STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE AND MEAN VARIANCE RULES IN THE SELECTION OF RISKY INVESTMENTS

This paper reexamines the methods of stochastic dominance and mean-variance analysis for the selection of risky investments. It takes as its starting point the paper by Gandhi and Saunders in the Spring 1981 issue of this journal in which they argued for the superiority of stochastic dominance analysis. In this paper the countercase is put forward for the use of mean-variance analysis. It is argued that while naive application of mean-variance criteria to the ranking of projects in isolation might lead to erroneous decisions, in the presence of reasonably sized capital markets rules based on mean-variance analysis still remain a more practical tool.     

Pro-poor indirect tax reforms,with an application to Mexico

This paper proposes a methodology for testing for whether tax reforms are pro-poor. This is done by extending stochastic dominance techniques to identify tax reforms that will be deemed absolutely or relatively pro-poor by a wide spectrum of poverty analysts. The statistical properties of the various estimators are also derived in order to make the method implementable using survey data. The methodology is used to assess the pro-poorness of possible reforms to Mexico’s indirect tax system. This leads to the identification of several possible pro-poor tax reforms in that country. It also shows how the pro-poorness of a tax reform depends on one’s conception of poverty as well as on the revenue and efficiency impact of the reform.     

Deadlines and software: disentangling local government accounting reforms in Brazil

ABSTRACT

This paper shows how ongoing accounting reforms in Brazilian local governments were affected by a shift from a universal to a gradual implementation approach. Deadlines being postponed led to a decrease in local governments’ willingness to reform. This effect varied according whether the accountants involved depended on commercial software to operate a particular accounting policy. An important finding from this research was that software providers are to some extent setting the IPSAS implementation agenda in Brazil.     

Robust optimal strategies for an insurer with reinsurance and investment under benchmark and mean-variance criteria

In this paper, an ambiguity-averse insurer (AAI) whose surplus process is approximated by a Brownian motion with drift, hopes to manage risk by both investing in a Black–Scholes financial market and transferring some risk to a reinsurer, but worries about uncertainty in model parameters. She chooses to find investment and reinsurance strategies that are robust with respect to this uncertainty, and to optimize her decisions in a mean-variance framework. By the stochastic dynamic programming approach, we derive closed-form expressions for a robust optimal benchmark strategy and its corresponding value function, in the sense of viscosity solutions, which allows us to find a mean-variance efficient strategy and the efficient frontier. Furthermore, economic implications are analyzed via numerical examples. In particular, our conclusion in the mean-variance framework differs qualitatively, for certain parameter ranges, with model-uncertainty robustness conclusions in the framework of utility functions: model uncertainty does not always result in an agent deciding to reduce risk exposure under mean-variance criteria, opposite to the conclusions for utility functions in Maenhout and Liu. Our conclusion can be interpreted as saying that the mean-variance problem for the AAI explains certain counter-intuitive investor behaviors, by which the attitude to risk exposure, for an AAI facing model uncertainty, depends on positive past experience.     

Ordering Uncertain Options under Inflation: A Note

Stochastic dominance rules (SD) have been extended to the case where investors are allowed to borrow and lend at the riskless interest rate. Stochastic dominance rules with a riskless asset (SDR) are much more effective than SD rules. However, it seems that this benefit is eliminated by an uncertain inflation, since riskless assets become risky once uncertain inflation is considered. We prove in this paper that SDR criteria are valid also in the face of uncertain (and independent) inflation. Moreover, while the mean-variance (MV) efficient set increases with uncertain inflation, the stochastic dominance efficient sets decrease.     

CAPITAL BUDGETING DECISIONS WHEN CASH FLOWS AND PROJECT LIVES ARE STOCHASTIC AND DEPENDENT

The purpose of this study is twofold: (1) to develop an operational economic state and simulation capital budgeting procedure for allowing cash flows and project lives to be dependent and (2) to provide empirical evidence of the impact of stochastic project lives on mean-variance and mean-semivariance capital budgeting decisions. The required number of input estimates for the proposed model is small. For individual projects, incorrectly assuming deterministic project lives when project lives are stochastic often results in large overestimates of expected net present values and large underestimates of the variance of the net present value. Similar results occur for the mean-variance and mean-semivariance portfolio models. The primary managerial implication of this study is that the inclusion of stochastic project lives in capital budgeting decisions is critical to obtain appropriate risk-return estimates.     

International portfolio selection and efficiency analysis

In the risk-return tradeoff, the traditional mean-variance analysis has been widely used for studies of international portfolio efficiency and diversification. Without prior knowledge about either the parametric structure of assets' return distributions or the form of investors' preference functions, the variance may no longer serve as a suitable risk proxy. This article examines international portfolio efficiency and diversification effects through mean-variance and various distribution-free (or less restrictive) risk-return measures. We show empirically that the mean-variance model is appropriate for large or well-diversified portfolios, but may provide biased results for single assets and less diversified portfolios. While stochastic dominance stands as theoretically the most appropriate method of international portfolio selection and efficiency analysis, the lack of optimal search algorithms reduces its practical usefulness. Very little gain is obtained by using the Gini-mean-difference risk measure as compared to the semivariance measure. The semivariance measure is a powerful and convenient discriminator of risky prospects, while stochastic dominance can serve as a benchmark to justify portfolio efficiency.     

Mean-variance cointegration and the expectations hypothesis

The present paper sheds further light on a well-known (alleged) violation of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHT): the frequent finding of unit roots in interest rate spreads. We show that the EHT implies (i) that the nonstationarity stems from the holding premium, which is hence (ii) cointegrated with the spread. In a stochastic discount factor framework, we model the premium as being driven by the integrated variance of excess returns. Introducing the concept of mean-variance cointegration, we actually find cointegration relations between the conditional first and second moment of US bond data.     

Mean-variance vs. stochastic dominance some empirical findings on efficient sets

The study attempts to shed additional light on the issue of the costs and benefits of using the mean-variance criterion as opposed to stochastic dominance criteria for investment decisions. Relevant probabilities which facilitate measurement of these costs and benefits are identified. The mean-variance criterion is shown to be useful to some extent in identifying potentially optimal portfolios. However, it is shown that the informationally less demanding mean-variance criterion admits two types of errors: (i) including portfolios that no expected utility maximizing risk averters would choose, and (ii) excluding portfolios which some risk averters would find optimal. The empirical investigation also indicates that although the composition of the efficient sets appears to be unstable over time, the relationships between the efficient sets are persistent over time.     

Short-term pain for long-term gain: Market deregulation and monetary policy in small open economies

This paper explores the effects of labor and product market reforms in a New Keynesian, small open economy model with labor market frictions and endogenous producer entry. We show that it takes time for reforms to pay off, typically at least a couple of years. This is partly because the benefits materialize through firm entry and increased hiring, both of which are gradual processes, while any reform-driven layoffs are immediate. Some reforms – such as reductions in employment protection – increase unemployment temporarily. Implementing a broad package of labor and product market reforms minimizes transition costs. Importantly, reforms do not have noticeable deflationary effects, suggesting that the inability of monetary policy to deliver large interest rate cuts in their aftermath – either because of the zero bound on policy rates or because of the membership in a monetary union – may not be a relevant obstacle to reform. Alternative simple monetary policy rules do not have a large effect on transition costs.     

Is implementing the IPSASs an appropriate reform?

The purpose of this paper is to argue that the implementation of the accrual-based IPSASs in European-influenced developing and transition economy countries is not an appropriate reform unless preceded or accompanied by other, essentially managerial, reforms. The nature and extent of these prior reforms depend upon the political and cultural context and, not least, upon the power relationships within and between public institutions. The advocates of the application of the IPSASs appear not to recognize that for the reform to be effective it cannot be treated as simply a technical accounting reform, yet this is what is occurring. The issues identified in this paper are based upon the author’s practical experiences of working in many of these countries.     

Budgetary Reforms in the Non-profit Sector: A Comparative Analysis of Experiences in Health Care and Higher Education in the Netherlands

This study reports on budgetary reforms in the Dutch health care and higher education sector in the last twenty years. Comparisons between the two sectors reveal that not all reforms adhere to the principles of New Public Management. New budget systems in both sectors are mixed systems, with university budgets developing from input to more output based systems and hospital budgeting systems from output to more input oriented systems. More output-based budget systems appear to stimulate production, contradicting government's policy of cost reduction. The most effective reform measures turn out to be those who are best aligned with opinions and attitudes of medical and academic professionals.     

Mean-Variance Asset Liability Management with State-Dependent Risk Aversion

This article investigates the asset liability management problem with state-dependent risk aversion under the mean-variance criterion. The investor allocates the wealth among multiple assets including a risk-free asset and multiple risky assets governed by a system of geometric Brownian motion stochastic differential equations, and the investor faces the risk of paying uncontrollable random liabilities. The state-dependent risk aversion is taken into account in our model, linking the risk aversion to the current wealth held by the investor. An extended Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman system is established for the optimization of asset liability management, and by solving the extended Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman system, the analytical closed-form expressions for the time-inconsistent optimal investment strategies and the optimal value function are derived. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate our results.     

金融改革30年

中国金融改革虽然从时间上看落后于中国整体经济改革,但还是卓有成效的,在回顾中国经济改革30年之时,我们有必要回顾一下中国金融改革所走过的路。     

The Opportunity Cost of a Mean-Variance Efficient Choice

The mean-variance criterion is one of the most frequently used methods for selecting investment portfolios. Yet, because it is an approximation of an investor's maximum expected utility choice, some theoreticians and practitioners have criticized the approach. This paper examines the investment loss that different investors experience by accepting a mean-variance efficient portfolio. Simulated security returns with extreme distributional characteristics are used to determine the extent of an investor's loss. The results indicate that even under very unreasonable investment distributional assumptions, an investor's loss by accepting a mean-variance efficient choice rarely exceeds a small fraction of one percent per invested dollar.     

TORT REFORM AND MASS TORTS: TOBACCO AS AN EXAMPLE

Abstract: As data regarding the U.S. tort liability system become more refined and dependable, evidence of the importance of mass torts is emerging. Much of the impetus for and debate surrounding tort reform, however, has focused on individual tort claims. The purpose of this research is to consider the unique characteristics of mass torts, particularly those that generate from latent injuries, with regard to the likely effect of currently popular tort reforms. The various tobacco litigation efforts are employed as mechanisms within which to undertake this consideration. The results indicate that care in designing tort reforms is necessary if modifications are to be effective in reducing the litigation costs associated with mass torts. Furthermore, research into the social benefit of various system structures currently being debated is warranted. The risk management and insurance community is interested in the debate and related reforms, both for purposes of reducing costs and for the purpose of increasing certainty of liability outcomes.     

The Impact of Sampling Errors on the Choice of Portfolio Efficiency Analysis Rules with Borrowing and Lending of a Riskless Asset

This paper evaluates the impact of sampling errors on portfolio decisions using mean-variance and stochastic dominance rules where riskless borrowing and lending opportunities exist. The paper establishes criteria for comparing the alternative decision rules (for example, mean variance versus stochastic dominance) according to their effectiveness and the cost (in sampling error terms). Normal distributions are simulated using various assumed means, standard deviations, correlations, and sample sizes. These simulations enable one to evaluate the impact of sampling errors on the potential effectiveness of the empirical stochastic dominance and mean variance rules that include borrowing and lending of a riskless asset.     

Optimal Asset-Liability Management for an Insurer Under Markov Regime Switching Jump-Diffusion Market

This paper considers an asset-liability management problem under a continuous time Markov regime-switching jump-diffusion market. We assume that the risky stock’s price is governed by a Markov regime-switching jump-diffusion process and the insurance claims follow a Markov regime-switching compound poisson process. Using the Markowitz mean-variance criterion, the objective is to minimize the variance of the insurer’s terminal wealth, given an expected terminal wealth. We get the optimal investment policy. At the same time, we also derive the mean-variance efficient frontier by using the Lagrange multiplier method and stochastic linear-quadratic control technique.     

Stochastic dominance analysis of Asian hedge funds

We employ the stochastic dominance approach that utilizes the entire return distribution to rank the performance of Asian hedge funds as traditional mean-variance and CAPM approaches could be inappropriate given the nature of non-normal returns. We find both first-order and higher-order stochastic dominance relationships amongst the funds and conclude that investors would be better off by investing in the first-order dominant funds to maximize their expected wealth. By investing in higher-order dominant funds, risk-averse investors can maximize their expected utilities but not their wealth. In addition, we find the common characteristic for most pairs of funds is that one fund is preferred to another in the negative domain whereas the preference reverses in the positive domain. We conclude that the stochastic dominance approach is more appropriate compared with traditional approaches as a filter in hedge fund selection. Compared with traditional approaches, the SD approach, not only is assumption free, but also provides greater insights to the performance and risk inherent in a hedge fund's track record.