Economic, organizational, and political influences on biases in forecasting state sales tax receipts

This paper investigates factors influencing fixed bias in forecasting state sales taxes revenues. By extending an existing model used to explain forecast accuracy to include a series of complex interactions related to the potential political and policy use of revenue forecasts, the paper extends our understanding of the forecasting process in government. Exploratory empirical analysis based on survey data is used to provide evidence that bias in forecasting results, at least in part, from political and policy manipulation. There is also evidence that institutional reforms associated with ‘good management’ practices affect forecast bias, but in complex ways depending upon the extent to which political competition exists within the state.     

Spatially blind trade and fiscal impact policies and their impact on regional economies

The evidence for the US suggests that spatially blind policies often generate greater impacts on regional economic growth and development than policies specifically targeted at regions on regional issues generally. In this presentation, attention will be directed to two sets of national policies that have been promulgated without due consideration of their specific spatial (regional) impacts – trade policy and fiscal policy.Drawing on research conducted for the US, Japan and Brazil, an examination of trade policies will be presented, using the experience of NAFTA in North America and MERCOSUR in Brazil. Some further analysis of experience in Colombia will also provide insights into the role of national trade policy and, in the case of Colombia, fiscal decentralization policies. The second part of the presentation will examine fiscal policy impacts mediated through regional business cycles; the experience of Japan and the US will be examined.The results affirm the important implications that national (spatially blind) policies can have on regional economies; in the case of Brazil, trade policies have exacerbated already wide differentials in per capita income across states.     

检视都市永续发展指针的发展历程与内涵:从指针系统建构到政策评估

本文回顾国际上相关的都市永续发展指针系统,探讨指针系统架构与内涵之间的差异,进而说明永续台湾评量系统中"都市台湾"指针系统的重要特色,以及指针项目选定的理论基础.藉由永续台湾评量系统中22个范畴的型态辨识,本文分析了都市在台湾永续发展中所扮演的角色,确认都市生产与生活型态对于整体永续发展的重要性,也验证了生态系统观点中都市对于环境的依存与影响.考量都市发展决策过程需要永续性的评量机制,本文利用都市永续发展指针作为政策评估的重要变量,应用交互式计算机软件<感受性系统模型(Sensitivitv Model Tools)>以系统性观点进行都市发展政策永续性的评析.透过系统软件功能掌握变量结构的完整性以及系统变量之间的相互影响关系,并藉助于团体咨询与讨论的沟通方式建构半量化的(semi-quantitative)系统变量,配合概念化及模糊化的方式界定变量水准以及函数关系进行系统仿真工作.籍由系统仿真了解变量之间的互动关系,而政策评估案例分析显示台北市硬件建设政策较空间调整政策发挥较大的效果.永续指针与系统工具的结合整体而言提供了都市政策永续性评估的沟通与预测接口.     

都市农民的二次分化与分类社会保障对策

都市农民工在城市产业分工体系的影响上已经出现了具有层级意义的二次分化,由此产生了对社会保障需求不同层次的差异性,存在实施分类社会保障的现实可能性.因此,按照城乡协调的科学发展观的要求,城镇社会保障的制度扩展与制度创新应该依据都市农民工的分化状况有序地进行城乡社会保障制度的对策.     

股利政策冲突、稳健会计选择与公司债务成本

本文研究了我国上市公司的会计稳健性动因,并在此基础上研究了会计稳健性对上市公司债务融资成本的影响后果.通过对沪市A股公司2004～2008年相关数据的分析,在应计为基础的会计稳健性测量指标下,研究结果表明:与股利分配方案相关的债权人-股东冲突越严重,上市公司越倾向于采用更为稳健的会计选择;同时,会计稳健性越高的公司,债务成本也相应更低.本文认为,随着我国银行业的市场化,以银行为主体的债权人将基于风险控制的考虑,要求上市公司提供稳健的会计数据;在银行利率决策时,稳健会计信息发挥了作用,稳健性较高的上市公司得以获得较低的利率水平.     

State dependence in youth labor market experiences, and the evaluation of policy interventions

We investigate the extent and type of state dependence in labor market outcomes for young low-skilled Australians. Our model allows for three labor force states, employment, unemployment and out of the labor force, and for observed and unobserved heterogeneity. We find evidence of occurrence dependence, but no lagged duration dependence. A past employment spell increases the probability of employment in the future, but the length of the spell does not matter. A past spell of unemployment undoes the positive benefits from a spell in employment. Interpretations of these effects and implications for labor market policies are discussed.     

锅炉、压力容器焊接质量控制

文章介绍了影响锅炉、压力容器焊接质量的因素及相应的焊接质量控制措施,对提高锅炉、压力容器质量有一定指导作用。     

Satisfaction and dimensions of control among call centre customer service representatives

This study explores the perceptions of HR managers on the strategic management of labour turnover in a selection of large hotels in Australia and Singapore. The main argument is that the effects of labour turnover can be mitigated with strategically managed human resources through the four key HR activities. The hotel industries in both Singapore and Australia revealed a comparable range of HR policies and practices being adopted, with an explicit recognition of the contribution an organization’s human resources have on the bottom-line. There was a clear convergence towards minimizing turnover primarily through the recruitment, selection and induction processes. This was despite fundamental social, economic and labour differences between Singapore and Australia.