Perception of risk from air pollution and reported behaviors: a cross-sectional survey study in four cities

We investigate how public perceptions of air pollution, risk beliefs and self-reported actions to limit personal exposure to ambient air pollution vary across cities. Our analysis also examines the extent to which a number of individual-level variables are associated to self-protective and information-seeking actions due to bad air quality. Data was collected through a questionnaire survey in four cities with a total sample of 1202 inhabitants. We found a moderate variation in the subjective evaluation of local air pollution between cities, as well as in the levels of annoyance and distress due to air pollution. There was relatively little variation in perceived severity, worry and self-reported actions. No variation was found for self-reported attention to air quality levels and controllability beliefs regarding the risks from air pollution. Preliminary modeling of four self-reported actions suggests that self-reported attention to air quality levels and worry are important predictors of self-protective and information seeking behavior. We conclude that both personal and contextual factors have to be taken into account in order to understand public reactions to outdoor urban air pollution. We discuss the implications in terms of risk and health communication.     

An examination of market efficiency around hurricanes

Hurricane Andrew produced more than $21.5 billion in property damage in Florida and Louisiana. Hurricane Hugo caused about $7 billion in damage in North and South Carolina. Although both hurricanes were large, the magnitudes of their destruction and the geographic concentrations of their paths were markedly different. This study finds that Hugo and Andrew produced substantially different market reactions on property and casualty (P&C) firms. The industry was generally unaffected by Hugo, regardless of whether or not firms had exposure in the Carolinas. Andrew, on the other hand, generated a significant negative impact on firms with exposure in Florida or Louisiana. Other firms were not effected by Andrew. These observations indicate that the market demonstrated an ability to discriminate by the magnitude of hurricane and by P&C firms based on their degree of loss exposure.     

Improving lay understanding of exposure to electromagnetic fields; the effect of information on perception of and responses to risk

Studies show that, although many people are concerned about the potential health risks of being exposed to electromagnetic fields (EMF), lay understanding of exposure, an important determinant of risk perceptions and responses, is limited. In an online consumer panel (n = 245), we tested the effects of providing people with information about EMF on lay understanding of exposure, and on perceptions and responses to risks, using an experimental 2?×?2?×?2 design. Providing people with specific information explaining the distance–exposure relationship, clarifying EMF policy, or specifying personal exposure management options actions resulted in a better understanding of exposure. We demonstrated that information provision as such had no effects on concerns about EMF nor on perceived risk of personal sources, i.e. mobile phones, but lowered perception of risk of public sources, i.e. mobile phone base stations and high-voltage power lines. In addition, information explaining the distance–exposure relationship in combination with policy information resulted in reduced self-reported risk-aversive responses. Moreover, participants who understood more about exposure in relation to the distance to the source showed lower perceptions of risk, were less likely to restrict their own exposure, and more likely to accept new installations of public sources of EMF in their neighborhood. In contrast, awareness that exposure was mainly determined by personal use of EMF sources corresponded with higher perceptions of risk from personal sources and a higher likelihood to restrict one’s own exposure. Our findings provide focal points for improving communication on EMF. In particular, we suggest to include information clarifying the distance–exposure relationship to improve understanding of exposure.     

Ex-ante implications of sovereign default

I study how the possibility of default on external debts affects other capital allocation decisions in a small open economy. In the model, default has an option value derived from the randomization over ex-post default regimes, which depends on country-specific productivity shocks. This feature of default reduces incentives for ex-ante diversification, which would reduce exposure to the productivity shock. As a result, if the economys debt to capital ratio is allowed to cross a fixed threshold (identified in the model), the unique equilibrium exhibits an allocation of capital that is less productive in expectation and more volatile than in a benchmark model without default. The model therefore captures a number of salient features of emerging and less developed countries, where low levels of international risk-sharing have gone hand-in-hand with frequent and recurring default events.     

People’s responses to risks of electromagnetic fields and trust in government policy: the role of perceived risk,benefits and control

Trust in government policy affects the way people perceive and handle risks. In our study, we investigated the relationships between trust in government policy regarding electromagnetic fields (EMF), perceived risk and perceived benefits of public and personal EMF sources, perceived control over exposure to EMF and responses to the possible EMF health risk (e.g. protest against placement of mobile phone base stations or power lines, or taking own measures against EMF exposure). Previous research indicated that perceived risk and benefits mediate the relationship between trust and people’s risk responses. Additionally, we suggest that perceived control over EMF exposure affects the relation between trust in government policy and perceived risk, and, consequently, the risk responses. We performed a survey among the Dutch population (n?=?1009), which contained questions about risk responses to EMF, perceived risk and benefits of several EMF sources, trust in government policy and perceived control over EMF exposure. Comparing public EMF sources, i.e. power lines and mobile phone base stations, to personal EMF sources, i.e. microwave ovens and cordless and mobile phones, we tested our hypotheses. Variations in risk responses to both public and personal EMF sources were mainly explained by risk perception. In addition, perceived risk partially mediated the relationship between trust in government policy and risk responses. For public sources, perceived control over exposure weakened the negative relationship between trust and perceived risk. We conclude that, especially in people with low perceived control, a lack of trust in government policy may enhance perceptions of health risks, thereby increasing their inclination for risk responses.     

Risk perception by industrial radiographers: Hungary and the UK compared

Perceptions of risks from two groups of industrial radiographers, one from Hungary, (n = 45) and from the United Kingdom, (n = 29) were compared by the psychometric method. The comparison was made because both groups were at risk for high doses of ionizing radiation. We found the groups had similar demographic profiles but poor socio-economic conditions of Hungarians were associated with higher levels of emotional distress. Correlation HU-UK for personal and general risks were at a significant level for topics that included lifestyle and radiation risks. Perceptions of risks from radiation were small except for large personal risk from East European nuclear power plants. Knowledge of radiation risk intranationally was correlated positively with personal risk for UK radiographers and negatively for Hungarians. However, average overall risk perceptions from the same topic list for all radiographers did not differ significantly from a group (n = 1461) of UK citizens, though radiographer's risks from radiation were considerably greater. As a new lifesaving intervention it was proposed that radiation risk reduction could be achieved by genetic testing.     

Measuring and modelling risk in a naturalistic setting

Two studies were undertaken to investigate risk perception in a military context. A questionnaire elicited cadets’ (n = 136) ratings of three categories of critical incidents (threats, constraints, and suffering among civilians) on nine qualitative risk dimensions adapted from the ‘Psychometric risk paradigm’ along with perceived personal risk, general risk, security and anticipated anxiousness. Factor analyses of average responses to the nine dimensions revealed two components: dread and new risk, the former strongly correlated with anticipated anxiousness and perceived personal and general risk. In a prospective survey, peacekeepers in Kosovo (n = 766) reported frequencies of exposure to threats, constraints, and suffering among civilians, and rated their personal risk of injury, the general risk and their trust in security relative to the peacekeeping operation. The fitness of a path model relating risk perception to risk exposure was estimated with reference to data collected after two, four and six months of deployment. Results were systematic across measurements and fit-indices in suggesting support for the model. The results confirm and extend findings from previous studies on risk perception by showing the impact of both risk characteristics (qualitative dimensions) and actual risk exposure (frequencies) on subjective risk perceptions.     

Does a scopic regime produce conformism? Herding behavior among trade leaders on social trading platforms

Social trading platforms (STPs) are transparent online markets governed by a scopic regime, where order flow is publicly disclosed and participants are subject to constant reciprocal scrutiny. Participants on STPs can be categorized into trade leaders and copiers, where the former execute unique trades and manage the funds allocated to them by the latter in return for compensation. Given limited individual capacity and the competition to attract copiers, we investigate whether the scopic regime produces excess and perpetual conformism among trade leaders. Using data from a popular STP, and from an anonymous traditional foreign exchange broker, we show that the scopic regime produces excess levels of herding. Under the scopic environment, we find that herding is high when market information is scarce, which is evidence of herding due to informational cascades. We find herding to be relatively low among risk-seeking trade leaders, which may be a sign of overconfidence. Herding is high for larger trades, suggesting that traders herd to avoid the disappointment associated with underperforming on large positions. Finally, we show that herding in the scopic environment persists at much higher levels compared to traditional environments. Our findings indicate that exposure to a scopic information-rich environment augments the limitations and personal biases of individual traders, thus producing excess and perpetual herding.     

The dark side of diversification: The case of US financial holding companies

Potential diversification benefits are one reason why US financial holding companies are offering a growing range of financial services. This paper examines whether the observed shift toward activities that generate fees, trading revenue, and other non-interest income has improved the performance of US financial holding companies (FHCs) from 1997 to 2002. We find evidence that diversification benefits exist between FHCs, but these gains are offset by the increased exposure to non-interest activities, which are much more volatile but not necessarily more profitable than interest-generating activities. Within FHCs, however, marginal increases in revenue diversification are not associated with better performance, while marginal increases in non-interest income are still associated with lower risk-adjusted profits. The key finding that diversification gains are more than offset by the costs of increased exposure to volatile activities represents the dark side of the search for diversification benefits and has implications for supervisors, managers, investors, and borrowers.     

Exposure to PAHs of workers on contaminated sites: a modelling approach to assess the occupational contribution – the SOLEX study

The SOLEX study sought to assess the occupational contribution to PAHs exposure among employees working on former gasworks sites. Four categories of volunteers were selected according to their job profile: office, mixed, outdoor, and remediation (workers close to a soil desorber); during each of the two study periods (November 1997 and June 1998) a reference group was also recruited. Personal exposure was estimated by 1‐HOP measurements in urine samples taken before and after the shift each day of the study week. All participants completed a questionnaire describing their PAH exposure from sources other than job‐related. Each exposure job category is described by the median of the individual medians of 1‐HOP concentrations across all subjects in the group. Multiple linear regression models assessed the association between 1‐HOP urine concentrations and the occupational and general environmental exposure variables. The statistical models' fit were good (R ²?=?0.87 in November 1997 and 0.75 in June 1998). Belonging to the outdoor and desorber job categories and smoking were the key exposure predictors for both periods. Physical activity while at work, and commuting time (using an automobile) were also predictive variables in November 1997. Compared to the reference group, working outdoors and near the soil desorber represented 70–99% of the total PAHs exposure among non‐smokers, and 54–97.6% among smokers. A measurable excess of PAH exposure was observed only among employees directly involved in the soil remediation process; soil pollution was responsible for nearly all the exposure of these subjects, smoking representing a smaller fraction.     

The impact of individual budgets on the targeting of support: findings from a national evaluation of pilot projects in England

Individual or personal budgets are part of a growing international trend to encourage greater choice and control over social care services at a time of financial austerity. The authors' evaluation of individual budgets found that levels of allocated resources reflected a range of factors, including informal or carer support and disability levels. Furthermore, individual budgets were found to be cost-neutral compared with conventional social care delivery.     

Consumption-smoothing in a small, cyclically volatile open economy: Evidence from New Zealand

New Zealand's current account of the balance of payments has been persistently in deficit since the early 1970s and increased markedly during the late 1990s. Should this cause significant concern, for such a small, cyclically volatile open economy? Our results show that VAR1 and VAR2 forms of the traditional intertemporal consumption-smoothing model reflect very satisfactorily the volatile directions and turning points observed, that the data are not consistent with consumption-tilting to the present, and that New Zealand has had considerable success to date in consumption-smoothing around its average 5% current account deficit. Perhaps more unexpectedly, a Bergin–Sheffrin-type model of a small open economy with variable interest rates and exchange rates has not performed noticeably better.     

Societal and personal concerns,their associations with stress,and the implications for progress and the future

A survey of more than 2000 people in four countries examined levels of concern across 19 personal and 23 societal issues. On average, 49% were moderately or seriously concerned about the personal issues, with health, wellbeing and financial concerns topping the ranking. Country differences were small, but generational differences were substantial. An average of 58% of Generation Y were moderately or seriously concerned, compared to 35% of Pre-boomers, with significant differences for 14 of the 19 issues. In terms of societal issues, an average of 41% were moderately or seriously concerned, with social and moral issues ranking ahead of economic and environmental matters. Americans were the most concerned with societal issues and Australians the least. Societal concerns increased with age. Both sets of concerns, but especially personal, were predictors of perceived personal stress, although specific concerns were both positively and negatively associated with stress. The ranking of societal concerns, country differences, age differences, and the relationship between concerns and stress are discussed. Findings provide insights into the relationships between social conditions, personal circumstances and wellbeing, supporting an argument that researchers need to pay more attention to the “psychosocial dynamics” of contemporary life in assessing human progress as a pathway to the future.     

Would Smog Lead to Outflow of Labor Force? Empirical Evidence from China

This study examines the impact of air pollution on labor outflow and labor migration from the perspective of individual and regional heterogeneity in China. The empirical evidence shows that air pollution has a significant impact on labor outflow and labor with higher education levels, of male gender, and belonging to a younger cohort are more sensitive toward air pollution and hence more inclined to migrate. The labor force from cities and rural areas, as well as from eastern and central China, tends to migrate due to the negative impact of air pollution. The labor force in areas of north of the Huai River is more likely to migrate due to the severe air pollution caused mainly by heating systems in the winter.     

A new approach to estimate concentrations of alcohol ethoxylate in rivers in Japan for screening-level risk assessment

Alcohol ethoxylate (AE) is a widely used household detergent that is ubiquitous in aquatic environments. To assess and manage the risk of AE, its environmental exposure concentrations must be evaluated in rivers nationwide; however, very few AE monitoring data are currently available. Furthermore, developing a rigorous exposure model that would cover rivers nationwide would require a great deal of time, human resources, and money. We developed a new approach to estimate AE concentrations in rivers throughout Japan for screening-level risk assessment. In this approach, five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅) data were used as a surrogate indicator of the AE concentration in river water. The Tama and Nikko Rivers were ranked according to their BOD₅ data, and the AE concentrations of the Nikko River were then estimated using the Standardized Hydrology-based Assessment tool for chemical Exposure Load (AIST-SHANEL) model. For each river, the concentrations of AE in its waters were projected based on that river’s reported BOD₅ values, its ranking, the approximation formula for AE and BOD₅, and estimated AE concentrations in water of the Nikko River from the model. The accuracy of the projected values was validated by comparing the projected AE concentrations in water from the Tama River with its monitoring data. There are various technical uncertainties associated with this approach; however, our results suggest that this new approach can be applied in screening-level exposure assessment of other chemical substances that have properties similar to AE.     

Fuel hedging,operational hedging and risk exposure — Evidence from the global airline industry

The aviation industry is characterized by low profit margins and a constant struggle with skyrocketing fuel costs. Financial and operational hedging strategies serve aviation managers as a tool to counteract high and volatile fuel prices. While most research on fuel hedging has concentrated on the U.S. airline market, this paper is the first study to include airlines from Asia and Europe. We analyze 64 airlines over 11 years and find that Asian carriers are more negatively exposed than European airlines but less exposed than North American airlines. In contrast to Treanor, Simkins, Rogers and Carter (2012), this study finds less significant negative exposure coefficients among U.S. carriers. Using a fixed effects model we reject the hypothesis that financial hedging decreases risk exposure. One possibility is that the decreased volatility in jet fuel prices over the past few years has perhaps made airlines less exposed to fuel prices and hence, financial hedging is less effective. Operational hedging, defined by two proxies for fleet diversity, does not reduce exposure significantly, either. In contrast, a one percentage point increase in fleet diversity, calculated with a dispersion index using different aircraft types, increases the risk exposure coefficient by 1.83%. On the other hand, fleet diversity, calculated with different aircraft families, increases exposure by only 0.63%. These results are supported by the global trend of airline managers to reduce fleet diversity. Airlines have reduced their fleet diversity by 7.70% or 10.77% (depending on the proxy) between 2002 and 2012. The greatest reduction can be found among European airlines with 23.12% (28.04%).     

Public perception of scientific uncertainty in relation to food hazards

The research reported here aims to understand how people react to statements expressing risk uncertainty information in the context of a commonly experienced potential hazard, food related risks. Public perception of seriousness of risk for themselves, and for other people was examined for different types of uncertainty, for each of five different food hazards. The results indicated that participants responded to the different types of uncertainty in a uniform way, suggesting that perception of risk associated with uncertainty is not affected by the 'type' of uncertainty. The results further indicated that the seriousness of risk, in the presence of statements of uncertainty, was perceived to be greater for pesticides and genetic modification compared to BSE, high fat diets and Salmonella . It was argued that this could be due to the perceptions of low personal control, and high societal responsibility to protect people and societal control over exposure to the potential risks of pesticides and genetic modification. Under circumstances where people feel they have little personal control over their exposure to a particular hazard, and those social institutions that are perceived to be in control of protecting the public indicate that there is uncertainty associated with risk estimates, the hazard may appear to be 'out of control', which is associated with a perception of serious risk.     

Comprehensive indicators of traffic-related premature mortality

Motor vehicle circulation is associated with multiple social benefits; nevertheless, it is widely acknowledged that it also produces a variety of adverse health effects, of which the most relevant are associated with mortality from road accidents and exposure to atmospheric pollution. Though in Chile these impacts have been quantified and evaluated independently, no indicators have been developed so far to account for this activity’s global impact on public health, or to express the individual impact that can be attributed to each vehicle category. In order to fill this void, the present study aimed at designing and quantifying indicators that account for the global impact on health that different motor vehicle categories impose on Chilean society. Health impact was quantified as the number of expected premature deaths caused by road accidents and exposure to atmospheric pollutants. Total premature mortality was understood as the total annual deaths that occurred as a consequence of road accidents and the exposure to O₃ and PM_2.5 derived from traffic-related emissions of its precursors. All estimations were made considering Chile’s Metropolitan Region in 2005 as a basic scenario. Differentiated indicators were obtained for 15 vehicle categories as a function of different parameters: traveled kilometer, vehicle, and vehicle lifetime. According to our results, when the health impact of traffic accidents and exposure to traffic-related air pollution are considered simultaneously, major differences were observed with the indicators traditionally used by regulators involved in the traffic-related decision-making process. The implications of our results on risk management strategies are discussed.     

How return and risk experiences shape investor beliefs and preferences

Combining brokerage records and matching monthly survey measurements of a sample of individual investors from the Netherlands for the period April 2008 through March 2009, we examine how individual investors update their beliefs (return expectations and risk perceptions) and preferences (risk tolerance) as a result of their personal return and risk experiences. We find that investors' past returns positively impact return expectations and risk tolerance, and negatively impact risk perceptions. Realised risk, however, has no effect. That is, even in a highly volatile stock market period in which risk appears very salient, investors do not take it into account when updating their beliefs and preferences.     

How Risky Are U.S. Corporate Assets?

We use market data on corporate bonds and equities to measure the value of U.S. corporate assets and their payouts to investors. In contrast to equity dividends, total corporate payouts are highly volatile, turn negative when corporations raise capital, and are acyclical. At the same time, corporate asset returns are similar to returns on equity, and both are exposed to fluctuations in economic growth. To reconcile this evidence, we argue that acyclical but volatile net repurchases mask the exposure of total payouts' cash components to economic growth risks. We develop an asset pricing framework to quantitatively illustrate this economic channel.