FDI、对外贸易对中部经济增长影响的实证分析

本文利用中部地区1993年至2007年年度样本数据,应用协整理论及格兰杰因果关系检验等现代计量经济学方法,定量分析了FDI、对外贸易和经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明,中部地区经济增长在短期内与对外贸易互为Granger原因,而外商直接投资在短期内与中部经济增长不构成Granger因果关系;经济增长对对外贸易的波动冲击表现出较大的正向效应,而FDI由于地区因素的影响,作用较小,同时方差分解也表明对外贸易在中部经济增长预测误差的方差贡献度中所占比重最大。     

高等教育对经济增长贡献的地区差异研究

本文运用Panel Data模型，对中国各地区高等教育对经济增长的贡献进行了计量分析，发现东部、中部、西部地区高等教育对GDP增长率的贡献由高到低呈梯次分布。因此，我们提出了中国应进一步“因地制宜”发展高等教育的政策建议。     

改革、政策的相互作用和经济增长--来自中国省级面板数据的证据

在省级面板数据的基础上,本文验证了经济开放、非国有化、财政改革等经济政策及其相互作用对中国地区经济增长的影响。我们发现:(1)对外开放(特别是对外资的利用)是中国过去十几年经济增长的重要政策因素,但这一现象在西部并没有表现。(2)财政改革也是推动经济增长的重要因素,政府从经济活动中的退出显著地提高了经济增长率。压缩预算外支出的比重有利于推动经济增长,这一特点在西部较为显著。(3)经济开放、非国有化和财政改革等经济政策在影响经济增长时是相互作用的。非国有化政策并不独立地影响增长,而是通过影响政府退出经济活动对增长的作用而影响增长的,而这个情况主要在东部有所表现。(4)在控制了经济政策及其相互作用的因素以后,区域经济存在着“条件收敛”的趋势。(5)在控制了其他因素的条件下,东部取得了更快的增长绩效,而中部和西部的增长绩效并没有显著的差异。(6)西部的经济增长模式与东部、中部有显著的差异,经济政策对经济增长的解释力在西部显著地低于东部和中部。本文的政策含义是,继续深化改革开放不仅是中国经济持续增长的希望所在,也是中国实现区域经济平衡发展的现实路径。     

中国经济增长中的地区结构

改革以来中国经济增长中的地区结构问题,是中国经济学界普遍关注的重大问题之一。我们必须了解以下两个基本事实。其一,改革以来,中、西部地区取得了很高的长期增长率。1979-1996年期间,中部地区和西部地区的国内生产总值年均增长率分别达到了9.57%和9.35%的高水平。其二,东部的高速增长并没有以中、西部增长率的下降为代价。东部的增长率明显高出于中、西部,始于80     

加速崛起看安徽

2008年,是安徽加速崛起的一年,尽管受到国际金融危机冲击和国内经济下滑的影响．下半年特别是三季度经济增长速度明显减缓。但国家加快中部崛起的政策没有变,沿海发达地区产业梯度转移的基本趋势没有变,安徽厚积薄发、经济增长的内生动力没有变,全年经济仍然保持了较高的增长水平,工业、商业、投资、房地产、出口、财政、金融领域主要经济指标累计增长率均在20％以上,     

社会保障和地区经济差异:1996～2004中国面板数据分析

本文运用1996～2004年中国31个省份离退休退职人员保险和福利费用支出及其他相关数据分析了社会保障水平与经济增长的地区差异。研究发现:养老金支付水平对经济增长的贡献存在显著地区差异,东西部地区养老金支付与经济增长的关系不显著;而中部地区,养老金支付水平及其对经济增长的贡献,则都呈“塌陷”态势。因此,根据地区特点完善社会保障政策相当重要。     

制造业集中、劳动力流动与中部地区的边缘化

我国制造业的省际差异与中部地区劳动力跨省迁出的省际分布差异之间存在高度的相关关系。中部地区劳动力向制造业的集中推动了东部沿海地区制造业的发展和集聚，这又增强了该地区对中部地区劳动力的拉力，在这种动态的累积循环中，中部地区边缘化的地位日益明显。本文的基本结论是，中部地区的边缘化是我国区域经济发展的内生性结果；其政策含义是，推动制造业发展对于促进中部地区经济增长、实现中部崛起具有重要意义。     

中国进口与经济增长关系的区域差异分析

利用面板数据对中国东、中、西部的进口额和GDP增长关系进行的实证研究。在短期内，GDP增长对进口额影响最小是中部地区，在长期，西部GDP增长对进口额影响最大。中国经济增长对拉动世界经济增长起了十分重要的作用，中国经济增长减速也会影响全球经济。     

中部地区金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究——以湖北省为例

文章在分析中部地区金融经济发展中的共性问题基础上,通过选取典型省份1993-2012年的数据,建立适当的计量经济模型,对金融发展与经济增长关系进行实证研究。结果表明,从长期来看,该地区金融发展水平对经济增长有积极正向的促进作用,但也存在一些因素制约金融发展与经济增长之间相互作用的充分发挥。并分析其中原因,提出政策建议。     

黑龙江省金融危机后宏观税收负担研究

宏观税收负担与经济增长密切相关,文章通过对2008年金融危机以来黑龙江省相关经济指标进行分析,试图揭示黑龙江省税收负担与经济增长二者之间的关系。结果显示该省税收收入随着地区GDP的增加而增加,地区GDP增长率随税收收入增长率的增长也呈正相关关系。为此黑龙江省需要促进经济发展,进一步规范税收征管,优化宏观税负水平。     

Determinants of Real Chinese GDP 1978–2014

In 2014, the IMF reported that China became the largest economy in the world according to Purchasing Power Parity rates. This study aims to explain the Chinese economic miracle. It focuses on frequently suggested factors influencing China’s real gross domestic product (GDP), such as export promotion, exchange rate policy, and foreign direct investment (FDI). The paper employs the Bounds test of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to test for cointegration. Once cointegration is established, Granger Causality is investigated using the vector autoregressive model and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) method. Two different combinations of the real macroeconomic variables exports, exchange rate, imports, and FDI were employed to examine Granger causal relationships. All explanatory variables, except for the exchange rate, were found to have plausible relationships with GDP. The exchange rate and GDP relationship was unexpected; a Renminbi appreciation was associated with an increase in GDP. To investigate this paradox, a third ARDL model was estimated with exports as the dependent variable and the exchange rate, world GDP, and FDI as the independent variables. In this model, we found evidence of cointegration and a plausible relationship between real exports and the real exchange rate. Exchange rate devaluation increased exports and thus indirectly increased GDP. Such findings help to resolve the unexpected results. Nonetheless, according to the Granger causality tests the established statistical evidence is rather weak. We found that both the exchange rate and FDI are no longer strong drivers of economic growth in China.     

Heterogeneous effects of bilateral investment treaties

Bilateral investment treaties (BITs) are an increasingly used policy instrument to encourage FDI inflows, particularly inflows into developing countries. In this paper we estimate a gravity model of FDI flows from a sample of OECD countries to a broader sample of developing economies, examining the impact of BITs on these flows. BITs are signed between highly heterogeneous country-pairs, with important differences found in terms of the institutional and economic distance between BIT signatories. These differences may help explain the mixed results on the effects of BITs on FDI flows in the existing literature, with our exploration of non-linearities in this relationship suggesting that the effects of BITs are increasing in the difference in GDP and GDP per capita between source and host. BITs appear to have no impact upon FDI flows for country-pairs that are too dissimilar in terms of the strength of their political institutions.     

Taiwanese industry competitiveness when outward FDI is defensive

The main purpose of this study is to examine the links between outward FDI and the competitiveness of Taiwanese industries. This is done by emphasizing the difference between ‘defensive’ versus ‘expansionary’ outward FDI. The empirical study is based on a panel data of 15 industries over the period 1991–2001. The results indicate that outward FDI of the defensive type, in particular that destined to China, while increasing industry efficiency has had a significant negative influence on competitiveness of the Taiwanese industry through its effects on innovative activity. While outward FDI has impacted the industry's productivity growth it has not decreased the industry's output growth or its share of domestic GDP.     

武汉市FDI与经济增长关系研究

基于FDI和经济发展的理论关系,选取1995年至2009年武汉市的历史数据,对武汉市FDI与经济增长之间的关系进行了分析,结果发现:①武汉市FDI是GDP变化的原因,但是武汉市FDI不受GDP变化的影响;②FDI对武汉市经济增长有着显著的正向推动作用;③两者之间存在显著的动态关联。针对上述分析结果本文提出了相应的政策建议。     

外商直接投资对宁波产业结构影响的实证分析——基于面板数据的研究

改革开放以来,我国在利用外资方面取得了举世瞩目的成就;本文分析了外商直接投资在宁波产业的分布特点,并采用面板数据模型检验了1996～2008年间外商直接投资对宁波三大产业的影响。结果表明,FDI的流入促进了宁波产业结构的高级化,但是FDI的流入对宁波三次产业的作用效果是不一样的,FDI与第二、三产业的发展存在明显的正向关系,与第一产业的发展存在明显的负向关系。     

The impact of foreign direct investment and human capital on economic growth: Evidence from Chinese cities

Using a panel of Chinese cities over the period 1991–2010, we examine the determinants of economic growth, focusing on the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) and human capital. Consistent with the predictions of a human capital-augmented Solow model, we find that the growth rate (along the path to the steady-state income level) of per capita GDP is negatively correlated with population growth rate and positively correlated with investment rate in physical capital and human capital. We find that FDI has a positive effect on the per capita GDP growth rate and this effect is intensified by the human capital endowment of the city. The latter suggests that one way that human capital contributes to growth is to serve as a facilitator for technology transfers stemming from FDI. Furthermore, we find some suggestive evidence that the FDI-human capital complementary effect is stronger for technology-intensive FDI than for labor-intensive FDI. Our results are robust to alternative measures of human capital, model specifications, and estimation methods.     

The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Malaysia: A Revisit

Abstract

The paper re-examines the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Malaysia, for the period 1970–2006. The cointegration results show that market size of both Malaysia and China have major, and a statistically significant impact, on FDI inflow to Malaysia. The results seem to support the argument that foreign investors tend to be more attracted to the country with a higher growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) because it indicates a larger potential demand for their products. In addition, the results also demonstrate that openness level of the country has a positive and statistically significant effect on FDI inflow, which supports the hypothesis that FDI can be attracted to a country with more liberalized economic reforms. Finally, the results show that literacy rate (human capital development) has significant positive effect on FDI inflow. The finding suggests the need for labor force expansion and education policy to raise the stock of human capital in the country. Using Granger causality test, we also find that there exist unidirectional causality from real GDP of both Malaysia and China, degree of openness and literacy rate to FDI inflow.     

FDI对中国收入分配差距的影响及对策——基于多维变量基础上的实证研究

FDI对中国城乡总量收入差距之间并不存在关联,但与人均收入差距有着明显的正相关关系。FDI与地区生产总值的差异存在很大关联,但只在东部和中部地区以及东部和西部地区的实证数据得到验证。FDI和产业生产总值的差距,由于FDI在第二产业上的大量存在,使得一、二产业和二、三产业间的现象比较明显。正因为FDI对地区和行业收入分配的复杂影响,加上FDI的溢出效应、产业和劳动力转移等因素,使得FDI和全国基尼系数之间的关联并不显著,FDI并不是全国收入分配差距拉大的重要变量。因此,为更好地利用FDI,发挥其对收入分配的积极影响,应鼓励和引导外商投资企业在中西部地区投资,进一步降低外资在某些产业上的进入门槛,培育和壮大国内民营企业。     

人民币实际汇率变动对中国FDI流入的影响——基于1979~2008年数据的实证研究

本文运用协整关系分析、误差修正模型、脉冲响应分析和向量自回归模型对1979～2008年度人民币实际汇率与中国FDI流入之间的关系进行了实证研究.研究结果表明:人民币实际有效汇率与中国FDI的流入之间不存在长期稳定的协整关系,而人民币对美元、日元和欧元的双边实际汇率却分别与美国、日本和欧盟对华直接投资之间存在长期稳定的协...     

Determinants of foreign direct investment in Cambodia

This paper analyses the determinants of the factors that might influence inward FDI in Cambodia by referring to its economic, geographic, and political characteristics. Using exclusive unbalanced panel data sets during 1995–2005, for both approved and realized FDI for, respectively, seventeen and fifteen home countries, the estimation results show that the determinants of approved FDI and realized FDI are somewhat similar. The FDI home country's GDP, its bilateral trade with the host country and the exchange rate have a positive impact on inward FDI flows into Cambodia. As expected, geographic distance negatively affects the level of FDI inflows in Cambodia.