Public perception of scientific uncertainty in relation to food hazards

The research reported here aims to understand how people react to statements expressing risk uncertainty information in the context of a commonly experienced potential hazard, food related risks. Public perception of seriousness of risk for themselves, and for other people was examined for different types of uncertainty, for each of five different food hazards. The results indicated that participants responded to the different types of uncertainty in a uniform way, suggesting that perception of risk associated with uncertainty is not affected by the 'type' of uncertainty. The results further indicated that the seriousness of risk, in the presence of statements of uncertainty, was perceived to be greater for pesticides and genetic modification compared to BSE, high fat diets and Salmonella . It was argued that this could be due to the perceptions of low personal control, and high societal responsibility to protect people and societal control over exposure to the potential risks of pesticides and genetic modification. Under circumstances where people feel they have little personal control over their exposure to a particular hazard, and those social institutions that are perceived to be in control of protecting the public indicate that there is uncertainty associated with risk estimates, the hazard may appear to be 'out of control', which is associated with a perception of serious risk.     

Risk perception by industrial radiographers: Hungary and the UK compared

Perceptions of risks from two groups of industrial radiographers, one from Hungary, (n = 45) and from the United Kingdom, (n = 29) were compared by the psychometric method. The comparison was made because both groups were at risk for high doses of ionizing radiation. We found the groups had similar demographic profiles but poor socio-economic conditions of Hungarians were associated with higher levels of emotional distress. Correlation HU-UK for personal and general risks were at a significant level for topics that included lifestyle and radiation risks. Perceptions of risks from radiation were small except for large personal risk from East European nuclear power plants. Knowledge of radiation risk intranationally was correlated positively with personal risk for UK radiographers and negatively for Hungarians. However, average overall risk perceptions from the same topic list for all radiographers did not differ significantly from a group (n = 1461) of UK citizens, though radiographer's risks from radiation were considerably greater. As a new lifesaving intervention it was proposed that radiation risk reduction could be achieved by genetic testing.     

Guest Editorial

This is an empirical and quantitative study of the validity of four kinds of distal explanatory factors in risk perception. In an initial study, personality constructs (Five Factor Model, Myers-Briggs Indicator of Jungian constructs and risk attitudes) were related to risk perception data (26 hazards). A relationship was found between emotional stability and risk perception, but none with Jungian constructs. One risk attitude dimension, 'Macho' risk willingness, was (negatively) related to demand for governmental risk mitigation. In a second study with a different sample, indices were constructed to measure the four World Views according to Cultural Theory (CT) as well as Group/Grid dimensions, New Age beliefs and the New Environmental Paradigm (NEP) dimensions of Dunlap et al . Risk perception data were obtained with regard to 37 hazards, both general and personal risk. The respondents were a large representative sample of the Swedish population. Only about 5% of the variance of perceived risk was accounted for by Cultural Theory dimensions, considerably more by New Age beliefs and one of the NEP scales (eco-crisis). In a third study, data from the five Nordic countries were used to analyse the relationships between CT dimensions and risk perception. Only weak relations were found. The results are discussed in relation to other current work on models of risk perception and the question of what should be considered 'strong' evidence for a theory.     

The differences in perception of radiological risks: lay people versus new and experienced employees in the nuclear sector

This paper studies the differences in perception of two radiological risks – an accident at a nuclear installation and medical X-rays – between four different groups: the general population without (1) and with experience related to radiological risks (2), new employees (3) and professionally exposed people (4) in the nuclear sector. More precisely, this study determines if differences in risk perception can be explained by the level of experiences with ionizing radiation, the knowledge level about radiological risks, the confidence in authorities, the attitude towards nuclear energy, the trust in a management of nuclear installations, gender and age. The data are gathered using computer assisted personal interviews based on the SCK-CEN Barometer of the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre. The relations between risk perception and the independent variables are tested with linear regression analysis. The risk perception of both risks differs significantly between the four population groups. The professionally exposed people and the new employees in the nuclear sector have a significant higher risk perception for medical X-rays compared to the risk for an accident at a nuclear installation. For the general population without experience, it was just the opposite. The general population with experience does not have a significant difference in risk perception between the two radiological risks. Level of experiences with ionizing radiation is determined as an important variable; people have a lower perception of radiological risks when they have higher experiences with risk.     

Effects of air pollution on accounting conservatism

We examine the impact of air pollution on a firm's accounting policy conservatism. We hypothesize that, in response to risks associated with increased air pollution, firms apply more conservative accounting practices and utilize more conservative estimates in their reporting. Using a sample of Chinese firms, accounting conservatism measures, and a satellite-based air pollution metric, we confirm the validity of our hypothesis. Additional analysis suggests that the impact of air pollution on accounting policy conservatism is more salient for firms in high-pollution industries, firms under severe financial constraint, firms with higher environmental risk, and firms that receive high media coverage. Further, we document that air pollution does not significantly affect a firm's return on assets, year-on-year sales growth, or Tobin's Q measure. Hence, it is management's risk perception, not objective performance concern, that is driving accounting conservatism. Finally, specifically investigating accounting conservatism, we discover that, for firms with higher pollution levels, selling general and administrative expenses, liabilities provision, accrued expenses, and asset impairment loss are significantly higher.     

People’s responses to risks of electromagnetic fields and trust in government policy: the role of perceived risk,benefits and control

Trust in government policy affects the way people perceive and handle risks. In our study, we investigated the relationships between trust in government policy regarding electromagnetic fields (EMF), perceived risk and perceived benefits of public and personal EMF sources, perceived control over exposure to EMF and responses to the possible EMF health risk (e.g. protest against placement of mobile phone base stations or power lines, or taking own measures against EMF exposure). Previous research indicated that perceived risk and benefits mediate the relationship between trust and people’s risk responses. Additionally, we suggest that perceived control over EMF exposure affects the relation between trust in government policy and perceived risk, and, consequently, the risk responses. We performed a survey among the Dutch population (n?=?1009), which contained questions about risk responses to EMF, perceived risk and benefits of several EMF sources, trust in government policy and perceived control over EMF exposure. Comparing public EMF sources, i.e. power lines and mobile phone base stations, to personal EMF sources, i.e. microwave ovens and cordless and mobile phones, we tested our hypotheses. Variations in risk responses to both public and personal EMF sources were mainly explained by risk perception. In addition, perceived risk partially mediated the relationship between trust in government policy and risk responses. For public sources, perceived control over exposure weakened the negative relationship between trust and perceived risk. We conclude that, especially in people with low perceived control, a lack of trust in government policy may enhance perceptions of health risks, thereby increasing their inclination for risk responses.     

Perception of the risks and benefits of Bt eggplant by Indian farmers

Several researchers—most notably Lennart Sjoberg and his colleagues—have proposed that the moral aspects of risk provide a better explanation of risk perception than the psychometric paradigm or Cultural Theory, neither of which accounts for moral concerns. This study is possibly the first to assess empirically the perception of the risks and benefits of a transgenic food crop—transgenic Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) eggplant—by farmers in a developing country such as India. It also aims to assess if the moral aspects of risk figure in Indian farmers' perception of Bt eggplant and if economic benefits outweigh perceived risks. To answer the research questions, a scenario was used to elicit perceptions of Bt eggplant among 100 eggplant farmers in the state of Maharashtra in India. The findings indicate that economic benefits, safety concerns, and accountability are most salient to Indian farmers' perception of the risks and benefits of Bt eggplant. Significantly, none of the farmers mentioned moral concerns as an issue. The findings also make clear that economic benefits outweigh perceived risks. This study concludes that economic benefits are more salient than moral concerns to Indian farmers' perception Bt eggplant. It also proposes that an alternative theoretical model incorporating economic benefits, safety concerns, and accountability as key variables should be developed and tested for end users in the developing world.     

Associations between affect and risk perception

Risk perception research has been dominated by cognitive psychology as a theoretical basis for understanding how people perceive and judge risks. However, during the last few years the role of affect in risk perception has received increased attention. Potential hazards may cause worry and concern and, consequently, an affective component is involved. Affects are often assumed to be post-cognitive. The present study aims to test the hypothesis that an 'image of risk', i.e. affect, may precede cognitive judgement and need not always be a criterion variable. During the period 1996 to 1998 a questionnaire survey was carried out in Norway. In total 1450 respondents replied to the questionnaire. Structural equation modelling showed that the fit of the models of risk depended on the respondents' sex, education and the type of risks evaluated. In the majority of model tests the idea that an image of risk may predict the cognitive judgement of risk was supported. The study also identified two dimensions of affectivity. Cognitive judgements of risk seemed not be related to affectivity as such, but rather to one aspect of affect, i.e. worry and concern. Treating affectivity as one dimension may be a hindrance to detecting the real associations between general affect and cognitive risk judgements.     

Psychological determinants of financial buffer saving: the influence of financial risk tolerance and regulatory focus

With governments redistributing more responsibilities unto citizens, individuals have an increasing need for financial resources acting as a buffer against life’s setbacks and unexpected expenditures. The purpose of this study was to examine psychological determinants of saving for a financial buffer, for which a theoretical model was formulated based on the theory of planned behaviour with three new, domain-specific psychological constructs: financial risk tolerance, regulatory focus and perceived saving barriers. Data were collected with an online questionnaire that utilised convenience and snowball sampling to target both students and working individuals (N = 272). Regression analyses offered support for the proposed model, showing that participants’ financial risk tolerance (i.e. an individual’s attitude towards financial risk taking) was significantly associated with their subjective financial knowledge and regulatory focus. Furthermore, perceived financial self-efficacy and financial risk tolerance both predicted participants’ intention to save for a financial buffer. In turn, perceived financial self-efficacy and saving intention predicted self-reported saving behaviour. Importantly, perceived saving barriers mediated the relationship between saving intention and self-reported saving behaviour. In line with the proposed model, results also showed that a specific attitude-based construct (financial risk tolerance) is a considerably better predictor of saving intention than general measures of attitude towards saving. This study is also the first to demonstrate that regulatory focus influences financial risk tolerance. Implications of these findings for stimulating saving behaviour are discussed.     

Security or opportunity: the influence of risk‐taking tendency on risk information preference

It has been suggested that risk avoiders and risk takers differ in the extent to which they focus on the worst and best outcomes of a risky activity. By implication risk avoiders and risk takers should also differ in their risk information preferences. Specifically, as risk avoiders focus more on the worst outcomes, it was hypothesized that they would prefer negative information about the risk. In contrast, as risk takers focus more on the best outcomes, it was hypothesized that they would prefer positive information about the risk. In an information selection task, subjects could select newspaper headlines that indicated negative and positive information about a variety of risks. Contrary to the hypothesis, risk avoiders selected more positive information than risk takers. The results are discussed in relation to the influence of personality on risk taking. One tentative explanation is that differences in anxiety between risk avoiders and risk takers account for these results in that risk avoiders try to find reassurance by seeking positive information. Another is that the participants were seeking reassurance in a relatively involuntary confrontation with risks.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Financial Education on Graduating Business Students’ Perceptions of Their Retirement Planning Familiarity,Motivation, and Preparedness

Today's multifaceted and dynamic financial environment requires a high level of individual financial literacy to ensure that sound financial behaviors are the norm. Unfortunately, many individuals have limited knowledge regarding financial issues and are ill prepared to make sound financial choices. The purpose of this article was to benchmark and then determine if graduating business students’ perception of their retirement planning familiarity, motivation, and preparedness improved after taking a semester‐long course in Personal Risk Management and Insurance (PRMI). We discovered that business students were more financially literate than nonbusiness students and that business students’ familiarity with retirement plans and personal level of readiness to make retirement planning decisions improved significantly after taking the principles class. Specifically, we showed that only 15.8 percent and 42.3 percent of the nonbusiness and business control students, respectively, felt adequately prepared to make retirement decisions, while 82 percent of the business students who completed the PRMI class felt prepared. Ex post, graduating seniors who were exposed to coursework covering life‐cycle risks and options to treat those risks perceived that they are leaving college with a better ability to meet the financial challenges that await them. Last, we showed that significant differences existed in retirement plan and investment familiarity based on gender. Our findings provide support for including financial literacy as a general education requirement at colleges and universities.     

基于Logistic回归模型的个人小额贷款信用风险评估及应用

构建二分类 Logistic信用风险评估模型,运用光大银行某分行样本数据,评估商业银行互联网金融个人小额贷款信用风险。结果显示：客户性别、学历、年龄、收入、职业、属地等因素对个人小额贷款信用风险影响显著。其中,年龄、收入、学历等与客户信用等级呈正向关系,女性信用风险显著低于男性,持有信用卡、存贷比越低的客户其信用等级越高;一、二线城市客户的履约率普遍高于县地级市客户的履约率。鉴此,商业银行应对互联网金融个人小额贷款信用风险进行有效规避和分散。     

Risk as perceived by the German public: pervasive risks and “switching” risks

In 2001, a major project on the perception and evaluation of risks in southern Germany was conducted consisting of survey data as well as of semi‐structured interviews. With reference to the psychometric paradigm, this article analyzes public risk perception, pointing out the perceived risk semantic for nuclear energy, GM‐food, mad cow disease (BSE), crime, global climate change, mobile telephony and its radiation risks. These hazards reveal different patterns of risk perception and different levels of risk acceptability. Secondly, a comparison of qualitative and quantitative findings will be conducted: qualitative analyses indicate that the results of quantitative rating scales on the perception, evaluation and acceptance of technical and environmental hazards might be misleading since the public's focus on risks as elicited by open association stimuli relies much more on ‘everyday‐life’ and ‘pervasive’ risks than for instance on hazards emerging from new technologies. The relevance of technological risks tends to be dependent on the context: If explicitly mentioned in newscasts, in debates or listed in questionnaires memories, fears or other immediate responses become activated, yet they may be forgotten a short time later. We have called this phenomenon “switching effect” and the respective risks “switching risks”. In standardized opinion polls such ‘switching effects’ may evoke firm judgments, even if the importance in the interviewee's mental representation seems marginal.     

Risk perception and worry in environmental decision-making – a case study within the Swedish steel industry

Sustainable development is an important issue for the industry in order to fulfil legislation requirements and to be able to use green marketing as a competitive advantage. The Swedish steel industry has implemented a large number of environmental improvements, for example, within energy efficiency, raw materials and recyclability. Technical improvements can help the industry decrease its environmental impact; however, in order to reach sustainable development, more factors need to be considered: an effective environmental decision-making process, for example. This process may be influenced by personal factors such as risk perception and worry, which are factors that will not contribute to an effective decision-making process. The aim of this study was to investigate if personal worry and risk perception influenced environmental decision-making within the Swedish steel industry. Thirty-eight interviews were performed at 10 Swedish steelworks using the Q-methodology. The major perceived environmental risks with the facility and personal worry were assessed, compared to the day-to-day work. It was concluded that the major perceived risks were emissions of carbon dioxide, use of non-renewable energy and emissions of particulate matter. The decision-makers were mainly worried about emissions of carbon dioxide, emissions of dioxin and use of non-renewable energy. The environmental issues that were prioritised in practice (day-to-day work) were emissions of carbon dioxide, emissions of particulate matter and emissions of metals. Even though emissions of carbon dioxide were given the highest priority in the Q-sorts, there was in general no clear relationship between risk perception and personal worry with the prioritised environmental issues at the steelworks. The quantitative analysis of the Q-sorts and the qualitative interviews both showed that the day-to-day work was unaffected by personal worry and risk.     

The antecedent role of personal environmental values in the relationships among trust in companies,information processing and risk perception

Trust and risk perception are important issues for industries such as petrochemical companies, typically considered ‘less trustworthy’ because of the hazards associated with their activities. In this context, individual’s trust in companies may have influence on information processing mode that individual adopts to reach a judgement such as risk perception associated with industrial hazards. We take the heuristic-systematic theory (HSM) as the model for processing information about industrial risk, with trust in companies as its antecedent and risk perception as its consequence. However, this process may be influenced by factors such as personal specific values. This paper analyses, to our knowledge for the first time, the antecedent role of personal values towards environmental issues in the HSM of information processing. The model was tested using data from interviews with 992 residents in an area of the province of Castelló (Spain) close to a petrochemical complex. Structured equation models were used to analyse the data. The results demonstrate the proposed relationships. The main contribution of this paper is the corroboration of the direct and indirect effects of personal environmental values on the variables that make up the trust in companies-HSM of information processing-risk perception sequence. Finally, we recommend that the companies of the petrochemical complex consider the frank, open and bidirectional communication with the residents as the key element to break the association among pro-environmental values, distrust in the companies and perception of the risk.     

How do we handle new health risks? Risk perception,optimism, and behaviors regarding the H1N1 virus

During Autumn 2009, individuals worldwide were confronted with a new risk, the H1N1 (swine flu) virus and vaccination programs aimed at reducing this risk. We examine the hypothesis that risk perceptions for H1N1 as well as optimism about one’s own chances of contracting H1N1 vs. those of others would impact intentions to get vaccinated against the virus as well as avoidance behaviors such as avoiding air travel, public places where people gather, and those exhibiting flu-like symptoms. To examine this hypothesis, this study uses a survey of 944 residents of Great Britain taken from 2 to 8 October 2009 by Ipsos MORI, prior to the start of the National Health Service (NHS) swine flu vaccination campaign. Controlling for respondents’ personal characteristics as well as their risk perceptions for a familiar risk (food poisoning), we find that higher perceptions about the risk of H1N1 for oneself, trust in the NHS, avoiding those with flu-like symptoms, and having an at-risk condition for H1N1 are all significant and positive predictors of intent to vaccinate against the virus. While 42% of the sample exhibited optimism about their personal risk of contracting H1N1 relative to that of the average UK resident, optimism did not predict vaccination intentions, or avoidance behaviors. Higher risk perceptions for oneself regarding susceptibility to H1N1 as well as knowing friends who have had H1N1 and having an at-risk condition for H1N1 were associated with undertaking avoidance behaviors in general and a higher number of them. We conclude that for a risk about which individuals have limited reference points and great uncertainty because of the new nature of the risk, optimism does not influence the likelihood of associated preventive or avoidance behaviors as individuals rely on their risk perceptions only about themselves.     

基于贝叶斯网络的我国商业银行声誉风险度量研究

根据我国商业银行声誉风险分布情况,构建商业银行声誉风险评价体系。运用贝叶斯网络模型,考量国有商业银行2007~2012年间的485组声誉损失数据,得出声誉风险的超极限矩阵。实证表明,企业感召力缺乏、产品和服务缺陷、银行风险控制不足等成为中国商业银行声誉风险的主要因素,银行应有针对性地对其进行有效规避和分散。     

Influences of individual-level characteristics on risk perceptions to various categories of environmental health and safety risks

Over the last five decades, social science researchers have examined how the public perceives the risks associated with a variety of environmental health and safety (EHS) hazards. The body of literature that has been emerged diverse both in the methodology employed to collect and analyze data and in the subject of study. The findings have confirmed that risk perceptions vary between groups of individuals as well as between categories of EHS risks. However, the extant literature on EHS risk perceptions has failed to provide empirical insights into how risk perceptions can be best explained according to the interplay of both (1) the category of EHS hazard appraised and (2) the prominent individual-level characteristics that best explain observed risk perception differences. This study addresses this deficiency in the literature by providing insights into the individual and cumulative roles that various individual-level variables play in characterizing risk perceptions to various categories of EHS risks including ‘agentic risks’ like street drug use and cigarette smoking, ‘emerging technological risks’ like nanoparticles and cloning, and ‘manufacturing risks’ like air and chemical pollution. Our data are drawn from the 2009 Citizens, Science, and Emerging Technologies national study of United States households that investigated public perceptions of EHS risks, traditional and emerging media use, and various individual characteristics like personal demographics, socioeconomic factors, and perceptual filters. The findings show that some categories of EHS risks like those associated with emerging technologies may be more easily predicted than other categories of risks and that individual-level characteristics vary in their explanative power between risk categories even among a single sample of respondents.     

Interaction of individual framing and political orientation in guiding climate change risk perception

There is a general agreement that climate change is a potential hazard threatening the global village. An appropriate level of risk perception should be a critical issue in coping with the global environmental risk. We examined the determinants of the level of climate change risk perception. In particular, we examined if individual framing of climate change interacts with political orientation in guiding climate change risk perception. The main effect of the two factors was also investigated. A nationwide online survey (N = 592) was conducted in South Korea by a professional survey agent. When self-efficacy, trust, and other demographics were controlled for, multiple regression analyses revealed that those focusing on what is happening (diagnostic framing) rather than what-to-do (prognostic framing) had higher risk perception. More importantly, only conservatives showed significantly different levels of risk perception according to their framing of the issue. Conservatives inclined to diagnostic framing showed higher risk perception than conservatives favoring prognostic framing. This difference disappeared when it comes to South Korean liberals, indicating an interaction between individual framing and political orientation. The significance of investigating individual framing, not media framing, and their interaction with political orientation are discussed.     

Schöne Aussicht auf den Fluss? Wahrnehmung von Risiken aus Naturkatastrophen

Impacts of natural disasters have increased worldwide during the last decades. Facing the growing losses from natural hazards also in Germany, the question emerges how persons in likely affected areas perceive risks from natural hazards such as windstorm, flood, and earthquake. The everyday, ?intuitive“ perception of risks is basic for the individual, subjective assessment of natural risks. Consequently, perception and evaluation of risk is basic for behaviour in dangerous situations. It is also fundamental for decisions concerning preventive protective measurements. To be able to develop effective information and communication strategies and politics about natural risks, the perception and evaluation of these risks and influencing factors should be known. Therefore, the purpose of the study presented in this paper is to focus on the perception of storms, floods, and earthquakes and to study factors that influence risk perception. To study risk perception, a mail survey was conducted in summer 2001 in six regions of Germany which had been affected by windstorm, flood and / or earthquake within the last 30 years. Köln-Rodenkirchen, Passau, Karlsruhe, Neustadt/Donau, Albstadt and Rosenheim were selected as survey areas. In total, 450 persons responded the questionnaire. In the study a mixture of approaches to risk perception was applied, among them the psychometric paradigm. The project was conducted at the Institute for Insurance, Universität Karlsruhe (TH) and additionally funded by the Stiftung Umwelt und Schadenvorsorge der SV Versicherungen. The results show that storm, flood, and earthquake are rated heteroge-neously regarding their general dangerousness, several risk characteristics and attributions of causes. Personal characteristics, such as age, education level, and the experience of damage seem to play a role for the general risk rating. In addition, the risk perception of homeowners and tenants differs.