中美能源消费增长的驱动因素比较研究

将投入产出结构分解法和加权夏普雷法相结合,运用1992和2007年的投入产出表比较研究中美能源消费增长的驱动因素,结果表明:(1)国内最终需求的成长、中间需求的成长和出口的成长均是两国的能源消费增长的正向驱动因素,中国的正向驱动效果强于美国;(2)技术进步和进口替代均是负向驱动因素,中国的负向驱动效果弱于美国;(3)国内最终需求的结构变化、出口的结构变化是美国能源消费增长的负向驱动因素,在中国却为正向驱动因素。     

经济发展方式转变是否降低了中国的碳排放强度——基于IO-SDA模型的分析

传统的粗放型经济发展方式在给我国带来持续经济增长的同时,也使中国面临日益严峻的环境污染问题。基于1992-2012年中国进口（非竞争型）可比价投入产出表,从经济发展方式的三大内涵出发,运用IO-SDA模型构建全面反映经济发展方式的9个变量,对经济发展方式各构成因素的变化对碳排放强度变化的影响效应进行实证检验,结果表明,研究期内经济发展方式的变化显著降低了中国的碳排放强度,主要原因在于能源强度的降低,其次为能源结构的变化及二、三产业内部结构的优化,但中间投入结构、最终需求结构、制造业结构、三次产业结构、进口率等因素的变化均不利于中国碳排放强度的降低。在此基础上有针对性地提出进一步转变经济发展方式以实现碳减排目标的政策建议。     

甘肃省能源消费的因素分解分析

运用迪氏对数指标分解法(LMDI)对甘肃省6大产业2006—2011年间的能源消费变动进行因素分解分析。将能源消费增长的总效应分解为生产效应、结构效应和强度效应3个部分。实证研究的结果表明,生产效应是形成甘肃省能源消费增长的主要因素,结构效应的影响不明显,强度效应则有力地延缓了能源消费总量的增长,但生产效应和结构效应之和明显大于强度效应,因此,在此期间能源消费表现为较快增长。     

从能源消费影响因素看天津市“十二五”节能工作重点

将能源消费影响因素分解为经济规模效应、产业结构效应、技术效应、人口效应和人均能耗效应等,对2000年以来天津市能源消费总量增长进行分析,发现产业结构变化并没有没有带来预期的减量效应,人口增长和生活水平提高驱动生活领域能耗上升,而技术进步成为抑制能源过快增长的唯一积极因素。在此基础上,对天津市"十二五"节能工作重点提出了建议。     

浙江省二氧化碳排放测算：消费排放与生产排放的对比

二氧化碳的减排日益为世界各国所重视,浙江省也为此作出众多努力。文章运用投入产出及结构分解方法对浙江省2002—2009年的二氧化碳排放情况进行计算和分解分析。结果表明:各年生产排放量都大于消费排放量;最终需求、调入及进口是导致消费排放增加的三个主要因素;出口规模是影响出口排放变化的主要原因;在此期间,中间投入效应有一定的改善;单位产值能耗效应也有较大改善;单位能源碳排放效应非常小,改善不太明显。     

人口年龄与知识结构变动的效应分析——基于武汉市经验数据的实证检验

文章从不同类型人口结构变动的效应入手,从理论出发,选取人口老龄化、人力资本投入作为影响投资、储蓄、经济增长的变量。接着选取2001²013年武汉市数据,对人口结构变动的效应进行实证分析并得出以下结论:武汉市近十余年来,以人口老龄化为主要特征的人口结构变动对投资和储蓄的效应为负,对经济增长产生了抑制作用,而以人力资本投入为主要特征的人口结构变动则刚好得出相反的结论。最后,就实证检验得出的结果,笔者提出了相关政策建议。     

基础设施对能源强度的非线性溢出效应——基于PSTR模型的实证分析

基础设施会通过溢出效应对能源强度产生非线性影响,但尚缺乏相关的经验证据。本文运用处理非线性关系的面板平滑转换回归(PSTR)模型,对交通、能源和信息基础设施的上述溢出效应进行了实证分析,结果发现:(1)基础设施对能源强度确实具有非线性溢出效应并显著为负;(2)三类基础设施的上述溢出效应具有低影响和高影响两种状态,其大小最终会随基础设施规模的增加平滑的转向高影响状态,其中信息基础设施的高、低影响状态间有较大差异;(3)我国中西部地区基础设施的上述溢出效应目前仍处于低影响状态。建议加快信息基础设施建设和中西部地区的基础设施建设,以提升基础设施对能源强度的负向溢出效应,在保障经济增长的同时尽可能的降低能源强度。     

基于STIRPAT模型的甘肃省能源消费碳排放影响因素分析

依据甘肃省1995—2012年的统计数据,在估算能源消费碳排放量的基础上,运用STIRPAT模型分析了人口数量、老龄化率、城市化率等人口因素,人均GDP、居民消费水平等经济因素和能耗强度与产业结构等技术因素对能源消费碳排放的影响,结果表明:(1)甘肃省能源消费的碳排放量呈波动上升态势;(2)人口城市化对能源消费碳排放的影响最为显著;(3)居民消费水平的提高是甘肃省能源消费碳排放的第二大驱动因素;(4)产业结构是影响甘肃省能源消费碳排放的第三大因素;(5)能耗强度尽管对碳排放具有一定的抑制作用,但效果并不显著。     

两种增长战略

需求增长战略理论和生产增长战略理论,根据人均产值变动与经济结构的变动关系确定经济增长的模型.需求增长战略理论强调需求对经济结构变动的作用,以恩格尔定律为传导机制分析人均产值变动对需求结构从而对整个经济结构的影响.生产增长战略理论强调经济结构对人均产值的作用,分析要素投入、技术、生产率增长和经济结构变动对需求从而对人均产值增长的影响.……     

上海市居民生活用能碳排放的因素分解研究

本文运用IPCC排放因子法和扩展的LMDI因素分解模型,实证分析了上海市居民生活消费碳排放的现状、发展趋势和宏观影响因素。研究发现:(1)1989—2016年,上海市人均生活能源消费碳排放总体呈较快上升趋势,始终显著高于全国平均水平;(2)上海市碳排放结构从此前的煤炭、电力、煤气三大主体逐渐转变为电力、汽油、天然气;清洁能源的碳排放占比逐步提升;(3)上海市居民生活消费碳排放增长的主要驱动因素是收入水平效应和人口增长效应,而抑制因素依次为能源价格效应、能源技术效应、能源支出效应、消费意向效应,能源结构效应的影响作用不显著。本文据此提出相应的对策和建议,以期为上海发展低碳社会、清洁城市建言献策。     

Penetration and Post-infection Development of Meloidogyne Incognita on Tobacco as Treated by Rhizobacteria Pseudomonas Fluorescens Strain P-72-10

The bio-control potential of rhizospere bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens against plant-parasite nematode had been demonstrated. P. fluorescens had shown the effect to enhance tobacco resistance to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita. Inoculation with P. fluoreseens in tobacco could lead to significant reductions in the number of juveniles that penetrated tobacco root and further life stage development of the juveniles. The number of juveniles penetrated into tobac- co root in treatment with P. fluorescens is significantly different from CK at 2DAI, 6DAI, 8DAI and 10DAI. Significant reduction and delayed development of juveniles that penetrated into tobacco root and treated were observed in treatment at 14DAI, 21DAI, 28DAI and 35DAI. In addition, P. fluoreseens treatment leads to a significant reduction in the number of eggs per egg-mass at 35 DAI. The results show P. fluorescens induced a continuously suppression on root-knot nema- tode M. incognita throughout their entire early infection phase of root penetration, subsequent life stage development and reproduction.     

On the Major Transformation of the Asia-Pacific Regional Structure北大核心CSSCISSCI

Recent years have witnessedsignificant changes in the Asia-Pacific regionalstructure featuring the shift in power balance among related countries as well as adjust-ments in their respective regional strategies. So what is the prevailing trend in thistransformation and what kind of regional order will likely emerge in the future？ To an-swer these questions, the paper tries to explore the following dimensions： the evolvingregional context, shift in power balance and power conversion, geo-political and geo-e-conomic developments and interactions between them, and evolving regional order. Asthe study shows, the broadening of regional geographical scope, the rise in the numberof actors involved, as well as changesin the relations among them, have combined tocast a pluralistic and complex flavor to the regional structure. While the power balanceamong China, the United States and Japan shifts, and power conversion is also occur-ring. China and Japan are paying increasing attention to their security roles, whereasthe United States under the Obama administration laid more stress on expanding itsgeo-economic clout. In spite of the intensifying geopolitical competition among China,the United States and Japan in recent years, a Sino-US strategic compromise-whichholds the key to regional geopolitics-isother front, some kind of geo-economicmore likely to take place in the future. On thecooperation will probably emerge. In the longerterm, it will be the geo-economic trend thatwill prevail over the geopolitical trend inthe region. Finally, the future evolution of regional order wiI1 mainly follow the eco-nomic logic, accompanied by the dilutionof its hegemonic and hierarchical nature.Hence, a pluralistic and complex regional community will emerge.     

For Better or for Worse? Local Impacts of the Decentralization of Indonesia’s Forest Sector

This paper quantifies the local impacts of mechanized logging on forest-dependent communities in Indonesia, before and after decentralization. A conceptual framework incorporates financial, social, enforcement, rent-seeking, and environmental impacts. Using data from 60 communities in East Kalimantan, the empirical results suggest that significantly more households received financial and in-kind benefits after decentralization compared to before. Many communities engaged in self-enforcement activities against firms both before and after decentralization. Post-decentralization, a significantly higher proportion of households perceived community forest ownership. There were few significant differences in perceived environmental impacts. Little evidence exists of a post-decentralization trade-off between environmental and financial contractual provisions.     

以资本管理为核心的银行治理综合评价指标研究

商业银行的特殊性体现在风险性、外部性和多重治理目标上，尤其集中体现在风险管理的本质上。风险管理日益成为现代商业银行的主体活动和核心职能，资本管理成为现代商业银行风险管理的核心。在整合EVA和RAROC指标的基础上。文章构建了以资本管理为核心的银行治理的综合评价指标，以求真实反映银行经营的成果，有效衡量风险收益和风险成本的对比关系，从而反映以资本管理为核心的银行风险管理的过程、能力和效率。     

Organization and incentives in the age of sail

The British Navy in the age of sail was the most successful bureaucracy of its time. Its organization and incentive structures differed importantly from contemporaneous private sailing ventures, but closely resembled those of today’s large corporations. To induce efficient effort, the navy used a hierarchical tournament, in which sailors competed for higher pay that came with promotions based on relative performance. Promotion probabilities, the option value of future promotions, and the higher effort required of men in higher ranks and on larger vessels, combined to yield a highly skewed pay structure.     

The German Hanse and Bergen – new perspectives on an old subject

Abstract

The Hanseatic League and her kontors (trading posts) were an integral part of the medieval trade system in Northern Europe. Hanse merchants dominated many markets in this region and managed to maintain a monopoly-like role in towns like Novgorod and Bergen for many centuries. Consequently, one focus of historical research about the Hanseatic League lay on the mechanisms that enabled the Hanse merchants to keep that strong of a position for such a long time.

This article is part of the discussion about this topic. Based on Lübeck merchants with business interest in the Norwegian town of Bergen, the so-called Bergenfahrers (Bergen travellers), it will give new insights into the Hansards' economical and social organization. The three main points are (a) the integration of the Bergen market in the Hanseatic trade network as an intermediary trading place on the vivid East–West route of Hanse trade; (b) the importance of the Bergenfahrers within the Hanse merchants' economical, social and political networks; and (c) the structure of the Bergenfahrers network patterns in the late Middle Ages.

In addition to new insights into the important role of Bergen and the Bergenfahrers within Lübeck's and the other Wendish Hanse towns' trading system, this articles provides further proof for the usefulness of the methods of Social Network Analysis in medieval economic research.     

Markteintrittstiming von Telekommunikationsdiensteanbietern

Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie analysiert für 87 Neuprodukteinführungen (NPE) und Auslandsmarkteintritte (AME) von Telekommunikations(TK)-Diensteanbietern in Deutschland, zu denen 42 Schlüsselinformanten in einer schriftlichen Befragung Auskunft gaben, (1) inwieweit deren zeitliche Eintrittspositionierung durch Marktcharakteristika und Unternehmensressourcen erkl?rbar ist sowie (2) inwieweit und gegebenenfalls unter welchen unternehmensexternen und -internen Situationsbedingungen deren Markteintrittstiming mit dem wahrgenommenen Eintrittserfolg assoziiert ist. Ein früher Markteintritt wurde dann realisiert, wenn die Wettbewerbsintensit?t im adressierten Gesch?ft niedrig und das Budget für den Expansionsschritt überdurchschnittlich ausfielen. Zwischen dem Markteintrittstiming und der Beurteilung des Eintrittserfolgs bestand ein nicht monotoner, umgekehrt U-f?rmiger Zusammenhang: Frühe Folger wiesen signifikant bessere Erfolgswerte auf als Pioniere und sp?te Folger, deren Erfolgsniveaus nicht signifikant divergierten. In einer Industrie, die durch starke externe Netzeffekte gepr?gt ist, fallen offenbar die Nachteile eines Markteintritts als Pionier oder sp?ter Folger st?rker ins Gewicht als die Vorteile dieser beiden zeitlichen Eintrittspositionierungen. Unabh?ngig vom Markteintrittstiming wurden NPE/AME von TK-Unternehmen als erfolgreicher eingestuft, wenn sie sich in einen Markt mit stark wachsender Nachfrage und aufeinander abgestimmt (re)agierenden Wettbewerbern mit qualitativ überdurchschnittlichen, abw?rtskompatiblen, erprobbaren und wenig erkl?rungsbedürftigen TK-Diensten engagierten.      

Financial Reporting and Trade Credit: Evidence from Mandatory IFRS Adoption*

We investigate the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption on trade credit. We document that firms in countries that adopt IFRS receive more trade credit from their suppliers, consistent with improved financial reporting quality and comparability playing a role in facilitating informal financing. This increase is larger for countries with a low level of societal trust, a poor pre‐IFRS‐adoption information environment, and stronger legal enforcement. These cross‐sectional results suggest that the conditions under which higher‐quality information is made publicly available affect suppliers' decisions to provide trade credit. This increase is also larger for firms with greater exposure to foreign markets, a finding that highlights the importance of more comparable international financial reporting standards in facilitating cross‐country trade credit. We also find that IFRS adoption has a stronger positive effect on trade credit for firms with greater liquidity needs. Finally, we find that firms in countries that adopt IFRS also extend more trade credit to their customers. Overall, our results support the notion that financial reporting can have a causal effect on trade credit.