Inferring Transactions from Financial Statements*

In this paper, we embed the double entry accounting structure in a simple belief revision (estimation) problem. We ask the following question: Presented with a set of financial statements (and priors), what is the reader's “best guess” of the underlying transactions that generated these statements? Two properties of accounting information facilitate a particularly simple closed form solution to this estimation problem. First, accounting information is the outcome of a linear aggregation process. Second, the aggregation rule is double entry.     

Financial Statement Comparability and the Efficiency of Acquisition Decisions

This study examines whether acquirers make better acquisition decisions when target firms’ financial statements exhibit greater comparability with industry peer firms. We predict and find that acquirers make more profitable acquisition decisions when target firms’ financial statements are more comparable—as evidenced by higher merger announcement returns, higher acquisition synergies, and better future operating performance. We also find that post‐acquisition goodwill impairments and post‐acquisition divestitures are less likely when target firms’ financial statements are more comparable. Finally, we find that acquirers benefit most from comparability when acquirers’ ex ante information asymmetry is higher, acquirers operate in volatile operating environments, and management knows relatively less about the target. In total, our evidence suggests targets’ financial statement comparability helps acquirers make better acquisition‐investment decisions and fosters more efficient capital allocation.     

Financial Liberalization and Foreign Bank Entry on the Domestic Banking Performance in MENA Countries

Abstract: This study examines the impact of financial liberalization and foreign bank entry on the domestic banking sector from 1996 to 2007, and builds upon and expands the work of Lee (2002). We find that foreign bank entry, financial liberalization, ownership structure and degree of openness of foreign bank entry positively impact domestic banking system operating efficiency, capitalization, risk management, long‐term soundness, financial performance as well as economic and financial development. However, foreign bank entry is associated with reduced profit margins and increased operating costs of domestic banks in countries with less developed capital markets. Empirical evidence seems to support the argument that foreign bank presence leads to better allocation of capital and eliminates connected lending practices.     

Benefits and Costs of Auditor's Assurance: Evidence from the Review of Quarterly Financial Statements

Even though there is a worldwide consensus as to the necessity of an audit of annual financial statements for public companies, there is divergence of views as to the review of interim financial statements. While some jurisdictions make it mandatory (e.g., Australia, France, United States), others allow the review without requiring it (e.g., Canada, United Kingdom). Using a sample of companies listed in Canada, we examine the costs associated with these reviews and the benefits they generate in terms of improvement in the quality of interim financial statements for the years 2004 and 2005. Controlling for the decision to purchase the reviews, we find that audit fees are 18 percent higher for firms with interim reviews and, contrary to many regulators' assumption, we find no evidence that this cost increase is proportionally higher for smaller firms. Regarding the benefits of interim reviews, we find no significant association between either accruals‐ or nonaccruals‐based measures of earnings management and the fact that the interim statements are reviewed by the auditor, neither in the interim reports nor in those of the fourth quarter. The results suggest that auditors' involvement with interim reports may not be as effective as previously thought at controlling the quality of interim financial statements.     

论现行财务报告的改进

现行财务报告体系存在着许多不足,文章提出应改进现有报表的部分项目,并增设全面收益表等相关的报表,完善现有财务报告体系。     

Office Size of Big 4 Auditors and Client Restatements

Francis and Yu (2009) and Choi, Kim, Kim, and Zang (2010) report evidence that Big 4 audits are of higher quality when the engagement office is of larger size. Specifically, client earnings quality is higher and auditors in larger offices are more likely to issue going‐concern audit reports. We extend this line of research to test if larger Big 4 offices have fewer client restatements. A client restatement provides more direct evidence of a low‐quality audit than earnings quality metrics or going‐concern reports, because a restatement indicates the client's auditor did not effectively enforce the correct application of GAAP at the time the original financial statements were issued. We analyze 2,557 firm‐year restatements in a sample of 23,190 financial statements originally issued by U.S. firms from 2003 to 2008. We find that Big 4 office size is associated with fewer client restatements after controlling for innate client characteristics that may affect restatements (client size, financial performance, industry membership, nonfinancial measures, off‐balance sheet activities, and market‐related measures), and a set of controls for other auditor factors such as fees and industry expertise. The study raises important questions about the ability of smaller offices to deliver high‐quality audits for SEC registrants.     

The Effects of Financial Statement Information Proximity and Feedback on Cash Flow Forecasts*

The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), in their joint Financial Statement Presentation project, are reconsidering the basic format of financial statements. The Boards’ preliminary discussions related to this joint project indicate that they intend to modify the required financial statements to increase the proximity of performance‐related information for each reported period. We provide evidence related to this potential change by investigating the effects of financial statement information proximity on investors’ ability to learn the forecast‐relevant time series properties of reported cash flows and accruals. We also examine the role feedback plays in this relationship. Our experimental results suggest that nonprofessional investors are able to more quickly learn the relation between current period cash flows and accruals and future cash flow realizations when financial statement information is presented in a single statement rather than separated into two statements. In addition, we find that nonprofessional investors exhibit lower levels of absolute forecast errors and less forecast dispersion when financial statement information is unified into a single statement. Finally, we provide evidence that nonprofessional investors who receive extensive outcome feedback on a single page initially learn more quickly and later, after learning has leveled off, accurately forecast more consistently than do investors who receive extensive or limited feedback spread across two pages. Overall, our results provide evidence on the effectiveness of alternate financial statement presentation formats and the potential usefulness of receiving more extensive feedback.     

Were Information Intermediaries Sensitive to the Financial Statement‐Based Leading Indicators of Bank Distress Prior to the Financial Crisis?

In this paper, we address two questions that emerged in the aftermath of the 2008 financial/banking crisis. First, did the financial statements of bank holding companies provide an early warning of their impending distress? Second, were the actions of four key financial intermediaries (short sellers, equity analysts, Standard and Poor's credit ratings, and auditors) sensitive to the information in the banks’ financial statements about their increased risk and potential distress? We find a significant cross‐sectional association between banks’ 2006 Q4 financial information and bank failures over 2008–2010, suggesting that the financial statements reflected at least some of the increased risk of bank distress in advance. The mean abnormal short interest in our sample of banks increased from 0.66 percent in March 2005 to 2.4 percent in March 2007 and the association between short interest and leading financial statement indicators also increased. In contrast, we observe neither a meaningful change in analysts’ recommendations, Standard and Poor's credit ratings, and audit fees nor an increased sensitivity of these actions to financial indicators of bank distress over this time period. Our results suggest that actions of short sellers likely provided an early warning of the banks’ upcoming distress prior to the 2008 financial crisis.     

Target Financial Reporting Quality and M&A Deals that Go Bust*

This study investigates the role of financial reporting quality in merger and acquisition (M&A) deals that are ultimately terminated (i.e., go bust). If a target is a U.S. publicly traded company, an acquirer’s initial assessment of the potential benefits associated with the acquisition of the company is based on publicly available information. Generally, the acquirer obtains limited private information from the target prior to announcing the deal, but engages in transactional due diligence after signing the acquisition agreement to affirm that the financial reporting warranties made by the target are accurate. We construct a low‐quality financial reporting score based on measures prior research identifies as being associated with less reliable, less relevant, and less precise financial reporting. We find that acquirers offer higher premiums for targets with low‐quality financial reporting. However, we also find that low‐quality financial reporting increases the likelihood of deal renegotiation, and contributes to the probability of deals going bust. We document that failed targets are more likely to restate their financial statements after the announcement of the deal, supporting our conjecture that low‐quality financial reporting contributes to deals being terminated. Our research develops a new measure of low‐quality financial reporting, documents that the measure is related to M&A deal outcomes and financial restatements, and provides insights into the consequences of M&A transactional due diligence.     

论经济全球化背景下的外资银行金融监管

我国正加快融入金融一体化和全球化,传统的金融监管模式已不能适应中国加入世贸后的新形势。在金融全球化、经济一体化背景下,机遇与挑战并存,只有通过监管理论创新进而达到监管制度创新,积极学习借鉴国际金融监管先进经验,在发展中加强监管,以监管促开放,促引进,促发展,我们就一定能够迎头赶上金融监管的国际水平,为我国更加积极主动参与国际竞争提供良好的金融支持。     

Creditors’ and Shareholders’ Reporting Demands in Public Versus Private Firms: Evidence from Europe*

In this study we investigate whether the importance of accounting information in contracting and communication with shareholders and creditors affects earnings timeliness in publicly disclosed general‐purpose financial statements. To operationalize the relationship between timeliness demands and the importance of accounting information to shareholders and creditors, we compare the (asymmetry in) earnings timeliness of public firms with that of private firms. We attribute public versus private firm differences in timeliness to shareholders’ demands when a country’s institutions provide strong investor protection. Similarly, we attribute these differences to creditors’ demands when the institutions provide strong creditor protection. Our analysis of public and private firms in 13 Western European countries suggests that creditors and shareholders have different timeliness demands. In particular, we find that the public versus private firm difference in asymmetric timeliness is not associated with a country’s degree of investor protection but positively associated with a country’s degree of creditor protection. The results further suggest that shareholders demand symmetric rather than asymmetric timeliness. An important implication of our study is that general‐purpose financial statements are responsive to creditors’ reporting demands, which contrasts with the idea that these — primarily private — creditors would use special‐purpose reports.     

Managing Stock Option Expense: The Manipulation of Option‐Pricing Model Assumptions*

This paper examines whether firms that voluntarily recognize stock option expense in their financial statements manage that expense downward more than firms that do not recognize the expense by adjusting option‐pricing model assumptions. To examine this issue, I collect option‐pricing model assumptions from fiscal year 2002 for both a sample of firms that voluntarily recognize stock option expense (“recognizing firms”) and a sample of control firms that do not (“disclosing firms”). The empirical results suggest that recognizing firms manage the recognized stock‐based compensation expense reported in their financial statements downward more than do firms that only disclose the expense. Additional analyses reveal that recognizing firms assume a lower level of volatility than disclosing firms in the option‐pricing model calculations; however, I find no evidence that recognizing firms manage the dividend yield and risk‐free interest rate assumptions more than disclosing firms. The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) recently issued Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 123(R), which requires the expensing of the fair value of stock options, so these results may be of interest to capital‐market participants and the FASB as they assess the reliability of stock option expense as determined by option‐pricing models.     

Disclosure Overload? A Professional User Perspective on the Usefulness of General Purpose Financial Statements

We survey a broad group of professionals who use financial statements as part of their job to assess the extent to which they believe financial reports suffer from disclosure overload. Consistent with the claims made by regulators, auditors, and preparers, we find that a significant portion of professional financial statement users believe disclosure overload is a problem. However, this group is in the minority, with about twice as many professional users believing that overload is not a problem and that more information should be disclosed in financial statements. This dichotomy presents a difficult challenge to standard setters aiming to improve financial reporting by altering the amount of information provided in financial reports. To that end, we complement existing research on the informativeness of accounting information by measuring perceptions of the usefulness of the various financial statements and their footnotes across a variety of tasks. Finally, we develop a framework that could be useful in developing a theory of disclosure overload.     

The Competitiveness of Commercial Banks in Ghana

Abstract: The paper empirically investigates the degree of bank competition and intermediation efficiency in Ghana. The evidence obtained suggests a non‐competitive market structure in the Ghanaian banking system, which hampers financial intermediation. The study also finds that Ghanaian banks are monopolistically competitive. It is argued that the structure, as well as the other markets characteristics, constitutes an indirect barrier to entry thereby shielding the large profits in the Ghanaian banking system. Further, it is argued that policies that encourage and stimulate greater consolidation in the financial sector would go a long way to enhance competition among banks and improve efficiency and profitability.     

Earnings Manipulation in Failing Firms

Prior literature and anecdotal evidence, most recently provided by allegations relative to Enron, Global Crossing, and WorldCom, suggest that failing firms (defined here as prebankruptcy firms) may be motivated to engage in fraudulent financial reporting to conceal their distress. I examine two research questions: (1) Are failing firms' prebankruptcy financial statements more likely to exhibit signs of material income increasing earnings manipulation than those of nonfailing firms? (2) Do auditors detect the overstatements in firms that they perceive to be failing? I predict and find that as (ex post) bankrupt firms that do not (ex ante) appear to be distressed approach bankruptcy, their financial statements reflect significantly greater material income‐increasing accrual magnitudes in nongoing‐concern years than do control firms. The accrual behavior of these firms resembles that of bankrupt firms that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has sanctioned for fraud. Like sanctioned firms, the nonstressed bankrupt firms display significantly greater (material) increases in receivables; inventory; property, plant, and equipment; sales; net working capital, current, and discretionary accruals in prebankruptcy nongoing‐concern years than do control firms. They also display significantly more negative changes in cash flows from operations and net cash and a greater disparity between accrual‐based net income and operating cash flows than do control firms, consistent with Lee, Ingram, and Howard 1999. Finally, I predict and find that these firms' going‐concern years reflect evidence consistent with auditor‐prompted reversal of previous overstatements. These results are based on parametric and nonparametric tests for various subsample combinations drawn from a sample of 293 bankrupt firms representing approximately 2,500 observations.     

创业板公司关键财务指标与股价关联性研究

以2009-2011三个年度创业板全部上市公司为研究对象,选取关键财务指标,运用主成分分析方法及简单多元回归模型,研究了财务指标与股价之间的相关关系。研究发现,就创业板市场整体而言,财务指标与股价之间存在显著的线性相关关系,说明创业板市场较强地阐释了上市公司财务状况;同时市场对于年度报告信息的披露有直接反应,证明创业板市场尚未达到半强势有效;盈利能力与成长能力财务指标的回归结果较为显著,说明此类财务指标对投资者具有较强的指导意义。     

Access to Finance,Financial Development and Firm Ability to Export: Experience from Asia–Pacific Countries

With particular reference to Asia–Pacific countries, the present study examines how access to finance and financial development affects firms’ ability to enter export markets. Using firm‐level data from the World Bank Enterprises Survey, we found that access to finance plays a significant role in improving firms’ ability to export. In addition, development of the financial sector fosters export market entry. Among the financial development indicators, reach of the banking sector variable is most prominent. The present study suggests that improvements in access to finance and financial development (increases in the reach of the banking sector) enable firms operating away from capital or major cities to enter export markets easily. The present study supports policy intervention to strengthen access to the financial sector, which would encourage firms to export, and to facilitate export market entry for remotely located firms.     

试论预测性财务报表及其编制

预测性财务报表为投资者、债权人、内部管理人员及政府等有关方面提供反映未来财务状况及发展前景的有用信息,是财务预测定量分析的重要方法。本文结合实例,通过综合国家宏观经济政策、行业特点及市场的性质、企业战略及未来发展前景全面考察企业所处环境及发展潜力,阐述预测报表理论及其编制方法。     

Financial Development,Foreign Banks and Economic Growth in Africa

This study aims to examine and analyze the impact of financial development and foreign bank penetration on African economies. An empirical study for the period 1995–2015 is conducted using the system GMM estimator. Our empirical results indicate that foreign bank entry has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in the countries of North and Southern Africa, while in the other two regions considered in this study (West and Central Africa, East Africa) the impact is negative and rarely significant. In addition, our results show that the development of financial markets has a positive and significant effect on economic growth only in the Southern African region. The paper concludes that policymakers should focus on long‐term policies to strengthen the financial sector to truly meet the needs of African people.     

Financial Statement Complexity and Meeting Analysts’ Expectations

We examine whether firms with greater financial statement complexity are more likely to meet or beat analysts’ earnings expectations. We proxy for financial statement complexity using the firm's industry and year adjusted accounting policy disclosure length. Firms with more complex financial statements are more likely to just beat expectations than just miss expectations. Firms with complex financial statements appear to use expectations management to beat expectations, but do not use earnings management. Corroborating these findings, we find analysts rely more on management guidance for more complex firms. Firms with complex financial statements are also more likely to have analysts exclude items from actual “street earnings,” but tests suggest this strategy is not specifically used by complex firms to beat expectations. The effect we document is specific to analyst forecasts and not to other alternative benchmarks.