Price Expectations,Distressed Mortgage Markets and the Housing Wealth Effect

Using a unique combination of regulatory and survey microdata, we examine the importance of the life cycle theory of consumption in estimating housing wealth effects for the Irish mortgage market. Since the recent financial crisis, this market has experienced substantial house price declines and negative equity. Thus, house price expectations are likely to be important in influencing housing wealth effects. We find a positive correlation between consumption and changes in housing wealth among our sample of mortgaged Irish households. Furthermore, we find that this positive association only exists when housing wealth changes are perceived to be of a permanent nature.     

住房保障改革目标：居者所有其屋

由于住房是居民的最主要财产，住房性收入是居民的最主要财产性收入，所以住房调节应是财产调节的重要途径，住房收入调节应是收入调节的重要措袍；让更多居民拥有自己的房产，是实现共同富裕的重要保障，是社会主义所有制的话要内容。使居民尽量拥有自有住房，需要抑制对住房的投资需求从而控制房价水平，把廉租房、公共租赁房和经济适用房制度改为政府为低收入家庭建房制度,发展住房合作组织和集资合作建房，解决好非户籍常住人口的住房问题。     

Housing Tenure Choice in Australia and the United States: Impacts of Alternative Subsidy Policies

This article compares the homeownership rates of young households in Australia and the United States and evaluates the impacts of the two countries' different approaches to subsidizing homeownership. Since about 1950, Australia's rate of homeownership has consistently been higher than that of the United States. The homeownership rate for young adults is also significantly higher in Australia. While the United States allows mortgage interest and property taxes to be deducted from income for tax purposes, Australia has provided cash subsidies for down payments and mortgage payments. We conclude that differences in housing costs and household characteristics do not explain differences in ownership rates. We also conclude that differences in subsidy policies have only a minor impact on ownership rates.     

How Does Mortgage Debt Affect Household Consumption? Micro Evidence from China

The high growth rate of mortgage debt in various emerging and developed economies has captured headlines following the financial crisis. In this article, we investigate how mortgage debt impacts household consumption behavior and various components of household consumption. Utilizing comprehensive household survey data from China, we show that households with a mortgage consume a higher portion of income than households without a mortgage. This is in line with the argument that having a mortgage reduces the uncertainty that the household faces regarding how much to save each month in order to be able to own a house, and this reduced uncertainty leads to lower monthly savings for the purpose of buying a house. We also find that among households with a mortgage, those who spend a larger share of their income on mortgage payments spend less on consumption, reflecting the crowding out effect of mortgage payments on household consumption. Furthermore, we show that a government policy of decreasing the maximum loan‐to‐value ratio has a significant impact on households’ consumption. The article offers the first evidence of the impact of growing mortgage debt on the consumption behavior of households, and will have implications for government policies that encourage mortgage borrowing.     

Using Multiperiod Variables in the Analysis of Home Improvement Decisions by Homeowners

Though approaching $200 billion a year, spending by homeowners and rental property owners on improvements and repairs to the stock of existing housing units has received little attention in the academic literature. Historically, studies of the determinants of home improvements have focused heavily on the static characteristics of the housing unit (age, value, size, location) and of the occupants (age, income, household composition). This article extends this inquiry by incorporating dynamic factors, namely changes in the composition of the household and previous spending on home improvements. The results of these enhancements are encouraging. Additions of household members and having recently undertaken a major home improvement project are significantly related to home expansion projects.     

国外住宅消费融资的经验比较与启示

随着城市化水平的提高和人们消费结构的升级,住宅消费成为人们消费的重点。在住宅潜在需求很大的今天,住宅消费融资是把住宅潜在需求转化为实际需求的一个很重要的环节。文章从国外住宅消费融资模式的比较与经验借鉴出发,结合我国现行模式的特点和当前的经济状况,对我国的住宅消费融资模式的发展和完善进行了探讨。     

Property Investment and Rental Rate under Housing Price Uncertainty: A Real Options Approach

The conventional wisdom that housing prices are the present value of future rents ignores the fact that unlike dividends on stocks, rent is not discretionary. Housing price uncertainty can affect household property investments, which in turn affect rent. By extending the theory of investment under uncertainty, we model the renter's decision to buy a house and the landlord's decision to sell as the exercising of real options of waiting and examine real options effects on rent. Using data from Hong Kong and mainland China, we find a significant effect of housing price on rent and draw important policy implications.     

The power of the vegetable patch: How home-grown food helps large rural households achieve economies of scale & escape poverty

This paper explores how the household’s capacity to grow food impacts their ability to achieve economies of scale in food consumption and how this impacts the geographic distribution of poverty across rural and urban areas. An accurate understanding of consumption economies of scale is vital for comparing poverty levels across households of varying size. Using Sri Lankan data on home-grown food consumption, we empirically confirm that such economies of scale exist and that large households tend to consume relatively more home-grown food than smaller households. The magnitude of these scale economies are found to be larger than those in market purchased food, but smaller than those found in housing expenditure. Consuming more home-grown food is also found to be positively correlated with per-capita calories consumed. Taking these effects into account in poverty estimates leads to a 15 per cent decline in the number of household who fall below the poverty line in rural regions.     

The Capitalization of School Quality into Renter and Owner Housing

Residential property amenities including school quality should be capitalized into both rent and property sale prices. Evidence of price and rent premiums for higher school quality is provided. The price premium for school quality for owners exceeds the premium for renters. The premiums paid by renters and owners vary with the likelihood the household directly uses school services, housing market conditions, whether the property is in an urban or suburban area and by the observed school quality in the years leading to the transaction. The larger price premium paid by owners is supported by enhanced liquidity and tempered price volatility for properties located in quality school districts.     

Can the Consumption–Wealth Ratio Predict Housing Returns? Evidence from OECD Countries

We use a representative consumer model to analyze the relation between the transitory deviations of consumption from its common trend with aggregate wealth and labor income, cay, and the housing risk premium. The evidence based on data for 15 OECD countries shows that, if financial and housing assets are seen as complements, investors will temporarily allow consumption to rise when they expect a rise in future housing returns. By contrast, if housing assets are treated as substitutes for financial assets, consumption will be reduced.     

Housing Return and Construction Cycles

This paper presents a general equilibrium model of the residential housing market. Within the model housing returns, housing construction, mortgage loan terms, and household maintenance behavior are all endogenous. These interacting elements tie expected housing returns to expected changes in family wealth. As a result: (1) families are credit constrained; (2) mortgage loan-to-value ratios can be used to forecast future housing returns; (3) developers acquire land when expected housing returns lie above the rate of interest and then develop when housing returns lie below. Thus, their holdings and construction decisions also forecast housing returns.     

House Search Duration in Hot and Cold Residential Markets

This study analyzes the determinants of house search duration of consumption‐driven buyers and individual investors in different housing market environments. We use data from surveys of recent house‐buyers in “hot” and “cold” housing markets in the 2000s housing bubble in California characterized by rising and declining residential house prices, respectively. The average house price and the surveyed geographical area are the same for both periods. Expected house ownership horizon is shown to be an important determinant of the realized search duration in addition to commonly considered housing and buyer characteristics. We find a statistically significant positive effect of it on the time until purchase in both housing price environments for consumption‐driven buyers. We also find that consumption‐driven house purchases were highly pronounced in coastal areas in the hot market and inland areas in the cold market. In contrast, long‐horizon investment activity leads that of consumption activity in those areas. Short‐horizon investors, on the other hand, concentrated their house search activity in inland areas in both housing market environments.     

Current Wealth and Tenure Choice

This paper argues that a central implication of tenure transition models is that the timing of a household's initial switch to ownership is particularly dependent upon its current net worth. In contrast, permanent income, largely derived from human capital, is assumed to be the dominant component of the relevant household budget constraint in conventional tenure choice models. These contending propositions are tested using a Canadian micro database. Consistent with the tenure transition approach, current nonhuman wealth is found to have the primary budgetary role in tenure mode decisions of young households.     

Estimating the Excess Returns to Housing at a Disaggregated Level: An Application to Sydney 2003–2011

The returns to housing are particularly important because this asset class makes up such a large fraction of household wealth. Yet they are not straightforward to calculate given both the heterogeneity in homes and the fact they sell only infrequently. We outline a methodology for constructing the excess returns to housing at a disaggregated level, essentially that of the individual home. Our approach explicitly takes account of the inherent risk in homeownership with regard to the capital gain or loss component of housing returns. This approach is applied to a rich data set for Sydney, Australia, from 2003Q1 to 2011Q2. Our findings indicate that the returns to housing are on average quite weak though they exhibit significant diversity across dwelling types and regions. Excess returns are also strongly influenced by assumptions regarding the level of risk aversion.     

Taxes and the User Cost of Capital for Owner-Occupied Housing

Owner-occupied housing is said to be favored in the tax code because the return on owner's equity is not taxed and mortgage interest and property taxes can be deducted in the computation of one's income tax base. The special tax treatment reduces the user cost of capital for owner-occupied housing.
The issue treated in this paper is the measurement of the tax rate to be employed in the user cost calculations. It is argued that different tax rates are appropriate for the tenure choice and quantity-demanded decisions, and that these values depend on the detailed tax position of the household and the method of finance. Average 1977 tax rates for household in different income ranges are calculated using the NBER TAXSIM microeconomic data file on individual tax returns.     

Mobile payment and rural household consumption: Evidence from China

Exploring effective measures to promote rural household consumption is a challenge for developing countries, where rural areas often face severe financial exclusion and undeveloped commercial services. In this research, the influence of mobile payment, a popular payment method emerging in recent years, on rural household consumption is assessed by adopting China Household Finance Survey of 2017. Estimation results under the instrumental variable method suggest that mobile payment has a statistically significant and facilitating effect on rural household consumption in China. This positive effect is attributed to the benefits of mobile payment in improving financial inclusion and the convenience of consumption activities for rural areas, which is verified by performing several disaggregated analyses in our study. This work provides new evidence for the increasing literature on the economic impact of financial technology and several enlightenments for developing countries to improve the quality of public life through information intervention policies.     

How family influence,socioemotional wealth,and competitive conditions shape new technology adoption

Research summary : In family businesses, investment decisions often involve both socioemotional wealth and economic considerations. Focusing on new technology adoption, we argue that multiple dimensions of socioemotional wealth contribute to complex effects within different types of family firms—depending on the level of family control—as well as in contrast to non‐family firms. Results based on cable TV operators from 1983 to 1987 confirm that family ownership correlates negatively with technology adoption, especially when family owners hold a minority rather than majority position. We also show contingencies based on performance improvements and competitive threats. Our arguments contribute new insights about the tensions between economic and socioemotional factors within minority family ownership that are absent from non‐family firms and more pronounced than in majority family firms. Managerial summary : We find evidence of greater reluctance toward new technology adoption among firms with minority family influence than majority family influence. This suggests that goals related to socioemotional wealth only partly explain the cautious decision‐making observed in family firms, with further caution arising from conflicting priorities between family and non‐family owners. Recent performance improvements help offset the reluctance to adopt new technology, albeit to a lesser degree among firms with minority family ownership. High levels of competitive threats also offset the reduction in new technology adoption, and contrary to expectations, to a greater extent among minority family firms. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Population density,migration, and the returns to human capital and land: Insights from Indonesia

Rapid population growth in many developing countries has raised concerns regarding food security and household welfare. To understand the consequences of population growth in a general equilibrium setting, we examine the dynamics of population density and its impacts on household outcomes using panel data from Indonesia, combined with district-level demographic data. Historically, Indonesia has adapted to land constraints through a mix of agricultural intensification, expansion of the land frontier, and non-farm diversification, with public policies playing a role in catalyzing all of these responses. In contemporary Indonesia we find that human capital determines the effect of increased population density on per capita household consumption expenditure. The effect of population density is positive if the average educational attainment is high (above junior high school), while it is negative otherwise. On the other hand, farmers with larger holdings maintain their advantage in farming regardless of population density. The paper concludes with some potential lessons for African countries from Indonesia’s more successful rural development experiences.     

Inflation,Taxes, and the Demand For Housing*

Inflation affects homeownership and housing adversely through the “real-payment tilt” of the conventional mortgage. Expectations of additional housing price appreciation, however, may induce households to invest in housing. This paper uses household data to estimate the demand for homeownership and housing, and it takes explicit notice of expectations of housing price appreciation. The results indicate for each 1% increase in the inflation rate that the conditional probability of purchase falls by 3%. Interest rate effects outweigh appreciation and tax effects. Given the decision to purchase, housing appreciation expectations do not have large effects on the amount purchased.     

Family Ownership and R&D Intensity in Small‐ and Medium‐Sized Firms

Research was largely consistent in predicting a negative relationship between family ownership and research and development (R&D) intensity until Chrisman and Patel, using a behavioral agency model (BAM), called this general assumption into question. They argued that publicly owned family firms typically invest less in R&D than nonfamily‐owned firms. This behavior may however be reversed if economic performance levels are below family aspirations or if family long‐term goals, such as pursuing strong transgenerational family control, are highly valued. While most researchers, like Chrisman and Patel, primarily focused on large listed firms, more research on the relationship between family ownership and R&D intensity in privately held small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) is required. This is because firm size can play an important role in understanding the innovation management behavior of firms. Building on the BAM perspective, in the present paper it is argued that Chrisman and Patel's results can be extended to the context of SMEs, albeit with one important specification: the relationship between family ownership and R&D intensity is likely to be contingent on the way the family has invested its wealth. Specifically, it is contended that in the context of SMEs, where goals are more fluid and mixed, when there is a high overlap between family wealth and firm equity (i.e., most of the family's wealth is invested in the firm) the relationship between family ownership and R&D intensity is negative because of the family owners' greater desire to protect their socioemotional wealth (SEW). However, if the overlap between the family's total wealth and single firm equity is low (i.e., firm equity is just a small part of the total family wealth), the relationship between family ownership and R&D intensity is positive as the low overlap between family wealth and firm equity reduces the family's loss aversion propensity. In such a situation, family ownership is likely to foster R&D intensity because of the long‐term orientation of family owners that increases the family firm's propensity to bear the risk of investing in R&D activities. The hypothesis is tested and confirmed in a study of 240 small‐ and medium‐sized firms based in Italy. The paper contributes to the literature in several ways. First, adding to the literature on innovation management and R&D intensity, it increases the understanding of what drives or inhibits R&D investments in SMEs when a family is involved in the ownership of the firm. This is particularly important because research on innovation management, as well as research on R&D intensity in family firms, is primarily focused on large firms and much less on SMEs. Second, the study complements arguments from prior research on the correlates of R&D intensity in large listed firms, showing that the BAM and SEW perspective offer a theoretical framework that is also able to illustrate the complex nature of innovation management in the context of SMEs. Third, the study contributes to research on the effects of family ownership on the general functioning of a firm. In particular, it provides new insights into how family ownership may affect R&D intensity.