银行杠杆的顺周期行为与流动性关系问题研究

银行的高杠杆及其顺周期行为是一个与宏观经济波动以及银行自身多方面相关的重要问题。鉴于此,本文就银行杠杆的顺周期行为及其影响因素进行研究,并通过建立面板联立方程模型研究了与流动性之间相互作用的复杂关系。实证结果表明：我国商业银行杠杆存在顺周期行为,但不同类型银行之间存在差异。国有商业银行的杠杆顺周期行为并不十分明显,而较小规模的商业银行则强于平均水平。银行的贷款占比和存款占比对杠杆顺周期行为的影响存在非对称性,表现为贷款占比的增加放大了杠杆的顺周期行为,存款占比的提升则存在减缓的效果。银行杠杆与流动性之间存在相互作用关系,两者呈反方向变化,即银行杠杆越高,其流动性水平越低。考虑到杠杆本身的顺周期行为,那么银行通过提高杠杆水平扩张资产规模时,同样存在着流动性短缺风险。杠杆率监管要求的提出并不会显著影响银行盈利能力,而流动性要求的提高则会降低银行盈利能力。     

杠杆率监管引入对商业银行风险承担具有缓释效应吗?——基于中国96家商业银行的实证分析

中国2011年开始引入杠杆率监管指标来监管银行的行为,杠杆率指标不考虑资产的风险权重,有效地控制了资产从风险水平较低向高风险转变时所引起的资本充足率监管工具的失效。本文使用2007—2016年中国96家商业银行的经营数据,研究杠杆率监管对中国商业银行风险承担的影响,分析其引入之后能否缓释与弱化银行风险承担的问题。研究发现,随着杠杆率监管的引入,银行增大了对自有资本的持有比例,降低了银行风险承担程度,提高了银行的稳定性。并且杠杆率监管对商业银行风险承担缓释效应存在异质性。银行资产质量越差时,引入杠杆率监管对银行产生的风险缓释效果越明显。同时,也会给资产质量较好但杠杆率指标不达标的银行带来监管方面的压力。     

资产证券化对银行绩效影响研究

信贷资产证券化对于商业银行提升流动性、优化资源配置具有重要意义。本文采用中国银行业的财务数据，采用双重差分模型研究信贷资产证券化对银行绩效的影响。研究结果显示：信贷资产证券化能够显著促进银行绩效水平的提升。政策效果对于不同类型的银行具有明显差异，资产证券化对于中小银行及非上市银行的绩效影响更为显著。基于以上结论，文本提出合理应用资产证券化工具等建议。     

宏观审慎监管对商业银行资产配置的异质性行为的影响分析

本文2013—2018年的银行样本范围中既包括上市银行也包括中小规模的非上市银行,宏观审慎监管政策实施对商业银行资产配置行为的影响。结果表明：原本资产配置相似的银行受到监管冲击后资产配置行为出现了异质性。在上市银行组中,监管政策冲击并未导致实验组和对照组在信贷资产上的配置差异,但在非上市银行组中,监管政策的影响依然显著。此外,在上市银行组和非上市银行组中政策冲击都导致了实验组银行金融投资资产比例的上升,但上市银行组中的回归系数更大。     

银行竞争与货币政策的银行风险承担渠道

本文使用勒纳指数衡量银行竞争程度,基于56家商业银行2010—2019年的动态面板数据,实证分析银行竞争对货币政策银行风险承担渠道的影响。为进一步探究这种影响是否因银行类别和竞争程度不同而存在差异,将样本分别按照银行类型和竞争程度高低分组进行回归分析。研究结果显示：宽松的货币政策激励银行承担更多的风险;银行的竞争程度越高,资产规模越小,流动性水平和资本充足率越低,货币政策对其风险承担的影响越强;竞争加剧对这种影响的强化作用,主要体现在股份制银行和城农商行中;对于竞争程度较高的银行而言,流动性水平和资产充足率越高,对宽松货币政策的反应越审慎。     

大众资产自主管理背景下我国商业银行流动性风险管理

巴塞尔资本协议III作为此轮金融危机后国际金融监管改革的代表性成果,首次建立了国际统一的流动性监管标准和实施时间要求。2013年6月,我国货币市场的流动性恐慌,这表明了我国商业银行流动性风险管理的不足和亟需建立合理流动性风险管理体系的迫切性。本文阐述了大众资产自主管理背景下我国商业银行流动性风险管理,探讨了国际和国内商业银行流动性风险监管新规的要求,并在分析我国商业银行流动性风险现状的基础上,提出了我国商业银行提升流动性风险管理水平的相关建议。     

商业银行信贷资产预期信用损失问题分析与政策建议

预期信用损失的计提对商业银行经营业绩的影响非常重大,其披露的充分性影响到利益相关方对商业银行资产质量及经营业绩的客观判断。鉴于宏观经济环境的不确定性和预期信用损失模型参数、方法、假设的复杂性,如何合理运用预期信用损失模型并考虑管理层叠加是合理计提预期信用损失的关键。面对宏观经济环境的不确定性,中美欧主要银行在拨备覆盖率、拨贷比、信贷成本率及各季度信用减值损失计提趋势方面呈现出不同的特征,各银行在计提预期信用损失时所运用的模型以及在前瞻性信息预测和管理层叠加调整方面存在一定差异。为规范我国商业银行信贷资产预期信用损失的计提和披露,客观反映商业银行的经营业绩,本文建议有关部门加强对宏观情景预测和前瞻性信息实务运用的指导,规范管理层叠加的运用及退出机制,加强对预期信用损失法实施情况的监管检查,并制定预期信用损失审计监督指引。     

商业银行非系统性风险识别、网络传染及规模测度

商业银行的"影子银行"业务促使银行间市场交易量剧增,系统性风险积累严重,而系统性风险大小与各家商业银行非系统性风险、风险传染路径与规模有关。通过考察现有金融市场环境下银行间市场交易特征,引入一系列假设和变量对商业银行非系统性风险进行识别,利用网络模型估测风险传染及规模,并最终运用Logit模型找到影响因素。研究发现,(1)商业银行各类表内影子银行业务存在明显的业务替代性和刚性,并对银行间市场流动性资金过度依赖,系统性风险持续积累;(2)在复杂的金融网络结构下,商业银行风险传染体现为流动性风险与偿付性风险的交叉传染过程。当前我国银行系统体现为较强的流动性风险;(3)风险传染与商业银行非系统性风险有关,而非系统性风险与银行资产配置、交易头寸以及资本金等多项因素有关。     

流动性冲击与银行资产配置的实证研究

文章通过对我国银行业数据的实证分析，发现银行的资产配置行为与流动性冲击有显著的相关关系。市场流动性和融资流动性的提高能够改善银行的流动性，同时也激励了银行持有更多的风险资产。流动性宽松时期，不断提升的市场流动性和融资流动性，使银行风险资产过度膨胀，为危机埋下隐患。     

契机与风险并存——资产证券化对商业银行是一把双刃剑

改革开放以来,我国商业银行面临国际和国内间的激烈竞争,在金融创新的浪潮下,资产证券化产生并且迅速发展.资产证券化解决了商业银行贷款流动性的问题,扩大了银行的业务范围,然而,资产证券化在给我国商业银行带来契机的同时也存在问题和风险.文章以资产证券化为切入点,从商业银行角度分析了资产证券化给我国商业银行带来的契机和存在的问题及风险,并以美国次贷危机的实例分析了其对中国商业银行资产证券化的警示与启示,最后提出了规范资产证券化、防范资产证券化给商业银行带来的风险的一些对策,总结出对我国商业银行资产证券化的战略性思考,以期为我国商业银行在资产证券化的运作过程中遇到的问题与风险提供指导.     

Impact of Basel III liquidity regulations on U.S. Bank performance in different conditional profitability spectrums

We study the impact of the Basel III liquidity constraints, represented by the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and the net stable funding ratio (NSFR), on bank profitability, by employing the simultaneous quantile regression framework with time fixed effects. We find a positive and significant relationship between the LCR and profitability and the NSFR and profitability over most quantiles. However, the small magnitudes of the coefficients on LCR and NSFR across all quantiles of profitability suggest that LCR and NSFR have a minor quantitative impact on bank profitability. We then test and find that the Basel III liquidity constraints have a significantly different impact on banks with very low profits compared to banks who enjoy high profitability, emphasizing the need to use a quantile approach. We plot the coefficients to illustrate the impact of liquidity constraints across different conditional profitability spectrums. Lastly, we find that small banks are more vulnerable to short term liquidity risks (LCR) and big banks are more susceptible to medium to long term liquidity risks (NSFR). This suggests that considerations should be given to tailoring liquidity regulations based on the bank size and the relative bank profitability. The quantitatively small impact of the constraints suggest that Basel III has successfully set liquidity requirements to minimize the impact on bank profitability and the likelihood of an industry-wide liquidity crisis.     

Liquidity creation and bank profitability

This paper examines the effect of liquidity creation on bank profitability. Using a panel of US banks, we find that liquidity creation is associated with higher profitability. This result holds during normal times and the financial crisis, and for banks of different sizes. When we decompose liquidity creation into its individual components, we find that liability-side and off-balance sheet liquidity creation are positively related to profitability, while asset-side liquidity creation is negatively related to profitability.     

Factors influencing bank risk in Europe: Evidence from the financial crisis

We use a dynamic panel data model to analyze bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank risk for a large sample of commercial banks operating in the euro area. The selected time span, from 2001 to 2012, considers the impact of the on-going financial and economic crisis on the Eurozone banking system. Our results indicate that capitalization, profitability, efficiency and liquidity are inversely and significantly related to bank risk. However, the recourse to wholesale funding by banks seems to increase their risk. We also find that less-concentrated markets, lower interest rates, higher inflation rates and a context of economic crisis (with a falling GDP) increase bank risk.     

What makes Islamic banks different? A multivariate approach

Using data from 8615 banks (including 123 Islamic banks) in 124 developed and developing countries for the period between 2006 and 2012, we examine the financial characteristics that distinguish between conventional and Islamic banks. As banks’ financial characteristics are multi-faceted concepts, our indicators are constructed using principal component analysis. We find that Islamic banks are more capitalized, more liquid and more profitable, but have more volatile earnings compared to US and European banks. However, similarities in terms of liquidity and earnings volatility are more noticeable when the sample is limited to banks operating in countries where both systems coexist. Finally, we find that higher capital makes the returns of Islamic banks more volatile, while higher liquidity decreases the profitability of conventional banks.     

浅谈我国金融风险成因分析及会计防范措施

银行经营活动的运作过程,与会计工作十分密切,几乎每一笔业务都需要银行会计的核算与操作,防范金融风险的前提是防范银行会计风险。我国金融风险的成因有:商业银行的资产结构不合理,资产的盈利性及流动性差;金融机构采取粗放式经营方式,盲目扩张;金融机构内部管理松弛,运作不规范,约束机制不健全;银行自身风险意识差;中央银行的监管侧重于计划型和行政性、不适应市场经济。     

The impact of government intervention on the stabilization of domestic financial markets and on U.S. banks’ asset composition

The 2007–2009 financial crisis that evolved from various factors including the housing boom, aggressive lending activity, financial innovation, and increased access to money and capital markets prompted unprecedented U.S. government intervention in the financial sector. We examine changes in banks’ balance sheet composition associated with U.S. government intervention during the crisis. We find that the initial round of quantitative easing positively impacts bank liquidity across all bank samples. Our results show a positive impact of repurchase agreement market rates on bank liquidity for small and medium banks. We conclude that banks have become more liquid in the post-crisis period, especially the larger banks (large and money center banks). We show that real estate loan portfolio exposures have reverted to pre-crisis levels for money center banks and remained flat for all other bank samples.     

Does financial regulation affect the profit efficiency and risk of banks? Evidence from China's commercial banks

The goal of financial regulation is to enable banks to improve liquidity and solvency. Stricter regulation may be good for bank stability, but not for bank efficiency. This research aims to examine whether banks have met the CBRC's standard of financial regulations and explores how the previously implemented financial regulations have affected bank efficiency and risk in the past. In addition, we also explored the trade-off relationship between efficiency and risk. Unlike other studies, this study used bank assets as a classification standard from the financial risk and differential regulatory perspective.The empirical results indicate that the CBRC regulates the provision coverage ratio and cost-to-income ratio, which seems relevant to large banks and the loan-to-deposit ratio, capital adequacy ratio, and leverage ratio, which seems relevant to small banks. The CBRC regulates the current ratio to reduce the risks of banks. Based on our empirical results, the current ratio did not affect the risks and led to different efficiency results between large and small banks. In an environment with asymmetric information, a bank decision-making is unobservable. The characteristics of financial regulation provide market clues if a bank is operating at the most efficiency and risk condition.     

Federal Home Loan Bank advances and bank risk

The Federal Home Loan Bank system (FHLB) has evolved into a major source of liquidity for the banking system with the demonstrated ability to borrow over a trillion dollars in world financial markets based on an implied U. S. Treasury guarantee. The FHLB loans the borrowed funds to commercial banks at reduced rates that are not adjusted for the risk of an individual bank. Moral hazard could cause member banks using FHLB loans to increase financial leverage and exposure to high risk assets. Conversely, the FHLB offers banks additional liquidity and specialized debt instruments that help them manage interest rate risk. We use dynamic panel generalized method of moments estimation to test the relation between FHLB advances and bank risk. We find that if banks have relatively normal default probabilities, advances are not associated with increased bank risk but, instead, advances are related to decreased interest rate risk. However, when bank default probabilities are high, our evidence suggests advances and higher bank risk are related.     

中国居民金融资产结构变化对商业银行利润来源的影响

本文着重分析1992年以来我国居民金融资产总量和结构的变化;并采用四大商业银行1996-2008年的实际数据论证居民金融资产结构的变化对商业银行利润来源的影响。     

Bank profitability in the Eurasian Economic Union: Do funding liquidity and systemic importance matter?

The post-crisis regulatory architecture targets greater banking stability by imposing additional capital and liquidity requirements. Profit persistence, however, remains an important factor for attaining this goal. Using annual data for 2008–2017, this study analyzes the relationship between funding stability, systemic importance, and the profitability of banks in the three founding states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU): Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. The results show a strong degree of stability in net interest margin (NIM) and a lack of persistence in return on assets (ROA). Compliance with the minimum level of the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) reduces both the funding liquidity risk and the NIM of EAEU banks. Moreover, systemically important banks in the region historically operate at a lower interest spread and less prudent NSFR, which implies a potentially greater adverse effect on their NIM. Bank-specific variables have various impacts depending on the measure of profitability. The results also highlight that greater market concentration protects the NIM and negatively impacts the ROA of EAEU banks. Finally, Western sanctions have a destabilizing effect on the NIM of EAEU banks, but not on systemically important banks.