The role of expertise in risk communication: laypeople's and expert's perception of the millennium bug risk in The Netherlands

This paper focuses on the discussion of the role of expertise in risk communication. It describes empirical data on the risks posed by the Millennium bug in 1999 in the Netherlands. The study systematically examined the risk perception of both general public and computer experts with respect to the Millennium bug, assessing a potential discrepancy between the layman's and the expert's judgement, as has been observed in other risk areas. Two surveys were fielded, the first aimed at a random sample of the Dutch population ( n = 253), the second at a sample of computer experts ( n = 91). Results indicated that respondents did not perceive the Millennium bug to be a major threat. However, laypeople worried more, did see the issue as more personally risky, and did think the level of public awareness was higher than experts did. Computer experts felt more capable of taking mitigating actions than laypeople, and were more convinced that these actions were adequate. The implications of these findings for the role of expertise in risk communication are discussed.     

论保障公立医院公益性的主要条件

导致公立医院偏离公益性、出现市场化"逐利行为"的原因是多样的,办院理念的失误、管理体制和运行机制不合理、法律缺位、医德医风和医疗环境问题都是促使公立医院偏离公益性的原因。因此,在我国新时期的医疗体制改革过程中,实现国家卫生经费的大量投入是保证公立医院公益性的一项重要条件,但不是决定性条件,更不是唯一条件,要真正发挥出公立医院的公益性,必须从多方面、多角度、多环节入手,调整公立医院的办院理念、完善管理机制和运行机制、健全法律规范、倡导道德风尚、净化医疗环境,才能真正保障公立医院公益性的实现。     

Measuring the unmeasurable: an application of uncertainty quantification to Treasury bond portfolios

We extract from the yield curve a new measure of fundamental economic uncertainty, based on McDiarmid’s diameter and related methods for optimal uncertainty quantification (OUQ). OUQ seeks analytical bounds on a system’s behaviour, even where aspects of the underlying data-generating process and system response function are not completely known. We use OUQ to stress test a simple fixed-income portfolio, certifying its safety—i.e. that potential losses will be ‘small’ in an appropriate sense. The results give explicit tradeoffs between: scenario count, maximum loss, test horizon, and confidence level. Unfortunately, uncertainty peaks in late 2008, weakening certification assurances just when they are needed most.     

应对突发公共卫生事件的税收政策探讨

近年来国内外突发公共卫生事件发生频率增加,其对经济造成的负面影响不容小觑。税收政策是国家治理和宏观调控的重要工具,对中国这样一个拥有超大规模市场的巨型经济体,建立和完善应对突发公共卫生事件的税收政策体系,发挥其在疫情防控及经济恢复中的保障作用,不仅很有必要,而且对完善国家治理体系现代化具有深远意义。基于此,本文以新冠肺炎疫情为背景,运用相关理论阐述了税收政策应对突发公共卫生事件的必要性,对现有相关应对疫情的税收政策进行系统梳理,提出完善我国突发公共卫生事件的税收政策建议。     

公债功能的拓展:从理论到中国实践的分析

公债①既是一个财政范畴,又是一个金融范畴。公债功能经历了从财政功能到金融公能和调控功能的依次递进;在现代市场经济条件下三功能同时发挥作用,并体现为两个层次:财政功能和金融功能构成基础层次,调控功能构成较高层次。我国对于公债功能的认识和运用正在逐步走向完善。短期国债的供给严重不足抑制了金融和调控功能的发挥及其目标的实现。不过,其制度性障碍已不复存在。     

Perception of gene technology,and food risks: results of a survey in Switzerland

Perceptions of and attitudes toward genetically engineered food and other food hazards were examined through data from telephone interviews conducted in Switzerland. A random quota sample was used ( N v = v 1001). General attitudes toward technology and political beliefs significantly influenced perceptions of gene technology. Women were more concerned about gene technology and food risks than men were. The term 'gene technology' evoked neutral or negative associations in most people; few people held positive images regarding this technology. Perception and acceptance of gene technology varied according to the type of application; people were less concerned about convenience or processed food. Although it is mandatory to label genetically modified food in Switzerland, relatively few people were familiar with this label. Participants assessed various food risks, and principal components analysis indicated that they distinguished between technological and natural food risks. Implications of these results are discussed.     

公共政策视角下的环境税

我国环境税制度设计离不开公共政策视角。与环境收费相比,环境税将更好地发挥环境保护的公共政策功能。环境保护政策体系中的环境税,需要与其他环保政策工具协调配合。环境税需要在分类推进与整体调节中进行权衡取舍。环境税的开征并不意味着仅是增税,需要发挥其双重红利作用,和减税措施相配合,才能摆脱宏观税负悖论。环境税还需要和环境专项支出进行协调,以更好地实现公共政策目标。     

建立我国公共住房制度的财税政策研究

在公有制土地上建设的住房产品作为具有外部性的混合公共产品,属于广义的财政范畴,需要公共政策的干预。我国房地产领域现行财税制度对公共住房制度建设支持力度严重不足,导致住房产品过度市场化,普通商品房市场价格飞涨。这是公共决策行为严重失误的必然结果。解决高房价问题的关键在于解决中低收入阶层的住房困难问题,其根本解决之道在于市场机制之外正确的公共政策干预。必须改革我国现行财政分配制度,建立适应我国房地产业健康发展的财税制度,促进房地产业健康可持续性发展。     

论界定我国公共支出范围的标准

市场失灵理论是西方财政学说中的一项重要内容，它在揭示市场经济缺陷的过程中，引申出了公共财政存在的必要性。同时，也从另一个侧面证明市场失灵领域是界定公共财政支出范围的基本标准。市场失灵领域不断扩大不仅是由于市场经济的成熟和发展所致。而且还受到不同经济理论、国家经济政策的变化和特殊国情的影响，因此，科学地界定我国公共财政支出范围的标准，既要参照市场经济的一般原则，同时还要注重不成熟的市场经济的判定原则。     

论国有上市银行独立董事制度的完善

在银行业逐步开放的背景下,国家开放外资参股国有商业银行的主要目的是通过战略投资者的参股改善国有银行的治理水平。本文通过考察外资参股国有商业银行推行独立董事制度的部分实践并结合国内外关于独立董事制度的相关经验,提出独立董事在国有商业银行中的主要功能定位应不同于一般的上市公司,应主要发挥保护存款人利益,关注银行风险的作用。文章还对商业银行独立董事制度的建构以及如何协调独立董事与现有银行的外部监事制度的关系提出建议。     

和谐社会视野下对公共医疗体系的财政支持政策研究

公共医疗事关人民群众的健康安全和经济社会的平稳发展,是构建和谐社会的重要环节。但是,目前我国医疗体系存在诸多问题,影响着人们的生活质量,制约着经济的发展,也不利于和谐社会的构建。本文就我国当前医疗体系中存在的弊端进行了分析,并借鉴国际经验阐述财政如何促进公共医疗体系的建设。     

区块链技术在地方财政管理改革中的运用探究

区块链作为融合了分布式数据存储、点对点传输、共识机制、加密算法、智能合约等计算机技术的新兴应用模式,具有去中心化、数据不可篡改或重复、交易信息易于追踪和监督、交易流程公开透明等特征,为数字化时代下的财政管理改革和发展提供了新的思路和方向。本文在分析区块链技术特征的基础上,探究其在地方财政管理改革中的运用,为优化地方财政会计信息质量和预算编制流程、提高财政资金的使用效率、确保财政资金的合理合规使用和全流程可控、增加财政预决算信息公开透明度提出相关方案和建议。     

The state of foresight in food and agriculture: Challenges for impact and participation

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Growth and Welfare Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model with Public Investment

In this paper we analyze growth and welfare effects of fiscal policy in an endogenous growth model along the balanced growth path. As to the model we assume that sustained per capita growth results from public investment. The government uses its tax revenue for investment in public capital, for investment subsidy and for transfer payments. We then analyze how the balanced growth rate reacts to variations in those policy variables. Further, we study welfare effects of varying the fiscal parameters and demonstrate that, in general, maximizing economic growth is not equivalent to maximizing welfare on the balanced growth path.     

论微博问政对公共政策制定的影响

伴随着微博渐趋平民化与大众化,微博问政这一“民间舆论场”受到网民青睐.微博问政对公共政策的制定利弊皆存：它有利于推动社会问题进入政策议程,维护政策合法化,促进政策制定的民主科学化;但由于虚假信息过多、利益集团、国外敌对势力的干扰、数字鸿沟的差异使得微博问政给公共政策制定也带来消极影响.本文将立足阐述微博问政兴起的背景与发展现状,分析其对公共政策制定的利弊,最后将探讨提升微博问政在公共政策制定中效能的路径.     

Constituent Participation in the Australian Public Sector Accounting Standard-Setting Process: The Case of ED 55

The Australian public sector has recently undergone a period of intense reform including a comprehensive reform of financial reporting policies. A major aspect of this reform is the involvement of the Australian accounting profession in the formulation of financial reporting standards through the Public Sector Accounting Standards Board (PSASB). Despite this extensive change, scant research has examined constituent participation in the Australian public sector accounting standard-setting 'due process'. This paper considers the regulatory model adopted for accounting standard-setting in the public sector in Australia and identifies the implications of this model for constituent access to the 'due process'. In particular, the co-operation between the PSASB and the various regulatory bodies in each Australian jurisdiction suggests that these bodies may have more direct influence over the standard-setters than other constituents. The submissions made on ED 55 Financial Reporting by Government Departments are examined as a case study of the 'due process' as it operates in the public sector. Different constituent groups were found to respond in varying proportions, to hold conflicting positions on some issues contained in ED 55 and to use different strategies to present these positions. The research identifies a lack of input by the major group affected by the proposed standard, the account preparers (government departments). In addition, account preparers which did respond to ED 55 were found to use less sophisticated lobbying strategies than other respondents who weighted their responses by commenting on a greater number of issues and by supporting their position with conceptual arguments. These results support the contention that some constituents have favourable access to the 'due process' and that standard-setters may not have received all pertinent information from affected and/or knowledgeable constituents.     

转型期行政事业单位预算绩效评价规则研究

剖析财政部近期预算绩效评价部署与远期绩效预算改革定位的政策基调,提出面向绩效预算改革的行政事业部门预算绩效评价规则定位问题,整合涵盖评价视角观、范畴观与指标观的预算绩效评价规则体系,促进绩效预算改革实践的深入拓展。     

在西部民族地区完善财政生态补偿机制的对策建议

我国目前已经形成中央政府主导的对西部民族地区生态环境建设的财政补偿机制,但现行补偿机制具有很大的不稳定性、补偿不充足性、非长期高效性的特点,本文探讨如何为生态环境建设建立一种长效、稳定的兼容政府纵向和省区际间、流域间政府横向的财政补偿机制.     

The rise of risk: risk related bills submitted to the Swedish parliament in 1964-65 and 1993-95

Bills submitted to the Swedish parliament in 1964-65 and in 1993-95 were scored according to their major concern: risk, resource allocation or resource growth. It was found that risk related bills had increased strongly, from 11% to 28%, implying that currently almost a third of all bills in the Swedish parliament are related to risk issues. The absolute number of risk bills increased by a factor of four. Resource allocation bills, on the other hand, decreased strongly, and resource growth bills, a minority of bills, remained at a relatively low level. All parties except the Conservatives showed a strong trend towards increased risk concern, especially the Social Democrats. The most frequently encountered type of risks in the 60s were health related, while environmental risks predominated in the 90s. These changes are discussed in relation to the hypothesis that risks become more important during periods of slower economic growth. It is concluded that risk is currently a very important issue on the Swedish political agenda.