, while also accommodating the subjective attributes necessary to enable establishment and operation of the temporary logistics hubs (TLHs). A credibility-based fuzzy chance-constrained programming model is employed to account for the impreciseness inherent in predicting parameter values during disaster response. The results show where, when, and how many TLHs to open and how to allocate relief supplies. Meanwhile, the sensitivity analysis provides a broader understanding of the impact of limiting the number of TLHs as well as the confidence level and the spread of the symmetric triangular fuzzy numbers on the attainment of the model objectives.     

城市灾害应急预案基本要素探讨

目前,城市灾害管理正在逐渐受到各级政府的重视,为了有效地减轻城市灾害的损失,一些大中城市开始制定灾害应急预案.然而,在应该制定什么样的城市应急预案才能真正在救灾抢险中发挥最大作用等方面仍缺少必要的论证和探讨.文章从政府灾害应急救灾的基本程序入手,对城市灾害应急预案的基本要素进行了探讨,提出了城市灾害预测评价和防灾规划是制定城市灾害应急预案的基础,而灾害应急指挥系统、灾害情报体系、救灾抢险体系、应急医疗体系、应急避难体系和交通管理体系六大主要因素构成了城市灾害应急预案的基本要素.     

A model for planning locations of temporary distribution facilities for emergency response

We propose a network flow model for dynamic selection of temporary distribution facilities and allocation of resources for emergency response planning. The model analyzes the transfer of excess resources between temporary facilities operating in different time periods in order to reduce deprivation. Numerical analysis shows that the location of temporary facilities is determined by the demand and supply points. This work contributes to the emergency response planning that requires a quick response for the supply of relief materials immediately after a disaster hits a particular area.     

城市灾害应急能力评价指标体系建构

城市灾害应急能力的评价是城市灾害管理的重要内容,也是城市防灾减灾的重要保障,建立城市灾害应急能力评价指标体系对增强城市灾害管理能力和提高政府部门对灾害的应急响应能力有重要的意义.从系统理论的角度出发,运用层次分析法对城市灾害应急能力的评价指标进行分级,在结合城市灾害特征的基础上建立起参与城市灾害应急管理能力的评价指标体系,可为今后城市灾害管理和规划提供科学依据.     

城市灾害应急能力自评价指标体系及其实证研究

城市灾害应急能力的自评价是城市灾害管理的重要内容,也是城市防灾减灾的重要保障。建立城市灾害应急能力自评价指标体系对增强城市灾害管理能力有重要的意义。本文通过对城市灾害应急能力系统的分析,建立了包含一个一级指标、六个二级指标和44个三级指标的城市灾害应急能力自评价指标体系,设计出城市灾害应急能力自评价的组织程序,并对该自评价指标体系和相关的组织程序进行了实证研究。     

Research on emergency dissemination models for social media based on information entropy

ABSTRACT

The emergency information dissemination model discussed in this paper describes the dissemination and broadcasting characteristics of emergency information on the internet. This model is helpful for predicting the occurrence of incidents and improving the emergency response. We construct an emergency information dissemination model based on the information entropy method. We verify the validity of the model by obtaining emergency data from Sina Blog regarding the Ya’an and Wenchuan earthquakes. We find that the level of information entropy significantly influences emergency information dissemination. From the perspective of information entropy, we can more effectively describe and understand information on the internet concerning emergency responses.     

Evaluation of new first response initiatives in emergency services

By training and equipping human resources from other public service sectors than emergency response, to act as first responders, it is possible to reduce the first response times at a low cost. Before launching such an initiative, it is however important to evaluate the potential benefits. In this work, a method for doing this kind of evaluation is developed and applied to a potential initiative, utilizing fire service day personnel as new first responders. By developing a smartphone application and performing an experiment, sending alerts to potential first responders, and combining this with expert reviews of the possible value of their contribution, it is possible to estimate the response time reductions, as well as the monetary benefits of the initiative. The results show that there is a monetary benefit, even with a low number of new first responders, but that it is highly dependent on how quickly they can start travelling towards the emergency site.     

A disaster response model driven by spatial–temporal forecasts

In this research, we propose a disaster response model combining preparedness and responsiveness strategies. The selective response depends on the level of accuracy that our forecasting models can achieve. In order to decide the right geographical space and time window of response, forecasts are prepared and assessed through a spatial–temporal aggregation framework, until we find the optimum level of aggregation. The research considers major earthquake data for the period 1985–2014. Building on the produced forecasts, we develop accordingly a disaster response model. The model is dynamic in nature, as it is updated every time a new event is added in the database. Any forecasting model can be optimized though the proposed spatial–temporal forecasting framework, and as such our results can be easily generalized. This is true for other forecasting methods and in other disaster response contexts.     

应急物流服务网点选址模型研究

应急物流是应对突发事件的重要保障。应急物流可以降低灾害影响程度,缩短受害持续时间,使突发性事件造成损失最小化。而在进行应急物流决策时,首先会面临应急物流服务网点的选址问题。应急物流服务网点置于合理的位置,不仅可以降低成本,而且还能够保证提供应急物资的时效性,从而避免可能导致的更大损失。在给定限制条件下应急服务网点选址模型基础上,综合考虑应急需求的随机性和由灾害导致应急配送时间模糊的不确定情况,研究新的模糊和随机混合机会约束规划选址模型。     

Optimization models in emergency logistics: A literature review

Optimization modeling has become a powerful tool to tackle emergency logistics problems since its first adoption in maritime disaster situations in the 1970s. Using techniques of content analysis, this paper reviews optimization models utilized in emergency logistics. Disaster operations can be performed before or after disaster occurrence. Short-notice evacuation, facility location, and stock pre-positioning are drafted as the main pre-disaster operations, while relief distribution and casualty transportation are categorized as post-disaster operations. According to these operations, works in the literature are broken down into three parts: facility location, relief distribution and casualty transportation, and other operations. For the first two parts, the literature is structured and analyzed based on the model types, decisions, objectives, and constraints. Finally, through the content analysis framework, several research gaps are identified and future research directions are proposed.     

WHAT FACTORS AFFECT A STATE'S MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT? EVIDENCE FROM 1974–1994 STATE PANEL DATA

This paper provides new evidence that US state policies can affect the location of manufacturing activity. The paper extends the literature by analyzing industry-level panel data from 1974–1994. Results from the two-stage empirical model support ex ante intuition that divergence in state policy and/or characteristics affects specific manufacturing industries differently. Econometric techniques employed herein address many of the criticisms of previous work in this area.     

完善我国自然灾害应急体系

自然灾害作为突发公共事件的一种,对社会生命财产造成巨大损失,所以建立自然灾害应急体系显得尤为重要。本文通过借鉴发达国家自然灾害应急管理体系的经验,对完善中国自然灾害应急管理体系提出了几点建议,以便发挥更为积极的职责与作用,建立专门的自然灾害应急管理机构,使国家在突发事件中损失较小。     

A two-period newsvendor model for prepositioning with a post-disaster replenishment using Bayesian demand update

Humanitarian aid agencies usually resort to inventory prepositioning to mitigate the impact of disasters by sending emergency supplies to the affected area as quickly as possible. However, a lack of replenishment opportunity after a disaster can greatly hamper the effectiveness of the relief operation due to uncertainty in demand. In this paper, a prepositioning problem is formulated as a two-period newsvendor model where the response phase is divided into two periods. The model acknowledges the demand to be uncertain even after the disaster and utilises the Bayesian approach to revise the demand of the second period. Based on the revised demand, an order is placed at the beginning of the second period to be replenished instantaneously. A two-stage solution methodology is proposed to find the prepositioning quantity and post-disaster replenishment quantity, which minimise the total expected costs of relief operations. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the solution methodology, and sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the effect of model parameters. The results highlight the indifferent characteristics shown by the replenishment quantity with the variation in model parameters.     

News,disaster risk,and time-varying uncertainty

Standard real business cycle models are often unable to replicate three empirical facts: positive output in response to good news, stochastic volatility of macro variables, and asymmetric business cycles. This paper proposes a unified basis for understanding these facts in a tractable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, in which the key is the interaction of information flows and disaster risk. Information flows fluctuate between two regimes with different precision levels for signals regarding future economic fundamentals. A shift in forecast precision changes the probability of entering an economic disaster. High disaster risk leads to low expected capital returns and a decline in hours, investment, and output. Changing information structures results in different volatility and skewness over the business cycle. Simple theory makes the two expectation effects through information flows and disaster risk transparent. Quantitatively, the model suggests that the interaction of the two expectation effects plays a significant role in accounting for the higher-order moments of the business cycle.     

Flood decision support system on agent grid: method and implementation

In this paper, we introduce the concept and architecture of agent grid. Agent grid is an intelligent platform that enables the independent operating entities (agents) to interact with one another to form dynamic services on the Grid. Under this view, we built an agent grid platform named AGrIP that includes four layers and several useful toolkits. With the platform support, we implemented the flood decision support system which combines the wireless sensor network for data acquisition and software agent technology for legacy system integration. Additionally, we developed a toolkit for programmers to visually develop software agents which makes the development process easier. Besides, the MWAC model proposed is for sensor network to save power which can transit the information for long distance. This system is now applied as a module in the city emergency interact project.     

群体协同:促进突发公共事件应急决策发展的新机制

群体协同机制是一种能适应重、特大危机事件频发的新的应急决策方法。文章将群体协同机制与突发公共事件应急决策相结合,提出基于群体协同的突发公共事件应急决策支持系统的构建,快速高效的制定总体应急方案,以提高救助减灾水平,最大化降低灾害影响。     

基于反馈控制原理的应急物资分配动态决策过程分析

随着灾害应急物流系统快速响应机制的建立,应急物资分配在降低自然灾害的影响方面体现出重要作用。应急物资需求具有突发性和动态性等特征,资源的分配是一个动态的过程。基于此借鉴反馈控制原理构建应急物资分配决策模型,对灾害应急物流中的应急物资分配动态决策过程进行分析。