The relationship between brokers’ influence, strength of ties and NPD project outcomes in innovation-driven horizontal networks

This paper examines the impact of a broker's perceived use of power – position (i.e., coercive, reward and legitimate) and personal (i.e., expert, information and referent) – on strength of ties between network members and new product development (NPD) project outcomes. Our sample consists of 100 individuals drawn from 42 organizations that were involved in different innovation-driven horizontal networks. The results of structural equation modeling suggest that the perceived use of both personal power bases and position power bases by the broker are positively related to the strength of ties between members. Strength of ties, on the other hand, is positively related to NPD project outcomes of design performance and development time. Finally, results show that the relationships between a broker's use of different power bases and NPD project outcomes are fully mediated by the strength of ties between networks members. Implications for research, theory, and practice are discussed.     

A nonparametric test of weak separability and consumer preferences

Two stochastic nonparametric procedures are developed to evaluate the significance of violations of weak separability. When the data have measurement error, we show that the necessary and sufficient weak separability conditions of Varian [Varian, H., 1983. Nonparametric tests of consumer behavior. Review of Economic Studies 50, 99–110] must also satisfy the Afriat inequalities. The tests detect weak separability with high probability for weakly separable data. In addition, the procedures correctly reject weak separability for both nonseparable and random utility simulated data sets. The tests also fail to reject weak separability for a monetary and consumption data set which suggests that measurement error may be the source of the observed violations.     

Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs

This paper considers the problem of forecasting economic and financial variables across a large number of countries in the global economy. To this end a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, previously estimated by Dees, di Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007) and Dees, Holly, Pesaran, and Smith (2007) over the period 1979Q1–2003Q4, is used to generate out-of-sample forecasts one and four quarters ahead for real output, inflation, real equity prices, exchange rates and interest rates over the period 2004Q1–2005Q4. Forecasts are obtained for 134 variables from 26 regions, which are made up of 33 countries and cover about 90% of the world output. The forecasts are compared to typical benchmarks: univariate autoregressive and random walk models. Building on the forecast combination literature, the effects of model and estimation uncertainty on forecast outcomes are examined by pooling forecasts obtained from different GVAR models estimated over alternative sample periods. Given the size of the modelling problem, and the heterogeneity of the economies considered–industrialised, emerging, and less developed countries–as well as the very real likelihood of possibly multiple structural breaks, averaging forecasts across both models and windows makes a significant difference. Indeed, the double-averaged GVAR forecasts perform better than the benchmark competitors, especially for output, inflation and real equity prices.     

The Unemployment–Output Tradeoff in Transition Economies: Does Okun''s Law Apply?

This paper investigates whether an Okun-type relationship between output and unemployment is taking hold in formerly planned economies as they move towards the market. Using a first-differences variant of Okun's Law, we test for its presence in 25 transition countries divided into groups of ``reform leaders' and ``reform laggards.' For leaders, represented by the 10 European Union (EU) accession countries, Okun's Law is detected in both 1991–94 and 1995–2000 periods. For laggards, represented by the remaining group, it is present only for the later period and only when countries affected by wars are removed from the sample. A comparison of unemployment–output elasticities and unemployment levels in EU candidates and EU members themselves indicates that their labor markets might be converging.     

Analyzing the Relationships between Individual Criminal Behavior and the Severity and Probability of Punishment

This paper deals with problems encountered in analyzing how an individual is deterred from committing a crime by the severity and probability of punishment. It is argued that it might be advantageous to base such an analysis on a model of maximization of expected utility. According to this model, the attractiveness of committing a crime is strongly affected by the product of the relative utility of committing the crime and being punished as compared with the utility of not committing the crime times the probability of the punishment. This implies that the bivariate linear relationships of choices to commit or not to commit crime and the severity and probability factors are dependent on the variations in both these factors and their mean values. In this paper, these bivariate relationships are analyzed in two ways – formally-algebraically and by numerical examples.     

科技成果转化中团队之间知识学习与共享的博弈研究

科技成果转化是一项复杂的系统工程,其本质是知识流的运动。科技成果的转化需要团队之间的协作、配合。团队之间的知识共享方式分为两种:紧密知识共享联合体和松散知识共享联合体。当共享知识为显性知识时,双方都采用弱联系策略,当共享知识为隐性知识时,双方都采用强联系策略。知识共享方式也会对双方的学习态度产生影响。     

Executive Turnover and Outside Directors on Two‐Tiered Boards

This paper examines the determinants of executive turnover on two‐tiered boards, emphasizing the monitoring role of supervisory board members with simultaneous outside directorships. Based on a unique sample of executives from large German firms, we find that outside supervisory board members generally increase executive turnover at the firms they monitor. This influence is especially pronounced when outside supervisory board members are simultaneously active as managers themselves and capital control is rather weak. These results suggest that external managers on supervisory boards enhance the monitoring intensity and substitute for weak capital control in the absence of large shareholders. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the dynamics of the Israeli–Arab arms race

This article investigates the causal relationships between the military expenditures and military burden of the four major sides of the Israeli–Arab conflict, namely, Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria over the period 1960–2004. We utilize both the causality test suggested by Toda and Yamamoto [Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225–250] and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition method of [Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1998). Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models. Economics Letters, 58, 17–29]. Our findings suggest weak causality that runs usually from Israel's to Arab's military spending. The strongest links are between Israel and Syria that are still in a state of enmity. No causality was detected between Israel's and Jordan's military spending.     

Speculative hyperinflations and currency substitution

We propose a rational expectations framework for understanding speculative hyperinflations that end in response to ‘orthodox’ stabilization programs. Motivated by a strong degree of hysteresis in the stock of real balances after the end of hyperinflations, we provide a cash-and-credit model in which the money demand exhibits persistence because individuals can establish long-lasting credit relationships. We use the model to show that if hysteresis in real balances is possible then a fiscal–monetary reform that successfully stops a speculative hyperinflation may fail to prevent it. We argue that speculative hyperinflationary equilibria are consistent with some key stylized facts observed in extreme hyperinflations.     

Trade and the balance of payments

The trade data has been particularly volatile this year. After a weak start to 2013, the volume of goods and services exports increased by 3% quarter‐on‐quarter in Q2. But monthly data since has again been weak and a substantial decline in exports looks likely for Q3…     

Organizations and meta-organizations

Most theories about organizations assume implicitly or explicitly that the members of organizations are individual persons. However, a large and growing number of organizations are “meta-organizations” whose members are other organizations. How organizations function is affected by the kind of members that they have. In this article it is argued that meta-organizations differ from individual-based organizations in important ways, and that they thus call for somewhat different theories. An outline of a theory for meta-organizations is suggested below. It aims to explain three fundamental elements in any theory of organizations: the creating and sustaining of formal organizations, the sources of and the reactions to conflict within organizations, and the question of organizational change.     

On moral hazard and nonexclusive contracts

We study an economy where intermediaries compete over contracts in a nonexclusive insurance market affected by moral hazard. In this context, we show that, contrarily to what is commonly believed, market equilibria may fail to be efficient even if the planner is not allowed to enforce exclusivity of trades (third best inefficiency). Our setting is the same as that of Bisin and Guaitoli [Bisin, A., Guaitoli, D., 2004. Moral hazard with nonexclusive contracts. Rand Journal of Economics 2, 306–328]. We hence argue that some of the equilibrium conditions they imposed are not necessary, and we exhibit a set of equilibrium allocations which fail to satisfy them.     

Monetary incentives and social ties in academic publications

Monetary incentives underlie academic publications, especially in countries where many researchers' incomes are performance-based. Evidence has documented that social ties improve the chances of publication in journals, whereas building and maintaining social ties require resources. We develop a simple model to investigate the consequences of monetary investment on the probability of publication through social ties. The results indicate that monetary incentive can stimulate researchers to make more efforts regarding publication. Through social ties, monetary investment in the process of academic publication distorts researchers' incentive. Monetary investment through social ties improves the probability of publication and then disables the signaling function of publication in terms of researchers’ abilities. Depending on the contribution of different types of researchers to society and the ability of the latter to differentiate the quality of publication in journals, the improvement in publication probability by monetary investment through social ties may improve or reduce the level of social welfare.     

Estimated Precision for Predictions from Generalized Linear Models in Sociological Research

In this paper I present a general method forconstructing confidence intervals for predictionsfrom the generalized linear model in sociologicalresearch. I demonstrate that the method used forconstructing confidence intervals for predictions inclassical linear models is indeed a special case ofthe method for generalized linear models. I examinefour such models – the binary logit, the binaryprobit, the ordinal logit, and the Poissonregression model – to construct confidence intervalsfor predicted values in the form of probability,odds, Z score, or event count. The estimatedconfidence interval for an event prediction, whenapplied judiciously, can give the researcher usefulinformation and an estimated measure of precisionfor the prediction so that interpretation ofestimates from the generalized linear model becomeseasier.     

Social Capital and Social Influence on the Board of Directors

It is often assumed that directors with human capital such as prior management experience or independence from the company are the most influential board members. By contrast, in a survey of all the board members in 14 companies we found that ties to others in a network of strong ties among those who meet outside of board meetings were more important predictors of social influence than human capital or ties across boards. These ties within the board represent the social capital of members in the form of prior relationships with other directors, ties to others on the board, and membership in cliques within the board's network of ties. These results support a social capital perspective on influence that emphasizes relationships with others on the board as important factors in the social dynamics of board decision-making.     

Restricted houseswapping games

Restricted houseswapping games (RHGs) are a generalization of ‘one-sided matching games’, in which we specify a class II* of ‘allowable’ simple trading cycles. The cores of such games may be empty. Given II*, all possible closed RHGs have non-empty cores of II* is ‘strongly balanced’. Examples include the one-sided matching markets (^{Shapley and Scarf. Journal of Mathematical Economics 1974. 1. 23–37}. ^{Tijs et al., OR Spektrum 1984, 6, 119–123}; ^{Quinzii, International Journal of Game Theory 1984, 13, 41–60}) and the two-sided matching markets (^{Gale and Shapley. American Mathematical Monthly 1962. 69, 9–16}; ^{Shapley and Shubik, International Journal of Game Theory 1972, 1, 111–130}: and ^{Demange and Gale Econometrica 1985, 53, 873–888}).We then consider the subclass of RHGs in which there is no transferable resource. In this case, a weaker condition on II*, called ‘weak balancedness’, is sufficient to guarantee core non-emptiness. In addition, if II* is not weakly balanced, then there exists a preference profile such that the strict core of the resultant game is empty.Several other examples are given of II* that are (a) strongly balanced: (b) weakly balanced but not strongly balanced: and (c) not even weakly balanced.Finally, we discuss the issues of equilibrium definition, existence, and core-equilibrium allocation equivalence in RHGs.     

House prices, wealth effects, and the Singapore macroeconomy

This paper examines the effect housing wealth has upon aggregate consumption in Singapore. While past research has focused only on changes in private housing wealth, the residential market in Singapore is dominated by the public housing sector. The massive public housing segment can generate potentially different wealth effects from standard private housing markets given the former’s unique institutional features. In particular, public housing owners who sell their units at market rates can repurchase a public flat at subsidized prices whereas private homeowners typically cannot. We estimate the link between consumption expenditure and both private and public housing wealth using a VARX approach for the Q1:1990–Q4:2002 period. We find that changes in private house prices have no significant effect on aggregate consumption. In contrast, public housing wealth effects are larger and more persistent.     

Exact and asymptotic tests for possibly non-regular hypotheses on stochastic volatility models

We study the problem of testing hypotheses on the parameters of one- and two-factor stochastic volatility models (SV), allowing for the possible presence of non-regularities such as singular moment conditions and unidentified parameters, which can lead to non-standard asymptotic distributions. We focus on the development of simulation-based exact procedures–whose level can be controlled in finite samples–as well as on large-sample procedures which remain valid under non-regular conditions. We consider Wald-type, score-type and likelihood-ratio-type tests based on a simple moment estimator, which can be easily simulated. We also propose a C(α)-type test which is very easy to implement and exhibits relatively good size and power properties. Besides usual linear restrictions on the SV model coefficients, the problems studied include testing homoskedasticity against a SV alternative (which involves singular moment conditions under the null hypothesis) and testing the null hypothesis of one factor driving the dynamics of the volatility process against two factors (which raises identification difficulties). Three ways of implementing the tests based on alternative statistics are compared: asymptotic critical values (when available), a local Monte Carlo (or parametric bootstrap) test procedure, and a maximized Monte Carlo (MMC) procedure. The size and power properties of the proposed tests are examined in a simulation experiment. The results indicate that the C(α)-based tests (built upon the simple moment estimator available in closed form) have good size and power properties for regular hypotheses, while Monte Carlo tests are much more reliable than those based on asymptotic critical values. Further, in cases where the parametric bootstrap appears to fail (for example, in the presence of identification problems), the MMC procedure easily controls the level of the tests. Moreover, MMC-based tests exhibit relatively good power performance despite the conservative feature of the procedure. Finally, we present an application to a time series of returns on the Standard and Poor’s Composite Price Index.